| 400% | “400%” | Srivastava: Baseten Maintains 400% Annual NDR and Zero Top-30 Customer Churn | Tuhin Srivastava | May 1, 2026 | — |
| 400% | “400%” | Zipline is projected to increase its flight volume by 400% in 2023 | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | Didn’t hold up |
| 180% | “180%” | Gil: GPT-4 equivalent inference costs dropped 180x over 18 months | Elad Gil | Feb 7, 2025 | Supported |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Feldman: Cerebras is the only pure-play public AI company | Andrew Feldman | May 21, 2026 | Supported |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Deming: Cryobiology uniquely allows swapping biological complexity for engineering difficulty | Laura Deming | Jan 29, 2026 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Huang: Radiology software is 100% AI-powered, but radiologist headcount grew | Jensen Huang | Jan 8, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 100% | “100%” | Gil: Waymo and Tesla Autonomous Driving Will Dominate 2026 | Elad Gil | Dec 19, 2025 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Dohmke: Improved model reasoning will push SWE-bench scores near 100% | Thomas Dohmke | Mar 13, 2025 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | AI Will Eventually Run Experiments, but Scaling Will Take Many Years | Aidan Gomez | Nov 21, 2024 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Dolgov: Swiss Re study showed 100% bodily injury claim reduction for Waymo | Dmitri Dolgov | Oct 24, 2024 | Supported |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Tech companies pivoted to AI because their existing product roadmaps sucked | Matt MacInnis | Sep 25, 2024 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Chen: Covariant's average warehouse customer has over 100% annual turnover | Peter Chen | Jan 24, 2024 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Schimpf: Ukraine would 100% strike deep into Russia if given tools | Brian Schimpf | Jun 1, 2023 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Ramaswamy: Google Gave Over 100 Percent Rev Share to Early Partners | Sridhar Ramaswamy | Apr 25, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Armstrong: Coinbase prediction markets reached ~$100M run rate within months | Brian Armstrong | Sep 10, 2026 | Supported |
| 99% | “99%” | Srivastava: AI-Native Startups Represent 99% of Total Inference Call Volume | Tuhin Srivastava | May 1, 2026 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Liemandt: Optimal learning occurs at 80% to 85% student accuracy | Joe Liemandt | Sep 25, 2025 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Alidoust: Single-cell AI performance holds even after 99% data downsampling | Nima Alidoust | Feb 25, 2025 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Steinberger: 99% of users wouldn't notice Gemini 4 replacing 1.5 Pro | Eric Steinberger | Aug 30, 2024 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Liberty: High 90s Percentage of OSS Code Comes From Vendor Employees | Edo Liberty | Feb 22, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 99% | “99%” | Graveley: Traditional UIs enforce structured flows, whereas text interfaces invite erratic goal changes | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Huang: For 25 years, the consensus favoring general-purpose computing was right | Jensen Huang | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 98% | “98%” | Clerico: 98% of Climate Capital Goes to Mitigation, Only 2% to Resilience | Bill Clerico | Jan 23, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 95% | “95%” | Srivastava: 95% of Tokens on Baseten Run on Custom Modified Models | Tuhin Srivastava | May 1, 2026 | — |
| 95% | “95%” | Coates: AI agents reach 75% in 10 minutes, but 95% is brutal | Glen Coates | Jan 31, 2024 | — |
| 95% | “95%” | Biewald: 95% Of ML Developers Are Using OpenAI's GPT Models | Lukas Biewald | Aug 3, 2023 | — |
| 95% | “95%” | Koller: 95% of all drug discovery programs fail | Daphne Koller | May 19, 2023 | Supported |
| 93.5% | “93.5%” | Staniszewski: ElevenLabs' Scribe v2 hits 93.5% accuracy under 150ms latency | Mati Staniszewski | Dec 11, 2025 | Supported |
