The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 148 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 148 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sachs: US DER grid services will surpass 100 GW by 2030
“We believe that grid services will more than triple by 2030 to well north of a hundred gigawatts in, in North America, really the U.S.”
Ellis: Sublime's cement matches the embodied energy of Portland cement
“Sublime's process has, produces a cement that has the same embodied energy as Portland cement today.”
Steele: 90% of Unelectrified People Will Live in Africa by 2030
“By 2030, 90% of people who don't have access to electricity will be living in Africa.”
Steele: Nigeria's Population Will Surpass the US in the Next 15 Years
“In the next 15 years, Nigeria's population is going to pass the U.S., So it'll be the third most populous country in the world.”
Jaffe: Over 600 GWh of battery manufacturing will onshore in North America
“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”
Jenkins: IRA Will Drive $200B+ Investment Into Energy Communities by 2030
“Our estimates are that that provision and a few others sprinkled throughout the bill that will help drive investment into energy communities will support several hundred billion dollars, probably at least two hundred billion dollars of investment in energy com…”
Jenkins: IRA will redirect EV supply chain capital to North America
“What this bill is going to do is make sure a vast majority of that investment is going to go into the United States, North America, and other free trade agreement countries. And so I think we're going to see a big reorientation of the supply chain”
Jenkins: US hydrogen demand will explode after 2030, not before
“So that makes hydrogen you know, in our modeling, there's not a lot of demand for it in the 20, 20 to 20, 30 period, but after 2030, it explodes. It takes off for liquid fuels and for some industrial processes.”
Jenkins: Flexible industrial power consumers could secure one-cent-per-kWh contracts under IRA
“And so, you know, you could probably get one cent a kilowatt hour contracts, right, with that kind of environment. And as long as you don't need it 24 seven, right, as long as you're okay using it intermittently.”
Jenkins: IRA will drive roughly 29% US electricity demand growth over decade
“So electricity demand grows by about 29%, so just shy of 30% over the next decade in our modeling driven primarily by electrification of vehicles, and then the secondary effect from building electrification.”
Bataille: Massive global oil and natural gas consumption will persist for decades
“Because, you know, we're at a hundred million barrels per day and a large consumption of natural gas. That's going to be with us for 30 years.”
Bataille: Green electricity will displace blue hydrogen for fertilizer past 2030
“Now, for ammonia, there may in the short run be an argument for using blue hydrogen to make, you know, to make ammonia for fertilizers, but in the long haul, like past 20, 30, really, You know, the cost of electrolyzers and the cost of solar, you would just ma…”
Atkinson: Distribution utilities operate with customer-level grid data delayed by hours or days
“And so it's really normal for distribution utilities today to have a view of their grid that's at least two hours old and often
You know, more than a day old at least as regards to what's happening at the individual customer level.”
Lubershain: Large data centers add 10% to 30%+ to mid-sized utility loads
“For a mid-sized utility, most of the kind of, Hundreds of megawatt scale data centers we're seeing today would add 10%, 20%, 30%, or more if we're getting up to gigascale data centers to the utility's total load.”
Janous: Terrestrial data centers will remain the vast majority through 2030
“I just look at the pie of total data centers by 20 30 and pick your date in the future. I'm a big believer of terrestrial data centers are still going to be, like, the vast majority of the way we build data centers. Like, I just don't, I'm not sure how much it…”
Wang: Voya starts instantly unlike diesel's 5-10 second cold start
“Basically instant cold start, just like a battery, whereas a diesel generator often will take five to 10 seconds to get to Full power from a cold start”
Tillis predicts Congress will fail to pass critical mineral legislation this year
“I just don't see it as a realistic, it's just a function of the capacity of the Congress in this Congress, and the fact that it's an election year. So, I just think if I were advising a client on it, other than doing the missionary work and getting people boug…”
Hade: C&I battery installation costs will halve to $100/kWh in five years
“And then on the installation cost side of things, it's a little bit more difficult to predict, but I think we're probably looking at like having that over the next five years. So going from 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to a hundred dollars a kilowatt hour.”
Fulgham: Solar relative growth may slow in 2026 despite record absolute gains
“My gut feeling now is that maybe 2026 is the year where that relative growth rate will step down a little bit, and we'll see slower relative growth, even though we might still again get a record absolute increase.”
Sheldon-Coulson: Panthalassa satellite connection adds 100 milliseconds of latency
“The additional latency that we have is only like a hundred milliseconds. That, Vanishes into the, even the latency of time to first token on most pre-fill certainly on the interactive latency of a human waiting for an output”
Kann predicts Hawley's bill mandating off-grid data centers will not pass
“Josh Hawley in the Senate and somebody else, I think introduced a bill that would essentially mandate data centers to go off grid. I, my presumption is that doesn't pass.”
Bullard: Texas will not build 226 GW of large load by 2033
“I don't think that Texas is actually going to be building 226 gigawatts of just large load in the coming, let's say, seven to eight years.”
Gramlich expects Grain Belt Express transmission project will proceed without DOE loan
“The project I expect will go forward. It's a great project.”
Lubershain: The power grid cannot add hundreds of gigawatts this decade
“We can add a certain number of tens of gigawatts
Through the remainder of the decade, but we're not adding hundreds of gigawatts, right?
Like that just is not possible.”
