Facebook

also referred to as: meta

includes Facebook Messenger, Facebook Marketplace, Facebook Like, Facebook News Feed, Facebook Home, Facebook Instant Articles, Facebook Spaces, Facebook Live, Facebook F8, Facebook Login, Facebook Video, Facebook Paper and 7 more

268 statements across 170 episodes · 85 bullish · 70 bearish · 105 people on the record · first statement Jul 15, 2017 by Benedict Evans · said 1,640 times in 415 episodes since 2017 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Benedict Evans (236), Chris Dixon (103), Marc Andreessen (80), Ben Horowitz (58), Balaji Srinivasan (58), Kyle Russell (57), Connie Chan (48), Anu Hariharan (46)

tap a year for its mentions
005001251,0002502017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
01252502017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
002.512552502017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 71 mentions in 26 episodes 3 per episode
2025 231 mentions in 58 episodes 4 per episode
2024 79 mentions in 21 episodes 4 per episode
2023 87 mentions in 32 episodes 3 per episode
2022 24 mentions in 5 episodes 5 per episode
2021 4 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2020 9 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2019 982 mentions in 223 episodes 4 per episode
2018 84 mentions in 23 episodes 4 per episode
2017 69 mentions in 20 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Facebook, oldest first

Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: Facebook built a $6.5B mobile ad run rate in 24 months
“It's done, it's now has a six and a half billion dollar run rate mobile ad business that has appeared out of nowhere in 24 months.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 4:17 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Combined GAFA revenues remain smaller than TV and advertising
“Even Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon combined there, or GAFA, as the telecoms industry tends to call them add up to less than TV business or advertising and are much, much smaller than mobile or proper, proper industries like cars or clothes.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 8:55 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Tech brands comprise 40% of top 100 global brand value
“So technology brands are now 40% of the value of the top 100 brands. Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon are almost 20%.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 7:38 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017
Assertion Supported
Evans: 800 billion photos were shared on social networks in 2014
“2014, at least eight hundred billion photographs were shared on social networks across Facebook, Snapchat WeChat, and the other major networks.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 19:45 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: Facebook built a $7.5B mobile ad business in two years
“The obvious expression of this is Facebook, which has built a seven and a half billion dollar mobile advertising business from scratch in the last couple of years.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 15:58 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017
Assertion Supported
Evans: Facebook is the world's largest mobile web browser
“So, 15 to 20% of mobile time spent is actually happening inside Facebook, which makes it the world's largest mobile web browser.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 11:59 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: Tech giants occupy the top five spots by market valuation
“Today, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and yes, Microsoft are all the five, are the five biggest companies on the stock exchange.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:26 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Big Tech annual capital expenditure reached $34 billion in 2015
“Annual capex across these companies has gone from one billion dollars in 2000 to thirty four billion dollars in 2015.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:44 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 16, 2017 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Massive Reach Will Not Sustain Broadcast TV Against Facebook and Snapchat
“Facebook and Snapchat increasingly are aggregating similar size audiences. So the concept of reach isn't going to be a sustainable differentiator over time.”
Jeff Jordan Jul 16, 2017 ▶ 11:18 How 'Going Direct' Changes Everything: for Brands, Retail, Marketing, and Advertising
Jul 16, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Chen: AI algorithms can generate written recipes by watching cooking videos
“Algorithms are now able to watch the exact same videos that you're watching on YouTube or Facebook, and they're basically able to retroactively create the cookbook instructions for that recipe.”
Frank Chen Jul 16, 2017 ▶ 17:10 The Promise of AI
Jul 28, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Mars: Tech giants are building future data centers around deep learning
“Deep learning is absolutely the bet that companies are making, right? So Google has put a lot of resources into deep learning you know, Facebook. We're designing future data centers and future infrastructures around this one technique, and it's primarily becau…”
Jason Mars Jul 28, 2017 ▶ 13:15 Jason Mars
Jul 29, 2017 negative
Opinion
Horowitz: Better to be a Facebook janitor than a bad startup's CEO
“Going to a bad startup is kind of miserable, like, I'd actually rather be the janitor at Facebook than CEO of a bad startup.”
