Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Forman: Polymarket Called All Seven Swing States Before the Associated Press

Ben Forman · Ben Forman – Unlocking Blockchain's Potential (EP.441) · Apr 21, 2025 · at 30:51

Ben Forman, managing partner at crypto fund ParaFi Capital, highlights the predictive accuracy and speed of Polymarket relative to legacy media.

0:00 / 0:15exact quote · 16.0s

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“After the results started coming in from the seven swing states, Poly market reached 95% probability on each of those seven states, in some cases, many, many hours or a day or two ahead of when the Associated Press called the race.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket reached a 95% probability on each of the seven swing states, in some cases hours or days before the Associated Press called the race.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Historical pricing and election night reporting corroborate Ben Forman's statement. Polymarket's individual presidential winner markets for all seven battleground states (North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona) reached at least 95% implied probability for Donald Trump. Furthermore, several state contracts reached this threshold well in advance of the Associated Press calls: Michigan reached 95% hours before the AP called it at 12:54 p.m. EST on November 6, 2024, while Nevada and Arizona crossed 95% on November 6, roughly two to three days before the AP officially declared Nevada (November 8) and Arizona (November 9).

The AP officially called North Carolina (Nov 5, 11:18 p.m. EST), Georgia (Nov 6, 12:58 a.m. EST), Pennsylvania (Nov 6, 2:24 a.m. EST), Wisconsin (Nov 6, 5:34 a.m. EST), Michigan (Nov 6, 12:54 p.m. EST), Nevada (Nov 8, 12:15 a.m. EST), and Arizona (Nov 9, 9:21 p.m. EST).
Polymarket individual state contracts for all seven swing states reached >=95% probability for Donald Trump and eventually settled at 100%.
Individual state odds crossed 95% on Polymarket hours ahead of calls in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 to 3 days ahead of the AP calls for Nevada and Arizona.

Checked against

[1] wikipedia.org [2] cbsnews.com [3] ap.org [4] pbs.org [5] pbs.org [6] pbs.org [7] ap.org [8] orilliamatters.com

"AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins" "North Carolina" OR "Georgia" OR "Pennsylvania" OR "Wisconsin" OR "Michigan" OR "Nevada" OR "Arizona" "AP Race Call" "Donald Trump wins North Carolina" OR "Donald Trump wins Georgia" OR "Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania" OR "Donald Trump wins Wisconsin" OR "Donald Trump wins Michigan" OR "Donald Trump wins Nevada" OR "Donald Trump wins Arizona" Associated Press 2024 presidential election state call times swing states AP called Pennsylvania Georgia North Carolina Michigan Wisconsin Nevada Arizona 2024 election time "Polymarket" "swing states" "95%" "before the Associated Press" Polymarket swing states 2024 election hours before AP call "Calling the 2024 presidential race state by state" "wins Nevada" OR "wins Arizona" OR "wins Michigan"

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

Associated Press Polymarket

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