AI training data centers are beginning to abandon backup generators
“I think with some of the AI training sites, we've seen it's more of a move away from backup generators.”
Redwood Materials expects to deploy gigawatt-hours of repurposed batteries by 2026
“We think we can refurbish and deploy Gigawatt hours. Low single digit gigawatt hours this year, next year.”
Retail electricity rates in the United States will remain broadly inflationary
“My conviction is growing stronger and stronger. The rates are going to be somewhat inflationary, Broadly across the board for a while.”
Elemental Power expects its first nuclear plant to operate by 2032
“26 to 28, we're doing a construction permit. You know, 29, we start construction, and by 32, 33, we're operating the plant.”
Waters: LFP chemistry will remain dominant in battery storage as costs fall
“LFP will, I think, remain dominant in that timeframe, just because you're going to see the cost curves continue to drive down.”
Grunwald: Global Food Production Needs 6 Quadrillion More Calories by 2050
“You know, we're probably at this point gonna need about six quadrillion more calories by twenty-fifty which is, you know, I like to say it's like a dozen Olive Garden breadsticks every day for every human being on Earth. That's extra. We're gonna have to grow.”
McGavis: Reclaimed gas will be the primary servicing source by 2030
“You know, by 2030, the source of refrigerant for service will have to come from reclaim and recovered refrigerant. That will have to be the primary source as these manufacturing quotas go down year over year.”
Lubbershane: Electricity will remain more cost-effective than biofuels or hydrogen
“Even as the cost of clean electricity increases over the coming decade or two or three, I think electricity will still look cost effective as a fuel, like the primary, you know, the energy input relative to things like biofuels or clean hydrogen, perhaps some …”
Lubbershane: High-performance lithium battery density will improve 50% within a decade
“I think it is reasonably safe to assume that we're going to get at least a 50% improvement in lithium ion battery density for high performance batteries in the next, let's say, five to 10 years.”
Lubbershane: Utilities will demand gigawatts of multi-day storage by the early 2030s
“Utilities are starting to see that, yes, it's very difficult to get, you know, a gigawatt of multi-day storage today, but in a few years, and certainly by the early twenty-thirties, they're going to want gigawatts of multi-day storage as a compliment to their …”
Private-label plant-based meat will eventually capture a high-teens market share.
“So our thought process is you'll probably see private label ramp over time to a high teens percent of the market, more or less where it is in plant-based beverages and the rest of the food industry.”
Norris: Non-ERCOT US power markets are unlikely to adopt energy-only models
“So we're unlikely to see other markets go in an energy-only direction, and the question is whether we can incorporate some of
The learnings and the process improvements that ERCOT has achieved into this alternative framework where you have both energy and capa…”
Visioni: Planet-altering geoengineering deployment is extremely unlikely in next decade
“Whatever happens, we're not doing, we're not going to change the planet in the next decade. There, we just, there's no upside. There's, it's extremely unlikely.”
Vijendran: Commercial space solar will take at least a decade with moonshot funding
“We're talking about a decade. Probably at the minimum, if there's a real push to make this happen, a moonshot like approach, putting a substantial amount of funding over that amount of time to do the R and D as well as the demos that you have to do along the w…”
Kann: US solar installations will top 100 GW annually by 2030
“We'll do maybe 30 to 35 gigawatts of solar total this year, and according to the repeat project, we may hit almost 50 gigawatts by twenty-twenty-five or twenty-twenty-six. By the end of the decade, we'll be doing over a hundred gigawatts a year, potentially we…”
Sachs: Classic behind-the-meter demand response will dominate DERs for 5-10 years
“I think if you looked forward five, 10 years, you might start to see that, that split start to break down, although kind of going back to what I said before, I think until we really work out this injection piece, that, that demand response, classic demand resp…”
Friedmann: Japan will use ammonia in its steel mills
“Japan is going to be putting ammonia into its steel mills”
Heavy industry will represent a majority of global emissions by 2050
“These hard to abate sectors represent about a third of global emissions today. And they're the ones, you know, as all the listeners know, this is where the energy transition has not started. And so on current course in speed, this will be a majority of humanit…”
Mukhopadhyay: Fuel cell aircraft expected in market by 2028 to 2030
“For fuel cell aircraft, you could probably expect them 20, 28, 20 30.”
Mukhopadhyay: Liquid hydrogen combustion aircraft will not arrive before 2035
“And so with that timeline, yes, 2035 is probably the earliest I would expect a liquid hydrogen combustion aircraft to show up.”
Jaffe: Lithium prices will fall but remain elevated for a decade
“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”
Jaffe: Graphite will continue to dominate EV anodes over the next decade
“On the anode side, it's going to be for this next decade, it's, we're still going to be living in a graphite dominated world with more and more silicon coming into the
The anode, but it's still going to be mostly graphite”
Visioni: Space mirrors for geoengineering unlikely in next 50 years
“It is very unlikely that in the next 2030, 50 years, we could scale up space industry in a way that would allow us to have large, gigantic, controllable space mirrors at L Two.”
Matthew: Amazon added 3.8 GW and Microsoft added 2 GW over 12 months
“Like Amazon brought on 3.8 gigawatts in the last 12 months. So they're going to double their footprint in the next two years. Microsoft said they're going to double as well. And they brought on two gigawatts in the last 12 months.”