Ben Horowitz Jul 29, 2017 ▶ 40:53 On Career Moves and Business Leadership
Jul 29, 2017 negative
Insight
Horowitz: Proprietary Deep Learning Breakthroughs Are Hard Due to Open-Source AI
“So everything out of academia is going into open source and then everything out of Google is being open sourced, and Facebook, and so forth. So it's really hard To do a proprietary breakthrough, like, you know, in, like, ok, I've got something that's, whatever…”
Ben Horowitz Jul 29, 2017 ▶ 46:36 On Career Moves and Business Leadership
Dec 5, 2017 neutral
Insight
Evans: Dominant Tech Giants Always Look Invulnerable Right Before They Fall
“The winners always look invulnerable until they don't. So, IBM looked invulnerable, then Microsoft, Intel, Nokia did, then the internet giants of the last bubble, now Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon look invulnerable, but all the previous ones fell, and it was…”
Benedict Evans Dec 5, 2017 ▶ 4:57 10 Year Futures (vs. What's Happening Now)
Dec 5, 2017 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Google and Facebook captured half of print's internet ad revenue
“Internet took about half of the print industry's advertising revenue and growing, but Google and Facebook took half of that.”
Benedict Evans Dec 5, 2017 ▶ 3:38 10 Year Futures (vs. What's Happening Now)
Dec 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Conde: Facebook reduced clinical trial patient recruitment costs by 96%
“So Facebook, for example, as I mentioned earlier, is using their social network to help us identify and recruit patients for clinical trials. And in fact, they did a pilot project with the Michael J. Fox foundation where they were able to reduce the cost and t…”
Jorge Conde Dec 15, 2017 ▶ 15:02 Challenges in Healthcare Innovation
Mar 7, 2018 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chan: WeChat launched business accounts four years before Facebook bots
“WeChat launched its very first official account in April of 2012. Four years later, Mark Zuckerberg launched messaging bots for businesses.”
Connie Chan Mar 7, 2018 ▶ 13:33 Beyond a Zero-Sum Game: Tech Innovation and China
Mar 7, 2018 bullish
Insight
Chan: Entrepreneurs can import Chinese business models before US giants adapt
“Likewise, you know which products, market fits, and business models are doing incredibly well in China, and you can take those models to the U.S. Before the next Facebook or Google figures that out.”
Connie Chan Mar 7, 2018 ▶ 14:10 Beyond a Zero-Sum Game: Tech Innovation and China
May 5, 2018 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Xie: Crypto lets users own identity without centralized platform control
“Something that's particularly relevant today with what we've been seeing with what's happening with Facebook is that you can now have people Own their own identity and reputation data without having this to be in the control of centralized parties.”
Linda Xie May 5, 2018 ▶ 20:31 An Intro to Crypto: Building Blocks
May 15, 2018 positive
Insight
Chan: O2O 2.0 allows brick-and-mortar stores to act as logged-in digital platforms
“This O to O, two point O concept means you are logging into physical spaces, just like you log into Amazon, just like you log into Facebook. What this means is physical spaces now are using technology to fight back against this death of retail.”
Connie Chan May 15, 2018 ▶ 3:00 Online to Offline 2.0: Experiments and Examples from China
Jul 15, 2018 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stark: Big tech UX talent will solve crypto usability challenges
“Getting the folks that say maybe we're doing You exit, you know, Apple, Google, Facebook, and coming into this world that can really think through these problems and develop compelling user experiences, I think is going to be a big part of it.”
Elizabeth Stark Jul 15, 2018 ▶ 34:52 An Intro to Crypto: Decentralization, the Big Picture
Jul 15, 2018 negative
Opinion
Dixon: Tech power concentration is at its highest since peak Microsoft
“We live in a time where I think we have probably the greatest concentration of power in, on the internet that, that I mean, you know, or in the technology world since probably Microsoft at its peak in the nineties.”
