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United States

also referred to as: the united states · the us · u s · us

604 statements across 261 episodes · 112 bullish · 284 bearish · 92 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 8,781 times in 455 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (1830), David Friedberg (1579), David Sacks (1406), Chamath Palihapitiya (1397), Howard Lutnick (145), Brad Gerstner (120), Gavin Baker (100), Donald J. Trump (89)

tap a year for its mentions
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0751502020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001375251502020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 1,446 mentions in 78 episodes 19 per episode
2025 2,787 mentions in 119 episodes 23 per episode
2024 1,101 mentions in 72 episodes 15 per episode
2023 1,440 mentions in 64 episodes 23 per episode
2022 1,033 mentions in 59 episodes 18 per episode
2021 652 mentions in 46 episodes 14 per episode
2020 322 mentions in 17 episodes 19 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020 negative
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: COVID-19 will spread throughout the US population
“At this point, I think everybody admits that this thing is going to roll through the population of the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 13:18 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US COVID-19 infection counts are likely off by 10x or more
“I do still believe that we're probably at least one, maybe more orders of magnitude off in our infected population count especially here in the United States.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 25:09 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US has nearly triple Italy's ICU beds per capita
“Italy has about 12 and a half critical care beds per capita. Per 100,000, sorry population. The U.S. Has 35, so we're, you know, three X the number of ICU or critical care beds per person than Italy has.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 26:01 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 15, 2020 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Italy is third oldest globally, with ~25% over 65
“Italy is the third oldest country in the world. Okay, so about a quarter of Italians are over 65. That is nearly three X or two X what the U.S. Is as a percentage of population being over 65.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 31:45 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Mar 19, 2020
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: A three-month US economic shutdown costs $4.5 trillion
“The GDP of the United States is 20 trillion dollars, roughly. Every month, let's assume the whole economy shuts down. Every month that we're shut down costs us 1.5 trillion dollars. So if we're going to have the country shut down for say three months, we're lo…”
David Friedberg Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 1:01:02 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
Mar 19, 2020 neutral
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: US COVID-19 fatality rate will likely be 0.15% to 1.8%
“If I were to put my money on this, look, I'm a betting guy. I would be a little bit nervous at this point, but I'd say it's probably somewhere between .15 and call it 1.8%, you know, call it, that's an order of magnitude, I know. So, you know, but you could do…”
David Friedberg Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 18:32 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
Mar 19, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple should be forced to bring manufacturing to US
“Apple should probably be forced to bring a lot of their production capacity back into the United States. They should find a diversified global supply chain so that you have multiple suppliers in many countries in the world. But they should rely more on America…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 1:10:41 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
Mar 19, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US will likely shift toward federalized right-to-try laws
“I think we're gonna maybe see a big shift in policy and allow right to try laws that are gonna be federalized so, you know, states can make decisions about right to try laws and doctors and patients can try drugs on their own discretion without having a federa…”
David Friedberg Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 1:14:43 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
Apr 11, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US won't have a coherent alternative to COVID shutdowns by May
“But I think most of all these ideas need to be tied together into a coherent system, and I'm worried that our approach to date has been so ad hoc that we're not going to have a coherent system ready to go as a replacement to shutdowns in May when we need it.”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2020 ▶ 40:32 E2: Rebooting economy, understanding corporate debt, avoiding a depression & more with David Sacks
May 21, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Chamath Palihapitiya claims China is a stronger adversary than the USSR
“This is the beginning of the modern cold war. And so it's America versus China. Except that China is a much more worthy adversary for us than the USSR, SSR was at their peak.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 21, 2020 ▶ 49:34 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
May 21, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US economic decoupling from China will become a bipartisan issue
“Decoupling from China is going to be a bipartisan issue now. I think both candidates now will be, well, Trump is going to run blaming China for what happened. And I don't think Biden's going to be defending China. In fact, they're going to try and peg him with…”
David Sacks May 21, 2020 ▶ 53:58 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
May 21, 2020 negative
What-if
David Friedberg estimates reshoring China manufacturing would increase consumer costs 5x
“And that just wouldn't fucking be possible. Like we don't have enough people to work. We don't have the ability to do that. The cost of everything would go up by five X.”
David Friedberg May 21, 2020 ▶ 1:00:03 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
May 21, 2020
Disclosure
David Friedberg admits betting US COVID-19 deaths would stay under 20,000
“I asked you guys, or you guys asked me when I thought we'd be back, and I was like, oh, April seventh, we'll be back to work, and I also had a bet going with you guys, and I said we're gonna have less than 20,000 deaths in the US.”
David Friedberg May 21, 2020 ▶ 17:20 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
May 21, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Critical medical manufacturing will return from China to US
“It doesn't really make sense for us to be dependent on China for our antibiotics, for our medicines, for our PPE, for any of these You know, any of these products that are important for national survival I think all that stuff is going to come back home.”
David Sacks May 21, 2020 ▶ 54:24 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jul 11, 2020 negative
Insight
The US cannot successfully compete against China through economic isolationism
“You can't successfully sustain a cold war with China without global partnership. And I think you know, this notion of nationalism and isolationism in the United States will not work in a world where we are also trying to compete globally With China and are rai…”
David Friedberg Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 48:47 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 negative
Opinion
The US must reshore critical elements like pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips
“We've basically offshored so many of the elements that are necessary for our national survival, and I think those elements have to be brought back so that America is safe and independent.”
David Sacks Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 50:51 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
China has 2.8 million factories compared to just 250,000 in the US
“Two, 2.8 million. Now how many do you think exist in the United States? Close, about 250,000. And China has about eighty three million factory workers, and we have about 12.”
David Friedberg Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 46:26 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 negative
Opinion
The Overton window of acceptable public discourse is at its smallest ever
“I would theorize, I would tell you that the Overton window is the smallest it's ever been.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 53:59 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A new Cold War with China could politically unify the United States
“Nothing brings us together like a common enemy. So it could be that the unification is gonna be you know, in part driven by this Cold War II and creating a common enemy in China. Is going to work for both the right and the left and create a lot of opportunity …”
David Friedberg Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:07:00 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020
Assertion Partly supported
The US grows soybeans on 160 million acres, exporting two-thirds to China
“And soybeans are grown on a hundred and sixty million acres in the US and it rotates half and half each year with corn, but about two thirds of our soybeans historically get exported to China.”
David Friedberg Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:11:30 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 11, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The US pandemic response defaulted to an undeclared herd immunity strategy
“I think that basically where the country is at is that we're an undeclared Sweden. You know, we've basically, the virus has become endemic. It's everywhere. You know, we've basically given up on trying to contain or stop it. And so now we're just on this path …”
David Sacks Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:20:57 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jul 31, 2020 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: US public companies shrank by 50 percent between 2000 and 2020
“In the year, 2000, there was 8000 public companies in the year, 2020, July, 2020, as we sit there, August, 2020, there's about 4000. So we've seen a shrinking of 50% of the number of public companies.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 21:21 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Sep 9, 2020 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: The political realignment following democracy's strain will happen in our lifetimes
“And I don't think that awkward phase is realized in the next presidential term, but it is going to be realized in our lifetimes.”
David Friedberg Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 1:12:08 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts no new U.S. gun control legislation for a generation
“There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation because of the looting and writing that's going on Gun sales are at an all-time high.”
David Sacks Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 44:29 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Bottom quartile Americans are better off than 50 years ago, but relative inequality grew
“While everyone in the United States or the average and even the bottom quartile of the population in the US is better off than they were 50 years ago in terms of income and healthcare and shelter and access to food and access to all these things, they're, the …”
David Friedberg Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 1:11:26 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020
Assertion Supported
Sacks asserts U.S. gun sales and first-time buyers reached record highs
“Gun sales are at an all-time high. I mean, every single gun store that you can possibly go to. You can't get guns, you can't get ammo, and there are more first-time gun buyers in the United States in the last several months than there's ever been.”
David Sacks Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 44:40 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 9, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts Social Capital and one or two others will dominate SPACs
“My personal perspective, it's probably us and maybe one or two other people who really dominate the space.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 9, 2020 ▶ 56:47 E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more
Sep 19, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Opening US markets to China destroyed American manufacturing capacity
“We don't, we just threw open our markets to their products which caused, you know, us to lose our whole, you know, industrial you know, manufacturing capacity.”
David Sacks Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 27:12 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Sep 19, 2020 positive
Opinion
Chamath: US must play hardball with China to force trade reciprocity
“It's unfair to have the asymmetric market advantages that, that Chinese companies have had. And so you have to play hard ball. To create a different set of rules, and I think this probably gets us to that place.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 19, 2020 ▶ 8:00 E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021
Oct 3, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Tech companies will spread across the US as SF drives them out
“Because of what San Francisco has done in terms of driving out companies, I think the companies are going to be, you know, tech companies are going to be all over the US now.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:05:39 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US will see largest economic migration in country's history
“I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic the single largest economic migration in the history of this country.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:25:16 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Insight
Gerstner: Four years under any president cannot change America's overall trajectory
“Four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of the country”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:33:00 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: US wealth disparity will continue to increase
“The exact, the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:57:08 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 11, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Political messaging will shift toward micro-segmentation over 15-20 years
“People care more deeply in a more complex way, and I think politics needs to resolve to that and that's gonna require a shift in how you communicate, how you message, how you get feedback, how you drive blocks for voting, and it's gonna you know, be a really i…”
David Friedberg Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 42:10 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Jan 11, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Next few weeks will see institutional overreach and dumb decisions
“And it's going to be, I think, over the next few weeks, a super messy conversation, because you're going to have a bunch of dumb decisions. You're going to have a bunch of overreaching.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 22:39 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
Jan 23, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: US M1 money supply grew 75% in one year
“At this point, the M-one money supply, which I sent the link out ahead of this for Nick to share, has gone up by 75% in just the past year.”
David Friedberg Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 45:57 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 23, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: U.S. will reemerge in 10-20 years driven by tech innovation
“I think in the next 10, I think in the next 10 and 20 years, the United States is going to fucking reemerge like a phoenix. And the reason is going to be because of innovation around climate change and agriculture and biotechnology and technology. These four a…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 23, 2021 ▶ 1:01:06 E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Jan 30, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: US generated $160B in capital gains tax revenue last year
“So in the US we generated a hundred and sixty billion dollars in capital gains tax last year.”
David Friedberg Jan 30, 2021 ▶ 40:33 E19: Robinhood's GameStop decision: Why did it happen and how can it be prevented in the future?
Feb 6, 2021
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Draymond Green: Racism in America is not at an all-time high
“Racism is at an all-time high. It's not at an all-time high. It's the same that it's been. It's just on the, it's being pushed to the forefront now, as opposed to it being on the back burner before.”
Draymond Green Feb 6, 2021 ▶ 49:51 E21: Media misalignment, subjects controlling narratives & more with bestie guestie Draymond Green
Feb 6, 2021
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Draymond Green predicts societal attitudes in the U.S. will not shift
“I don't think anything is going to shift and part, and partly because we live in a fake ass world where no one can say anything.”
Draymond Green Feb 6, 2021 ▶ 50:35 E21: Media misalignment, subjects controlling narratives & more with bestie guestie Draymond Green
Feb 20, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: US produces and delivers 3 to 4 million vaccine doses daily
“The U.S. Has enough supply to vaccinate pretty much anyone that wants to get vaccinated, because we are producing and delivering three to four million doses per day in the U.S. Right now.”
David Friedberg Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 47:44 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
Feb 20, 2021 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US is reaching COVID-19 herd immunity based on infection and vaccination math
“So if you have thirty million people who've had the vaccine had COVID, you're looking at five times that is a 150, now you have sixty million people who have been vaccinated, we're at two 10, there were three hundred thirty million Americans, seventy million a…”
Jason Calacanis Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 53:27 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
Feb 20, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: United States has purchased 1.2 billion vaccine doses
“We now have bought 1.2 billion vaccines.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 20, 2021 ▶ 52:09 E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions
Mar 6, 2021 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Sacks: US unemployment will fall to 3-4% within two quarters
“We're already down to six percent unemployment. We're going to be down to, I'd say probably three or four percent. In two quarters.”
David Sacks Mar 6, 2021 ▶ 16:30 E24: Markets trend down, political pandemic manipulation, stimulus breakdown, biological Patriot Act
Mar 13, 2021
Assertion Supported
Chamath: US wealth inequality was at its modern lowest in the late 1970s
“The period of the least inequality in recent history was in the late seventies, which is an incredible stat to say where the gap between the top decile and the bottom decile was like, you know, kind of like on an index. Like, 6065, whereas today it's sort of l…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 49:31 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 13, 2021 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts the US will begin exiting the pandemic in 45 days
“In 45 days or so we're going to get to a point that we're starting to skate out of this thing”
David Friedberg Mar 13, 2021 ▶ 10:44 E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more
Mar 27, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
David Sacks argues US vaccination rollout vastly outperforms an incompetent Europe
“We're doing a much better job vaccinating people than Europe. I mean, it's unbelievable that COVID is spiking in Europe right now because they've been so incompetent at getting people vaccinated.”
David Sacks Mar 27, 2021 ▶ 1:09:05 E27: The Great Inflation Debate, Amazon gets spicy on Twitter, rethinking supply chains & more
Apr 1, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Equalizing policies like wealth taxes will slow US economic progress
“We're coming into a cycle now, where we're going to start to vote down freedom and vote up equality. And this is sort of what the wealth tax in my mind represents is this kind of redistribution or this returning to a kind of the mean or reversion to the mean i…”
David Friedberg Apr 1, 2021 ▶ 54:48 E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more
Apr 1, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
David Sachs states US national debt has reached 130% of GDP
“We now have. 130% of our GDP. We are now in debt.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2021 ▶ 32:38 E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more
Apr 1, 2021 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US produced most major tech discoveries of the last 30 years
“And if you looked at the great scientific and technical discoveries of the last 30 years, so many of them came from the United States because of this freedom, not from China, and China's certainly done fine.”
David Friedberg Apr 1, 2021 ▶ 58:35 E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more
Apr 17, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Data shows state lockdowns do not reduce COVID-19 death rates
“There's really no correlation between death rates for COVID per capita and the severity of lockdowns. Basically, the data shows that lockdowns don't have an impact on a state's success in battling COVID.”
David Sacks Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 57:10 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
Apr 17, 2021
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: US experiencing largest economic migration in its history
“We have the largest economic migration in the history of this country. Occurring right now.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 17, 2021 ▶ 55:30 E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner
May 1, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Palihapitiya: Pew survey shows 73% of Americans value hard work
“The number is 73% and we are the third highest ranking country in the survey.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2021 ▶ 32:47 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
May 1, 2021 positive
Insight
Chamath: America attracts driven immigrants who self-select purely by ambition
“I actually think the reason why America so far to the right is it itself selects, not by, you know, some kind of gender, age, or religion, or color of skin. It's motivation. And it's like, if you're motivated to crush, you come to the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2021 ▶ 35:30 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
May 1, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: The US could biomanufacture global animal protein needs for $400B
“We could build that in the United States for about three to four for about three to four hundred billion dollars. And we could build it in a couple of years.”
David Friedberg May 1, 2021 ▶ 59:06 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
May 13, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts US will balkanize into 50 states without centrist leaders
“Otherwise, we are headed to 50 Balkanized States. Operating independently.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 13, 2021 ▶ 57:04 E32: Behind the scenes of Elon hosting SNL, CDC failures, America's real-time UBI experiment & more
May 22, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: US ranks last in math proficiency among 37 developed nations
“Math proficiency in the US, we rank 37 in the world, ok? And there's only 37 developed nations in the world, according to the developed, so we're last among developed countries.”
David Sacks May 22, 2021 ▶ 30:57 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
May 22, 2021
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: US will launch a CBDC within two to three years
“The CBDC that the United States will launch in the next two or three years.”
Jason Calacanis May 22, 2021 ▶ 1:05:01 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
May 31, 2021 negative
What-if
Chamath: Without Trump, US could have investigated COVID-19 origins effectively
“And if anybody but Donald Trump was the president of the United States in that moment, we probably could have had a chance of getting to the bottom of it when it counted.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2021 ▶ 18:09 E34: Wuhan lab leak theory, India's traceability law, Coinbase fact check, Big Tech takes Hollywood
May 31, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sacks: US must decouple critical drug and PPE supply chains from China
“At a minimum, we need to decouple ourselves from China with regard to anything that's a vital American interest. We cannot be dependent on them for the manufacturing of our PPE, for our antibiotics, for our pharmaceuticals.”
David Sacks May 31, 2021 ▶ 16:16 E34: Wuhan lab leak theory, India's traceability law, Coinbase fact check, Big Tech takes Hollywood
Jun 13, 2021
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US will force tax return publication and impose a wealth tax
“And so I think the way the United States is going is we're going to force people to publish their tax records. And we're going to force some sort of minimum for people with holdings, aka wealth tax.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 13, 2021 ▶ 1:06:44 E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, Bitcoin & more
Jul 3, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Study shows COVID lockdowns had no effect on US reproduction rate
“A recent paper showed that lockdowns had no effect. On the reproduction rate in the United States”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 39:27 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 3, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: The US is run by bureaucratic and technocratic hall monitors
“This country just feels like it's being run by a bunch of bureaucratic, technocratic weenies.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:22:50 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jul 16, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: US leads in healthcare spending, yet male life expectancy lags
“We spent more as a percentage of GDP on healthcare than any other Western country in the world. Yet the life expectancy of white men, which is basically the top of the pyramid of healthcare is now sub-eighty years old.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 16, 2021 ▶ 45:33 E40: A Bestie gets COVID, Delta breakthrough, Billionaire Space Race & more
Jul 23, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: U.S. efforts to persuade vaccine-hesitant citizens are a waste
“All these unused doses, we're wasting our breath in the United States trying to get these vaccine hesitant or anti-vax people to get vaccinated.”
David Sacks Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 36:49 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 23, 2021
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Massive COVID-19 vaccine stockpiles are going to waste in US
“There's huge stockpiles of vaccine in the US that are going to waste right now.”
David Sacks Jul 23, 2021 ▶ 14:36 E41: Vaccine policy, Big Tech, DeepMind's latest breakthrough, wealth creation, opportunity & more
Jul 30, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Investment risk in China is now closer to Russia than US
“I would refine what I'm saying by saying it's a distribution of risk where it's closer to Russia now than it is to the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 30, 2021 ▶ 36:32 E42: China's tech crackdown, CRISPR breakthrough, practical climate change solutions & more
Jul 30, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: The US and China look set to decouple financial markets
“And that is why I think you're seeing, you know, giant ripple effects now because I mean, to Chamath's point about decoupling, we now it looks like are going to be decoupling our financial markets.”
