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20VC Prediction Held up
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 59:28 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Democrats will replace Joe Biden with Gavin Newsom after first debate
“This is why I think Biden's getting hot swapped this month. You heard it here first. He's got, no, Gavin is going to be running for president. It's going to be Trump and Gavin. They are hot-swapping Biden after this first debate. Biden is going to get demolish…”
Jason Calacanis Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 28:25 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Fauci knew early in February 2020 that COVID leaked from lab
“Fauci knew very early, as early as February first of 2020, that COVID came from a lab leak.”
David Sacks May 31, 2024 ▶ 26:31 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Fauci funded Wuhan lab gain-of-function research via EcoHealth
“Because he had funded gain-of-function research programs via Peter Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance to conduct, again, gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”
David Sacks May 31, 2024 ▶ 27:09 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
COVID vaccines were modestly effective and designed to manipulate DNA
“We caused billions of people all around the world to take immaturely tested drugs. They were called vaccines. We found out that they were modestly effective at best, and then some of them were designed in some ways to manipulate our DNA, and we just don't know…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2024 ▶ 31:27 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Horowitz: Google and Microsoft use safety rhetoric to lobby against open-source AI
“And they do it like the really kind of nasty thing is they claim, oh, it's for safety. You know, we've created an alien that we can't control, but we're not going to stop working on it. We're going to keep building it as fast as we can. And we're going to buy …”
Ben Horowitz May 9, 2024 ▶ 1:12:46 Build Your Startup With AI
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Hulme: Microsoft acquired Inflection primarily for its 12,000 H100 GPU cluster
“I do not believe that Microsoft were buying the Pi model. I think Microsoft are GPU constrained, and we're buying a cluster of 12,000 H-one hundreds.”
Tom Hulme May 8, 2024 ▶ 49:13 Tom Hulme: Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 275x on Robinhood & Making Billions on Uber |E1150 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts second Biden term will force Elon Musk to divest X
“So I think that in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and just start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 1:17:26 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
NEON SHOW Assertion Contradicted
Western agencies funded India's first ultrasound imports to curb population growth
“They basically, these whole bunch of these Rockefeller, Ford, even some UN agencies were involved in this, and they basically imported with their funding ultrasound machines. And they basically said that, look, this is great. Why don't you allow parents to act…”
Sanjeev Sanyal Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 20:51 Sanjeev Sanyal UNFILTERED - Kolkata’s Downfall, Bihar’s UPSC Craze & The Indian Dream I Neon Show
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Gallagher: Hundreds of billions in US capital fund Chinese military tech
“We have trillions, billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars, American dollars that are flowing into Chinese technology and military companies that are building things like aircraft carriers, artillery shells, fighter jets, things that are designed to…”
Congressman Mike Gallagher Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 22:05 The China Threat: Silicon Valley and the Great Uncoupling
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Lonsdale: Majority of Young Adults Dislike Jews for Their Success
“And now in 19 to 25 year olds, majority of them don't like Jews because we're successful.”
Joe Lonsdale Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 8:34 Ep 77: Mike Solana on Exposing Corruption, Saving San Francisco, and Building a New Media Empire · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Verdon: Centralized bioweapon defense research accidentally created a damaging virus
“There was centralized research on Bio, you know, bioweapon defense. Right. And we were worried about a potential virus that could do a lot of damage. And then it was actually accidentally created through that research.”
Guillaume Verdon Jan 31, 2024 ▶ 28:50 Ep 76: Accelerate or Die! Guillaume Verdon and the e/acc Movement · Joe Lonsdale
MORE OR LESS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Solana will surpass Ethereum in market capitalization
“I think Solana flips Ethereum.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:48 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Robbins: Stanford study found his program eliminated depression in 100% of participants
“100% of the people that they put through this program after six weeks had zero expressions of depression.”
Tony Robbins Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 21:49 Tony Robbins on the Future of Health & Longevity
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Supported
Cumulative US LNG emissions could exceed the footprint of 1,000 coal plants
“If you add up all the emissions from what's in operation, all the emissions from what's under construction, all the emissions from what is being proposed beyond that, we could be talking about the emission footprint of about a thousand, actually more than a th…”
Jeremy Symons Dec 18, 2023 ▶ 39:00 LNG exports: America’s hidden ‘climate bomb’
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Tucker Carlson claims up to 70 million illegal immigrants reside in US
“Some estimates, 60, seventy million. Those are real estimates, by the way, not crackpot estimates.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 57:49 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Supported
Gallagher: Illegal Reedley biolab held Ebola, HIV, and tuberculosis samples
“Eventually it was discovered that these vials contained Ebola HIV, tuberculosis. There was a freezer labeled Ebola. It was like these silver Ziplocs inside and the CDC wouldn't test it, which is crazy.”
