why aren't all 15,480 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 52 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Martin: Remote workers are on average 13% more productive than on-premise peers
“On average, remote workers are 13% more productive than their on premise counterparts.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Suski: Offering 7-Day Free Trial Did Not Increase Surfer's Conversion Rate
“And then we thought, yeah, maybe it's a good idea to let people try Surfer without, you know, paying up front 15, 59 dollars just for, like, a credit card details. We'll charge them after seven days. That's probably going to make the conversion much higher. An…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Messer: 5% of global B2B economy passes through Collective[i] daily
“We usually just disclosed about five percent of the globe's B to B economy is passing through us every day.”
Assertion Supported
Carpel: Founders can use Founderpath debt to buy personal real estate
“Unlock the wealth, take the money, and put that into other things. Again, the S&P 500 a commercial building, buy a house for your mom, buy a house for yourself all permissible and all doable with this product.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Allouche defaulted on Amex to preserve runway, dropping credit to 500
“American Express. Not essential. Got a phone call every day. Sir, are you gonna pay your debt? No. I'm not gonna pay a dollar of my debt. My credit score went down to 500.”
Assertion Partly supported
EstateSpace secured $1M in SBA COVID relief despite mass layoffs
“COVID, it gave us almost a million dollars in free money, so We had a lot of people pre-COVID. We let them all go, but the way that they looked, the SBA looked at that was that, okay, they counted us for the 2018, 2019 time when we had a lot of employees, so w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benson: Lighter Capital required full 4-year interest on early exit
“They had a term that if we wanted to exit the loan early, like after two years, it was a four-year loan, if we want to pay it off after two years and take our money somewhere else, We had to pay them all the interest as if we had been there for four years”
Assertion Supported
A top expense app's 'smart scanning' was secretly powered by offshore humans
“Or there's another company, a very popular expense company that allows employees to expense receipts. And they would have a feature called a smart scanning feature where you could take a picture of the receipt and then it would extract. But that wasn't a smart…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Miller: Awareness Technologies' new owners defaulted on debt payments in 2022
“They haven't made a bank payment or an interest payment since March, and they might not for quite a while.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fuller: 65% of supply chain news is sourced from FreightWaves
“65% of supply chain content is originally sourced from FreightWave. So if you're reading Times, you're reading it on the Washington Post, Perhaps you're reading it in Bloomberg. A lot of that data material actually gets originally sourced through our data and …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Joe Long claims competitor CompuFloor lost six key staff in 18 months
“So literally, CompuFloor is failing across its entire customer base. They've had three project managers who've left over the last 18 months. Three programmer left. So they've they're struggling.”
Assertion Supported
BNPL Network Take Rates Fall Far Below 3% to 5%
“No, it's certainly not three to five percent, right? ... It's much less, right? If you look on the payment space, right? When a merchant is typically paying in the U S somewhere between 1.6 to A critical transaction, right? This cost would include the issuing …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Prospective 2012 buyers cut DiscoverOrg's acquisition offer in half after diligence
“These guys retraded me right at the end. They said, oh, come down to San Francisco, have lunch with us. So I came down to San Francisco, and they were like, yeah, you know, there's some things in diligence we didn't like, and so we're gonna cut the deal in hal…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
The DOJ held RainKing's antitrust review to the final decision deadline
“When we made the acquisition of Rain King, we actually, you have to get antitrust approval. And so we went, and the regular, the regulators didn't love the ranking acquisition because they felt very similar, two very similar companies, and so we actually went …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
WhatConverts Converts 70% of Free Trial Users Into Paying Customers
“And in one area that has really helped is of companies that start with us, 70% that start with a free trial, they become customers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Total India and SE Asia MarTech market is only $150M to $200M
“So the challenge for us is that the Indian market is actually quite small, even though the customer base is very large companies don't pay a lot of money yet. So the email market plus the martech business put together would probably be just about 150 odd milli…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Solomon: Founders selling for $150M often walk away with only $300k
“I've seen a lot of people sell for one hundred and fifty million bucks and walk away with like 300 grand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Medina: Goldman Sachs tells companies $200M ARR is new IPO baseline
“200 is a new 100. So you can't, it's no longer a hundred... That's what Goldman is telling everybody.”
Assertion Supported
Crashlytics intentionally broke developer builds to force viral team adoption
“And when a developer, sorry, when a developer started using it, they actually put it in their app and we broke their build in the nicest way possible so that every other engineer on their team would find out about Crashlytics and then start using it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
CrawlQ netted only $110k from $650k in gross AppSumo sales
“So a 110 K is a net net that came to us after all the commissions from Epsom.”
Assertion Contradicted
Miles: Salad is the world's fourth largest supercomputer
“We're now the world's fourth largest supercomputer.”