David Sacks Jul 30, 2021 ▶ 27:34 E42: China's tech crackdown, CRISPR breakthrough, practical climate change solutions & more
Jul 30, 2021
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: All four top US superconductor researchers surveyed are foreign-born immigrants
“I did a survey of the superconductor space as an example. And here's what I found of the of the four folks that I found Who are all each individually doing things in superconductors that I think are incredible. They're all immigrants. Every single one were not…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 30, 2021 ▶ 1:03:42 E42: China's tech crackdown, CRISPR breakthrough, practical climate change solutions & more
Aug 28, 2021 negative
What-if
Friedberg: US could have produced hundreds of millions of 50-cent tests
“We have the facilities in the US to do it. And we could have made, you know, a 100,000,000,050 cent tests and made them just free and available to schools, to workplaces, to, Everything.”
David Friedberg Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 1:32:07 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
Aug 28, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US spent $6T on nation building in Afghanistan and Iraq
“We spent six trillion dollars on nation building exercises in the Middle East between Afghanistan and Iraq. For what? For naught.”
David Sacks Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 24:43 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
Aug 28, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: 58 US-indexed Chinese firms use VIEs totaling $2T market cap
“VIEs are part of 58 companies massive Chinese mega cap companies that are in the huge indexes in, in the United States. These 58 companies account for two trillion dollars of market cap.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 51:32 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
Aug 28, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: US Afghanistan war was a $2T transfer to military-industrial complex
“I think that we basically engaged in a two trillion dollar wealth transfer from the people of the United States, the citizens of the United States to the military industrial complex. That's what we did.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 21:22 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
Aug 28, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Gurley: SEIU spends more money lobbying than any other US organization
“They spend more money lobbying than any other organization in our country and have for many, many years.”
Bill Gurley Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 1:06:46 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
Sep 14, 2021
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Chamath: US will deploy troops to defend TSMC when China invades Taiwan
“They will invade at Taiwan. I've said this before, but I think that they will, and we will have no choice except to deploy troops into Taiwan, because in the absence of the silicon that we need from TSMC and a couple of other manufacturers there, we have zero …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 46:09 E46: False Ivermectin narratives, regulatory grift, wartime mentality in solving issues & more
Oct 16, 2021 negative
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts global exporter inflation will reach the US and raise prices
“If you're seeing inflation in those other, you know, supply driven economies, they are going to come on shore. They're going to hit us in the face. I think prices are going up.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2021 ▶ 10:47 E51: Supply Chain Shortages, Inflation, DeSantis, Ted Sarandos Netflix Memo, Cancel Culture, Fan Q&A
Oct 30, 2021 neutral
Disclosure
Chamath: I am willing to pay an 80% tax rate in America
“I'm happy to pay whatever tax you want. I feel super blessed to be in America. Whatever. I mean, I'm gonna pay. 30%, 80%, I don't care.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 22:56 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Nov 13, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: High inflation makes the US more likely to escalate foreign tensions
“It's more likely that we would want to increase the tension when we're in an inflationary environment.”
David Friedberg Nov 13, 2021 ▶ 50:00 E55: Valuing crypto projects, Rivian worth $100B+, inflation: causes and corrections and more
Nov 20, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Non-U.S. crypto investments will drive DAO growth, stranding the U.S.
“And then it'll be crypto ex US crypto investments that are going to drive this and that's why the US is going to be left behind.”
David Friedberg Nov 20, 2021 ▶ 7:25 E56: Constitution DAO, Rittenhouse trial coverage, private sector efficiency vs the government
Dec 23, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts the United States will ultimately lose reserve currency status
“It is absolutely critical to understand that the global world order is being reclassified as the United States has taken on too much debt and will ultimately lose its reserve currency status, as we have seen with the transition of five or six empires over the …”
David Friedberg Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 1:26:47 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Jan 15, 2022
Insight
Calacanis asserts early equity participation is required for US wealth mobility
“If we want to have people move from, you know, poor, To middle class from middle class to affluent in this country, there has to be equity participation and equity participation has to start early.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 1:18:38 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
Jan 15, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts U.S. politicians will suppress good news on China for a decade
“I don't think we're going to hear a lot of good news about China for the next decade from any politician in the United States or anyone that wants to defend our political and economic interests globally, which are certainly being challenged by China right now.”
David Friedberg Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 24:39 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
Jan 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg notes the U.S. incarcerates 2.3 million compared to China's 1.7 million
“In the United States, where we have a population of let's be generous and say, four hundred million people, 2.3 1,000,340 1,000,340 million Americans, 2.3 million of whom are incarcerated. In China, with a population of 1.4 1000000001.7 million Chinese are inc…”
David Friedberg Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 26:25 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
Jan 22, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US-China narrative and tension will continue to swell this decade
“The broader China v U S narrative that is swelling and will continue to swell this decade.”
David Friedberg Jan 22, 2022 ▶ 3:36 E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
Jan 29, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sachs: Adding Ukraine or Georgia to NATO provides no US security benefit
“We should not want to add Ukraine or Georgia to NATO. That would do nothing to enhance the security of the United States.”
David Sacks Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 24:35 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Jan 29, 2022 negative
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: US is highly unlikely to send military forces to Ukraine
“I think to Sax's point, it's highly unlikely we're gonna end up sending military.”
David Friedberg Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 20:48 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Feb 5, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Petersen: Operators cannot run a non-union shipping port in the US
“And then but those as a condition of renting the port, you must agree to hire the ILWU. You can't run a non union port in the United States.”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 31:04 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 5, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Transit times from Asian factories to US rose to 115 days
“It's now taking a 115 days on average across our customer base from when the factory says, Hey, these goods are ready. Come pick them up. To when they finally get delivered to a warehouse in the United States. Before the pandemic, that was 50.”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 11:29 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 5, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Petersen: US ports are owned by local cities, unlike Europe's national assets
“So the local cities own the ports in the United States. That is a difference between United States and Europe, for example, where there's sort of national strategic assets.”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 30:32 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 12, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: COVID mandates are most severe government restrictions since WWII
“I don't think that anytime since World War Two, have we seen the government create such restrictions and such mandates in in democratic republics, like the United States, that we just saw over the past two years.”
David Friedberg Feb 12, 2022 ▶ 34:12 E67: Revisiting Rogan, Canadian truckers' protest, fusion breakthrough, $MSFT's savvy move & more
Feb 25, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks claims US was energy independent until fracking was banned
“We could be energy independent for free right now if we were just to repeal some of these executive orders. I mean, we were energy independent like a year or two ago until we banned fracking.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 32:13 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Feb 25, 2022
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Cyber warfare between the US and Russia is beginning
“I do think, and I don't know if we're going to hear more about this today, but I do think that the cyber war is beginning today.”
David Friedberg Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 5:52 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Feb 25, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: US military intervention in Ukraine is not a vital American interest
“However, we are not going to intervene militarily in that conflict, nor should we, because we cannot risk starting World War III. It is not a vital American interest.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 2:36 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Mar 5, 2022
Insight
Sacks: Great powers act ruthlessly against perceived national security threats
“Great powers, whether it's Russia or the Soviet Union or us will behave viciously and ruthlessly towards anything they perceive as a threat to their national security and their vital national security interests.”
David Sacks Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 1:00:26 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Mar 5, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: First Gulf War was America's last actual military victory
“Well, it was also the last war that we actually won. Every other war that we've done has been turned into a fiasco.”
David Sacks Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 1:31:01 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Mar 5, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US will pay several trillion dollars to resolve Ukraine fallout
“Ultimately, the United States is going to have to step up in a really outsized way to solve this problem. And while we might not be sending troops on the ground, we're going to end up paying several trillion dollars.”
David Friedberg Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 1:16:55 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Mar 19, 2022
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Bennett and Macron are leading Russia-Ukraine peace talks, not the US
“The people that are negotiating this peace treaty right now are Naftali Bennett and Emmanuel Macron. So we're not at the table.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 19, 2022 ▶ 13:35 E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more
Mar 19, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US GMO trait approvals take seven to 13 years
“Just to get a single GMO trait approved in the United States today and get it to market can take seven to 13 years.”
David Friedberg Mar 19, 2022 ▶ 26:37 E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more
Mar 19, 2022 neutral
Opinion
David Sacks says China benefits from direct US-Russia conflict
“If you were to look at this from the Chinese standpoint, they must be loving what's going on. Loving it. Old saying, I think Napoleon said it, never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. Why is China So quiet right now. Well, yeah, because they love…”
David Sacks Mar 19, 2022 ▶ 1:11:41 E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more
Mar 26, 2022 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Gerstner: US will not send military to defend Taiwan or Ukraine
“Everybody knows we're not gonna go defend Taiwan. Everybody knows we're not gonna send our military to Ukraine.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 1:19:13 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Apr 1, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath Palihapitiya: U.S. net births fell below 300,000 in 2021
“It was less than 300,000 net births in the entire country.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 16:55 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 1, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks claims the United States has been in seven wars recently
“The United States has been in seven wars.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 2:46 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 1, 2022 negative
Opinion
Calacanis argues TikTok should be banned in the United States
“I think TikTok should be banned.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 1:12:08 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 1, 2022 negative
What-if
Sacks: A deal could have been negotiated to prevent the war in Ukraine
“I strongly believe we could have cut a deal on Ukraine a year ago to diffuse this whole situation before it turned into a war.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 26:05 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 1, 2022 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Immigration is the only short-term solution for U.S. labor shortages
“You're not going to get, you know, families to all of a sudden have kids, you know, that that's a 18 year problem. If you started that problem today to get them into the workforce or 25 year problem. So immigration is really the only solution.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 18:42 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 9, 2022 negative
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Global food crisis will hit Sri Lanka and Africa hard
“The United States is going to be fine. Western Europe will be fine. China will be fine. Sri Lanka is gonna be a mess. Northern and Eastern Africa is gonna be a mess.”
David Friedberg Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 1:07:30 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 9, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Controlling energy, chips, and chemicals secures US dominance for 200 years
“Get those two things completely under us control. On top of energy independence, and honestly, we would be a dominant world power for the next 200 years on our terms.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 1:14:47 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
Apr 9, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: China is the only country capable of challenging US global hegemony
“There's only one country in the world that can do that right now to us, which is China.”
David Sacks Apr 9, 2022 ▶ 1:15:14 E75: Fast shuts down, board culpability, Elon buys 9% of Twitter, deplatforming's evolution & more
May 7, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Only six countries besides US allowed elective abortion past 20 weeks
“At the time of enactment of this Mississippi law, Only six countries beside the United States permitted non-therapeutic or elective abortions on demand after the 20th week of gestation. Those other six countries were Canada, China, the Netherlands, North Korea…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 7, 2022 ▶ 1:15:15 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
May 16, 2022 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Musk predicts China's economy will become up to triple America's size
“What we're going to see was trying to for the first time that anyone can remember who is alive is an economy that is Twice the size of the U S possibly three times the size of the U S”
Elon Musk May 16, 2022 ▶ 1:21:07 Elon Musk: Twitter's bot problem, SpaceX's grand plan, Tesla stories & more
May 24, 2022
Assertion Supported
Thielke: China has one-quarter of US per-capita cold storage capacity
“China only has a quarter Of the cold storage capacity per capita that the US does.”
Claire Cormier Thielke May 24, 2022 ▶ 6:08 E82: All-In Summit: Claire Cormier Thielke on China + Q&A with Flexport's Ryan Petersen
May 25, 2022 negative
Opinion
Greenwald: US foreign policy supports tyranny and props up despots
“The reality is the United States, if you look at what it's actually doing, which is going around the world, and it's always done this, supporting tyranny, not supporting democracy, propping up despots, not fighting them.”
Glenn Greenwald May 25, 2022 ▶ 24:29 #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
May 25, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garcia Martinez: The U.S. is in a proxy war with Russia
“No, we're in a proxy war.”
Antonio Garcia Martinez May 25, 2022 ▶ 16:07 #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
May 25, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: No U.S. president has claimed Ukraine is a vital national interest
“No American president has ever claimed that the United States has a vital national interest. In Ukraine.”
David Sacks May 25, 2022 ▶ 18:18 #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
May 25, 2022 negative
Insight
Garcia Martinez: Old left and new right share anti-U.S. foreign policy
“The last thing I would say is, I think one thing that unites, I think, the old left that you would probably put yourself into, in with Glenn, like a Bernie leftist, and the new right, is that both consider two key things. One, the US can never act abroad in a …”
Antonio Garcia Martinez May 25, 2022 ▶ 14:47 #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
May 27, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Mass public shootings are a uniquely American problem
“I would say that every fucking country on the planet has kids with mental health disorders, but not every country on the planet has kids getting shot up in schools and supermarkets and churches.”
Brad Gerstner May 27, 2022 ▶ 1:19:09 E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
May 29, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Hefets: Top 50% of US households own 99% of total wealth
“99% of wealth, ah, is owned by the top 50%, and the bottom 50% only own one percent of wealth here in the United States.”
Adena Hefets May 29, 2022 ▶ 2:26 #AIS: Divvy Homes CEO Adena Hefets breaks down the state of the US housing market
May 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Litinsky: US mineral reliance on China mirrors Germany's Russian gas dependence
“I think it's a fair analogy to say, That Germany is to Nat gas as we are to China supply chain.”
James Litinsky May 31, 2022 ▶ 17:19 #AIS: MP Materials CEO James Litinsky on rare earths, supply chain, and energy independence
Jun 1, 2022
Assertion Supported
US primary care physicians manage an average of 2,300 patients each
“In, in the across the U S one physician has a panel of 2300 patients on average.”
Tandice Urban Jun 1, 2022 ▶ 19:44 #AIS: The Lanby's Tandice Urban on solving healthcare's customer service problem
Jun 2, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Educational inequality in the U.S. is far greater than wealth inequality
“Education inequality in this country is far greater than the wealth inequality. Far greater.”
Joe Lonsdale Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 5:26 #AIS: Joe Lonsdale on the problem with higher education
Jun 24, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: The U.S. will face economic austerity due to military spending
“We are going to have some form or another of austerity in this country.”
David Sacks Jun 24, 2022 ▶ 1:27:54 E84: Markets update, crypto collapse, Russia/Ukraine endgame, state of the podcast
Jun 24, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: European nations should cover 100% of their defense costs
“They should be picking up a hundred percent of the cost of that. A hundred percent.”
David Sacks Jun 24, 2022 ▶ 1:30:02 E84: Markets update, crypto collapse, Russia/Ukraine endgame, state of the podcast
Jul 8, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US Senate composition prevents agricultural nitrogen emissions regulation
“And in the US, there's just no way a law is going to pass because the US Senate is controlled primarily by rural states, which are ag heavy.”
David Friedberg Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 54:12 E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Jul 8, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: US net international migration has plummeted below one million
“Net international migration has just plummeted. We're well under a million folks coming into the country.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 16:21 E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Jul 14, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: China recorded 6% GDP growth in 2019 versus US 2.1%
“China, for example, 2019, six percent growth us in 2019, 2.1% growth.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 14, 2022 ▶ 2:14 E87: Emerging markets, Sri Lanka, 9.1% CPI, market sentiment, NASA's Webb telescope & more
Jul 14, 2022 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Beagles are the only dogs used for US animal testing
“This is in the United States, we only do animal testing on beagles. They're the only dogs that we do animal testing on because they can put up with pain, and they have a high tolerance and a high threshold for pain.”
David Friedberg Jul 14, 2022 ▶ 1:16:23 E87: Emerging markets, Sri Lanka, 9.1% CPI, market sentiment, NASA's Webb telescope & more
Jul 22, 2022
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: China has 3 million factories compared to 300,000 in the US
“China has about three million factories or manufacturing facilities throughout the country employing about one hundred and twelve million people. The US has about 300,000 factories employing about 12 and a half million people.”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 1:06:16 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Jul 22, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in property
“According to Bloomberg, 70% of household wealth China's tied up in property much higher than the US.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 53:38 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Jul 29, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US entering era of austerity lasting beyond current presidency
“I think we're probably entering an era, an overall era of austerity that lasts more than just this year or even this presidency, and I think we'll look back at all this wasteful spending, this last 10, 20 trillion of spending as money we didn't need to spend t…”
David Sacks Jul 29, 2022 ▶ 59:18 E89: GDP growth negative in Q2, $SHOP layoffs, Alzheimer's fraud, Ginkgo acquires Zymergen & more
Aug 5, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Deglobalization will raise labor, energy, and consumer prices over next decade
“A really important trend, Chamath, unlike That I think is playing out and will play out for the next decade on deglobalization. So as the US tries to build its own semiconductor manufacturing capacity, as China loses key trade partners, as all of these markets…”
David Friedberg Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 34:11 E90: Twitter subpoenas, market overview, Pelosi's Taiwan visit & more
Aug 20, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: US has no strategic interest in proxy war with Russia
“And I think similarly with Russia, we've basically declared ourselves to be engaged in this proxy war with Russia, which strategically, there's just nothing in it for us.”
David Sacks Aug 20, 2022 ▶ 50:20 E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
Sep 1, 2022 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: US electricity costs rose 46% over the last decade
“The cost of electricity has gone up by 46% in the last decade.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 1:01:06 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Sep 1, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: US economy is 15x larger than Russia's, despite their 6000 nukes
“Russia's a much poorer country in the US. We're actually 15 times richer than them. During the Cold War, at their peak, we were only three times richer than them. But we're 15 times richer, but they still got over 6000 nukes.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 1:17:23 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Sep 1, 2022 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Palihapitiya: US electricity costs will double between 2010 and 2030
“It will go up by another 40 odd percent through 2030. So between 20 10 and 20 30, the cost of electricity for every single American will have effectively doubled”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 1:01:17 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Sep 10, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Germany will be the first to capitulate on Russian energy
“Germany will probably be the first to capitulate. But it'll be a combination of the United States and Europe who negotiate some kind of a settlement.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 24:45 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Sep 17, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: U.S. has lost sight of independent American interests in Ukraine
“We're so interested in helping and identifying with the Ukrainians that we've lost sight of an American interest that's separate and independent of Ukraine's desire for self-determination. I can understand and respect Their nationalism and their patriotism, bu…”
David Sacks Sep 17, 2022 ▶ 1:23:29 E96: Adobe acquires Figma for $20B, TPB SPAC, FedEx CEO's recession warning, macro picture & more
Sep 23, 2022 positive
Opinion
Sacks: Iran's revolution has a chance because the US isn't running it
“And you want to know why it has a chance of working? Cause we're not the ones behind it.”