| 90% | “90%” | McDermott: AI agents manage 90% of ServiceNow's customer service cases | Bill McDermott | Apr 17, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Huang: OpenEvidence operates at 90% gross margins | Jensen Huang | Jan 8, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Dell: 90% of power cost reduction comes from tech, 10% from capital | Zach Dell | Oct 15, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Wickramasekara: 90% of vertical AI is workflow translation and building trust | Sajith Wickramasekara | Nov 13, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Arora predicts 80% to 90% of customer support eliminated in 2-5 years | Nikesh Arora | Oct 2, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Liemandt: 90% of Students Given ChatGPT in School Will Use It to Cheat | Joe Liemandt | Sep 25, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Helberg: US relies 90% on Chinese minerals and Taiwanese semiconductors | Jacob Helberg | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 90% | “90%” | Jain: About 90% of enterprise knowledge is private within a company | Arvind Jain | May 15, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Jain: Workers will have personal AI teams performing 90% of their work | Arvind Jain | May 15, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | McKinzie: Over 90% of internet clock images show 10:10, biasing vision models | Brandon McKinzie | May 1, 2025 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Steinberger: AI coding tool adoption will be a bimodal step-function | Eric Steinberger | Aug 30, 2024 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Atiyeh: Ramp uses GPT-4o Mini for 90% of its production AI tasks | Karim Atiyeh | Aug 15, 2024 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Noon: Generative AI solves the cybersecurity skills shortage for pennies | Ryan Noon | Oct 26, 2023 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Beyang Liu: Keyword Search Solves Over 90% of RAG Retrieval | Beyang Liu | Jan 18, 2024 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Liu: Coding agent chains suffer compounding failure from sub-90% step fidelity | Beyang Liu | Jan 18, 2024 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Gil: 90% of computing experimentation collapses back to scaling original architecture | Elad Gil | Dec 14, 2023 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Haas: 80% to 90% of Arm engineers use AI daily | Rene Haas | Sep 3, 2026 | — |
| 89% | “89%” | Arora: 89% of cyberattacks happen because of credential theft | Nikesh Arora | Oct 2, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 88% | “88%” | Gil: o1-equivalent model inference costs dropped 88x in 11 months | Elad Gil | Feb 19, 2026 | Supported |
| 88% | “88%” | Armstrong: 88% of Coinbase revenue comes from non-Bitcoin trading | Brian Armstrong | Sep 10, 2026 | Supported |
| 85% | “85%” | Liemandt: Optimal learning occurs at 80% to 85% student accuracy | Joe Liemandt | Sep 25, 2025 | — |
| 85% | “85%” | Garman estimates 85% of enterprise workloads still run on-premise | Matt Garman | Aug 29, 2024 | — |
| 83% | “83%” | Giving users an 83% success rate on exercises maximizes learner enjoyment | Luis von Ahn | May 8, 2025 | — |
| 82% | “82%” | Younis: Applied Intuition is approximately 82% software engineers | Qasar Younis | Jun 17, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Taubman: 80% of Long Lake's AI platform infrastructure is shared across verticals | Alexander Taubman | May 11, 2026 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Prince: 80% of major AI companies are Cloudflare customers | Matthew Prince | Aug 7, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Laskin: Engineers spend 80% of their time comprehending complex systems | Misha Laskin | Jul 17, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Conrad: Over 80% of Rippling's engineering team focuses on existing products | Parker Conrad | Jul 10, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Rao: Abridge plans to allocate 80% of funding to R&D | Dr. Shiv Rao | Mar 27, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Vogt: Autonomous vehicle skepticism dropped from ~80% to ~20% after one ride | Kyle Vogt | Feb 20, 2025 | — |
| 80% | “eighty percent” | Davis: Large-scale GPU pre-training utilization is sub-80% and often below 50% | Jared Quincy Davis | Aug 22, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Franceschi: Brex hit an 80% AI suggestion acceptance rate in accounting | Pedro Franceschi | Aug 8, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Scott Wu: AI will enable software engineers to do 5x more | Scott Wu | May 2, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Gil: Bundlers Like Rippling Win Without Covering Every Feature Edge Case | Elad Gil | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Zhao: 80% of Notion designers know how to code | Ivan Zhao | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Elad Gil: AI converts low-margin services spend into high-margin software revenue | Elad Gil | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Graveley: Copilot writes 80% of code for top power users | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Srinivas: Subscription search fails if incumbents offer an 80%-good free tier | Aravind Srinivas | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 76% | “76%” | Armstrong: 76% of agentic commerce transactions are under 30 cents | Brian Armstrong | Sep 10, 2026 | — |