Congressman Mike Gallagher Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 15:10 Ep 72: Illegal Chinese Bio Labs & Secret Police Inside America! Congressman Mike Gallagher · Joe Lonsdale
WE LIVE TO BUILD Assertion Contradicted
Tulla: An anti-inflammatory diet can put ALS in check
“Even ALS, I mean, can be put in check with the similar type of diet.”
Ari Tulla Nov 28, 2023 ▶ 37:37 Doctors Said She'd Never Have Kids. Diet Changed That.
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Rabois: No $100 billion European tech company has been created since 1990
“There hasn't been a hundred billion dollar European company created since 1990.”
Keith Rabois Nov 27, 2023 ▶ 20:37 Keith Rabois & Mike Shebat: Creating an Olympian Mindset to Work Ethic| E1087 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
NEON SHOW Assertion Contradicted
Kumar: Most milk in India exceeds regulatory aflatoxin limits
“There is a food safety standards, ok, guideline on what is the limit of aflatoxin. Most of the milk in the country is above, ok, that limit.”
Shashi Kumar Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 41:30 Heartbreaking Truth: The REAL REASON Indian Farmers Struggle - Akshayakalpa Founder on The Neon Show
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Supported
Del Chiaro: California solar sales fell 80% after net metering changes
“California just announced, you know, just put in place major changes to the number one driver to that market, which was net metering, and we just got data today that shows that sales are down 80% across the state.”
Bernadette Del Chiaro Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 12:48 Can California pull off its clean energy ambitions?
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
“Next year it'll be thousands. And then it'll kind of continue. At least 10 X growth every year for their foreseeable future.”
Kyle Vogt Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 4:47 Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt — Self Driving Cars Will 10X Every Year
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: Welfare incentivized Black women $92,000 to remain unmarried
“In, you know, black families as an example, the economic incentive to not get married on you know, today dollar adjusted basis was like, 92,000 to a black woman to not get married and have a child.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2023 ▶ 18:45 All-In Summit: "Luxury Beliefs are Status Symbols" with Rob Henderson
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mumgaard: CFS expects net energy fusion gain by early 2026
“And we'll start to assemble that machine later this year. And turn it on in this sort of, twenty-twenty-five time frame and get to Q greater than one, more power out than N for the first time probably early twenty-twenty-six.”
Bob Mumgaard Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 9:14 All-In Summit: Nuclear fusion and the potential for energy abundance
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 7:11 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: 70% of the world blames the US equally for Ukraine
“70% of the world's population does not believe this narrative about the Ukraine war. They understand that the U.S. Is at least equally responsible for this war.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 57:57 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 33:07 E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
WTF Assertion Contradicted
Mazumdar-Shaw: Vijay Mallya has paid back everything he owed
“Well, he's paid back everything he owed. So I don't understand why he's still being targeted.”
Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw Jul 23, 2023 ▶ 11:08 Ep #7 | Who is Kiran Mazumdar Shaw Really? And WTF is Biotech? · Nikhil Kamath
SAASTR Assertion Supported
Conrad: Deel and Remote rely on third-party payroll systems country by country
“Companies like Deal and like Remote actually have not built underlying global payroll or payroll really of any kind. And so those companies are sort of secretly running on Other payroll systems country by country.”
Parker Conrad Jun 27, 2023 ▶ 16:23 Rippling CEO Parker Conrad's Theory of the Compound Startup: Disrupting How We Think About Software
20VC Assertion Supported
Proposed EU AI Regulation Would Make All Existing LLMs Illegal
“One of the percent of the LMs that were trained these last three years would be illegal in Europe.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:02:08 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Bill Gates admits COVID-19 vaccines do not work
“Even Bill Gates admits now that the vaccine doesn't work. It's too short acting and it doesn't hold up against variants.”
David Sacks Jun 10, 2023 ▶ 6:00 E132: SEC goes after crypto giants, Sequoia splits, LIV/PGA, Messi's deal + LIVE Q&A!