Assertion Supported
Miles: Salad's compute costs one-fifth of AWS spot instances
“The cost of our compute is around one fifth, again, per teraflop per hour of an AWS spot instance.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind can increase client business by 20% within a year
“If someone uses our full series, we can increase the business by 20%. And that's like a real number. It's like within a year, like we can increase almost any business within 20%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yampolskiy: BitSight generates ~$100M ARR, growing at barely 20%
“Those guys are going to do about a hundred million in ARR, and they're growing kind of barely at 20%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yampolskiy: SecurityScorecard beats BitSight 70% of the time in bake-offs
“Well, look, we beat them. We beat them. 70% of the time in a big off.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David Yang: Yva.ai can predict employee resignations before decisions are made
“This technology can predict employees' resignation even before employees actually decided to resign.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mehrguth: 50% of LinkedIn Industry Targeting Data Is Inaccurate
“So like 99.9% of people who advertise on LinkedIn use the industries to target. You know, I'm talking about when you're running a LinkedIn ad and it's like industry computer software. What I found is 50% of that data is incorrect. And so most of our clients co…”
Assertion Contradicted
O'Shull: Derive is the only fleet software writing to vehicle ECUs
“And that's really the secret sauce in the enterprise fleet management space. Nobody's doing that. Everybody's reading from the ECU to do telematics and all that kind of stuff. Nobody is really writing back to it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JazzHR Customers Stay for Roughly 10 Years on Average
“To bring in a customer who's going to stay with us for 10 years-ish on average, it's more, with that, through that lens, it's more than worth the investment.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Holmes: Resonant Earns 7% to 15% Royalty Rates, Beating Peers
“If you look at the largest licenses, Licensors of technology, companies like Arm, Tesra, Siva, and whatnot, they're very happy to get one to two percent royalty. We're getting on average seven to 15% royalty”
Assertion Supported
Competitor think-cell generates over $100 million in annual revenue
“Sure let's say I had some other data points which reconfirmed my initial assumption, so I'm pretty confident that they're making over a hundred million a year, actually way over that.”
Assertion Supported
Berry: ConvertKit is far ahead of Mailchimp's eight-year growth curve
“When I look at the curve that I'm on with ConvertKit, and if, and the curve that MailChimp did, if we were to overlay those two, ConvertKit is far ahead. Like if we put the start date of the two of them, ConvertKit is far ahead on that curve than MailChimp was…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VCs warned Caldbeck his burnout post would make him 'dead to Sequoia'
“And there were three VCs who I did not mention. I love these people, but I did not mention them. And the three VCs said Hey, look, love it. It's very emotional. You should know you will be dead to Sequoia. When you write this, you'll be dead to a VC”
Assertion Contradicted
McKelvey: Apple kicked VeriFone out of Apple Stores after Square attack
“He ended up upsetting Apple, and Apple kicked them out of the Apple store.”
Assertion Supported
Crowley: A single commercial EV can earn $7,000 annually supporting grids
“And then the final one, which is the real secret sauce, is a vehicle can, you can get paid about 7000 bucks a year For the vehicle supporting the grid, just one vehicle.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Premise Data generated no commercial revenue from 2012 to 2018
“Between 25, 20 12, 20 13, up to 20 18, when I joined, there was really no commercial activity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
BrandOverflow's five-person team in Pakistan costs just $1,000 to $2,000 monthly
“It's around a thousand to 2000 dollars a month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Flock Freight projects 50% margins versus the industry average of 10-12%
“Then we have for freight, like 50% margin potential in an industry that supports like 10 to 12. So we have many times a higher margin potential than anybody ever in freight before because of this financial arbitrage that gets unlocked.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
FanDuel founders were barred from taking secondary liquidity during KKR round
“There was no secondary. The founders were not allowed to take secondary.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chowdhury: Brands Pay $1,400 per Shot for Standard Influencer Product Photos
“30% of the influencer content transactions that are happening now are actually just for your standard kind of pack shots or flat lay type shots, like that influencer bedroom, because brands don't know where to go. And they're paying on average 1400 dollars per…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pete Lamson: JazzHR saw record customer job postings in July 2020
“In fact, we have had the most jobs posted, most new jobs posted with by Jazz HR's customers in the history of our company with just the past month in July.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jackson: One-Third of Uber Drivers Live at or Below Poverty Line
“Meanwhile, a third of all Uber drivers live at or below the poverty line.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schroeder: Collapsed Zirtual had 400 assistants effectively billing at 75% capacity
“They had 400 people that were full-time billing at 75% capacity. You work that backward, that means they have a hundred people billing at zero percent capacity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Criteo's retargeting only lifts client revenue by 0.5%
“And for example, like say retargeting Criteo's whole business. Which they're a multi-billion dollar company. They only increased around about a half percent.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walker: Dialpad speech AI matches Google's enhanced ASR benchmark
“Like I, we benchmark against Google's, Google speech ASR. We can, we benchmark against their standard and their enhanced. And we exceed their standard. We're right at their enhanced levels.”
Assertion Supported
Roy: A 10% rise in gender equity drives 1-2% revenue growth
“We actually did research across 4000 companies in 29 countries, and what we found was that for every 10% increase in gender equity in companies, there's a one to two percent increase in revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Latka: Ople Burns More Cash Monthly Than Its Total Annual Revenue
“You're burning in a month more than what your total revenue annual run rate is right now.”
Assertion Supported
Basic income trials show recipients invest in education and family care
“And there is literally no evidence to support that. All the evidence from all the basic income trials that have ever been run are that people like, wow, I can take better care of myself. I can invest in education. I can take better care of my family. Of my fri…”