David Sacks Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 1:22:54 E97: SPAC updates, public/private market overview, Putin's end game & more
Oct 1, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: The US will experience a hard landing recession in 2023
“We are going to see a hard landing recession. Something will break in 2023. I hope it doesn't. I hope it doesn't affect a lot of normal people, but it's likely.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 1, 2022 ▶ 28:38 E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more
Oct 22, 2022 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Palihapitiya: US national debt-to-GDP ratio will eventually surpass 300%
“We'll eventually go past 200. Somebody will clamor and, you know, be anxiety riddled, but they'll take some SSRIs. They'll be okay. We'll keep moving forward. Then we'll get to 300%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 1:28:25 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 22, 2022 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2042
Friedberg: US federal tax rates on the wealthiest will exceed 60%
“I don't see a world where we don't have over 60% tax rates on the wealthiest people in this country at a federal level.”
David Friedberg Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 1:26:10 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Nov 12, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Only 6% of Americans qualify as accredited investors
“Only six percent of this country fall into the qualified purchaser and accredited.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 1:02:05 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Nov 12, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: 2020 Georgia Senate runoff cost the US $10 trillion
“I think the Georgia Senate runoff race that we had. In the 20 20 election cost the US 10 trillion dollars.”
David Friedberg Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 13:54 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Nov 12, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: 95% of crypto trading volume is outside the US
“95% of the trading volume in crypto is now outside the United States, and it's come down a lot since the beginning of this year even.”
Brian Armstrong Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 37:45 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
Nov 19, 2022
What-if
Chamath: Extending US debt maturities earlier would have saved trillions
“But in hindsight, that one move would have saved us trillions of dollars over the next decade if we had done it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 35:42 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Nov 19, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts a major US fiscal crisis in 10-15 years
“I'm, I think it's the most kind of scary set of facts and conditions that we're getting set up for. Kind of a major crisis, 10 to 15 years from now. Because you can't afford all the debt that we've taken on as a country, as well as the entitlement, as well as …”
David Friedberg Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 20:17 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Dec 3, 2022 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Granting China MFN status and open trade access was a mistake
“However, with China in particular, I think we made a mistake in throwing open our markets to their products, giving them MFN status while most favored nation enriching them to the point where they became a peer competitor, the United States.”
David Sacks Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 58:00 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Dec 3, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: China's reopening will significantly impact US economic growth and inflation
“So, you know, the Chinese growth engine is coming back, and I think that that's going to be an important factor economically that we're going to have to figure out because it's going to have a huge implication to American growth and American inflation.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 3, 2022 ▶ 1:07:10 E106: SBF's media strategy, FTX culpability, ChatGPT, SaaS slowdown & more
Dec 16, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Commercial fusion energy would shift geopolitical power to the US
“So if all of a sudden you're talking about turning energy into a software problem or an innovation problem, That looks a lot more like the software industry. That's an area where the United States has a huge advantage. And yeah, I think it would pull the rug o…”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 41:45 E108: Doxing debate, Nuclear fusion breakthrough, state of the markets & more
Dec 24, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Sacks: Zombie Thatcherism and Reaganism are not electorally viable
“I think zombie Thatcherism is not going to be electorally viable In the UK, just like zombie Reaganism is not going to be viable in the United States.”
David Sacks Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 58:45 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Jan 20, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Broad US immigration reform requires southern border control first
“There's not going to be a broad-based constituency in this country for the type of immigration reform you're talking about until you get the southern border under control.”
David Sacks Jan 20, 2023 ▶ 1:00:21 E112: Is Davos a grift? Plus: globalist mishaps, debt ceilings, TikTok's endgame & more
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: The US destroyed Nord Stream and shifted Europe to American gas
“We've prevented Russia from taking over Ukraine. We've prevented, we've basically shifted Europe onto American natural gas. We've destroyed Nord Stream. I think we're close to achieving our major objectives.”
David Sacks Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 1:22:13 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Feb 11, 2023
Opinion
Sacks: Hersh report alleging U.S. Nord Stream sabotage is plausible
“I lean towards thinking it's more plausible than not.”
David Sacks Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 10:10 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 24, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Trump was the only modern U.S. president avoiding new wars
“He was really the only president, I think, in modern history, right? Saxy Pooh, that hasn't gotten us embroiled in a new war?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:12:01 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 negative
What-if
Sacks: Ukraine war would not have happened with three specific US concessions
“If we had just done those three things, there would have been no war.”
David Sacks Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:07:59 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Putin seized Crimea in direct retaliation for a U.S.-backed coup
“If you're wondering why Putin seized Crimea, it was in direct retaliation for the coup that we backed in Ukraine in 2014. This is the origin of the conflict.”
David Sacks Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:19:00 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: U.S. relations with India have deteriorated since the Ukraine war
“India is the biggest democracy in the world, and our relations with them have gone south since this war because they have a friendship with Russia that goes back the wrong way.”
David Sacks Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:23:12 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Mar 3, 2023 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath predicts TikTok will be banned in the United States
“Will it be banned? Yes, because it's the most obvious cultural way to pick a fight with China without actually picking a fight with China.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 1:25:58 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 3, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: US has consumed 9 years of Stingers and 5 of Javelins
“We've used something like nine years of stingers and five years of javelins, and we're running out of ammunition.”
David Sacks Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 1:36:56 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 17, 2023 negative
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts U.S. recession and complete withdrawal of Ukraine war funding
“I think we all agree the soft landing concept is over. We're going to be in a recession. The war is going to end there because we're not funding this and American, the American public is not going to want to see tens of billions of dollars going to Ukraine and…”
Jason Calacanis Mar 17, 2023 ▶ 1:25:40 E120: Banking crisis and the great VC reset
Mar 17, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US tax rates will rise significantly over the next decade
“I think the only stopgap, I'll just say one thing, the only stopgap in the next decade is going to be significantly higher tax rates in the United States.”
David Friedberg Mar 17, 2023 ▶ 35:46 E120: Banking crisis and the great VC reset
Mar 24, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: TikTok will be shut down in the US, not divested
“I think it'll be shut down. I think they're getting kicked out of the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 1:24:53 E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
Mar 24, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: Auditing TikTok's code and moving US data centers is technically possible
“And if you truly can't move the servers to the United States and vet the code base, I feel like you could, I think you could have an acquirer figure it out, you know, vet the code base, move the data centers, make sure there's no back doors. I think it's not i…”
David Sacks Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 1:25:11 E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
Apr 7, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: US debt growth will not trigger a crisis in our lifetimes
“I think that debt to GDP will continue to rise, not just for us, but for every other country in the world whose fate is worse than the United States. And I think that on a relative basis, the United States will continue to be exceptional. And that this will no…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 7, 2023 ▶ 52:45 E123: Trump indictment, de-dollarization, should VCs back Chinese AI? RIP Bob Lee
Apr 7, 2023 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Friedberg predicts US will see 70% tax rates on wealthiest people
“I still think I still think we'll end up seeing 70% tax rates on the wealthiest people.”
David Friedberg Apr 7, 2023 ▶ 47:57 E123: Trump indictment, de-dollarization, should VCs back Chinese AI? RIP Bob Lee
Apr 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Chamath: US will IP block foreign traffic from non-regulated AI jurisdictions
“I think that what you're going to see is that if you, for example, try to VPN and run it out of like Tajikistan back to the United States, it's not going to take years for us to figure out that we need to IP block rando shit coming in, push and pull requests f…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 49:21 E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update
Apr 14, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US restrictions on AI will drive tech advancement overseas
“And so if the U.S. Does try to regulate Or does try to put the brakes on the development of tools where the US can have kind of a great economic benefit and a great economic interest. There will be advances made elsewhere, without a doubt. And those markets an…”
David Friedberg Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 42:18 E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
RFK Jr.: US had 4.2% of global population but 16% of COVID deaths
“We had 4.2% of the world's population. We had 16% of the COVID deaths.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 50:33 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
RFK Jr.: US spent $16 trillion on COVID lockdowns and got nothing
“We spent 16 trillion dollars on the pandemic, on the lockdown, and again, got nothing in return.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 28:36 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
RFK Jr.: U.S. spent $8 trillion on the Iraq War
“We spent eight trillion dollars in the war in Iraq. Eight trillion dollars, and we got nothing for it.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 27:57 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
RFK Jr.: U.S. war with China over Taiwan would probably be bloodiest ever
“Because you're committing the country To a war in the future, that would be probably the bloodiest war ever fought.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 18:27 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
RFK Jr.: US borrows $6B daily mainly for interest on national debt
“I, you know, right now we're borrowing six six billion dollars a day, mainly from the Chinese and Japanese, just to serve the interest on that debt.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 22:38 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
RFK Jr.: US and New Zealand are only countries allowing pharma TV ads
“There's only two nations in the world that allow pharmaceutical advertising on TV. One is New Zealand and the other is the United States.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:29:01 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
RFK Jr.: Americans consume 3 to 4 times more pharmaceutical drugs than Europeans
“We take three to four times The amount of pharmaceutical drugs as a European takes, and we have the worst health results.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:29:13 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
RFK Jr.: Pharma drugs are America's third leading cause of death
“And also pharmaceutical drugs, the third biggest killer of Americans after cancer and heart attack”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:29:24 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 5, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
RFK Jr.: Stopping U.S. provocations toward China would de-escalate Taiwan tension
“And I think that that, that if we stopped our provocations toward the Chinese, that that would naturally de-escalate.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 18:03 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
May 12, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts inflation and money supply growth will inflate US assets
“The practical reality is I'm on the opposite side, which says the governments will keep spending. Inflation will be here. Assets will keep inflating. The M two money supply will keep going up. And on general long the United States in short, every other country…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 12, 2023 ▶ 31:02 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 12, 2023 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Palihapitiya predicts the US will issue 50-year and 100-year Treasury bonds
“So we'll have 50 year US bonds. We'll have a hundred year US bonds.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 12, 2023 ▶ 39:58 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 12, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg warns rising debt service will inevitably force a US default
“And when you do the arithmetic on all this, it's going to balloon the cost to service the debt and without some degree of cutting across the board spending and entitlement programs, discretionary spending and entitlement programs, you can't make the interest p…”
David Friedberg May 12, 2023 ▶ 25:06 E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more
May 19, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Mortgage rates locking in homeowners will slow interstate migration
“I think over the last few years during COVID, you saw tremendous movement between states. I think that's going to slow down a lot now because people just can't afford to trade houses.”
David Sacks May 19, 2023 ▶ 1:09:37 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 26, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: S&P's 2011 U.S. debt downgrade had no negative impact
“August fifth, 2011. The SMP downgraded the United States from triple A to double A plus. You know what happened? Absolutely fucking nothing.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 26, 2023 ▶ 29:17 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
May 26, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: The U.S. has been at war two-thirds of the post-Cold War era
“We've been at war for something like two out of every three years since the cold war ended.”
David Sacks May 26, 2023 ▶ 48:37 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
May 26, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US is more likely to raise taxes than cut spending
“We're more likely to see taxes go up in order to bridge the gap to continue to fund programs that everyone wants”
David Friedberg May 26, 2023 ▶ 45:19 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
Jun 2, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US will remain the world's leading innovation hub
“The US will continue to be the innovation hub of the world. The US will continue to have freedom and civil rights that no other country can parallel.”
David Friedberg Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 1:01:42 E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more
Jun 2, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US will win in chips, material science, batteries, biotech
“We're probably gonna win chips, and we're gonna probably win material science and batteries, and we're obviously gonna win biotech.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 1:05:09 E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more
Jun 2, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks claims the United States is behaving like a late-stage empire
“The United States is behaving like a late stage empire.”
David Sacks Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 1:08:06 E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more
Jun 2, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: The era of septuagenarian and octogenarian US presidents should end
“I personally believe that the era of septuagenarians and octogenarians should come to an end in terms of their ability to run this country.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 19:59 E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more
Jun 24, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks says China, Russia, and Iran out-manufacture the US in weapons
“They actually have more manufacturing capacity to produce weapons of war and munitions and ammo than the United States does.”
David Sacks Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 32:47 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: US economic decoupling from China is a farce
“This idea that we're going to decouple the world never have to deal with these folks, right, is just a farce.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 44:02 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner predicts US reliance on Taiwan semiconductors ends in five years
“I think most of the wealthy families I've talked to from Taiwan believe that five or six years from now, the US will no longer be in the position where they will need Taiwan and Taipei as much as they do today.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 49:52 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jun 24, 2023
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Sacks: US artillery shell production won't reach 90k monthly until 2028
“They're trying to ramp it up to 90,000 a month, but that's going to take till 2028 because, you know, it takes time to build it.”
David Sacks Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 31:36 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 9, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Upgraded US radar system led to Chinese balloon detection
“There was an upgrade to the domestic radar system. Where they increase the resolution and the frequency of capture of these radar images. So they were starting to pick up more fine-tuned, smaller objects that were otherwise being missed, including things like …”
David Friedberg Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:23:51 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Pentagon confirms Chinese balloon collected no US intelligence
“Pentagon Presbytery Brigadier General Pat Ryder said the balloon not only did not transmit data back to China and never collected any. And he said, we're aware that it had intelligence collection capabilities, but it has been our assessment now that it did not…”
David Sacks Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:22:49 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US-China tensions will escalate and come to a head within decades
“Clearly this is part of a continuous escalation cycle that may take a years, may take a decade or two but ultimately there's going to be a point where this all comes to a head.”
David Friedberg Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:29:11 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Canada launched digital nomad and work visas targeting U.S. H-1B holders
“In Canada last week you know, the government announced an aggressive push to recruit technology workers from around the world to Canada, so they made it easier for tech workers to get what they are calling a digital nomad visa, so you can now go and work you k…”
Brad Gerstner Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:10:33 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 9, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Concern over China as a threat will fade within 5 to 10 years
“I just think that dollars tend to lead these things, and I think that in the next five to six years, five to 10 years, we're not going to be talking about China the same way we are today.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 9, 2023 ▶ 1:31:19 E136: Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration, balloon farce, heart health
Jul 14, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Adding countries to NATO is a liability, not an asset, for the US
“Every time you add a country to NATO, you're making a commitment for Americans to have to go defend that country. And I would argue that's a liability, not an asset for America.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 1:17:03 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Jul 14, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: US gave cluster bombs to Ukraine because conventional ammo ran out
“If you're wondering why did the U.S. Give cluster bombs to Ukraine, it's because we're out of ammo to give, and it's all we've got left are these stockpiles of cluster munitions.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 1:11:08 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Jul 14, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Inflation and spending will drive higher interest rates in U.S. and EU
“Over time that translates into a way to manage the inflation, but also to raise the capital, which means you have to pay higher rates. And this is in the EU and the U S that it seems this is going to be the case.”
David Friedberg Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 20:10 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
Jul 21, 2023
Disclosure
Ramaswamy: U.S. should defend Taiwan only until achieving semiconductor independence
“I would at least until the US has achieved semiconductor independence.”
Vivek Ramaswamy Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 37:19 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Jul 27, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US faces over $1T in underfunded union-negotiated pensions
“There's probably over a trillion dollars of underfunded pension liabilities in the United States, many of which are based on the fact that these payout principles were defined By some negotiation with a union.”
David Friedberg Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 1:02:31 E139: Recapping Chamath's wedding, VC surplus, unions vs Hollywood, room-temp superconductors & more
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks claims seven million undocumented immigrants entered US over two years
“They got seven million in the last two and a half years.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:01:21 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 4, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Indicting Trump will make the U.S. more polarized and hyper-partisan
“It's going to make this country more polarized and hyper-partisan, and it's not going to help us move past this era of our politics”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:27:17 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Aug 18, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Top 20% U.S. earnings up 60% since mid-1990s, bottom 80% flat
“So the top five percent of earners in the U.S. You know, since, call it the mid-nineties, have seen a near doubling of their earnings. The top quintile, which is the top 20% of earners in the United States, have seen their earnings climb by 60% since that time…”
David Friedberg Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 24:04 E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO
Aug 18, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: U.S. has lowest lifetime unemployment rate outside wartime
“We have the lowest unemployment in the history of this country, in our lifetime, I should say and wars aside.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 20:04 E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO
Sep 1, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: 70% of the world blames the US equally for Ukraine
“70% of the world's population does not believe this narrative about the Ukraine war. They understand that the U.S. Is at least equally responsible for this war.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 57:57 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 1, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: US regulation and NIMBYism make domestic nuclear power inviable
“The regulatory support in the United States for nuclear is so constipated that it's impossible to get it done. So you could have the greatest technology in the world. I just don't see how the laws change fast enough and the zoning changes fast enough and the N…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 53:02 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 1, 2023 bearish
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: China is constructing 21 nuclear power plants while US has one
“21 nuclear power plants are being constructed at this moment in China, eight in India. United States only has one, which is kind of an extension.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 52:13 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 1, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US and India will align security interests against China
“I think India and the U S will pull tighter together in terms of security because of a mutual desire to balance the power of China.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 48:57 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 1, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: BRICS nations seek independence from US, not to harm US economy
“Most of those countries are very important trade partners with the US and very dependent on, on trade with the US. It seems less that it's about, hey, we've got to hurt the US and it's more about we have to be independent from the US.”
David Friedberg Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 42:05 E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more
Sep 12, 2023 positive
Opinion
Ro Khanna: US should maintain strategic ambiguity and One China policy
“I am clearly of the belief that we should continue with the strategic ambiguity in one China policy.”
Ro Khanna Sep 12, 2023 ▶ 3:27 All-In Summit: Ro Khanna on China, political reform, major challenges facing the US and more
Sep 12, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Khanna: US shifted from top steel exporter to top importer
“We went from the largest exporter of steel to the largest importer of steel.”
Ro Khanna Sep 12, 2023 ▶ 10:47 All-In Summit: Ro Khanna on China, political reform, major challenges facing the US and more
Sep 12, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Nine of the world's top 15 steel companies are Chinese
“Nine out of the 15 top steel companies are in China. We don't have a single one.”
Ro Khanna Sep 12, 2023 ▶ 10:58 All-In Summit: Ro Khanna on China, political reform, major challenges facing the US and more
Sep 13, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 7:11 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 13, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: China's military strength around Taiwan will soon surpass the US
“There will come a point if, you know, probably not, in the not too distant future, where China's military strength in that region far except exceeds US military strength in that region.”