Chris Dixon Jul 15, 2018 ▶ 6:10 An Intro to Crypto: Decentralization, the Big Picture
Aug 20, 2018 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zuegel: Web2 OAuth restricts developers through centralized platform gatekeeping
“And it doesn't give you all the information that you could possibly want because it's dependent on Google and Facebook and Twitter and so on, ah, to give you the information that they're willing to give, which is pretty limited.”
Devon Zuegel Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 27:39 Crypto and the Evolution of Open Source
Oct 26, 2018
Insight
Startups and Tech Giants Both Benefit From Focusing on Narrow Verticals
“Whether you're Facebook or a brand new company, it always helps to focus on a tight vertical.”
Alex Rampell Oct 26, 2018 ▶ 3:18 Distribution, Channel & Partnerships
Dec 5, 2018 positive
Assertion Supported
Chan: Tencent caps WeChat Moments ads to just two per day
“And so on WeChat moments, your equivalent of your Facebook newsfeed, they've capped the number of ads to just two per day.”
Connie Chan Dec 5, 2018 ▶ 5:07 When Advertising Isn't Enough
Dec 5, 2018 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chan: Facebook generates 98.5% of its revenue from advertising
“Facebook, 98.5% of their revenue comes from advertising.”
Connie Chan Dec 5, 2018 ▶ 2:19 When Advertising Isn't Enough
Dec 8, 2018 bullish
Insight
Auto-Generated Shareable Videos Enable Organic Acquisition Without Paid Ads
“The nice thing is that what happens is every time you use the product, you're going with a group of friends. It's fun to take photos. You generate a video at the end of your experience that then you share to social media. And that means that this type of compa…”
Andrew Chen Dec 8, 2018 ▶ 18:49 What's Next in Consumer Startups?
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Google Views Apple as a Channel, Not an Existential Competitor
“Google is not in a one-to-one fight to the death with Apple. You could argue it's in a one-to-one fight to the death with Facebook. Or even potentially with Amazon. But Apple is a channel.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:44 a16z Podcast | Apple and Google Won the Mobile OS War, But a New War Has Already Begun
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Benedict Evans: On smartphones, the device itself is the platform
“The smartphone itself becomes a social platform, whereas Facebook, you know, whereas, you know, on the desktop you had the browser, and then inside the browser you had Facebook, and then inside Facebook you had a social platform, whereas on a smartphone that's…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:24 a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile’s Own PageRank
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Chan: Calling companies the "Facebook of China" ignores distinct business models
“Business models and monetization, there's a lot of innovation happening out in China, and I think a big mistake that people make is they look at a company and they say, oh, this is the Facebook of China, this is the Yelp of China, this is the Groupon of China,…”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:28 a16z Podcast | China and Tech
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: iOS extensions enable Google and Facebook to integrate deeper into iOS
“And so the funny thing here is, of course, this is basically giving Google and Facebook a whole list of ways to get the hooks deeper into iOS.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:18 a16z Podcast | The Apple WWDC 2014 Deep Dive
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Levine: Facebook and Google Outpace Cisco in Networking Sophistication
“Yeah it's very fair to say. I think they, Facebook and Google, have absolutely pushed the needle on back-end data center infrastructure”
Peter Levine Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:30 a16z Podcast | Datacenter of the Future
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Levine: Google and Facebook infrastructure is more advanced than AWS
“I think that the Google and Facebook infrastructure is now moving in my opinion, more advanced than what Amazon is. Amazon was created several, many, sort of, already generations ago, relative to this commoditization curve.”
Peter Levine Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:56 a16z Podcast | Datacenter of the Future
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Evans: Desktop users navigate to daily sites by searching Google directly
“Google picks up that vast long tail of, and it probably, in fact, on the desktop internet, Google also picks up the 20 things that you use every day, because that's how you get to them. You just go into Google and you search for Facebook, or you go into Google…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:15 a16z Podcast | The Topic That's Lasted the Entire History of Computing -- Bundling and Unbundling
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Masters: Startups cannot match Google or Facebook compensation to recruit top talent
“And I think that's the only way that if you're a startup, that's the only way that you're going to, you know, you're not going to be able to pay as much as Google or Facebook at this point. And that's the only way to attract people. Probably.”
