The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 52 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 52 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Electric planes will outnumber gas-powered planes in the air by 2030
“By 2030, you'll see more electric airplanes in the air than gas powered airplanes.”
Shufelt: Non-alcoholic beer will account for over 50% of beer consumption
“In my head, I think it's going to be over 50% of beer.”
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will become the world's biggest meat company
“We started saying to everybody, we're going to become the world's biggest meat company. This is what we're going to do. And if you're the world's biggest meat company, you're not selling the technology. You're selling meat.”
Berdichevsky: Silicon should replace graphite across all batteries in 20 years
“So I think there'll, there'll be a place for graphite, but I would say in 20 years, silicon should be able to replace it in every nook and cranny.”
Altemus: Humans will not return to the Moon until 2030
“And so I think it's twenty-thirty before we see boots on the moon.”
Dolgov: Autonomous taxis in most major US cities within 10 years
“I definitely agree with the latter, and I would not dismiss the former. 10 years is a, you know, reasonably long time, and, you know, things can happen nonlinearly.”
Finke: Calcium silicate cement will be lower cost at scale
“In the modern economy, we think that will be lower cost at scale.”
Ben-Shitrit: Top 20 meat companies will include animal-free producers in a decade
“If you look even 10 years from now, out of the 20 biggest meat companies around the world, One company or two companies for sure will not rely on animals. This I have no doubt.”
Brain-based wearables will replace and consolidate all other wearable devices
“One is that brain-based wearables are going to replace
All the other wearables that you have.
That's step one.
And so all that data and all that value that we're seeing with existing wearables are going to be all consolidated into one device.”
Khan: AI tutoring will help Khan Academy achieve two-sigma learning gains
“Essentially, old Khan Academy or base Khan Academy trying to get to that first standard deviation. And, but now with the AI, we can go to that second standard deviation.”
Urmson predicts tens of percent of U.S. trucking becomes autonomous by 2033
“I think that's probably high for 10 years from now, but it's gonna be tens of percent is my expectation in, in a decade.”
Cliffton: Zipline will serve hundreds of millions of homes within five years
“And so I think that, you know, the question of how long is it going to take to expand from the, You know, thousands of homes that are served today to the hundreds of millions of homes that we ultimately need to serve. I think that that process will probably ta…”
Scholl: Overture is designed to be profitable at $5,000 fares
“And then for Overture One, we've said, look, we want to focus on business class. And so we've designed that airplane such that it will be profitable for airlines at fares a quarter of what was charged on Concorde.”
Scholl: Boom aims for Overture passenger certification by end of 2029
“And our goal is to spend two years in that flight test campaign and then be certified to carry passengers by the end of 2029.”
Eremenko: Boeing and Airbus must choose hydrogen over hydrocarbons by late 2020s
“In the late 20 twenties, I think it will be absolutely impossible for either of those two companies to say, we're going to launch a brand new airplane that will burn hydrocarbons, right?”
Eremenko: Commercial hydrogen flights will operate globally before 2032
“Long before a decade from now, guy, you will be able to fly on hydrogen with a major regional airline, both in the U S or in Europe or in other parts of the world. For a ticket price that will be equivalent or lower, with the comfort knowing that the airplane …”
Scaringe: Gas cars will be rare antiques within 25 years
“So call it the next 15 to 20 years, we'll see the fleet of vehicles in the world
Essentially shift almost entirely towards electric, but you know, within, I'd say, 25 years, it would be fairly rare to see a gasoline powered car on the road.
It would be like se…”
Araque: Quaise Can Reach 20-Kilometer Depths to Unlock Global Geothermal
“So we think we can get to 20 kilometers. This is twice as deep as we've ever drilled as humans, and precisely what's needed to make geothermal totally global and ubiquitous.”
Araque: Geothermal could supply 20% of global energy by 2050
“So let's say by 20 50 we have on the order of one to five terawatts, that's probably a healthy 20% of global energy needs, but certainly after that, you know, you start talking about the majority of energy coming from here.”
Baird: Carbon capture market will be larger than gold and oil
“Yeah, it's going to be like Bigger than gold and oil. That's correct.”
Baird predicts women's soccer will reach media parity within 10 years
“I do, and I know that's kind of a bold, brave statement to say when we're only four percent of the coverage today, and we're certainly not anywhere near the massive audience or revenues that some of our men's leagues have, but I think we and other women's spor…”
Zimmer: People will not drive cars in major cities in 20 years
“In major urban environments, I do not think so. I think maybe we'll go to amusement parks to do that.”