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
LeCun: Autoregressive LLMs will be obsolete within a few years
“So my prediction is that within a few years, nobody in their right mind would use auto-reversive LLMs. They'll go away in favor of something more sophisticated and controllable. They can plan its answer as opposed to just produce one word after the other react…”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 14:30 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
CATALYST Assertion Supported
Hertz-Shargel: Bitcoin mining raises Texas power bills by $1.8B annually
“So collectively, it's 1.8 billion conservatively per year. And that's sort of a run rate, I would say. And that represents around a five percent increase in costs of Texans, of, you know non-Bitcoin mining consumers. And that, that's across all the different s…”
Ben Hertz-Shargel May 11, 2023 ▶ 17:33 The great Bitcoin energy debate
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
RFK Jr.: 2004 NIH study showed hydroxychloroquine obliterates coronavirus
“We knew ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were working. We knew that since 2004, because the NIH did this study that said hydroxychloroquine obliterates coronavirus.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 48:22 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
RFK Jr.: DTP vaccine killed or injured 1 in 300 kids in US
“It was killing or causing severe brain injury in one out of every 300 kids who got it.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:03:35 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
RFK Jr.: Pharma drugs are America's third leading cause of death
“And also pharmaceutical drugs, the third biggest killer of Americans after cancer and heart attack”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:29:24 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Supported
Green: Local anti-solar groups receive payments from climate denial networks
“And then they're supported by groups online or in their state or in their community that have ulterior motives, which we found. They're getting payments from organizations that have connections to climate denial,”
Miranda Green Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 17:57 What’s driving a surge in renewables opposition?
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Sacks: RESTRICT Act allows $1M fine and 20-year prison terms for VPN TikTok access
“What the act provides is that a US citizen using a VPN to access TikTok could theoretically be subjected to a maximum penalty of one million in fines or 20 years in prison or both.”
David Sacks Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 1:20:40 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
20VC Assertion Supported
Didi and the Chinese Government Had Full Access to Uber's Data
“It became very clear that everyone had all our data. Didi knew everything we were doing whereas, like, Lyft and Uber always knew what each other were doing, because we were watching each other, we're friends, things like that, but, like, we never had each othe…”
Adam Grenier Mar 15, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Adam Grenier: The Inside Story to Uber’s Hypergrowth; How We Spent $1B/mo in China | E989 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
HOW I BUILT THIS Assertion Contradicted
Bill Simmons: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell lied about Ray Rice
“And they did. Though Rice's told them. No, he lied.”
Bill Simmons Feb 13, 2023 ▶ 53:14 The Ringer: Bill Simmons
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Employees joining a $1B unicorn in 2023 will make nothing
“If as an employee, if you join a company with, in, in 2023 with a valuation over a billion as an employee, you're gonna make nothing. It doesn't matter what it sells for, you're gonna make nothing.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 22:52 Jason Lemkin: WTF is Going On in VC? Are LPs Investing in New Funds? | 20VC #965 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 29:33 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
a16z Assertion Contradicted
Chris Power claims 90% of US solar panels use Chinese slave labor
“90% of the solar panels in the country are being made in China by basically slave labor where millions of minority and immigrant women are being chemically castrated every year and forced into servitude.”
Chris Power Nov 18, 2022 ▶ 1:05:24 The Factory of the Future with Chris Power
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Partly supported
Luckey: Apple agreed to invest $275 billion in China to stay independent
“Apple's got 95% of their manufacturing in China. They agreed to invest. They've invested hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing capacity there. They've agreed to invest a further two hundred and seventy five billion dollars in Chinese manufacturing i…”
Palmer Luckey Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 1:02:37 From Flipping iPhones To Selling Oculus For $2 Billion To Facebook | Palmer Luckey (#378)
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Haugen: Facebook VIP Cross-Check Whitelisted Users and Delayed Reviews Three Days
“In reality, because they weren't willing to spend a very small amount of budget, they didn't actually put that second check in for most safety systems. So for most safety systems, people got white listed. So if you were in cross check, the safety systems no lo…”
Frances Haugen Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 38:51 Facebook Whistleblower Frances Haugen On Product, Competition, And Transparency
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Elon Musk estimates at least 20% of Twitter accounts are bots
“I think it's some number that is probably at least four or five times that number. I'd say at if you did sort of the lowest estimate would be probably 20%. And this is a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the sort of…”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 3:15 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Goldstein: Supreme Court conservative majority will likely vote 5-4 to overturn Roe
“Till June of this year, where they will likely win five to four.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 24:57 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Sinclair: Research shows cellular epigenetic aging damage can be reversed
“And what we've discovered is that there are ways to, well, we discovered one of the main causes of scratches, that's broken chromosomes, which happens all the time in our bodies. Extreme cell damage also does that if we crush nerves. But we've also figured out…”
Dr. David Sinclair May 3, 2022 ▶ 8:17 David Sinclair: Reversing the Aging Process
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