Blake Masters Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:41 a16z Podcast | Secrets, Power Laws, and Technology – The Ideas of “Zero to One”
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Dixon: VC regret comes from missing potential mega-outliers, not moderate successes
“If you pass on a company where, okay, that maybe they'll be successful. You don't stay up at night thinking about that. If you pass on the company that there's a one percent chance at the next Google and people are going to talk about this story for the next 3…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:22 a16z Podcast | Secrets, Power Laws, and Technology – The Ideas of “Zero to One”
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nir Eyal: Facebook's business model relies entirely on unprompted user habits
“Facebook's business model couldn't survive if they had to pay for an ad every time someone checked their newsfeed, right? They couldn't afford it. It has to be unprompted. It has to be a habit.”
Nir Eyal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:19 a16z Podcast | Trigger, Action, Reward, Investment -- Four Steps for Habit-Forming Products
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Madrigal: Facebook currently dominates online media distribution and internet traffic
“Facebook right now has eaten the internet, you know.”
Alexis Madrigal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:06 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Media
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Disclosure
Madrigal: Facebook drives an order of magnitude more traffic than Twitter
“Oh, an order of magnitude.”
Alexis Madrigal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:44 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Media
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Disclosure
Madrigal: Facebook sends The Atlantic more traffic than the entire web combined
“And so we've been able to sort of back into a bunch of different types of experiments, and seeing natural experiments that are running and find that basically Facebook is sending more traffic to us than the entire rest of the internet that we can see combined.”
Alexis Madrigal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:23 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Media
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Madrigal: Facebook and Google hold hegemonic control over the mobile advertising market
“Facebook and Google essentially having hegemonic control over mobile advertising, which is where everyone sees things going.”
Alexis Madrigal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:32 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Media
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Madrigal: Repackaging an Atlantic Facebook post boosted traffic to one million readers
“We had a story about tattoos and why, how tattoos work, like, within your body, and it's like a health story, and we sold it once on Facebook and I think on Wednesday, and kind of nothing happened. You know, maybe we're talking a few thousand unique visitors t…”
Alexis Madrigal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:57 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Media
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Felten: Displacing incumbent cryptocurrencies requires superior utility to overcome network effects
“I think it's the case that if you can convince the community that your new thing is enough better in, along some dimension they really care about, then there will be a space for your currency to get a foothold. Maybe something that existed before falls away, r…”
Ed Felten Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:27 a16z Podcast | Beyond Bitcoin -- The Blockchain
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Sheryl Sandberg met every Facebook employee in week one
“Cheryl comes into, this is actually a true story, Cheryl comes into Facebook, and the first week she goes around and introduces herself to every single employee.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:53 a16z Podcast | What Makes the Valley Work
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Mark Zuckerberg had zero work experience before Facebook CEO role
“Like, Mark Zuckerberg did not have a job before he started Facebook. Like, his first job in the world was CEO of Facebook, right? Like, didn't work over the summer at McDonald's, like, nothing. Like, no experience, no nothing.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:01 a16z Podcast | What Makes the Valley Work
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Disclosure
Andreessen nicknamed Sheryl Sandberg 'T-Rex' during her early Facebook days
“My nickname for Cheryl at the time was T-Rex because, you know, having met, you know, it's like, talk about strong personalities, like.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:35 a16z Podcast | What Makes the Valley Work
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Requiring Facebook logins elevates online comment and engagement quality for ESPN
“And simple things like using Facebook as a qualifier for conversation. It lifts the quality of engagement.”
Ryan Spoon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:59 a16z Podcast | When Fantasy Football and Crowdfunding Collide
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Facebook acts as Myanmar's primary internet portal, similar to 1990s AOL
“For many people who are connected in Myanmar, it's still a small percentage of the population, but Facebook is the internet. It's almost like AOL in the late nineties here in the States.”
