why aren't all 1,321 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 45 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jonathan Fishback predicts EstateSpace will reach $2M SaaS ARR in 2023
“We'll be about two million dollars in ARR by the end of next year, and it'll all be SAS.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yumekoro: Brandrex can reach 55,000 users and $1M+ in 15 months
“If we can't hit our targets, which I'm very sure we can, because we're hoping to get about, sorry, I have this on your documents and I can't recall, but about 55 or 60,000 people in 15 months, we're able to get raise our one point yeah, we're able to raise abo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Britton: Suzy expects to reach cash-flow positivity by Q4 2023
“And in that regard, we expect to be cashflow positive fourth quarter
Next year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Britton: Suzy will reach high $80M to low $90M ARR by late 2023
“We'll, we'll be in the high eighties to low nineties a year from now.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Britton: Suzy will likely IPO in two to three years at around $200M ARR
“So who knows what, when we'd be able to IPO, I would say likely in the next two to three years, but probably closer than we're at two hundred million ARR versus a hundred.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: SaaStr core business can scale from $25M to $100M revenue
“So I think our core business can do a hundred from 25 because it's just SAS from that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Keeley: Venture downturns will accelerate vertical SaaS adoption of embedded fintech
“Well, I think it's going to accelerate because let's say that there are venture dollars are reserved.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Avarell: Ember will '100%' surpass $100 million in GMV in 2022
“Oh yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Based on the current growth, a hundred percent.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rinse will find it nearly impossible to scale nationally like Sudshare
“It will be, you know, nearly impossible for them to really scale nationally like we have.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maropost's net dollar retention will exceed 150% this year
“Yeah, well this year will be well above a 150%.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Sakil: Industry-ready quantum computers are three to five years away
“Industry availability of these computers would take at least three years. We estimate three to five years”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanius expects Alternative to earn mid-20s IRR with a 10% net spread
“So we'll be able to earn probably mid, mid, mid twenties. And so our spread on our business is, you know, call it in a conservative manner, about 10%.”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Burnside projects LendingPoint will hit $600M in net revenue for 2022
“And we'll be around six hundred million this year.”
Prediction Held up
Porter: Salesloft will double ARR to $100M next year
“We'll hit a hundred million next year, sitting around the fifty million mark, growing a hundred percent, a 120% net expansion.”
Prediction Held up
Isilay: Cognism will reach $20M ARR by end of next year
“And we should finish this year at 11.5, and then next year, you know, I'm certain with the kind of metrics that we've got that we'll get, but we'll be at 20 at the end of next year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aris Verne: Alfinder will completely replace agency software stacks
“The moment we integrate into the any agencies, you know, environment, Alpha is going to be the only software that they're going to use.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Query.ai targets $15M in ARR by the end of 2023
“We'd like to be at, or as close to fifteen million in ARR by the end of 20, 23, as we can be, which would make us, you know, hyper growth kind of company.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Danilo: A free tier strategy beats competitors charging $10,000 upfront
“Raising venture funding is what allowed us to play that long game in terms of, like, having a free plan, which I think in the long run is what's going to allow us to win, because while everybody's going to be focused on charging 10,000 dollars for a product th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Symbl.ai will land million-dollar enterprise contracts by 2023
“Absolutely. Super bullish about it. And actually talking to a few customers about that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Latka: Major stadiums will never mandate digital wallets for entry
“So like, how do you convince FedEx field and land over Maryland where the Washington football team plays to announce ahead of the game that you must bring your bindle wallet on your phone and show it at the entry. They're never going to do that because it's go…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind will probably go public, potentially in 2022 or 2023
“Because at some point it could be next year, it could be early at 23, whenever, whenever, whenever we feel it's appropriate. Yeah. We're probably going to be a public company at some point and something we're looking forward to.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yampolskiy: SecurityScorecard will easily surpass $100M ARR in 2022
“Next year we plan to continue the same growth rate. So we're going, and more. So we're going to by far surpass, you know, the hundred plus next year and beyond. We actually anticipate to be able to grow faster next year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Flock Freight is preparing for an IPO in two to three years
“This business is headed to the public markets. We're not yet ready to hire a banker. We're not yet ready to start talking to the exchanges. So it's, I wouldn't quite call us pre-IPO, but we're pre-pre-IPO, meaning find me people that can educate me on the stor…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Purwar: 2020s Will Experience Climate-Induced Depression Similar to 1930s
“I was really interested in doing a PhD in economics on climate change induced financial depression, and I was working with Professor Gary Gordon in Yale, so I'm a Yale graduate in the master's program, and I really, really wanted to do that because I was obses…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sohn predicts Recruiter.com will reach profitability by early 2022
“And so we're trying to do this in a balanced fashion, hit profitability, and we'll, we'll get there early in 22.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sohn: The job hopper economy and high quit rates are permanent
“We saw a 4.3 million people quit in August. That is not going away. We are in a new economy. I call it the job hopper economy.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Latka: Moving early on Zoom's app store can build a $100M business
“Zoom is the opposite. It's so brand new. If you move quick, you rank high, you dominate that spot for the next 10 years, and you build a hundred million dollar business pretty, pretty quick.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
De la Nuez predicts UserZoom will exceed $100M ARR by Q1 2022
“I think we will be actually, we will be over a hundred million by Q one is what we're anticipating.