Elon Musk Sep 13, 2023 ▶ 35:14 Elon Musk: Ukraine, X, the creator economy, China, AI, & more | All-In Summit 2023
Sep 16, 2023
Assertion Contradicted
Gurley: UK 'loser pays' rule results in 90% less litigation
“They have some clever policies like losing party pays, which causes one-tenth Of the litigation that we have.”
Bill Gurley Sep 16, 2023 ▶ 30:27 All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles
Sep 16, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Dodd-Frank halted the creation of new US banks
“Number of new banks in the US, 2009, nothing. Dodd-Frank. Like, that's what happens.”
Bill Gurley Sep 16, 2023 ▶ 10:57 All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles
Sep 17, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dalio: Pre-WW1 and WW2 profits made the US the world's richest country
“It was before, on World War II and World War I, the United States became the richest country because of the money it made before it entered the war.”
Ray Dalio Sep 17, 2023 ▶ 26:20 All-In Summit: Ray Dalio on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order
Sep 17, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dalio: U.S. opportunity and educational gaps are wider than ever
“So if you take all those measures and so on, the gaps in those things are greater than they have ever been.”
Ray Dalio Sep 17, 2023 ▶ 30:31 All-In Summit: Ray Dalio on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order
Sep 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dalio: Neutral nations like India will benefit from US-China conflict
“So as we have this conflict between the United States and China and its allies, Russia, and so on, as we see that line up, countries that are in the middle, like India, are gonna be net beneficiaries of that.”
Ray Dalio Sep 17, 2023 ▶ 16:36 All-In Summit: Ray Dalio on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order
Sep 18, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Summers: 14% of prime-age American men are currently not working
“We used to be a country, 60 years ago, where four percent of men between 25 and 54 were not working, and now we're a country where 14% are not working at any point in time, and a quarter of them don't work for more than three months Almost within a two year pe…”
Larry Summers Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 22:39 All-In Summit: In conversation with Larry Summers
Sep 18, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Summers: US holds a stronger long-term geopolitical position than China
“But I'd rather be playing the hand of the United States than the hand that Xi Jinping is playing, than the hand that India is playing. Certainly than the hand that societies in Asia where they're only going to be half as many people a century from now are play…”
Larry Summers Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 19:13 All-In Summit: In conversation with Larry Summers
Sep 20, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allison: Avoiding US-China war requires accommodation of China's influence
“Will there come to be some degree of difference and accommodation, if a war is to be avoided? And the answer is yes.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 27:33 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Sep 20, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allison: US would lose a direct contest against China without allies
“If the U.S. Had to play this game only U.S. Versus China, I think we lose.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 19:35 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Sep 20, 2023
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Allison: 90% chance no US-China war in next four years
“So if you ask me bottom line quickly, a war between the US and China in the year ahead? No. I'll give you 99% of that one. War between the US and China the next four years? No. I'd say 90%. Ah, no.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 7:16 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Sep 21, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Armstrong: Coinbase is not leaving the United States
“Well, we're not leaving America, that's for sure.”
Brian Armstrong Sep 21, 2023 ▶ 2:24 All-In Summit: In conversation with Brian Armstrong
Sep 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Armstrong: Gensler and Warren do not want crypto in the US
“Right, along with Elizabeth Warren, who, they just don't want crypto to exist in the United States.”
Brian Armstrong Sep 21, 2023 ▶ 4:03 All-In Summit: In conversation with Brian Armstrong
Sep 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
Armstrong: US banking sector is quasi-nationalized
“They have, in the US, our banks are more privatized than, say, China or most other countries, but they're quasi-nationalized in the US.”
Brian Armstrong Sep 21, 2023 ▶ 8:31 All-In Summit: In conversation with Brian Armstrong
Oct 7, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: China is building 450 nuclear fission power plants to America's zero
“Meanwhile, you see China building 450 nuclear fission stations and the US building none.”
David Friedberg Oct 7, 2023 ▶ 56:49 E148: McCarthy ousted, border chaos, Cruise's robotaxi "accident" & more
Oct 13, 2023 bearish
Assertion Supported
Sacks: China has the capacity to out-produce the U.S. in weaponry
“China is now a superpower. They're probably the low-cost manufacturer of the world, so when we talk about being able to make things like armaments and artillery shells and weapons, they have the ability to out-produce us.”
David Sacks Oct 13, 2023 ▶ 56:39 E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
Oct 13, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks notes U.S. artillery shells cost ten times more than Russia's
“There's an article recently in the New York Times where it said that the cost of the United States of producing an artillery shell is 6000 dollars. For Russia, it's 600 dollars. So in other words, it costs the US 10 times what it costs Russia to produce an art…”
David Sacks Oct 13, 2023 ▶ 47:30 E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
Oct 13, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: U.S. transferred its Israel-based artillery stockpile to Ukraine
“Earlier this year, we used to have an ammunition stockpile in Israel. The United States did. It belonged to us, but it was there potentially in case of a problem in the region. And that artillery stockpile was basically taken and given to Ukraine.”
David Sacks Oct 13, 2023 ▶ 50:16 E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
Oct 20, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Tech companies will likely apply EU censorship policies in the US
“There is a risk that these same policies get applied in the US. That is what happened with privacy. Remember, Europe went first with GDPR, and then a lot of those regulations came to America. Now, the first amendment may stand in the way here, but there is som…”
David Sacks Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 59:06 E150: Israel/Gaza escalating or not? EU censorship regime, Penn donors revolt, GLP-1 hype cycle
Nov 3, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Regulating US AI will cause the US to fall behind China and India
“If we don't allow our market to develop in the United States, India, and China, and Singapore, and other markets will get well ahead of us in terms of their model development and their capabilities as a nation and their capabilities as an industry.”
David Friedberg Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 50:18 E152: Real estate chaos, WeWork bankruptcy, Biden regulates AI, Ukraine's “Cronkite Moment” & more
Nov 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kushner: Russia was second country to send U.S. COVID supplies
“When we were in kind of our worst moments in COVID, the second country that sent us a plane load of supplies and ventilators when New York looked like it was, you know, on the verge of going under was Russia.”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 1:28:44 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 17, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Phillips: 25% of Americans are covered by single-payer healthcare systems
“Between Medicare and the VA, which are single-payer systems, 25% of Americans right now are covered by a single-payer system”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 1:05:39 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Nov 17, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Phillips: US national health insurance program would not require tax increase
“The money's in the system. Would not require a tax increase. I think we could actually save substantial money.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 1:05:16 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Nov 17, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Dean Phillips: US operates 750 bases across 80 countries worldwide
“We have 750 bases and installations around the world in 80 countries.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 35:12 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Nov 17, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Phillips: US pays teachers about 81% of per capita GDP
“The United States of America right now, we pay about 81% Of the per capita GDP to teachers for compensation.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 1:11:14 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Opinion
Tucker Carlson argues that the United States is not a democracy
“This is not a democracy. It's not even a sort of decent facsimile of a democracy. It's, to call it a democracy is, like, It was ridiculous, actually.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 11:37 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 1, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tucker Carlson: US cannot withstand an economic crisis without national cohesion
“If that happened now, when there is no broad agreement on what it means to be an American, no agreement at all on what we all have in common, I don't think we can withstand it. Actually, I really don't, and I'm not even convinced it matters as much what that c…”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 18:56 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Tucker Carlson claims up to 70 million illegal immigrants reside in US
“Some estimates, 60, seventy million. Those are real estimates, by the way, not crackpot estimates.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 57:49 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 1, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Abandoning national unity sets America up for violent conflict
“I think that's we've set ourselves up for something really, really scary for, again, for violent conflict, because I don't see how that, that resolves itself.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 29:57 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Dec 29, 2023 bearish
Assertion Supported
Chamath: US excess deaths in 2023 spiked 20-26% among young adults
“158,000 more Americans died than expected, which is more than all the wars combined in Vietnam, and when you look at where those death rates are, those death rates were coming from 35 to 44 year olds, which was up 26%, and 25 to 34 year olds, which was up 20% …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 1:04:27 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Jan 6, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Sachs: US added $2 trillion to debt, reaching $34 trillion total
“We added like two trillion to the debt. The debt's now 34 trillion.”
David Sacks Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 1:06:27 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 13, 2024 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
David Sacks Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 2:06 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Jan 13, 2024 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks: US airstrikes won't deter Houthis, will trigger direct US retaliation
“I mean, the Houthis have been at war on and off With the Saudis for a decade, and the Saudis been backed by Western weapons, and we have not been able to defeat the Houthis. So this missile strike last night is not gonna deter them. It's not gonna stop them. T…”
David Sacks Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 6:54 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Jan 13, 2024
Assertion Supported
Chamath: US energy independence stems from policies under Obama and Trump
“And a lot of that developed under two presidents, Obama and Trump, and both of them deserve a lot of credit because we have a capability now. To be self-sufficient and we are a net exporter because of the work that happened during that time.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 29:30 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Jan 13, 2024
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops to lowest level since 1983
“So we have about three hundred and fifty million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve today. That's down from Call it early 21 when we were at six hundred and fifty million barrels. And, you know, it was pretty much at that level for decades after the bu…”
David Friedberg Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 24:12 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Feb 2, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US strikes on Iran could trigger five-front regional war
“Depending on the action they choose, we could very rapidly find ourselves engaged in a wider regional war on five different fronts. I mean, a war with Iran would involve us in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, where we're already bombing.”
David Sacks Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 1:19:18 E164: Zuck’s Senate apology, Elon's comp package voided, crony capitalism, Reddit IPO, drone attack
Feb 17, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: The US reneged on promise to Gorbachev not to expand NATO
“The US reneged on this promise to Gorbachev not to expand NATO one inch eastward. And instead we began multiple waves of NATO expansion.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 1:39:10 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Mar 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sacks: US is within its rights to force TikTok divestment
“Nonetheless, I do agree that for data collection reasons and reciprocity reasons, I think it's, like I said, we're within our rights to require the divestment of TikTok.”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:18:13 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Insight
Luckey: Ban TikTok based on strict trade reciprocity, not culture wars
“Practically speaking, you should not make this a culture war issue. Don't talk about how it's ruining our youth ideals. Just say strictly on a trade basis. Yes. We cannot allow them to sell this thing to us if we can't sell the same thing to them.”
Palmer Luckey Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:11:54 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Foreign adversaries' apps require market reciprocity to operate in the US
“Until we can have our apps in a market. They shouldn't have their apps here. And I think that should be the end of it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 53:35 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Mar 29, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2099
Chamath: US population will reach ~400M by end of century while others halve
“The United States is we are the only Western country that is forecasted to grow at reasonable rates above our replacement population. And so, you know, by the end of this century will be around 404 hundred odd million individuals, and other countries will have…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 29, 2024 ▶ 1:05:02 E172: SBF gets 25 years, Trump's meme stock, RFK Jr picks VP, Biden's 2025 budget & more
Apr 9, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ray Dalio: US, China, and India are shifting the global world order
“I think the basic picture in China, ah, the United States, the emergence of India, and so on, is when the world order is going to change in a very profound way.”
Ray Dalio Apr 9, 2024 ▶ 3:07 All-In Summit 2023 Recap
Apr 12, 2024
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: China controls 79% of global lithium-ion battery production
“Today, 79% of lithium ion battery production comes out of China. The US is only 6.2% of global lithium ion battery production.”
David Friedberg Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 1:17:17 E174: Inflation stays hot, AI disclosure bill, Drone warfare, defense startups & more
Apr 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: No other country forces companies to amortize R&D expenses
“There's no other country in the world that does this. Every other country in the world tries to incentivize investment in innovation.”
David Friedberg Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 1:08:59 Google fires protestors, NPR chaos, Humane's AI Pin, Startup tax crisis, sports betting scandal
May 17, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Reserve currency status alone prevents US bankruptcy and hyperinflation
“The only reason we haven't gone broke or experienced hyperinflation is because we're the world's reserve currency.”
David Sacks May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:05:29 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Jun 14, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: US ChatGPT web traffic dropped 25-26% after school year ended
“The traffic in the United States is down about 25, 26% since the end of the school year, which I think reinforces this belief that ChatGPT has definitely over indexed in that young people's cohort where they rely on it to write essays or what have you.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 57:01 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Jun 20, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Trump predicts all electric cars will eventually be manufactured in China
“The electric cars, they're going to end up all being made in China, by the way, they're not going to be made here.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 11:21 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Trump claims Apple brought hundreds of billions back to the U.S.
“And they were able to bring back, I mean, Apple's an example. They brought hundreds of billions of dollars back from other countries into the United States and invested it here.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 4:06 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Trump claims Paris Accord required $1T from US while China paid nothing
“The Paris Accord was a disaster for us. We were going to pay a trillion dollars, and other countries were paying nothing. Russia was paying nothing. China was paying nothing. It didn't even kick in for China until 2030, whereas with us it kicked in immediately…”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 38:37 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US is adding $1 trillion in federal debt every 100 days
“It took us 200 years as a country to add a trillion dollars to our Federal debt to go from zero to a trillion, and now we're adding a trillion every hundred days”
David Friedberg Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 54:33 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Trump claims coal ashes from China blow over the US in 3.5 days
“China's burning all the coal, and they're sending the coal, They're sending the ashes over the United States, because that's what happens. Takes three and a half days, and it blows over the United States.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 17:34 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 20, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Trump says U.S. paid $500M to WHO while China paid $39M
“One of the things I can tell you, the World Health Organization, so we pay them almost five hundred million dollars, and China pays them thirty nine million dollars.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 35:45 In conversation with President Trump
Jul 26, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: U.S. electricity costs up to three times more than China
“Today, just to give you a sense of the relative cost of electricity, China's about seven to nine cents a kilowatt hour. The US is 17 to 25 cents a kilowatt hour.”
David Friedberg Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 1:28:57 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Jul 26, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: China will beat U.S. industrially without U.S. nuclear deregulation
“This is why investing in and deregulating nuclear reactor technology in the United States to enable a competitive playing field with the United States and China in the decades ahead is so critical, because if we don't, China will beat the United States industr…”
David Friedberg Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 1:35:36 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Aug 2, 2024 bearish
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: The United States is currently in an economic recession
“I think we're in a recession”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 34:23 Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Aug 9, 2024 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: US is in a recession that will be obvious in Q3/Q4 2024
“I think we're in a recession. It probably becomes more obvious in Q three and Q four.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 30:44 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 23, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Sovereign funds will emerge to pay exit taxes for US entrepreneurs
“I think what'll happen is funds, governments, et cetera, for the right entrepreneurs with the right assets will help you pay the exit tax so that you can just leave the United States. And that's going to be an investment class that's going to emerge in my opin…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 1:27:18 Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Aug 23, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Extreme US wealth taxes will drive founders and companies abroad
“So we don't need to guess what's going to happen, because if it can happen between California and Texas, it probably stands to reason it can happen between the United States and the UAE, as an example.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 1:09:40 Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: US suffered 20% erosion in purchasing power over four years
“In other words, we've had 20% erosion and purchasing power over the last four years.”
David Sacks Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 57:59 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sep 10, 2024
Assertion Contradicted
Vance claims there are 25 million illegal immigrants in the US
“Because you have twenty-five million illegal aliens in this country, and you like, you can't fix what I would call the minor or sort of less important immigration question until you fix the real problem.”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 26:34 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 13, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel predicts US and Chinese economies will decouple
“My intuition for, you know, what is going to happen without making any normative judgments at all is it is going to decouple.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 12:33 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
Sep 13, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: Declaring US won't defend Taiwan would prompt immediate Chinese invasion
“If you if you if you say we want some guardrails and we won't defend Taiwan, then they'd get invaded right away.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 7:51 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
Sep 16, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mearsheimer: The US is the world's only regional hegemon
“The United States is a regional hegemon. It's the only regional hegemon on the planet.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 25:06 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: U.S. attempts to contain China will cause World War III
“If you try to prevent them from being a regional hegemon, we're going to end up in world war three, because as you say yourself, that this can absolutely spill over into war.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 34:01 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Mearsheimer: Netanyahu is trying to draw US into war with Iran
“And it's the Israelis, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, has been, who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war, because he wants us, the United States, To really whack Iran, weaken it militarily, and especially to go after its nuclear capabilities, because …”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 52:50 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: U.S. restrictions on China have created zero manufacturing jobs
“Is it leading to, ah, is it, by the way, recuperating American manufacturing jobs? Zero.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 41:47 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Mearsheimer: Russia is not a serious threat to the U.S.
“With regard to Russia, I don't think Russia is a serious threat to the United States. And indeed, I think the United States should have good relations with Putin. It's a remarkably foolish policy to push him into the arms of the Chinese.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 20:26 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Mearsheimer: Turning China into a democracy will not happen
“Not going to happen. We tried it actually, and I thought it was foolish to even pursue a policy of engagement toward China.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 20:19 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: U.S. is close to nuclear war due to an escalatory foreign policy mindset
“I deeply believe we're close to nuclear war because we have a mindset that leads us in that direction. We have a mindset that everything is a challenge for survival and that escalation is therefore always the right approach.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 28:34 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024
Insight
Mearsheimer: The U.S. should prioritize national interest, even if aligning with dictators
“I think that what the United States should do is worry about its own national interest. In some cases that's going to involve align ourselves with a dictator.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 14:18 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: A conflict with China would destroy California's tech economy
“Yeah, it would wreck California for one thing. It would destroy the economy that you guys are making completely.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 22:13 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Sachs: US committed to stay out of Taiwan in three China agreements
“We have three agreements with China that say we're gonna stay out of that.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 31:38 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachs: U.S. is in a direct war with Russia
“So this to me is the most definitive fact of our lives, which is we are now in a war, direct war, not proxy war, direct war with Russia, which has 6000 nuclear warheads.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 43:28 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Insight
Mearsheimer: Conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East hinder U.S. Asia pivot
“And furthermore, by getting bogged down in Ukraine, and now bogged down in the Middle East, it's become very difficult for us to pivot to Asia to deal with China, which is the principal threat that we face.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 21:13 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: India will not ally with the U.S. against China
“By the way, I don't believe India is an ally. India is a superpower. India is going to have its own very distinctive interests. Thank you. It's not going to be an ally of the United States. I happen to like India enormously and we're making their policies, but…”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 39:01 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Mearsheimer: China is America's primary peer competitor and greatest threat
“China is a peer competitor to the United States. It's the most serious threat to the United States. Russia is the weakest of those three great powers, and it's not a serious threat to us.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 20:46 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mearsheimer: U.S.-China conflict more likely in South China Sea than Taiwan
“The place where a conflict is most likely today is not over Taiwan. I could explain why I think Taiwan is not a serious problem at the moment or for the foreseeable future. The South China Sea is a very dangerous place. We could end up in a war for sure, even …”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 34:45 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Sachs: China poses no security threat; nuclear war is sole threat
“I deeply believe that China is not a threat to the United States, and I deeply believe the only threat to the United States period in the world, given the oceans, given our size, and given the military, is nuclear war.”