David Madden Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:08 a16z Podcast | Technology and the Opening of Myanmar
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Viber reached 5 million Myanmar users, surpassing Facebook's 2.2 million
“Facebook has I mean, Facebook has about 2.2 million people online in, in Myanmar, Facebook users. But Viber announced just in August that they had five million users. And what's the difference? Well, you don't need an email address to sign up for Viber. All yo…”
David Madden Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:58 a16z Podcast | Technology and the Opening of Myanmar
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Myanmar journalists measure audience reach in Facebook likes, not page views
“And I found experiences that sort of going around and talking to journalists in Myanmar, they don't talk in terms of page views, they don't talk in terms of readers, they talk in terms of likes.”
Ethan Zuckerman Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:12 a16z Podcast | Technology and the Opening of Myanmar
Jan 2, 2019
Opinion
Evans: Apple is less of a competitor to Facebook and Amazon than Google
“Apple is less of a competitor to both Facebook and Amazon than Google is.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:02 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Facebook is just one of many social networks on mobile
“This is why Facebook has gone from being the only social network on desktop to being only one of many social networks on mobile”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:15 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Granger: Programming languages model computer hardware rather than human processes
“We have this weird case right now where our languages, Python, pick any language, right? Is actually designed to model computer interaction, right? It's designed to model how computers work. Like, I'm gonna send TCP messages, and so on and so forth. But if you…”
Chris Granger Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:25 a16z Podcast | Coding as Literacy
Jan 2, 2019
Disclosure
Dixon: A16z tried to recruit Michael Abrash weeks before Facebook bought Oculus
“We'd like, for example, Michael Abersh, we try, I actually flew up to Seattle a couple of weeks before the Facebook acquisition, cause we were trying to recruit him for so long.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:12 a16z Podcast | Virtual Reality v Augmented Reality, and What's Next
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Facebook and Amazon will continue pushing into mobile operating systems
“But that doesn't mean that Facebook and Amazon are going to give up, because, you know, there is this sort of fundamental existential question, well, how do you find stuff? And how do you give just J stuff to your friends? And where does that happen within the…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:17 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Facebook board meetings never exceed four hours in total
“Facebook board meetings don't go longer than four hours in total.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 27:40 a16z Podcast | The Truth about Serving on Boards (with Diane Greene and Marc Andreessen)
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Facebook bought Instagram for 1% and WhatsApp for 10% of valuation
“They bought Instagram for whatever it was, one percent of the value of the company, and then they bought Facebook for, so then they bought WhatsApp for, say, 10% of the value of the company.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:59 a16z Podcast | Messaging is the Medium
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Evans: Facebook Has Not Created New User Behavior Since News Feed
“Well, they haven't actually created any new behavior since the newsfeed. What they'done is they bought Instagram, and they bought it very early at what at the time everyone said was a ludicrously high price. At the time, it was, actually, it was a very good pr…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:32 a16z Podcast | Messaging is the Medium
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Chris Dixon: Tech platforms and telecom carriers are entering total war
“It's now kind of just total war where everyone is fighting everyone, you know, Google and Facebook are building internet access and Verizon is getting into content and they're getting into TV and they're just, you know, so there's no, You know, in some ways, a…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:15 a16z Podcast | Verizon Plus AOL -- Why? -- The Short Answer is Mobile
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Chris Dixon: Ad tech startups must sell quickly during M&A consolidation waves
“My advice was always, when that happens, you gotta, like, It's like musical chairs. And if you don't get a seat, you know, you're probably screwed because now these guys are all part of, you now have your direct competitor is now part of Google and part of Fac…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:29 a16z Podcast | Verizon Plus AOL -- Why? -- The Short Answer is Mobile
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Global annual photos taken likely reaches 10 to 100 trillion
“Even if you just add up the numbers from Facebook and Snapchat, Facebook and Instagram and WhatsApp and so on, you get to about eight or nine hundred billion photographs taken last year. And that's just, sorry, shared. So if there were eight or nine hundred bi…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:30 a16z Podcast | For Google, Android is a Tactic and Cloud is a Strategy
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Evans: Startup failure costs $1M today versus $40M in 2000
“In 2000, if that failed, that was 50 to a hundred people, and 20, 30, forty million dollars gone. Today, exactly the same product. Is a hundred grand, 500 grand, a million dollars, three, four, five people who are out trying to get a good job at Google and Fac…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:04 a16z Podcast | The Rise of the Quasi-IPO
Jan 2, 2019
Disclosure
Matei Zaharia interned at Facebook in 2007 when it had 300 employees
“I was a PhD student at UC Berkeley, and we actually started working with Hadoop users back in 2007. And I did, for example, an internship at Facebook when Facebook was only about 300 people and they were just starting to set up Hadoop.”