Hyman aimed to build Rent the Runway into a $100 billion company
“Yeah, so I'm here to build a hundred billion dollar company, and To change the way we get dressed every single day all over the world, and to democratize what I think is one of the most elite industries on earth, and one of the most wasteful industries on eart…”
Dave's Hot Chicken expects to open 900 sold locations within five years
“Maybe like four, four or five years, four years.”
Berdichevsky: Sila will achieve a 40 percent energy density improvement over graphite
“And so that's where the technology is today, and then over the next few years, we'll get that to a 30% improvement. Eventually, we think we can get that to a 40% improvement over state-of-the-art graphite chemistries.”
Berdichevsky: First consumer cars with Sila technology expected in 2026
“And right now we're planning to be complete with the Current phase of the factory, what we call phase one at the end of this year, and we'll spend the first half of next year bringing that online very carefully to make very high quality product, and we'll begi…”
Carbon removal credit prices will eventually coalesce around $300 per ton
“And, you know, there's, we think that the price is going to coalesce around 300 dollars per ton, given where the supply and demand, ah, is.”
Chris Ruder Predicts Roundnet Will Eventually Become an Olympic Sport
“Yeah, I absolutely think we will be recognized by the Olympics. I think there will be professional round net players, and we will be considered a legitimate sport.”
Eremenko: The ATR 72 will be the first commercial hydrogen airliner
“The airplane we are specifically targeting as the first hydrogen airplane, and which will be the largest hydrogen airplane to enter service, will be the ATR 72, which is about a 50 to 60 passenger airplane, and flies about a thousand kilometers.”
Wurzbacher: Direct air capture will reach million-ton scale by 2030
“This industry is set up to scaling up to the million tons per year scale in the next couple of Years towards the end of this decade. So that's what will happen. We are doing that like a handful of other companies are working towards that.”
Vaccarella predicts that Bogg Bag will become a billion-dollar brand
“I believe it'll be a billion dollar brands.”
Riccobono: UNTUCKit will become a billion-dollar brand
“And the reason I say that is, I really believe that this is going to be a billion dollar brand. I still do.”
Scudamore: WOW 1 DAY PAINTING will surpass 1-800-GOT-JUNK?
“One day it will be bigger than one 800 got junk simply because the painting space is even that much larger than junk removal.”
Berdichevsky: Automotive battery integration takes roughly five years post-consumer electronics
“We, 10 years in, we got into our first consumer electronics device, and, you know, it'll be Sort of around five years more from then to get into, you know, first car that folks can buy.”
Ells: Kernel will rely on human teams for at least the next decade
“There will always be a place, you know, for our teams to operate the kernel model for the foreseeable future, and I'm talking about the next decade at least, right?”
Electric cargo planes will bypass standard airports within four to six years
“In the near future, the next few years, they'll go to the airport only because of regulatory challenges of putting off airport landing sites. But in the next four to six years, what'll happen is these aircraft will actually go to the distribution center, which…”
Fambro: Aptera's initial launch vehicle will deliver 400 miles of range
“The launch vehicle is going to get around 400 miles range.”
The Palm Oil Market Will Continue to Grow Over the Next 30 Years
“It's efficient, it's productive, so we can make a lot of it, but the reason that it has grown so explosively and will continue to grow over the next 30 years really comes down to the performance of palm oil as compared to other vegetable oils.”
The Global Vegetable Oil Market Will Near $1 Trillion by 2050
“The global vegetable oil industry is going to be almost a trillion dollars by twenty-fifty.”
Scholl: Overture will fly Tokyo to Seattle in 4.5 hours
“Just about the longest non-stop route would be Tokyo to Seattle. In four and a half hours, and just pause on that for a second, four and a half hours across the Pacific.”
Lore: Rolling Wonder out across the US will take 10 to 15 years
“It's going to take probably, you know, 10 to 15 years to roll it out across the country. It's not something you do in just a couple years.”
Drilling a 20-kilometer deep geothermal well will cost just $20 million
“Twenty million dollars. Just twenty million dollars. Okay. Twenty million dollars. Twenty million dollars per well if it's 20 kilometers.”
Vaynerchuk expects to buy the New York Jets in 25 years
“I know how I'm going about doing it, which makes me feel that I'm gonna get it done in 25 to 27 years.”
Newman: It makes me sad that Magic Hat probably won't survive much longer
“I was watching Magic Hat, you know, tank, and, you know, it's continuing to tank, and it's probably not going to make it much longer, and it made me really sad to realize that that's not living in my legacy.”
Davis Smith: Cotopaxi can become a billion-dollar business
“I believe we can go build a billion dollar business.”