Jeffrey Sachs Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 28:15 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 16, 2024
Prediction Held up
Mearsheimer: US will likely join if Israel enters war with Iran
“And if Israel gets involved in a war with Iran, we're going to come in, in all likelihood.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 51:56 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 17, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Ovitz: U.S. entertainment was historically second largest export behind aircraft
“At one time, entertainment was the second largest export of the United States, which no one realizes between movies, television, books, and records. Second largest export after aircraft.”
Michael Ovitz Sep 17, 2024 ▶ 30:46 Michael Ovitz | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 23, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Arora: Google European revenue briefly exceeded its US revenue
“And that's one of the few tech companies in the world whose European revenue was higher than the US revenue for a brief period of time.”
Nikesh Arora Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 5:34 Nikesh Arora | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 30, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
China's naval shipbuilding capacity outpaces the United States by 232x
“China, for example, can, Outbuild us by 232 times submarines that is, or new ships.”
Jake Loosararian Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 26:33 Jake Loosararian, Gecko Robotics | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: US debt jumped $204 billion in one day to $35.7 trillion
“On the first day of the new fiscal year, federal debt jumped by two hundred and four billion dollars in one day. Federal debt now stands at 35.7 trillion dollars, and the biggest challenge we have in the year ahead is that 10 trillion of the outstanding debt c…”
David Friedberg Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 1:09:09 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 8, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Ricks: Two-thirds of US calories are ultra-processed vs 35% in Europe
“In the U S we're now eating two thirds of our calories in our country are ultra processed. And that compares to like 35% in Europe.”
Dave Ricks Oct 8, 2024 ▶ 5:22 Dave Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly | The All-In Interview
Oct 9, 2024 bearish
Prediction Held up
Goldstein: Commercial eVTOL launches will begin internationally before the US
“I think it's, to me, super clear this does not start in the U.S. I really think it starts internationally.”
Adam Goldstein Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 13:48 Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Upcoming FAA rules will accelerate small personal aircraft development
“I think the good news here in the US is that the FAA is in the process of releasing something called Mosaic. Which for aircraft that are smaller than ours aircraft with, like, two passengers in them, more of a personal ownership type of thing, that's gonna all…”
JoeBen Bevirt Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 38:49 Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 10, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Uytdehaage: Adyen's China strategy focuses on merchants expanding to US
“We have a huge team in China selling basically to Chinese merchants that want to go here in the US.”
Ingo Uytdehaage Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 21:35 Ingo Uytdehaage, Adyen | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 10, 2024 positive
Disclosure
The US accounts for over one-third of Adyen's total revenue
“Already one third of our total revenues at the US.”
Ingo Uytdehaage Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 7:31 Ingo Uytdehaage, Adyen | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: 100-year storms will happen every two to three years
“And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're going to have what used to be called a one in 500 year storm, which is what Asheville is being termed at one in 500 year. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple years. And we're now looking at …”
David Friedberg Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 14:10 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oct 18, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Self-driving technology will save 30,000 US road deaths annually
“The guy's like gonna save 30,000 road deaths a year in the United States with self-driving”
Jason Calacanis Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 24:23 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Nov 1, 2024 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Nearly $10 trillion of US debt must roll over within a year
“Nearly 10 trillion dollars. I think of our debt has to be reissued in the next year.”
David Friedberg Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 22:07 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
Nov 1, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: BRICS nations have a higher aggregate GDP than the US
“You've got this BRICS organization out there now that has greater GDP in aggregate than the US.”
David Friedberg Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 23:28 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
Nov 23, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: The West lacks technology to intercept hypersonic missiles
“The West And the United States in particular does not, as far as we know, have a technology to intercept a hypersonic missile like that.”
David Sacks Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 50:52 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Nov 23, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US faces inescapable debt death spiral without federal spending fixes
“If it doesn't get fixed, as I've said countless times before, we are in an arithmetic debt, death spiral. There is no way out of it.”
David Friedberg Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 5:32 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Nov 23, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: MAGA primary candidates will challenge establishment Republicans nationwide
“I think those folks are going to have a very tough four and eight years because I think you'll see a bunch of MAGA candidates rising up to run against them everywhere in the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 42:31 DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory
Dec 7, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2034
Friedberg: China to reach 3-4x US electricity capacity in 10 years
“In 10 years, we're going to be looking across the water at, you know, a competitive country that has three X, four X, the electricity production capacity of our country.”
David Friedberg Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 15:20 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts massive funding deals for US hardware manufacturing in 2025
“I do think that there's going to be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute build out. I think we're going to see massive funding deals for hardware based manufacturing build out in the United States.”
David Friedberg Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 49:54 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts the US will announce a major nuclear power build-out
“My most anticipated trend is around the announcement of build-out of nuclear power in the United States in twenty-twenty-five.”
David Friedberg Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:32:59 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts a dramatic rise in US socialist movements in 2025
“I think that the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle, and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the American populace against socialism, and I actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise, a dramatic rise in…”
David Friedberg Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:05:32 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Cyan Bannister: The US is currently at war with China
“We are at war with China, whether we like to admit it or not, in my opinion, and so this is very strategic.”
Cyan Banister Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:38:12 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Partly held up
David Friedberg predicts a US-China grand deal within Trump's first six months
“This kind of also leads to what I think will be The grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration.”
David Friedberg Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:17:28 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 19, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Cruz: US labor force participation is among historical lows
“We also have among the lowest labor force participation we've ever had.”
Senator Ted Cruz Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 18:18 Ted Cruz: Trump's First Week, Texas vs. California, Immigration, DOGE, Greenland
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Swalwell: My district is 40% foreign-born and the eighth wealthiest in US
“40% of my constituents were born outside of the United States. We are the eighth wealthiest district in the country.”
Eric Swalwell Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:01:53 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Khanna: China announces $1T surplus and outproduces U.S. in drones and steel
“The same week China announces a one trillion dollar trade surplus. They're building more drones than us, more ships than us, more steel than us”
Ro Khanna Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:27:09 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Swalwell: U.S. is losing to China on rare earth processing and magnetizing
“We're getting our ass kicked by China on this on the you know, not just the mining, but the processing and the magnetizing, but we do have allies who have these resources.”
Eric Swalwell Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 56:13 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Khanna: U.S. can access Greenland's minerals without purchasing the territory
“They have critical minerals. They have a lot of important resources. And basically they want to partner economically with us. They're letting us invest. They're letting us develop it.”
Ro Khanna Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:42:08 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: China builds Gen 4 nuclear power at a tenth US cost
“Half the time, a 10th of the cost, and there's a regulatory path for Gen four reactors going up in China versus here.”
David Friedberg Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:15:47 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Immigrant agricultural workers are departing U.S. ahead of Trump transition
“We're seeing labor depart the country right now in anticipation of the administrative change, and a lot of labor is very scared of what's happening.”
David Friedberg Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 25:04 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025
Assertion Supported
Khanna: U.S. grants around 1.4 million green cards and visas annually
“We have a number on green cards and legal immigrants around 1.4 million a year.”
Ro Khanna Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 1:36:39 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: U.S. agricultural labor costs tripled over four to five years
“Agricultural labor costs have climbed by probably three X in the last four or five years.”
David Friedberg Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 21:16 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg predicts a grand U.S.-China deal within a couple months
“It's gonna be part of the, this is gonna be part of the big deal with China when they do this grand deal, and I think it's gonna take a couple months, but it's gonna be a grand deal.”
David Friedberg Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 2:23:09 All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC!
Jan 25, 2025 positive
Insight
Calacanis: US must build more nuclear power plants to win AI race
“There's only one way for us to win, and that's to build new, more nuclear power plants”
Jason Calacanis Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 1:49:51 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 25, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lafont: A 10x power advantage for China would neutralize US chip superiority
“But if China, if one day China had 10 XR power capacity, it won't even matter, right? Because they'll just have so many more, whether they're not quite the same advanced GPUs or not, they'll just have so many more of them. Their industrial AI capacity will be …”
Thomas Laffont Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 1:35:47 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 25, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: US pays up to three times more for electricity than China
“The US today is paying roughly, you know, call it one and a half to three X the price per kilowatt hour for electricity in the United States over what China's paying.”
David Friedberg Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 1:24:13 Trump's First Week: Inauguration Recap, Executive Actions, TikTok, Stargate + Sacks is Back!
Jan 28, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dalio predicts a 'hellacious' period of crisis within 10 years
“When you talk about 10 years, there's gonna be a period in that 10 year period where it's going to, it's gonna be hellacious. In that 10 year period where, you know, the coordination of dealing with our problems will be greater and the cooperation for dealing …”
Ray Dalio Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 1:05:08 Ray Dalio: US Debt Spiral, How to Avoid Disaster | The All-In Interview
Jan 28, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dalio: U.S. states and global systems face major political fragmentation
“I think we're going to see fragmentation of states from the central government. I think you're going to see big fragmentation in the world, not just in the United States, on the failure to agree on Most things.”
Ray Dalio Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 58:34 Ray Dalio: US Debt Spiral, How to Avoid Disaster | The All-In Interview
Jan 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Dalio: US is in an internal civil war and international war simultaneously
“We're at a civil war internally, and we're at an international war simultaneously.”
Ray Dalio Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 55:58 Ray Dalio: US Debt Spiral, How to Avoid Disaster | The All-In Interview
Jan 31, 2025 neutral
Opinion
David Sacks estimates China's AI model gap narrowed to 3-6 months
“If you had asked most people in the industry a few weeks ago, how far behind is China on AI models, they would say six to 12 months. And now I think they might say something more like three to six months, right?”
David Sacks Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 21:31 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Feb 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Total U.S. energy reserves are three times Saudi Arabia's
“If you look at the total energy reserves in the United States, they're three times greater than the total energy reserves of Saudi Arabia.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 57:32 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 7, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Biden set records for deficits, immigration, and wage suppression
“If you look at what happened under Biden, You had record high stock markets, so it was purely in favor of asset owners. Record high deficits, record high illegal immigration, record high wage suppression.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 48:06 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 15, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Naval: DeepSeek gave China the best open-source AI model
“They sent us back the best open source model when our guys were staying closed source for safety reasons.”
Naval Ravikant Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 1:07:35 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: China will win AI race if US imposes unnecessary regulation
“And so, if we hobble ourselves with unnecessary regulations, if we make it more difficult for our AI companies to compete, that doesn't mean that China's gonna follow suit and copy us. They're gonna take advantage of that fact, and they're gonna win.”
David Sacks Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 45:36 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2035
Calacanis: The US will lose millions of driver jobs by 2035
“If we lose millions of driver jobs, which we will in the next 10 years, just like we lost millions of cashier jobs, well, that's going to impact how our nation and many of the voters look at the border and immigration.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 42:24 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Naval: US energy imports stem from policy choices, not resource shortages
“And the United States is very lucky in that it's very autarkic. We have all the resources, we have all the supplies, we can be upstream of everybody with all the energy. To the extent we're importing any energy, that is a choice we made. That is not because fu…”
Naval Ravikant Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 1:20:07 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 positive
Insight
David Sachs: Stopping AI is impossible and US must maintain leadership over China
“Techno realist, which is technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop. If we don't do it, somebody else will. China's going to do it or somebody else will do it. And it's better for us to be in control of the technology, …”
David Sacks Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 1:06:01 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Naval: US would likely lose a war without domestic drone supply
“If we have a kinetic conflict right now, and we don't have good drone supply chain internally in the US, We're probably going to lose because those things are autonomous bullets. That's the future of all warfare.”
Naval Ravikant Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 1:19:33 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Patrick Collison: US labor productivity has risen 20% in 10 years
“Libra productivity in the US is up, like, 20% in the last 10 years, and so just like, again, you just look at the data, just the median person in the economy, or the average person, is is producing 20% on an inflation-adjusted basis, more than they were 10 yea…”
Patrick Collison Feb 22, 2025 ▶ 33:59 The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private
Mar 8, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: EU imposes 10% tariff on US cars versus 2.5% US tariff
“When we send cars to the EU, they get a 10% tariff, but when we get their cars, it's a two and a half percent tariff.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 23:26 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Lonsdale: Tariffs are pushing his portfolio companies to build in US
“A lot of my companies, thanks to the tariff stuff are looking to build stuff here. So I'm not a huge fan of tariffs personally, but they definitely make sense for things in defense. They definitely make sense for negotiating with countries, and it is true. It …”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 19:37 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Total government spending accounts for 30% of US GDP
“The government accounts for 30% of GDP in the United States.”
David Friedberg Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 24:38 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 15, 2025
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: The US operated without an income tax for 126 years
“So it's a 126 years from 1776 to 18 61. Then we paused it for a few years because of the civil war. We restarted again in 1872. And you notice when it stopped was right around world war one, where this entire war machine broke out and we've never looked back.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 23:42 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Howard Lutnick: The US had no federal income tax until 1913
“America was built on tariffs with no income tax. No income tax till 1913. None.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 53:01 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Chamath: ASML cannot manufacture lithography machines in US for 5-6 years
“ASML, who makes the extremely complicated Lithography machines, as an example, can't necessarily do that for another five or six years here.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:06:16 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: No country practices free trade and US is the least protective
“There is no country in this world that is free trade. Zero. And we are the lowest and the dumbest, because everybody else is higher and more protective.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:02:05 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: US national balance sheet is worth $500 trillion
“What's our balance sheet worth? I say 500 trillion dollars. The president says a quadrillion. But at 500 trillion or quadrillion, 36 trillion? We're rich.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 43:12 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Tariffs drove $2 trillion of committed domestic production to US
“Two trillion dollars of committed domestic production coming back because of his tariffs.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:05:32 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: India has a 50% average tariff while the US averages 4%
“India has a 50% tariff on average. 50. We have on average four.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 57:58 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: China's manufacturing edge comes from automation, not cheap labor
“China has actually much more of an advantage in automation. And so if you look at many Chinese factories that everyone assumes are cheap because they have cheap slave labor, which is kind of the Western general kind of media perception of what goes on over the…”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 1:21:00 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Mar 22, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Banister: US lost an 8-to-10-year advantage to China in education
“We have a gap of about eight to 10 years where we lost that advantage.”
Cyan Banister Mar 22, 2025 ▶ 1:23:48 White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Mar 29, 2025 negative
Opinion
Friedberg opposes detention without due process, citing US values
“I do not agree with sending people to prison or a detention center without due process. I felt similarly about Guantanamo Bay because I don't think it Matches the rights and the values that the United States should stand for.”
David Friedberg Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 1:14:36 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: China is expanding electrical grid capacity to eight terawatts
“We're going from one terawatt to two. China's going from three to eight over the same time period, just to be clear.”
David Friedberg Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:18:47 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Shapiro: Most US manufacturing job loss stems from technology, not offshoring
“The vast majority of job loss in the manufacturing sector is not due to offshoring. It's due to technological advancements.”
Ben Shapiro Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:12:07 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: 56% of US utility workers have under a decade experience
“So most of the people, 56% of all utility workers now have less than a decade of experience.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:40:44 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Gracias: US policy funneled $13B to $15B annually to human traffickers
“You've got to realize we gave 13 to fifteen billion dollars a year to human traffickers.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 26:32 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2040
Friedberg: China will add double US electric capacity in 15 years
“In the next 15 years, they're gonna add More electricity production capacity than the United States times two has today.”
David Friedberg Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:39:36 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gracias: Social Security will go bankrupt between 2032 and 2037
“Man, this system's going bankrupt. It's going to be bankrupt in 23 to seven. The country overall, as you guys know, talked about many times, is on its way toward bankruptcy.”
Antonio Gracias Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 4:45 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: The US graduates only 200 people per year with mining degrees
“He said, we only graduate 200 people a year in the United States with degrees in mining.”
David Friedberg Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:19:01 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 11, 2025 positive
Insight
Chamath: US must secure supply chains for AI, energy, materials, and pharma
“We need to measure and protect four critical areas. Everything else, I think we can deal with some inefficiency, some single points of failure, but the following four areas, Ezra, I would say are Sacrosanct. Number one is all of the technology, both the chips …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 36:07 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Nearly every country except China seeks new U.S. trade deals
“And now basically every country in the world, except for China, Is coming to Washington seeking to negotiate a new trade deal for the United States on better terms for the US.”
David Sacks Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 12:21 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Chamath: China's WTO accession was a massive labor arbitrage for global corporations
“People thought that China was going to be a honeypot of economic activity, and it turned out to be a sucking sound, a grand sucking sound of opportunity, where the globalist corporations saw a massive labor arbitrage. So it's fair to say that it was done with …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 28:37 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Summers: US markets are currently trading like an emerging market country
“We are trading like an emerging market country right now.”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 8:35 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Summers: U.S. exports to China grew substantially post-2000 PNTR
“Have you looked at the data on export flows from the United States to China? It actually did happen at a quite substantial rate.”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 30:41 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Summers: US made zero tariff reductions during China's 2000 WTO entry
“We had given them MFN status 15 years before. No one. They had MFN status. They had it for 15 years. There was not a single reduction in a barrier to Chinese trade. So the way in which you're describing it is just, bears no resemblance to what it was.”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 26:34 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 positive
Opinion
Summers: CHIPS Act is US's boldest move against foreign dependency
“That's the largest, boldest thing the United States has ever done to avoid dependence and in a national security area.”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 34:30 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 19, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: China surpassed the US in foundational research output around 2019
“What percentage Of all of the foundational research comes from the United States versus comes from China. And what's crazy about this chart is right around 2019, China passed the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 19, 2025 ▶ 46:35 Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Apr 19, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Palihapitiya: China matches US scientific research spending at $500B annually
“China from basically nothing in 2001. Is now neck and neck with the United States spending half a trillion dollars a year on core fundamental science research.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 19, 2025 ▶ 46:11 Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Apr 19, 2025 neutral
What-if
Palihapitiya: Including native Chinese publications shows China leading research a decade earlier
“If you added in the research that China actually publishes in Chinese, they would have run away with this a decade earlier.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 19, 2025 ▶ 46:56 Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Mearsheimer: China is the most serious threat to the United States
“China is a pure competitor to the United States. It's the most serious threat to the United States.”
