Opinion
Caldbeck: Early fintech startups were marketing companies relying purely on FICO
“First I think an issue with a lot of the kind of FinTech one point O companies was there actually isn't any technology behind them. They're marketing companies. And so like how, without talking about any one company and specifically like how many of them would…”
Opinion
Caldbeck claims VCs profit by convincing founders to sacrifice everything
“VCs in general, as a macro point tend to make money by convincing entrepreneurs to give up everything.”
Insight
Caldbeck: Consumer investors frequently ignore data in favor of personal taste
“Consumer investors would always like extrapolate their preferences on on, on the company or sorry, on the investment decision. And I don't like the taste of us. No one will like the taste regardless of the data. And what they miss is that the data was identify…”
Opinion
Caldbeck: Investors backing negative-margin lending fintechs are making massive mistakes
“But you're kind of pricing it to perfection at that point where, you know, if the core product is zero margin and I, by the way, you're right, technically negative margin. It is negative margin. Then like, you really got to believe a lot from those ancillary p…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VCs warned Caldbeck his burnout post would make him 'dead to Sequoia'
“And there were three VCs who I did not mention. I love these people, but I did not mention them. And the three VCs said Hey, look, love it. It's very emotional. You should know you will be dead to Sequoia. When you write this, you'll be dead to a VC”
Insight
Caldbeck: Strategy consultants lack accountability because they don't live with recommendations
“But I think the downside is whatever your recommendation is, you don't have to live with the results. You know, the famous McKinsey study from the eighties that gave, I think it was AT&T, the advice that the entire cell phone market would never be more than a …”
Disclosure
CircleUp's top-decile equity team had zero prior deal-lead experience
“I think the most exciting thing about that technology or sorry, the fund is that no one on that team ever led a deal before joining circle up.”
Disclosure
Caldbeck hid his cancer diagnosis from the CircleUp team until 2021
“I didn't feel like I could do that with the team. I felt like that team didn't know that I had cancer. They found out earlier this year when I told them before the blog post. But they, the board knew that I had cancer and they let me just be myself.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Skeptical anyone will build a true, high-valuation lending marketplace
“I'm very skeptical that anyone over time is going to build that marketplace in a way that it looks like a true marketplace in a way that marketplaces typically get high valuations by having, by consolidating fragmented supply and demand.”
Insight
Caldbeck: Far more companies should take credit rather than equity
“I think the reason you wouldn't want to do that is because credit is such a bigger Opportunity than equity. There's just more companies that should take credit than should take equity.”
Disclosure
Caldbeck admits consumer products was never a personal passion
“Consumer was and is not, consumer products was and is not a passion for me, frankly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Almost no consumer investment firms invest below $10M-$15M revenue
“There's hundreds of investment firms around the country that love consumer and retail, almost none of them will invest below 10 or fifteen million dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: CPG founders take an average of 8 to 12 months to raise capital
“In that industry, because there's no Silicon Valley, it takes on average eight to 12 months to raise capital.”
Insight
Caldbeck: The multi-year private market feedback loop limits repeat marketplace investing
“In the private markets, that feedback loop is much, much longer. You won't get your money back for years. And you can't really see the performance nearly as granularly, right? And it's just choppier. So that feedback loop leads investors to invest once or mayb…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A CircleUp investor made a 109x return on Beyond Meat
“When Beyond Meat went public one of their investors had met Beyond Meat through us, and he responded to the original introduction that we facilitated. And he responded to that email when they went public and said, thanks for this intro... And he told us that h…”
Opinion
Caldbeck believes CircleUp's equity fund achieved top decile venture returns
“I think it was a top decile fund amongst all venture, by the way, not just consumer.”
Insight
Caldbeck: Retail marketplace investors proved less sticky than institutions
“Marketplace model, while everyone originally thought it would be stickier, turns out people writing 1000 dollar checks is not stickier than a large institution large endowment or whatnot.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Most venture funds have 50% to 60% net contribution margins
“Most venture funds kind of like 50 to 60% net contribution margin. I mean, these things mint money, like it's an unbelievable profit pool.”
Assertion Supported
Caldbeck: Consumer PE averaged 22% IRR over 15 years with half tech's volatility
“According to Cambridge associates, it's averaged a 22% IRR for 15 years, never negative vintage and half the volatility of tech.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Earned more in private equity than as CircleUp CEO
“More than I more, more, more than I make per year now, frankly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Worked under 40 hours weekly at Encore Consumer Capital
“The hours were great. I worked less than 40 hours a week, and I probably was on ESPN.com 10 times a day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: CircleUp had 14 straight record growth months before pivoting
“What I should mention is for 14 months or so in a row before we pivoted, ending two or three months before we pivoted, each month was a record month.”