Yeah.
That would be, I would be surprised if we don't do that.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2041
Smith: Fossil fuels will provide 80% of energy for 20 more years
“80% or more of our energy comes from fossil fuels and will in spite of all the focus on renewables for the next 20 years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2026
RevGenius Founder Jared Robin: IPO Is the Ultimate Goal
“IPO is the goal. Like no matter how stupid that sounds, like that's where we're going.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Latka predicts ZoomInfo, Gong, or SalesLoft will acquire RevGenius by 2023
“Guys, mark my words. RevGenius will sell for a very large number in the next two years. Jared doesn't know it yet, but like Henry at ZoomInfo and like Amit from Gonger, I'm going to compete like hell to take, or Kyle from SalesOff.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siozos: Corporate training will never return to multi-hour hotel seminars
“There is no future, at least in the next two, three, four years, without COVID, That the business that wants to train 400 employees will get them into a hotel for five hours of PowerPoint. There will be a riot.”
Prediction Held up
Feig predicts Merge will break a $1M run rate in 2021
“End of the year, by the end of the year.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Freightos projects an 800% year-over-year increase in gross bookings for 2021
“Yeah, we should grow 800% in the bookings.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Holmes: Largest customer could generate over $100M annually for Resonant
“We believe that customer has the potential to generate over a hundred million dollars annually for Resonant you know, as they get to full volume on delivering filters into the five G space.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2024
Holland Expects Next Funding Round to Value SalesScreen North of $120M
“Right now you know, it's definitely going to be north of a hundred and twelve million, hundred and twenty million dollars.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grain is on track to hit $1M ARR by end of 2021
“Oh, absolutely. I mean, for us, the growth rate is continuing to grow and increase. We've just been, just begun to tap the market. And so we're absolutely on track for that, that being our goal this year.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Alfonso de la Nuez Predicts UserZoom Will Reach $1B Valuation Soon
“No, I don't, I think we'll get there pretty soon. I'm very confident, and it's very exciting, of course, but no, we're not there yet.”
Prediction Held up
Prediction (Apr 2021): COVID-19 cases will drop very quickly
“COVID is going to drop obviously very quickly over the next couple of months.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ezra: Granulate will finish 2021 with over 6x revenue growth
“We need to keep hammering on that, and we'll end the year over six times last year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
SEC will not allow unregulated private company token trading in US
“Like, the SEC isn't going to allow that to happen, at least in America.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Skeptical anyone will build a true, high-valuation lending marketplace
“I'm very skeptical that anyone over time is going to build that marketplace in a way that it looks like a true marketplace in a way that marketplaces typically get high valuations by having, by consolidating fragmented supply and demand.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dragunov: Batch Products will become a billion-dollar brand in five years
“We're growing a billion dollar company brand in the next five years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crowley: Replacing all vehicles with new EVs will take ~100 years
“There's over 1.4 billion vehicles in the world.
There's over sixty million new vehicles every year.
So if we're going to wait for all of them to become Teslas, it's going to take about a hundred years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crowley projects EV division will jump from $20M to $70M revenue
“Like I can disclose in cars, cars will do Well, next year is easier. Cars will do about seventy million next year. This year it'll do, hard to tell with the pandemic, but it'll probably do something like 15 or 20.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crowley: Bundled EV and energy service to generate $35K per vehicle
“So the recurring income On that is it looks like it's going to be everything combined. It looks like it's going to be about 35,000 bucks per vehicle per year all in.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Powers: Physna will hit at least $5M ARR by end of 2019
“We should be at least at about five million recurring annual revenue at the end of 2019.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zekitz: airtrafficcontrol.io will exceed $1M ARR in year one
“Oh, a hundred percent. Yeah, I have absolutely no doubt that we'll be over a million in year one.”