John Mearsheimer Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 12:25 Inside the All-In Summit: Behind the Scenes of the World's Greatest Conference 🚀
Apr 26, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: China is US's only peer competitor, Russia distant third
“China is the peer competitor. It's the only country in the world that is a peer of the United States. It's the only country that's really capable of threatening our security. Russia is a distant number three in terms of the great power rankings.”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 36:43 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Apr 26, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts failure to cut US deficit will trigger a debt death spiral
“If we don't solve the deficit problem, there is no policy. There is nothing we're going to be able to do because the treasury rates Are gonna spike. There's gonna be no capital. There's gonna be no funding. We're gonna go through a debt, death spiral.”
David Friedberg Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 1:10:55 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Apr 26, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: China will remain top security threat for US and India through 21st century
“Again, their main security threat is China and our main security threat is China. And that's just not going to change for probably the entire 21st century.”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 33:34 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
May 3, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Petersen: Ocean freight bookings from China to US dropped 60%
“And what has happened is a 60% decline in bookings of ocean freight from China to the US.”
Ryan Petersen May 3, 2025 ▶ 29:27 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 3, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: China annihilated US rare earth processing capability over 25 years
“China over the last 25 years has been able to strategically annihilate our rare earth processing capability and our ability to cast rare earth magnets.”
David Sacks May 3, 2025 ▶ 59:20 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Foreign direct investment into the US under Trump exceeds $1T
“I think it's approaching, if not, it has already exceeded a trillion dollars from corporations and organizations and individuals from around the world who have committed to bringing money into the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 3, 2025 ▶ 13:14 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 4, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rollins: US will lose ability to feed itself if farm losses continue
“If we continue on that trajectory, America will not be able to feed ourself.”
Brooke Rollins May 4, 2025 ▶ 33:26 Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture | All-In DC
May 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Rollins: US lost tens of thousands of family farms over last decade
“We have already lost tens of thousands of family farms in the last decade.”
Brooke Rollins May 4, 2025 ▶ 33:20 Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture | All-In DC
May 6, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
US universities graduate only 200 mining students annually
“We only graduate 200 people in degrees in mining today.”
David Friedberg May 6, 2025 ▶ 42:35 Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior | All-In DC
May 6, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Tech industry historically used under 1% of US electricity
“Having spent 30 years in tech, we never used more than one percent of the nation's electrical production.”
Doug Burgum May 6, 2025 ▶ 20:52 Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior | All-In DC
May 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
North Dakota became the second-largest US oil producer
“We had climbed to being the number two oil producer in the country”
Doug Burgum May 6, 2025 ▶ 6:44 Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior | All-In DC
May 6, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US will have 100 million electrified robots
“We're going to have a hundred million robots in the United States that are all electrified.”
David Friedberg May 6, 2025 ▶ 23:05 Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior | All-In DC
May 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
US has achieved net energy independence
“We went from being like, oh, we're gonna run out of oil and gas to today we're energy, energy independent on a net basis, and we're on our path towards becoming energy dominant.”
Doug Burgum May 6, 2025 ▶ 1:42 Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior | All-In DC
May 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: The US is now the world's largest exporter of methane
“The US is now the largest exporter of methane.”
David Friedberg May 17, 2025 ▶ 1:07:06 Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
May 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Palihapitiya: Groq is the only AI inference firm with a Saudi export license
“We are the only inference company in the world with an export license from the United States to do this.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 17, 2025 ▶ 14:55 Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
May 17, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Shapiro: All net U.S. taxes are paid by the top income quintile
“All net taxes in this country are paid by the top quintile, all of them, because below the top quintile, you're getting as much back from the government or more than you are paying into the system.”
Ben Shapiro May 17, 2025 ▶ 57:06 Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
May 17, 2025
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: China now matches the U.S. in active clinical trial volume
“And there are as many clinical trials now in China as there are in the United States, and oftentimes they're bigger, which is to say that the amount of innovation and the surface area there is already exceeding what's happening in the West.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 17, 2025 ▶ 1:27:32 Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
May 17, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shapiro: US faces wild currency inflation or massive austerity in 5-10 years
“The answer is we're going to either wildly inflate our currency or we're going to go into massive austerity measures. You know, five to 10 years from now. There's not going to be a third choice.”
Ben Shapiro May 17, 2025 ▶ 57:20 Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
May 24, 2025 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2035
Chamath: New nuclear energy deployment will take until 2035
“Nuclear? I can't. Because that'll take till 2035.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 1:29:58 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 bullish
Insight
Friedberg: Energy scaling is this generation's Manhattan and Apollo project
“This generation's Manhattan and Apollo project is energy production scaling in the United States.”
David Friedberg May 24, 2025 ▶ 1:30:18 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: China R&D output is roughly equivalent to the US
“The amount of R&D that the Chinese are doing is roughly equivalent to the amount of R&D that the United States is doing.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 1:22:44 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2040
Friedberg: US power grid will reach 2 terawatts over 15 years versus China's 8
“Meanwhile, right now, China is making three terawatts, and they're scaling up to make eight. We are at one going to two over the next 15 years.”
David Friedberg May 24, 2025 ▶ 1:27:54 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 24, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: China adds full US power grid capacity every 18 months
“So every 18 months, China adds all of the power production capacity of the entire United States additional to their grid.”
David Friedberg May 24, 2025 ▶ 1:26:41 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 25, 2025
Insight
Sen. Ron Johnson: U.S. risks severe inflation from deficit spending, not bankruptcy
“I'm not concerned about America going bankrupt because we have this vast wealth. I'm concerned about us being insolvent in sparking massive inflation and just wiping out people's savings, making it very impossible for them to live and retire.”
Senator Ron Johnson May 25, 2025 ▶ 38:23 Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
May 25, 2025
Insight
Sen. Johnson: Debt-to-assets ratio is more relevant than debt-to-GDP
“Our debt to GDP ratio is probably not the most relevant, is relevant for inflation, that type of thing, but, you know, debt to total assets is probably the more relevant.”
Senator Ron Johnson May 25, 2025 ▶ 37:44 Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview
May 29, 2025 negative
Opinion
Nico Rosberg: Europe suffers from cumbersome regulation, fragmentation, and poor politics
“We have the problems with regulatory frameworks being way too cumbersome. We have the geographic fragmentation in Europe, which is very different to the US. Politically, it's really, I mean, quite in a bad place at the moment.”
Nico Rosberg May 29, 2025 ▶ 20:33 Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
May 31, 2025
Opinion
Sacks: Winning the AI race means US retaining 80-90% market share
“I would define winning as the whole world consolidates around the American tech stack. They use American hardware in data centers that, again, are fundamentally powered by American technology. And, you know, just look at market share, okay? If we have, like, 8…”
David Sacks May 31, 2025 ▶ 50:36 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Restricting US AI innovation will lead to losing AI race to China
“If you hobble our own innovation, our own AI efforts in the name of stomping out every possibility of X risk, then you probably end up losing the AI race to China because they're not going to abide by those same regulations.”
David Sacks May 31, 2025 ▶ 17:06 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Jun 4, 2025 positive
What-if
Isaacman: Without SpaceX, the US would already be behind China in space launch
“Thank goodness for SpaceX, or we definitely be already behind in that regard.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 48:09 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
Jun 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Isaacman: US spent over $100B over 35 years planning Moon return
“For 35 years, we said, we're going back and we spent over a hundred billion of taxpayer dollars saying we were going to do it.”
Jared Isaacman Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 39:56 Jared Isaacman: What went wrong at NASA | The All-In Interview
Jun 13, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Carlson: Nearly 50 million undocumented immigrants live in the US
“The real number is not twenty million, it's closer to fifty million, I think that's true illegals in the United States.”
Tucker Carlson Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 21:00 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 13, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: 7.5 million legal immigrants are waiting for status adjustment in US
“There are seven and a half Legal, not illegal, legal immigrants in the United States waiting for their adjustment of status.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 9:56 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 13, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson: US has no plan for debt and faces economic oblivion
“I don't know a single person who's got a, any kind of plan to fix it. I think we're just gonna ride it into whatever the point of oblivion is.”
Tucker Carlson Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 49:50 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 13, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tucker Carlson: Unrestricted interstate travel in US could end soon
“And I think the longer this continues, the greater the threat of disunion, the greater the threat of reaching a point where you, I don't know, you can't drive from New York to LA. We take a lot for granted in the country, and the main thing we take for granted…”
Tucker Carlson Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 7:29 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jun 21, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: United States has around 50 million crypto wallet holders
“You've got something like fifty million wallet holders in the U.S. And their voters.”
David Sacks Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 1:42:24 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Tether has three years under GENIUS Act to relocate to U.S.
“Tether will under this act will have three years to come on shore. But the bottom line is they will have to operate in the United States.”
David Sacks Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 1:44:22 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI economic surplus will likely accrue in the US first
“I mean, if you think about where AI is going to accrue economic surplus first, it's likely going to be in the US, not global GDP.”
David Friedberg Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 7:06 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 28, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US will lose AI race to China without fair use
“And if we don't allow our AI models to again, have a sensible fair use definition that allows them to train, but not violate an output, then we will lose to Chinese AI models.”
David Sacks Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 1:38:37 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump almost single-handedly restored US status as global superpower
“So from my perspective, I think what president Trump has done is almost single-handedly bring back the United States as the Global superpower.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 14:26 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Most cutting-edge science is coming from China, not the US
“As is the case with most cutting-edge science nowadays, it is coming out of China and not out of the United States.”
David Friedberg Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 1:06:09 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Mearsheimer: Netanyahu is trying to draw the US into war with Iran
“To counter the Iranian escalation scenario, the fact is Iran does not want a war with the United States, and the United States does not want a war with Iran. And it's the Israelis, especially Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been trying to sort of suck us into a wa…”
John Mearsheimer Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 21:35 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: US uniquely possesses bombs to strike Iran's underground nuclear sites
“These bombs weigh 15 tons each. They'll go deep underground. Israel doesn't have them, and that's the reason we're given of why we were pulled into this is because we're the only people in the world who could have taken these out.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 7:59 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 28, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg states US student loan debt rose from $500B to $2T
“In the last 20 years, the student loan debt has ballooned from five hundred billion to two trillion.”
David Friedberg Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 42:54 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jun 30, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Kamala Harris will soon look like a conservative candidate
“I think we'll look back and I jokingly say that Kamala Harris is going to look like a conservative candidate pretty soon.”
David Friedberg Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 2:08 David Friedberg Reacts to Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Mayoral Run
Jun 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: US student loan debt grew from $500B to $2T in 20 years
“In the last 20 years, the student loan debt has ballooned from five hundred billion to two trillion.”
David Friedberg Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 2:49 David Friedberg Reacts to Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Mayoral Run
Jul 4, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: China adds US-equivalent power capacity every 18 months
“China's adding an entire United States in electricity production capacity every 18 months right now.”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 16:43 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Any decline in US economic supremacy will take 50-100 years
“I think the boundary condition is if something were to happen with the quality of the human capital inside of the United States and its inability to innovate. Then we're probably in trouble, but even that story will take 50 to a hundred years to play out.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 51:41 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: US electricity production will be a winning trade over 20 years
“Any single way you can get your hands on electricity production Is a winning trade over the next 20 years in the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 22:13 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: The US will inflate or print away its national debt
“What's going to happen is we're going to end up inflating away or printing away all of the debt that we've taken on”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 37:32 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Over 70 state AI laws have passed in the US
“To date, there have been, I believe, 70 state laws or statutes passed thus far in the United States, with I think over a thousand having been proposed to date, if the numbers are right.”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 5:45 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: U.S. annual interest expense on debt is $1.2 trillion
“At 3.3%, which is the current average rate we're paying across 36 trillion dollars, we're, we have a run rate interest expense, so just the money we're paying each year on the interest of the outstanding debt is 1.2 trillion dollars a year.”
David Friedberg Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 10:10 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Baker: US is at a disadvantage to China in electrical generation
“If we do not significantly increase kind of domestic energy production and electricity generation, You know, we are already at a disadvantage to China, and I do think we want to close that kind of electrical generation gap as quickly as we can.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 56:01 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: U.S. total debt is $36 trillion at 3.3% average interest
“We have 36 trillion dollars of debt. The average interest rate we're paying on that debt today is 3.3%.”
David Friedberg Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 9:48 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 23, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Power: The United States produced only five ships in 2024
“We produced a grand total of five ships last year.”
Chris Power Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 21:02 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: China has 3M factories compared to 250k in US
“China has roughly three million factories. US has 250,000.”
David Friedberg Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 27:50 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sankar: China on pace to 3x US energy generation by 2030
“China is on pace by 2030 to three x the amount of generation against the US.”
Shyam Sankar Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 38:23 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Vance: US labor productivity is flatlining, challenging AI job-loss fears
“If the robots were coming to take all of our jobs, you would see labor productivity skyrocketing in this country, but you actually see labor productivity flatlining.”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 17:50 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
JD Vance: The US has more bank tellers today than in the 1970s
“What actually happened is we have more bank tellers now than we did in the 19 seventies. They do slightly different jobs, and they're more productive, and they earn higher wages”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 18:26 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
JD Vance: US employment rate for college-educated STEM graduates is declining
“The college-educated employment rate for STEM graduates in this country seems to be declining.”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 18:53 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025
Disclosure
Vance: Trump administration will not offer legal amnesty to undocumented immigrants
“What the president has said is, number one, we're not going to do amnesty in this country.”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 5:07 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Vance: China is the only foreign tech industry competing with US AI
“When you look at their technology industry, I think that's the only tech industry, especially when it comes to things like AI, where they're even sort of knocking on the door of America.”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 10:09 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Vance: Foreign leader proposed non-European NATO alternative using US tech stack
“A foreign leader came to me relatively recently, this is actually last week small country, but very important country strategically, very good ally of the United States, and basically pitched me On creating a NATO alternative outside of Europe, but where count…”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 13:11 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vance predicts US will see net negative immigration in 2025
“I think in 2025, we will have the first net negative immigration number in about 50 or 60 years in the United States”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 2:46 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Lochmiller: Crusoe and Redwood built the largest US EV battery microgrid
“We did a partnership with Redwood Materials where we built the largest we built the largest microgrid with in the United States with 60, 60 megawatt hours of batteries, end-of-life EV batteries, and 20 megawatts of solar to power an AI factory.”
Chase Lochmiller Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 38:15 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US graduates only 200 mining engineers annually compared to China
“We only graduate 200 people a year in the United States in mining, which is orders of magnitude different than China.”
David Sacks Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 7:38 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Wright: All US batteries combined store five minutes of grid power
“If you take all the batteries in the United States, you could store five minutes of power.”
Chris Wright Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 21:59 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Japan committed $550 billion to finance U.S. infrastructure
“So they've committed five hundred and fifty billion dollars to finance Projects in America that are important to the president and to American infrastructure.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 36:16 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bessent: TSMC's Arizona fab system could supply 7% of US chips
“TSMC wants to build a gigantic fab system in Arizona, and I think it might be able to, Produce up to seven percent of the chips that the United States needs, and they're dealing with local building inspectors.”
Scott Bessent Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 16:25 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Jul 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump: The U.S. leads China substantially in AI
“Right now we're leading China very substantially in AI, very, very substantially,”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 20:50 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Jul 24, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Trump claims US will impose 15% to 50% standard tariffs globally
“So we'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15 and 50 Percent.”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 3:31 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Jul 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Trump claims US will match China's electric generation capacity additions
“Under the Trump administration, we will be saying those very famous campaign words, drill, baby, drill, and build, baby, build, and we will be adding at least as much electric capacity as China.”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 37:26 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: China Holds Drone Manufacturing and Materials Advantage Over US
“China has both manufacturing productivity materials advantage over the United States on that front.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 33:05 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: China will try to beat the US using commercial capitalism
“They're going to try to beat us on capitalism and then use brands like we've used brands like Apple and Google to defeat us.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 30:40 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
What-if
Friedberg: Solar subsidies starved U.S. investment in Gen-IV nuclear systems
“And therefore, the R&D investment dollars that were supposed to go into nuclear that would have allowed us to accelerate to Gen-IV systems, which, by the way, China has now done, went away.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 46:42 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Phil Deutsch: US electricity demand growth has risen to two to three percent
“In the United States, now it's two to three percent, and a data center needs continuous power in specific locations, and it's relatively price insensitive.”
Phil Deutsch Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 23:39 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Ben Shapiro: U.S. geographic mobility has wildly decreased over time
“One of my favorite charts with regard to the American populace is geographic mobility over time. How much people move. Because what you actually see is that that has wildly decreased in the United States.”
Ben Shapiro Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:07:31 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Deutsch: Solar and wind account for around 80% of new U.S. energy additions
“So the US, our additions are like 80% solar and wind, but the installed base, it's, you know, under 20.”
Phil Deutsch Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 26:00 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025
Opinion
Shapiro: The US-China AI race is existential for America
“Well, as you might imagine, I'm definitely in the existential race category.”
Ben Shapiro Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 28:00 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US Is Decades Behind China in Nuclear Energy Development
“And so now we are several decades behind where China is with respect to nuclear, which is ultimately the most scalable energy production system we have.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 46:53 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 28, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Ukraine's $100B 2023 counteroffensive was an abysmal failure
“The real cause of this is the failure of the counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Remember, we gave the Ukrainians something like a hundred billion dollars worth of weapons to retake that territory. And it was an abysmal failure.”
David Sacks Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 3:10 The Brutal Truth About Ending The Ukraine War - David Sacks
Aug 29, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Foreign capital commitments from US tariff deals exceed $1 trillion
“If you add that all up, we've exceeded a trillion dollars of inbound capital on the investment side.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 52:35 Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
Sep 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paul: Trump-style protectionism will make America poorer and risks economic calamity
“I think there will be many heirs and many people competing to be heirs of Donald Trump in the protectionist front. I don't think it's good for our country, and I think it will make us less wealthy, and ultimately could really lead to a calamity.”
Rand Paul Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 1:06:07 Senator Rand Paul: Tariffs, Debt, China, and a Warning for America
Sep 7, 2025 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya predicts US will book $500 billion in incremental tariff revenue
“I think that the United States is going to book Probably close to half a trillion of incremental revenue.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 33:50 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 8, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: America's largest utility will eventually be a distributed residential network
“My belief is that the largest utility in the United States will be a distributed utility of homeowners.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 20:18 The Hidden Truth About the US Energy Grid: Subsidies, Demand & Rising Prices - Chris Wright
Sep 9, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Economic populism will be the next major US political chapter
“I think this is a marker for what we're going to see a whole lot more of, which is economic populism. That's the actual next chapter. That's gonna scare the out of everyone in this room.”
Tucker Carlson Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 23:02 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 9, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson warns the US is moving toward generational ethnic conflict
“The one thing you have to worry about in a multi-ethnic society is ethnic conflict, because it's enduring, it doesn't go away. It's generational, and we're moving toward that.”