| 75% | “75%” | Vogt: AV labor costs hit diminishing returns at 25% remote assistance | Kyle Vogt | Feb 20, 2025 | — |
| 75% | “75%” | Coates: AI agents reach 75% in 10 minutes, but 95% is brutal | Glen Coates | Jan 31, 2024 | — |
| 75% | “75%” | Feldman: Cerebras is About 75% Software | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Tokmak: Over 70% of Netic's enterprise customers use AI-first interactions | Melisa Tokmak | Jul 31, 2026 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Zhang: Decagon cuts enterprise contact center costs by 60% to 70% | Jesse Zhang | Sep 18, 2025 | Supported |
| 70% | “70%” | Gil: Many big tech companies could shrink by 70% and improve | Elad Gil | Aug 21, 2025 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Chai filtered benchmark targets to under 70% identity from training data | Joshua Meier | Jul 3, 2025 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Dent: Chai achieved 70% success rate on mini protein binder designs | Jack Dent | Jul 3, 2025 | Supported |
| 70% | “70%” | Tan: About 70% of current Y Combinator batch companies are AI-centric | Garry Tan | May 23, 2024 | Supported |
| 66% | “66%” | Liemandt: Optimal learning occurs at 80% to 85% student accuracy | Joe Liemandt | Sep 25, 2025 | — |
| 65% | “65%” | Nikesh Arora: Sub-$1B Enterprise Companies Spend 50-65% on Sales and Marketing | Nikesh Arora | Oct 2, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 65% | “65%” | Helberg: Europe's share of global GDP collapsed from 65% to 15% | Jacob Helberg | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 60% | “60%” | Stein says an unmapped AWS customer lost data to ransomware | Gonen Stein | Aug 27, 2026 | — |
| 60% | “60%” | Helberg: Global defense spending reached a record $2.7 trillion this year | Jacob Helberg | Aug 28, 2025 | Supported |
| 60% | “60%” | Rao: Stanford survey shows Abridge cuts clinician burnout by 50% | Dr. Shiv Rao | Mar 27, 2025 | Supported |
| 60% | “60%” | Gandhi: Enterprise AI is 60% model work and 40% legacy integration | Kawal Gandhi | Oct 19, 2023 | — |
| 60% | “60%” | Graveley: GitHub Copilot's in-the-wild test pass rate rose from under 10% to over 60% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 55% | “55%” | Dohmke: Copilot yields 25-28% end-to-end developer productivity gains | Thomas Dohmke | Mar 13, 2025 | Supported |
| 55% | “55%” | Guo: Trump at 55% election odds is underpriced | Sarah Guo | Oct 31, 2024 | — |
| 55% | “55%” | Mansour: Prediction market odds reflect win probabilities, not poll margins | Tarek Mansour | Oct 31, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Fang: 50% of Ask DoorDash Restaurant Orders Are From New Places | Andy Fang | Jul 23, 2026 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Autonomous coding agents make up over 50% of enterprise AI usage | Maxim Bar Kogan | May 28, 2026 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Deming: Immunotherapy raised metastatic melanoma ten-year survival to over 50 percent | Laura Deming | Jan 29, 2026 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Gil: Top eight tech firms total $23T and over 50% of S&P | Elad Gil | Feb 19, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 50% | “50%” | ElevenLabs reached $300M ARR, split evenly between self-serve and enterprise | Mati Staniszewski | Dec 11, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Guo: Open Evidence reaches 50% of US doctors while keeping headcount minimal | Sarah Guo | Aug 21, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Meier: Chai-2 achieved a 50% success rate on tested targets | Joshua Meier | Jul 3, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Ben Mann defines transformative AI by the 'Economic Turing Test' | Ben Mann | Jun 12, 2025 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Rao: Stanford survey shows Abridge cuts clinician burnout by 50% | Dr. Shiv Rao | Mar 27, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Vogt: AV labor costs hit diminishing returns at 25% remote assistance | Kyle Vogt | Feb 20, 2025 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Clerico: Utilities Cause 11% of Ignitions but 50% of Wildfire Damage | Bill Clerico | Jan 23, 2025 | Supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Mansour: Half of Kalshi's markets originate from user submissions | Tarek Mansour | Oct 31, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Goyal: 50% of enterprise AI production use cases involve RAG | Ankur Goyal | Oct 8, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Davis: Large-scale GPU pre-training utilization is sub-80% and often below 50% | Jared Quincy Davis | Aug 22, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Vinyals predicts pre-training compute will drop to ~50% as RL expands | Oriol Vinyals | Aug 1, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Liberty: RAG Over Internet Data Reduces LLM Hallucinations by 50% | Edo Liberty | Feb 22, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Gil: Bundlers Like Rippling Win Without Covering Every Feature Edge Case | Elad Gil | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Masad: Replit users see 30% to 50% productivity boost on coding | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Masad: Programmers will act like managers of AI within 3-5 years | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Masad: Replit data delivered a 50% improvement over open-source model | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Graveley: GitHub Copilot weekly cohort retention stayed above 50% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 46% | “46%” | Clerico: WUI housing units have increased by ~46% since 1980 | Bill Clerico | Jan 23, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 45% | “45%” | Autonomous coding agents make up over 50% of enterprise AI usage | Maxim Bar Kogan | May 28, 2026 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Fang: Ask DoorDash Drives 40% Larger Grocery Basket Sizes | Andy Fang | Jul 23, 2026 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Fogel: Booking Holdings repurchased roughly 40% of shares over 12 years | Glenn Fogel | Jul 9, 2026 | Supported |
| 40% | “40%” | Taubman: 30-40% AI efficiency gives service businesses software-like incremental margins | Alexander Taubman | May 11, 2026 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Nadler: OpenEvidence is used daily by 40% of US doctors | Daniel Nadler | Sep 5, 2025 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Gil: Biotech VC incubations are designed to flip to pharma pipelines | Elad Gil | May 29, 2025 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Clerico: U.S. Forest Service spends 40% of budget, $250M, on planning | Bill Clerico | Jan 23, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 40% | “40%” | Gandhi: Enterprise AI is 60% model work and 40% legacy integration | Kawal Gandhi | Oct 19, 2023 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Delangue: Hugging Face dedicates 30% to 40% of effort to exploration | Clem Delangue | May 19, 2023 | — |
| 38% | “38%” | Lip-Bu Tan reports 159 IPOs, 126 M&A exits across his investment career | Lip-Bu Tan | Jun 18, 2026 | — |
| 36.6% | “36.6%” | Davis: Compound AI approach increased prime factorization accuracy from 3.7% to 36.6% | Jared Quincy Davis | Aug 22, 2024 | Supported |
| 34% | “34%” | Knoop: ARC-AGI benchmark performance only moved from 20% to 34% in four years | Mike Knoop | Jun 11, 2024 | Supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Srivastava: 1,024 B200s Require 3-5 Year Contracts and 20-30% Prepay | Tuhin Srivastava | May 1, 2026 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Helberg: US Accounts for 20% to 30% of Global Consumption | Jacob Helberg | May 14, 2026 | Supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Michael: Autonomous systems could consume 30% of defense budget within 10 years | Emil Michael | Jan 15, 2026 | Open |
| 30% | “30%” | Gil: Tech could reach 15% to 30% of US GDP by 2035 | Elad Gil | Feb 19, 2026 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Nikesh Arora: Sub-$1B Enterprise Companies Spend 50-65% on Sales and Marketing | Nikesh Arora | Oct 2, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Hendrycks: Over 30% of Staff at Some Top AI Labs Are Chinese Nationals | Dan Hendrycks | Mar 5, 2025 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Vogt: Autonomous vehicle skepticism dropped from ~80% to ~20% after one ride | Kyle Vogt | Feb 20, 2025 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Sands: Stripe Smart Dunning Reduces Recurring Charge Declines by 30% | Emily Glassberg Sands | Feb 8, 2024 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Elad Gil: AI converts low-margin services spend into high-margin software revenue | Elad Gil | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Khan: Khan World School students are learning three to four times faster | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | Supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Haas: AI Won't Push-Button Design Frontier Chips Outperforming Leading Architectures | Rene Haas | Sep 3, 2026 | — |