Tucker Carlson Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 51:19 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Trump told him 50 million uncounted people live in US
“Trump told me directly he thought it was fifty million.”
Tucker Carlson Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 27:41 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 9, 2025 positive
Opinion
Friedman: Fed independence is crucial for enabling long-term economic decision-making
“I do think that the Fed, we've benefited for almost 250 years on having Fed independence. I think that it's important to have, allow the Fed to think long term.”
Adena Friedman Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 23:44 Nasdaq CEO Reveals the Next Era Of The Stock Market - Adena Friedman | All-In Summit
Sep 18, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Yakovenko: Solana spent $2M of $14M raised on US legal fees
“We raised a seed in A-Round. It was about fourteen million bucks, which is amazing. It was, you know, like, outright crazy success for a new, a first-time founder. I had to spend two million of that on lawyer fees. Which is a more than 10% of my runway to figu…”
Anatoly Yakovenko Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 13:48 Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko on Crypto's Next Era: Quantum, AI, and the Future of Money
Sep 29, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Ricks: The US is the least metabolically healthy large country
“I think we are the least healthy metabolic big country, and probably the reason for that is the food we feed ourselves.”
Dave Ricks Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 20:36 Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing
Sep 29, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Ricks: Poor US insurance coverage drives patients to gray market GLP-1s
“We're not used to it in the United States. Because we, one, have a, for most people, a pretty good system to subsidize some of the benefit via the insurance markets, so there's not a lot of incentive to go outside the system. That's different for these drugs, …”
Dave Ricks Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 5:43 Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing
Sep 30, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Cliffton: 5.5 billion instant deliveries take place annually in the US
“There are now five and a half billion instant deliveries being done every year just in the US. And that's not like Amazon or UPS. That's just the instant deliveries.”
Keller Rinaudo Clifton Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 58:08 Science Corner Special! David Friedberg, Cleo Abram, Alex Filippenko, and Keller Rinaudo Cliffton
Sep 30, 2025 negative
Opinion
Haas: US has lost muscle memory for 24/7 semiconductor manufacturing
“TSMC is a twenty-four-seven operation where if a line goes down or a customer's got a problem, not only are the technicians need to be ready to go, the engineers need to be ready to go, and that is something that, ah, I think we've lost the muscle memory insid…”
Rene Haas Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 17:17 Arm CEO Rene Haas on AI: Nvidia Lessons, Intel’s Decline and the US-China Chip War
Sep 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Haas: Restricting chip access will force foreign nations to build parallel ecosystems
“If you shut off supply of a computing architecture into other parts of the world, what will happen? Certain parts of the world that have the capabilities, either in terms of people, technology innovation, they will find a way and they will find a way around, a…”
Rene Haas Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 20:57 Arm CEO Rene Haas on AI: Nvidia Lessons, Intel’s Decline and the US-China Chip War
Sep 30, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Trade deals will bring nearly $2T in capital to US
“Look, between the Korea trade deal, the Japanese trade deal, the European trade deal, you know, we have close to now two trillion of investment capital that these countries will make into the United States.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 14:37 Arm CEO Rene Haas on AI: Nvidia Lessons, Intel’s Decline and the US-China Chip War
Oct 3, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Open-source models are the only AI sector where US lags China
“But so far, this is maybe the one area in AI where the US is behind China is this sort of open source models. I'd say every other part of the stack, closed models, chip design, chip manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, every other part of the …”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 50:38 Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
Oct 8, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US-China rivalry stems from US intolerance of peer competitors
“The U S and China are in a high tech competition. They're in a security competition, economic competition. And the reason is because China's become rich and powerful and the United States does not tolerate peer competitors.”
David Sacks Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 14:54 Alibaba's Joe Tsai on US-China Rivalry, AI Future, Owning the Nets/Liberty, Caitlin Clark's Impact
Oct 10, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: One-third of US deportations will be self-deportations
“I think we'll see that in the statistics, that of the three or 400,000 people we wind up deporting, Probably a third of them are going to be people who self-deported”
Jason Calacanis Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 39:36 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 16, 2025
Insight
Sorkin: Post-WWII US union success depended on global industrial monopoly
“The reason why unions even worked, I would argue, for, in large part, was because there was this period of time where we were the only players in town, so we could charge monopoly rents for a lot of things, and people could buy a house with a white fence and h…”
Andrew Ross Sorkin Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 39:03 1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
Oct 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Lack of federal AI rules will cause U.S. to lose to China
“Otherwise, locally in the United States, the only winners are going to be lawyers, and then we're going to create an own goal and China's going to win.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 56:08 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Oct 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: CCP subsidies in the 1990s left US dependent on Chinese rare earths
“In the nineties, supported by the CCP, ultimately eradicated competition. And made it non-competitive for U.S. Companies. So they exited the market, and now the United States finds itself completely dependent on Chinese suppliers.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 22:34 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Oct 18, 2025 positive
Insight
Friedberg: Tax incentives and deregulation surpass price floors for US rare earth production
“So I would argue we should be focusing not so much on setting price floors to create an incentive for folks in the US to get involved in the industry, but rather to deregulate and to provide perhaps tax incentives and other economic incentives.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 24:13 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Oct 18, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US rare earth processing technology hasn't advanced in 40 years
“The technology hasn't been deeply developed in 40 years. It's still kind of forty-year-old chemical engineering technology, and we stopped developing it about 40 years ago in the United States.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 34:20 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Oct 21, 2025
Insight
Sramek: US manufacturing can only compete with China using robotics and AI
“We cannot compete with China and on-shore manufacturing By throwing bodies at the problem. We simply don't have enough people in America to do that. The only way that we can compete is by building factories of the future where we use robotics and AI to dramati…”
Jan Sramek Oct 21, 2025 ▶ 5:09 California Forever: The Startup Building America's Next Great City
Oct 21, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Sramek: China's Zhongjing Island shipyard outproduced post-WWII US total last year
“Zhongjing Island shipyard in China built more ships last year than we have built collectively in the United States since the end of the Second World War.”
Jan Sramek Oct 21, 2025 ▶ 6:22 California Forever: The Startup Building America's Next Great City
Oct 24, 2025
Assertion Supported
Calacanis notes Republican affiliation among journalists dropped to 3.4% since 1970s
“Back in the day, it was 35% Democrat, 25% Republican in the seventies. And you just see that red sliver there go down to 3.4%.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 1:13:24 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
Oct 30, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Buttigieg: No historical republic survived current US inequality levels
“One of the biggest problems we have as a society is this level of inequality we've hit. That like, historically, there's no evidence that any republic can reach this level of equality to hold onto it and continue to be a republic.”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 38:12 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
Oct 30, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Buttigieg: U.S. productivity and GDP growth were higher under higher tax rates
“Well, look at the seventies and eighties, right? Sixties, seventies, eighties, look at GDP growth, productivity growth, and tax rates. I mean, I'm sure you're aware that those growth rates were higher, and the tax rates were higher too.”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 30:40 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
Oct 31, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Musk: China's solar capacity is 1.5 terawatts annually versus 0.5 terawatts US power usage
“China's China's solar panel production max capacity is one and a half terawatts per year. US steady state power usage is half a terawatt.”
Elon Musk Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 1:17:57 Elon Musk: OpenAI Betrayal, His Future at Tesla, and the Next Big Thing — Grokipedia
Nov 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tareq Amin: Saudi Arabia will become the third-largest AI infrastructure hub
“Outside of the United States, outside of China, I really think Saudi Arabia has a good shot to be the third largest country in infrastructure.”
Tareq Amin Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 14:19 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Nov 4, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Tareq Amin: Humain will soon establish ventures in the United States
“Between our data center segment, our models team, applications and also our ventures that we will soon have in the United States is a you know, is a very well-funded company that I'm feeling really comfortable about the opportunities that we could capture betw…”
Tareq Amin Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 6:32 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Nov 4, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Restricting US tech access forces foreign allies onto China's AI stack
“If we deny the rest of the world the ability To participate in the American tech stack, then they will participate in the Chinese tech stack”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 26:47 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts a dramatic rise in U.S. socialist movements in 2025
“And I actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise, a dramatic rise in socialist movements in twenty-twenty-five in the United States.”
David Friedberg Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 1:07:09 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 7, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: U.S. AI slowdown will trigger security risks within five years
“If we do an own goal here and slow down because we think somehow that this is the path to greater economic growth, it's going to be a real problem, both national security as well as economic security. Three, five years down the line.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 27:59 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Tucker Carlson: A regime change war in Iran would not benefit the US
“The prospect of a regime change war in Iran, and I just thought, man, there is no way that helps us in any way”
Tucker Carlson Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:30:52 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Tucker Carlson: What has happened in Gaza does not help the US at all
“I do think what's happened in Gaza does not help the United States at all.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:30:30 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tucker Carlson predicts identity politics in America will end in violence
“And in its absence, then we get a lot of people popping up and being like, well, all white people over here, and all black people, or Jewish people, or whatever. That's not gonna work. That will end in violence. Everyone knows that.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 29:45 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Politicians use AI fears to breed voter compliance and control
“AI is the new lightning rod. For fear and for divisiveness that ultimately breeds compliance and control, which is where these politicians are trying to drive the populace and the voting conditions in the United States.”
David Friedberg Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 8:19 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 19, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Stopping U.S. AI development will end American global preeminence
“If the U S stops developing AI, if we hand this leadership to other countries, it'll make the United States poor. It'll make the American people poor, and it will seed our leadership. Globally, we will not be the preeminent power in the world anymore.”
David Sacks Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 5:58 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 22, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Bessent reveals U.S. government is taking equity stakes in strategic industries
“If you look at the industries where we are taking stakes and moving forward, we've identified five to eight strategic industries where the U S we have to have endogenous production, or at least adjacent to us in North America or this hemisphere.”
Scott Bessent Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 48:09 Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lutnick: Average green card recipient earned in the $40,000s versus $60,000s for average Americans
“So the average green card, if you looked for the last five years, the average American makes in the sixties, a thousand dollars a year, and the average green card recipient made in the forties.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 55:54 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: US operating steel blast furnaces declined from 40 to 10
“So we start with 40 steel blast furnaces. Now we have 10.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 24:18 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Lutnick: US tariff revenues will grow from $500B to $1T per year
“And then you have the tariffs are five hundred billion a year now, and they will grow over time to a trillion a year”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 34:38 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Japan committed $550B to finance US infrastructure projects
“So what we came up with was Five hundred and fifty billion dollars. That this is not foreign direct investment. This is not Toyota building a factory in America. This is, they literally will finance Any project we want to build in America, as long as it's like…”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 31:43 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Lutnick: TSMC agreed to increase US investment from $60B to $160B
“So instead of building sixty billion, you build a hundred and sixty billion. And we agreed.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:14:24 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 10, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US-China standoff and Taiwan issues will be largely resolved under Trump
“I think the standoff with China is going to be largely resolved. And I think president Trump's, when he makes his visit there, I don't know if you're going to go on that one. Sax, but I think it should be included in it, obviously because of the AI race. I do …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 1:02:35 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 14, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Sternfels: Korea leads world in robots per worker, US is distant third
“Korea leads the way in robots per, per worker, right? They're at about one to 10 right now. Germany and China are tied at second. And the US then is a distant third.”
Bob Sternfels Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 38:06 Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026
Jan 15, 2026 positive
Prediction Partly held up
Makary predicts GLP-1 drug starter pricing will drop to $149
“With the GLP-I example, for example, it's gonna come down to a 149 dollars for the first three months.”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 1:00:41 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 15, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Makary: 40% of eligible US women do not get mammograms
“40% of women who are candidates for a mammogram are not getting a mammogram in the United States today”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 54:09 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 15, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Makary: 60% of US antibiotic prescriptions are unnecessary
“60% of antibiotics prescribed in the United States Are unnecessary.”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 1:07:20 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 15, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Makary: U.S. childhood vaccine schedule was an international outlier at 72 doses
“The United States vaccine schedule was an international outlier with 72 doses recommended between the ages of zero and 18.”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 52:20 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 15, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Makary calls out Froot Loops for using petroleum dyes in U.S.
“Fruit Loops was making cereal for Canada, where the petroleum-based dyes were banned, and a different Fruit Loops for the United States for American kids.”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 1:17:35 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 17, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: US electricity spend totals $750B annually on 4T kWh consumed
“We consume in this country about four trillion kilowatt hours of electricity. Average price is 18 cents a kilowatt hour. So it's about, call it, seven hundred fifty billion dollars of spend on electricity every year. One third of that, two hundred fifty billio…”
David Friedberg Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 24:47 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Denmark will not sell Greenland due to national pride
“My understanding, my experience is that they do not want to deal. They're not interested. There's a whole bunch of national pride associated with that. You can't break national pride.”
David Friedberg Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 59:52 Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
Jan 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Rogers: Existing defamation laws cover false AI deepfakes of public figures
“When it comes to deepfakes, I think we have, in, in America and in Europe, strong legal remedies against defamation. So if someone creates an image of a public figure that is false, and people are believing that image, and a reasonable viewer would believe tha…”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 25:46 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Rogers: UK regulator Ofcom fines US websites that don't operate there
“Under the Online Safety Act, we now have active litigation by the relevant regulator Ofcom against several American websites. These are websites that don't reach into the UK. They're not, they're, these aren't websites dedicated to discussing the Queen. They'r…”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 4:48 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Jan 22, 2026 positive
Opinion
Rogers: U.S. culture and tech platforms are shifting away from censorship
“But I think in the United States, we've shifted back toward a less censorious approach, and so have these platforms.”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 3:56 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Jan 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Trump declared US must win AI race in July 2025 speech
“President Trump gave a major AI policy speeches in July, and he declared that the United States had to win the AI race.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 0:25 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kratsios: AI could help double US research and development output by 2036
“So that's kind of the dream that I have, that ultimately we as a country can almost double our R and D output over the next 10 years because of AI.”
Michael Kratsios Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 17:16 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Stanford poll shows 83% AI optimism in China, 39% in US
“In China, AI optimism was 83%. So 83% of the population feels that it's going to be more beneficial than harmful. That number of the United States is only 39%.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 25:09 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: China's power grid doubled in 10 years; US grew roughly 2%
“If you look at their grid has roughly doubled in the last 10 years, whereas ours has only grown by about two to three percent.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 23:38 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US leads China by 6 months in models, 2 in chips
“I think on models, most people would say that we're, our models are maybe six months ahead or so, plus or minus the Chinese models. You look at chips. Maybe two years ahead. You go to the semiconductor manufacturing equipment, it could be like five years.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 23:09 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kratsios: Few nations have capital or aspiration to develop frontier AI models
“Outside of the US, China, and maybe a few other countries, most countries around the world do not have the capital or the aspiration to do large scale training runs or development of their own frontier models.”
Michael Kratsios Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 33:15 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Halting data center expansion would cripple US in global AI race
“It would fundamentally, I think, cripple the United States in the AI race if we just stopped building data centers altogether.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 8:24 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Jason Calacanis: US GDP growth reached 5.6%, highest since COVID stimulus
“We have not seen this level of GDP since we pumped a bunch of money and printed a bunch of dollars during COVID. 5.6 GDP is pretty spectacular.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 31:06 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 24, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Dr. Oz: US spends 0.8% of GDP on pharmaceutical products
“We pay, in the United States.8% of our GDP towards pharmaceutical products.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 7:13 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dr. Oz: European cancer survival lags U.S. due to drug delays
“If you get cancer, more advanced cancers in Europe, your survival rate's way below the US. And if you don't get access to the drugs, which they don't for several years on average that we get in the US, yes, you can get it for cheaper, but your people are payin…”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 8:21 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Dr. Oz: U.S. needs two to three times more general practitioners to match Europe
“There are not enough GPs in America. We probably need two to three times more just to keep up with Europe.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 14:55 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 24, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dr. Oz: UK agrees to US drug pricing terms
“We've just gotten the British to say yes, and other countries are talking to us about the fact that they pay .3%.”
Dr. Mehmet Oz Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 8:10 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 25, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis states half of Americans do not own equities
“Half the country doesn't own equities.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 25, 2026 ▶ 52:02 The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
Jan 31, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks thinks European nations will make large concessions to retain US defense
“So they do not want us leaving. And I think they're willing to make large concessions to the US to ensure that we stay there, even though they'll probably grumble about it.”
David Sacks Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 7:37 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Jan 31, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Wealth redistribution may be inevitable to avoid US civil war
“I wonder if it may be an inevitability in order to keep the United States from going into civil war. I mean that very wholeheartedly. Like, I just don't know if there's a way of solving this fiscal problem without a functional redistribution of wealth.”
David Friedberg Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:17:31 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Feb 10, 2026 bullish
Opinion
CZ: U.S. needs Binance access to become global crypto capital
“If U.S. Wants to become the capital of crypto in the world, you cannot have not, you cannot not have the largest player. You cannot not, you cannot have U.S. People not be able to access the largest liquidity pool. In crypto.”
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 1:39:05 Binance CEO: 4 Months in Prison, $4 Billion Fine, and What Comes Next
Feb 10, 2026 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Canadian higher education avoids insurmountable debt unlike US
“Canada is incredible because you can get this education and it doesn't saddle you with this debt that you can't overcome, which is not true in the United States for many people.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 8:34 Binance CEO: 4 Months in Prison, $4 Billion Fine, and What Comes Next
Feb 10, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
CZ: Binance is severely limited in the U.S. without a pardon
“Without a pardon, Binance, Binance is severely limited to do stuff in the US.”
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 1:39:01 Binance CEO: 4 Months in Prison, $4 Billion Fine, and What Comes Next
Feb 10, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
CZ: Boarded a flight out of the US within 26 minutes of prison release
“When I left prison, it took me about six, 26 minutes from leaving the prison door to getting on the airplane and flying out.”