| 28% | “28%” | Dohmke: Copilot yields 25-28% end-to-end developer productivity gains | Thomas Dohmke | Mar 13, 2025 | Supported |
| 27% | “27%” | Rao: Two in five doctors and 27% of nurses want to quit | Dr. Shiv Rao | Mar 27, 2025 | Contradicted |
| 25% | “25%” | Tang: DoorDash employs over 9 million Dashers with 25 percent growth | Stanley Tang | Jul 23, 2026 | Supported |
| 25% | “25%” | Meier: Chai-2 maintains success rate on targets with 25% sequence similarity | Joshua Meier | Jul 3, 2025 | Supported |
| 25% | “25%” | Dohmke: GitHub Copilot preview generated 25% of code early on | Thomas Dohmke | Mar 13, 2025 | Supported |
| 25% | “25%” | Vogt: AV labor costs hit diminishing returns at 25% remote assistance | Kyle Vogt | Feb 20, 2025 | — |
| 25% | “25%” | Davis: NVIDIA H100 GPU utilization is 25% or lower | Jared Quincy Davis | Aug 22, 2024 | — |
| 25% | “25%” | Gil: Klarna's AI assistant performed the equivalent work of 700 human agents | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Taubman: Labor-intensive service businesses keep only 20 cents per incremental revenue dollar | Alexander Taubman | May 11, 2026 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Gil: Tech could reach 15% to 30% of US GDP by 2035 | Elad Gil | Feb 19, 2026 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Dell: Solar makes up about 20% of Texas fuel mix | Zach Dell | Oct 15, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Pereyra: 20% faster coding does not produce products 20% faster | Gabe Pereyra | Dec 5, 2025 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Laskin: Teaching AI agents to take action is mostly solved | Misha Laskin | Jul 17, 2025 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Dent: Chai-2 hits nearly 20% wet-lab antibody binding success | Jack Dent | Jul 3, 2025 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Gil: 20% drop in NVIDIA stock after DeepSeek was unwarranted | Elad Gil | Feb 7, 2025 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Davis: AI teams hold 10% to 20% of GPUs idle as healing buffer | Jared Quincy Davis | Aug 22, 2024 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Davis: NVIDIA H100 GPU utilization is 25% or lower | Jared Quincy Davis | Aug 22, 2024 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Vinyals: General AI models are roughly 20% good at everything | Oriol Vinyals | Aug 1, 2024 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Ma: Domain-Specific Fine-Tuning Yields 15-20% Retrieval Gains in Code | Tengyu Ma | Jun 6, 2024 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Ma: Proprietary Data Fine-Tuning Adds 10-20% Retrieval Accuracy | Tengyu Ma | Jun 6, 2024 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Knoop: ARC-AGI benchmark performance only moved from 20% to 34% in four years | Mike Knoop | Jun 11, 2024 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Scott Wu: AI will enable software engineers to do 5x more | Scott Wu | May 2, 2024 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Daniel de Freitas Built Google's Meena as a Scrappy 20% Project | Noam Shazeer | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Gil: Healthcare is 20% of GDP; pharmaceuticals are 20% of that | Elad Gil | May 18, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Haas: AI Won't Push-Button Design Frontier Chips Outperforming Leading Architectures | Rene Haas | Sep 3, 2026 | — |
| 16% | “16%” | Gil: Healthcare is 20% of GDP; pharmaceuticals are 20% of that | Elad Gil | May 18, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 15% | “15%” | Helberg: Europe's share of global GDP collapsed from 65% to 15% | Jacob Helberg | Aug 28, 2025 | Partly supported |
| 15% | “15%” | Fulford: RFT is only worthwhile for out-of-distribution or make-or-break tasks | Isa Fulford | Apr 24, 2025 | — |
| 15% | “15%” | Clerico: Regulated utilities profit by marking up CapEx 15% to ratepayers | Bill Clerico | Jan 23, 2025 | — |
| 15% | “15%” | Mansour: Probability of Elon Musk stepping down from Tesla is 15-20% | Tarek Mansour | Oct 31, 2024 | — |
| 15% | “15%” | The robotic vehicle itself is only 15% of autonomous delivery complexity | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | — |
| 12% | “12%” | Gil: Top eight tech firms total $23T and over 50% of S&P | Elad Gil | Feb 19, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 11% | “11%” | McDermott: Only 11% of Brazilian companies have moved past AI experimentation | Bill McDermott | Apr 17, 2026 | Supported |
| 11% | “11%” | Clerico: Utilities Cause 11% of Ignitions but 50% of Wildfire Damage | Bill Clerico | Jan 23, 2025 | Supported |
| 10% | “10%” | McDermott: AI agents manage 90% of ServiceNow's customer service cases | Bill McDermott | Apr 17, 2026 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Roblox targets capturing 10% of global gaming content and 300M DAUs | David Baszucki | Feb 5, 2026 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Dell: 90% of power cost reduction comes from tech, 10% from capital | Zach Dell | Oct 15, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Arora: Every firewall does the same thing within plus or minus 10% | Nikesh Arora | Oct 2, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Liemandt: Parents will spend 10% of their income on kids' education | Joe Liemandt | Sep 25, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Laskin: Deploying superintelligence and reaching 10% GDP growth is multi-decade | Misha Laskin | Jul 17, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Burke: Current virtual cell models have only around 10% predictive accuracy | Dave Burke | Feb 25, 2025 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Gil: Converting 10% of human services payroll to AI matches US software | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Sands: Stripe ML Recovers Billions Globally in False Declines | Emily Glassberg Sands | Feb 8, 2024 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Coates: Shopify accounts for roughly 10% of all US e-commerce | Glen Coates | Jan 31, 2024 | Supported |
| 10% | “10%” | Singhal: Roughly 10% of all internet searches seek health information | Karan Singhal | May 18, 2023 | Supported |
| 10% | “10%” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Graveley: GitHub Copilot's in-the-wild test pass rate rose from under 10% to over 60% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Haas: AI Won't Push-Button Design Frontier Chips Outperforming Leading Architectures | Rene Haas | Sep 3, 2026 | — |
| 9.1% | “9.1%” | Kelly: Ginkgo gives 10x super-voting shares to all active employees | Jason Kelly | Sep 28, 2023 | — |
| 9% | “nine percent” | Wickramasekara: Prescription drugs account for 9% of US healthcare spending | Sajith Wickramasekara | Nov 13, 2025 | Supported |
| 9% | “nine percent” | Glyman: Internal data shows only 4-9% of finance roles are actually strategic | Eric Glyman | Aug 15, 2024 | — |
| 7% | “seven percent” | Ramaswamy: Google Featured Snippets Never Passed 7 Percent Coverage | Sridhar Ramaswamy | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Hodak: Vision gene therapy reimburses at nearly $500,000 per eye | Max Hodak | Aug 20, 2026 | Supported |
| 5% | “five percent” | Taubman: Long Lake HOA business accelerated from 0-5% to 20%+ annual growth | Alexander Taubman | May 11, 2026 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Helberg: US CapEx Surge Could Lift GDP Growth to 3% to 5% | Jacob Helberg | Aug 28, 2025 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Chen: Early Startups Should Not Hire Data Scientists as First Employees | Edwin Chen | Jul 24, 2025 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Goldman: Mingomba is the highest-grade undeveloped large copper deposit globally | Josh Goldman | Apr 17, 2025 | Open |
| 5% | “five percent” | Goldman: 10x ore grade reduces rock processing and capital intensity tenfold | Josh Goldman | Apr 17, 2025 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Mansour: Prediction market odds reflect win probabilities, not poll margins | Tarek Mansour | Oct 31, 2024 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Steinberger: AI coding tool adoption will be a bimodal step-function | Eric Steinberger | Aug 30, 2024 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Gil: Solving the final 5% of AI reliability will take five years | Elad Gil | Jan 31, 2024 | — |
| 4.1% | “4.1%” | Mansour: Kalshi pays 4.1% interest on active trade collateral | Tarek Mansour | Oct 31, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 4% | “four percent” | Helberg: US Accounts for 20% to 30% of Global Consumption | Jacob Helberg | May 14, 2026 | Supported |
| 4% | “four percent” | Helberg: US Re-Industrialization Inevitably Requires High Automation | Jacob Helberg | May 14, 2026 | — |
| 4% | “four percent” | Gil: Top eight tech firms total $23T and over 50% of S&P | Elad Gil | Feb 19, 2026 | Partly supported |
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