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 1:33:39 Binance CEO: 4 Months in Prison, $4 Billion Fine, and What Comes Next
Feb 13, 2026
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Construction and hospitality employ 2.5M undocumented workers in US
“The top two areas where illegal aliens are working in the United States. Most people don't know this construction number one, and the second one is leisure and hospitality. So you got two and a half million people working in those two categories”
Jason Calacanis Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 57:06 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
Feb 28, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Restricting US data center expansion will shift economic value overseas
“If we don't put them here, someone else will put them on their shores, someone else will put them in their country, someone else will put them in their jurisdiction, and a lot of the economic value that arises from the people that will build those facilities, …”
David Friedberg Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 44:15 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Mar 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ray Dalio asserts Chinese AI technology is nearly equal to US tech
“Their technologies are almost as good as ours, because they are, they're not far behind”
Ray Dalio Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 45:09 Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"
Mar 6, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: No scenario for protracted U.S. ground war in Iran
“In terms of boots on the ground, there's no scenario where we have some protracted boots on the ground, Afghanistan, Iraq too, like scenario.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 5:31 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6, 2026 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Trump is not captured by Israel and acts in US interest
“I don't think the president is captured by Israel in the least. I think he decides what is in the best interest of the United States, and if Israel can be a part of that, then they're a part of it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 29:31 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 6, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: The US maintains the world's best submarine and space tech
“Our subs, our space layer we still have the best stuff in the world”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:20:44 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Graham Allison: No evidence Iran was about to attack U.S. or acquire nuclear weapon
“The arguments that were made that that Trump has actually repeated that Iran was about to attack us, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack th…”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 5:09 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Graham Allison: China's economy is 25% larger than US by PPP
“Today, by pursuing power parity, it's 25% larger.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 34:43 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allison: US is on track to reach a resolution over Greenland
“I think we're on track to a resolution there.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 42:42 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allison: Current US wealth concentration is politically unsustainable in a democracy
“It's just not stable in a democracy. If everybody gets a vote, And if the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not Stable and sustainable, I think.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 58:05 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Allison: US can achieve strategic goals in Greenland without owning it
“We can, we the U.S. Can get everything we want from Greenland without invading it or owning it.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 40:40 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 11, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
SEC Chair Atkins notes US public companies halved over 30 years
“We have fully today half the number of public companies as we had 30 years ago”
Paul Atkins Mar 11, 2026 ▶ 2:27 They're Opening the Stock Market to Everyone. Here's What That Actually Means
Mar 11, 2026 negative
Opinion
SEC Chair Atkins says equity investment culture is absent in Europe
“What they also really envy is our risk appetite here in the United States where people are, have an equity investment culture, and that is really largely absent in Japan. And in Europe”
Paul Atkins Mar 11, 2026 ▶ 46:57 They're Opening the Stock Market to Everyone. Here's What That Actually Means
Mar 17, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Michael Dell: One out of 10 US children is born in Texas
“One out of 10 children born in the United States, born in Texas.”
Michael Dell Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 38:03 Two Legendary Founders: Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas
Mar 18, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fetterman predicts the US will succeed in Iran with or without NATO
“Now, I do believe we will be successful with or without their help”
John Fetterman Mar 18, 2026 ▶ 15:18 John Fetterman: 'I'm the Only Democrat in Congress Saying This'
Mar 19, 2026 negative
Opinion
Jensen Huang: Top US AI security risk is slow domestic adoption
“Our greatest source of national security concern with respect to AI is that other countries adopt this technology while we are so angry at it or afraid of it or somehow paranoid of it that Our industries, our society don't take advantage of AI.”
Jensen Huang Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 17:59 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
Mar 19, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: China is building 100 fission reactors while US builds zero
“We have a hundred fission reactors being built in China and zero in the United States.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 20:36 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Over 40% of America's unsheltered homeless live in California
“And yet we lead the nation in unsheltered homelessness over 40% of the people living outside in tents in the entire country live in California, which is only about 12% of the country's population.”
Matt Mahan Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 31:10 How Matt Mahan Thinks He Can Save California
Mar 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mensch: Mistral AI has 25% of business and researchers in US
“First, we have 25% of our business in the US and 25% of our researchers are actually here.”
Arthur Mensch Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:08:37 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
Mar 27, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: China published 50% more scientific papers than US last year
“10 years ago, China published 50% of the number of scientific research papers and peer-reviewed journals as the United States. Last year they published 50% more than the United States.”
David Friedberg Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 1:16:14 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Mar 27, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Tort litigation costs the U.S. $900 billion annually
“Tort litigation, you know, costs our economy, nine hundred billion dollars a year in the United States. Nine hundred billion a year. That's how much is spent on the litigation costs, the settlements, the judgments. It's three percent of GDP. And it's growing r…”
David Friedberg Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 52:04 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Apr 3, 2026
Opinion
Chamath: Middle Eastern allies have higher incentive to deploy troops than U.S.
“I think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground, Jason, than America is.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 41:46 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 3, 2026 neutral
Insight
Chamath: A US-China bipolar world order is the global Nash equilibrium
“And I think a world where it's bipolar, where it's the United States and China, roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world, is probably the Nash equilibrium here.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 1:00:17 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Apr 6, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sankar: Half of all new clinical trials worldwide now occur in China
“There's a reason 50% of all clinical trials, new clinical trials are happening in China and not in the US.”
Shyam Sankar Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 33:22 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Apr 6, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stephens: Multipolar world order will quickly collapse if US cedes primary leadership
“The moment that you step back from that and someone else has all those incentives you start playing the rules of their game and it doesn't stay multipolar for long.”
Trey Stevens Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 1:08:44 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Apr 6, 2026
Insight
Sankar: American greatness begins when the US realizes it is the underdog
“All periods of American greatness have started when we realize that we're the underdog.”
Shyam Sankar Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 1:01:35 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Apr 6, 2026 negative
What-if
Sankar: Early US regulations surrendered the global consumer drone market to China
“There is a counterfactual world where General Atomics had a consumer subsidiary called DJI, and the consumer drone market was entirely owned by the US, and it provided for economic prosperity for America, and wrote us down the price production curve that we co…”
Shyam Sankar Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 31:59 The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
Apr 10, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: The US and Israel will find an off-ramp in Iran war
“All of that kind of tells me that we will find an off ramp.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 10, 2026 ▶ 1:18:14 Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
May 12, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Charles Koch: US political trajectory will continue leading country 'to hell'
“I think we continue this, but we're going to hell in a basket.”
Charles Koch May 12, 2026 ▶ 1:19:15 How We Grew Koch Industries to $150 Billion Without Going Public: Charles & Chase Koch
May 22, 2026 negative
Insight
Friedberg: Slowing US AI development risks disrupting global geopolitical balance
“If we do try and slow down AI, we kind of lose this moment of balance that's necessary when you have a technology proliferation, like we saw with the arms race after World War II, that, you know, we're gonna see again here.”
David Friedberg May 22, 2026 ▶ 24:57 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US-China summit failed to produce grand de-escalation deal
“And, you know, there were some purchases of aircraft and some agricultural product commitments, but fundamentally the grand deal, the big deal that I would say reduces, deescalates tension probably didn't manifest as some had hoped it would.”
David Friedberg May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:34:05 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya: China is less than nine months behind US in AI
“I think it's actually good that China is less than nine months behind us.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 22, 2026 ▶ 28:17 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Jun 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friar: AI training mostly occurs in US for national security reasons
“There's training that mostly still all happens here in the United States. For USG reasons, for making sure that a national asset in effect is happening on US soil.”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 13:30 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 8, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arora predicts 10 years for US to fulfill hardware supply chain needs
“In 10 years.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 27:39 Palo Alto Networks CEO: "AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks"
Jun 10, 2026
Assertion Supported
Dreyfus: Parts of the US electrical grid are over 106 years old
“There's parts of the grid in this country that are over a 106 years old.”
Dan Dreyfus Jun 10, 2026 ▶ 4:12 Dan Dreyfus: The Next AI Bottleneck is Copper
Jun 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US will need 10 to 20 years to catch China in critical minerals
“China has an absolute grip, it's absolute, on all of these critical minerals. And it's gonna take at least 10 years, probably 20 to catch up”
Dan Dreyfus Jun 10, 2026 ▶ 7:35 Dan Dreyfus: The Next AI Bottleneck is Copper
Jun 10, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Dreyfus: US cannot build nuclear containment vessels domestically
“And nuclear, you know, we can't really build it. We can't even build the containment vessels in this country. The Koreans can do it, but we can't do that here.”
Dan Dreyfus Jun 10, 2026 ▶ 22:06 Dan Dreyfus: The Next AI Bottleneck is Copper
Jul 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: 255,000 children born annually in US to non-citizens
“255,000 children are born every year to non-citizen parents.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 59:32 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sachs: One-third of historical Ellis Island immigrants returned to home countries
“One-third of immigrants who arrived at Ellis Island actually returned home. Two percent were not allowed entry due to health or criminal problems, but a third actually went back.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:18:03 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Banning open-source AI in the US won't stop international adoption
“If you were to do something like ban open source in the United States, you'll put the United States on an island. The rest of the world is not going to follow suit. The rest of the world wants to use open models because of the advantages they offer.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 55:55 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 11, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: US faces a three-California energy deficit by 2050 without AI
“If you just look at the load growth that's expected between now and 20 50. We are about three entire California's worth of energy short. And that's just assuming regular consumption of devices and cars, fridges, televisions and computers. So we are, we have a,…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 1:02:06 OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Jul 15, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Gelsinger: US leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing share grew from 12% to 18%
“When I came back, the U.S. Was building about 12% of leading edge. Today, that number is more like 18%.”
Pat Gelsinger Jul 15, 2026 ▶ 15:19 Former Intel CEO on What Went Wrong, What's Next + Lovable CEO on the Real Promise of Vibe Coding
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Anti-GMO sentiment in U.S. did not exist before Russia Today
“Russia Today, this Russian media outlet launched in the U.S. In 2010. They were kicked out of the U.S. By Biden in 2022. And you can see that prior to Russia Today existing in the U.S., there was no anti-GMO sentiment.”
David Friedberg Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:11:52 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Permission-based AI regulation will cause US to lose race to China
“But when you're talking about AI models, you're talking about replacing a system that is releasing new versions Every couple of months with one that is potentially fully under the control of government, fully government approved, everything has to be certified…”
David Sacks Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 12:31 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: The US may only be months ahead of China in AI
“Kimmy K three just came out and people are saying it's now right up there. It's very, very close to the frontier. We may have months on China if that.”
David Sacks Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:18:32 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 24, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Eroding private property rights will lead to tyranny in America
“As soon as those rights start to slip away, even in the tiniest way, it is a cascading effect. And everything will become tyrannical, and it will be very ugly in the United States of America.”
David Friedberg Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 1:22:46 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McMaster: Chinese quadruped robots in US are leaking data to China
“We've already heard about leaks that are happening with some of the quadrupeds that you're seeing in the United States and being back channeled back to China.”
Amanda McMaster Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 43:04 The $1/Hour Robot Is Coming: Four Industry Leaders Explain What’s Next
Jul 29, 2026
Insight
Hurst: Increased automation is the only way to grow US GDP
“How do we, in the United States anyway, how do we build our GDP? It's not a growing population. It's increased efficiency and capability, and the only way we could do that is more and more automation.”
Professor Jonathan Hurst Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 1:00:53 The $1/Hour Robot Is Coming: Four Industry Leaders Explain What’s Next
Jul 30, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: High Treasury yields will pop more asset bubbles
“And I think we're going to see more of this as we don't actually course correct the Titanic going into the iceberg of the United States fiscal and monetary situation. We are going to end up seeing more bubbles pop and more of these assets that we've kind of in…”
David Friedberg Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 18:21 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Aug 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mavrucas: China outbuilds the US in shipping tonnage 230 to 1
“The United States can build a 100,000 gross tons of ships every year. Gross ton is this volumetric measure of ships, so if you build, you know, a 200 foot ship, that's different than an 800 foot ship, but let's compare apples to apples. A 100,000 gross tons. T…”
Dino Mavrucas Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 5:31 China Outbuilds America 230-to-1. Saronic Has a Plan
Aug 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Mavrucas: US-built ships cost five to six times more than Chinese ships
“So the ship built in the United States is actually five to six times the cost of that same ship built in China.”
Dino Mavrucas Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 6:25 China Outbuilds America 230-to-1. Saronic Has a Plan
Aug 5, 2026
Assertion Supported
Mavrucas: China built 1,000 commercial ships last year versus America's five
“They delivered over a thousand commercial ships last year. The United States built five.”
Dino Mavrucas Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 7:57 China Outbuilds America 230-to-1. Saronic Has a Plan
Aug 5, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mavrucas: Modern shipyards can cut US shipbuilding costs in half
“We think just by investing in product and processes and new shipyards, we can cut the cost of a ship in the United States in half. So if you have a ship that costs three hundred million dollars, we can get that under a hundred and fifty million.”
Dino Mavrucas Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 42:43 China Outbuilds America 230-to-1. Saronic Has a Plan
Aug 5, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Mavrucas: Saronic's 800-acre site is the largest US shipyard
“800 acre plot of land, which in and of itself, 800 acres is now the largest shipyard in the United States.”
Dino Mavrucas Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 37:40 China Outbuilds America 230-to-1. Saronic Has a Plan
Aug 12, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Emanuel: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar Are Hedging Against U.S. Dependence
“Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar look like they're hedging. They know they're reliant on America, but they're not going to be so dependent that they're vulnerable because of the lack of the leadership in two wars, Iran and Iraq.”
Rahm Emanuel Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 18:44 Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
Aug 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emanuel: China reached life sciences parity with the US within five years
“Massively invests in the life sciences, and within five years, China is not just nipping at our heels, the peripersu with the United States in life sciences. A place that the United States, outside of one or two examples in Europe, dominated.”
Rahm Emanuel Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 14:43 Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
Aug 12, 2026 positive
Opinion
Emanuel: US Should Build Allied Economic Bloc Rather Than Relying on Tariffs
“I happen to think, coming back from Japan, etc., That rather than have terrorists, we should have an economic block. So all of us together can withstand China to actually organize not only that economic block, but then kind of other meet them in the marketplac…”
Rahm Emanuel Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 7:25 Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
Aug 12, 2026 positive
Opinion
Emanuel: US Must Double Military Troops and Resources in the Philippines
“We already have troops there, and we already have resources. We need to double them up and give Philippines the confidence, especially given that President Marcos is taking massive risks.”
Rahm Emanuel Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 24:48 Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
Aug 12, 2026
Assertion Supported
Emanuel: Japan and the US are each other's top foreign direct investors
“Last five years in a row, number one direct foreign investor in the United States, Japan. Last five years in a row, number one direct foreign investor in Japan, the United States.”
Rahm Emanuel Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 27:33 Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US AI spend will hit $1T as companies adopt tokens
“There is no world in which I don't see corporations and people in the economy spending five or 10% of the salaries of their employees on the equivalent in tokens. In other words, somebody makes 80,000 dollars a year on average, they're gonna, you will spend 80…”
Jason Calacanis Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:13:32 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Banning open-source AI means losing the AI race to China
“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 39:12 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: A global compute governance agreement with China will never happen
“These EA types thought they're gonna institute global compute governance. Somehow they're gonna get, like, Some global agreement with China. Total pipe dream. Never going to happen. If we slow down, China is just going to race ahead.”
David Sacks Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 53:33 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 21, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Slow FDA cycles are shifting global biotech investment to China
“And then separately, a lot of biotech has moved offshore from the U S for the same reason that you're pointing out, which is the FDA approval cycle. Is so long and the stages slow people down so much and China's completely revamped their rules for getting to c…”
David Friedberg Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 17:13 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 21, 2026
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US overall inflation rose 96% between 2000 and 2026
“By the way, this chart is showing all the way from 2000 to 2026. So it's a 26 year time frame. And during that time, overall inflation went up 96%. So the price level almost doubled in that 26 year period.”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 1:19:00 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: US will get smoked by China if AI faces pre-release regulation
“And yes, we will get smoked by China because they will not subject all their companies to these constraints.”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 17:48 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Restricting US AI Will Cause Foreign Direct Investment to Collapse
“And what you will see is FDI foreign direct investment in the United States go off of a cliff. And what you will see is direct investments into other countries of the world rise.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 33:18 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 21, 2026
Assertion Supported
Sacks: U.S. Murder Rate Dropped 20% to Lowest Level in 70 Years
“Murders have dropped around 20% year over year, and the murder rate is the lowest in 70 years.”
David Sacks Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 1:04:45 Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
Aug 24, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Kratsios: 70% of US STEM PhD Candidates Are Non-American
“The idea that, you know, seven out of 10 STEM-related PhD candidates in the United States are not American.”
Michael Kratsios Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 41:28 Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsios
Aug 24, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Kratsios: US will return to Moon and deploy space reactor by 2028
“We're going to have American boots back on the moon in 28. We said we're going to have a nuclear reactor in space by 28. We're going to have the first elements of a moon base by twenty-thirty. These are like big, bold bets that take a decade to accomplish, and…”
Michael Kratsios Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 23:32 Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsios
Aug 24, 2026
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: China R&D Spending Grew 19x to $670B by 2021
“China was spending thirty three billion dollars a year. 2021. Six hundred and seventy billion. So China increased spending by 19 x. Over the same time period, the US increased spending by roughly three x.”
David Friedberg Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 34:08 Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsios
Aug 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weinstein: US failure with Iran will trigger global nuclear proliferation
“And by the way, if the US fails with Iran, you're going to see a proliferation of countries acquiring nukes because we trusted the US.”
Eric Weinstein Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 1:05:42 Eric Weinstein: The State of American Science, Breakthrough Coverups, and the Danger of Physics
Aug 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: AI optimism exceeds 80% in China versus 30% in US
“AI optimism in China is over 80%, meaning they pull on the question, do you think AI will be more beneficial and harmful? Over 80% of Chinese people say yes. In the US, that number is in like 30%.”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 5:00 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Aug 29, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Domestic pessimism is America's biggest risk in US-China AI race
“So I've been saying for a while that the US is ahead of China in every category except one, which is optimism. And that is the biggest risk to us winning this AI race against China is doing something that will shoot ourselves in the foot because we're so pessi…”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 5:12 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Sep 4, 2026 positive
Opinion
Sacks: US Venezuela oil agreement is purely a business deal, not nation building
“Well, I definitely don't think this is nation building. You know, we're not trying to stand up an army here like we did in Afghanistan. We're not trying to teach them about toxic masculinity. We're not trying to stand up a government or anything like that. We'…”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 1:21:06 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US Gulf refineries are built for heavy Venezuelan crude, not light crude
“Our refineries in the Gulf were built for heavy crude, and it's very expensive to try and retrofit them to do the light crude. So actually, our refineries are sort of perfectly set up to take in this heavy crude and turn it into diesel and other distillates.”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 1:23:08 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 12, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Recursive AI improvement will happen somewhere, creating an uncatchable lead
“The recursive self-improvement scenario will play out somewhere on planet Earth, and when that happens, when that person or that organization or that country now has that capacity, they have now a huge technological advantage, and then it becomes very hard to …”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 45:33 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: US nuclear power costs $15B per gigawatt versus $1B in China
“The cost to produce a gigawatt of nuclear power in the US today is like fifteen billion dollars. The cost in France is four, and the cost in China is one.”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 16:39 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
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