Matei Zaharia Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:44 a16z Podcast | A Conversation With the Inventor of Spark
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Daneshwar: Iranians routinely use VPNs to access blocked social media platforms
“Facebook advertisement is closed for Iranians, like Google AdWords as well, but the fact that people here are having the full access to Twitter, to Facebook, and Facebook is blocked by the government as well, but we are going through the VPNs, so everybody is …”
Nazanin Daneshwar Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:43 a16z Podcast | Layering Tech and Culture in Iran
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Facebook launched on $500,000 in initial funding
“Facebook got started on 500,000 dollars.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:01 a16z Podcast | When Bio Meets Computer Science
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Schroeder: Global social platforms dominate worldwide, but e-commerce requires local adaptations
“The LinkedIn of India is LinkedIn. The Facebook of India is fundamentally Facebook. The Twitter of India is fundamentally LinkedIn. This is not true in e-commerce.”
Chris Schroeder Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 27:25 a16z Podcast | How Innovation Ecosystems Grow Around the Globe
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Key signing parties were identity verification standard pre-social media
“It was the best practice until we had Twitter and Reddit and Facebook.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:36 a16z Podcast | Establishing Online Identity is Hard -- It Shouldn't Be
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: A near-future US presidential election will pivot entirely on social networks
“I think there is going to be an election in which the entire thing is going to pivot on social networks, and it's going to turn out that the candidate that most effectively used Facebook and Pinterest and Twitter and all these things is, is, is the one who win…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 43:31 a16z Podcast | Tech's Biggest Ideas and How They Take Hold -- With Marc Andreessen and Dan Siroker
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: All 59 US private tech unicorns combined equal one Facebook
“There's like 59 U.S. Tech companies that are private and are worth more than a billion dollars. If you add them all up, they're worth about one Facebook.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:33 a16z Podcast | Tech's Biggest Ideas and How They Take Hold -- With Marc Andreessen and Dan Siroker
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Pierce: Social networks force users to play curated, performative personas
“Social networks kind of necessarily become performant, right? Like, you're playing some sort of character, whether it's business character on LinkedIn, or you want to seem like you have a really fun life on Instagram, or, you know, your kid is adorable on Face…”
David Pierce Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 34:28 a16z Podcast | Messaging As the Interface to Everything
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Markoff: Facebook and Google's growth is built on a Faustian bargain
“The Facebook and Google explosion has been based on this kind of Faustian bargain, where, you know, they give me these wonderful services, and what do I give them? Well, I give them behavioral information about my life.”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 39:36 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Janah: Mark Zuckerberg is not a social entrepreneur despite Facebook's social benefit
“While I don't think that makes Mark Zuckerberg and the Facebook co-founders social entrepreneurs, because I don't think they're Our first concern was social justice or improving improving Poverty outcomes, per se, or improving the lives of marginalized people.…”
Laila Janah Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:31 a16z Podcast | Connecting People with Digital Work, the Gig Economy, and More
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Janah: Samasource was the first nonprofit to run longitudinal studies via Facebook
“We were actually the first nonprofit that I know of to do longitudinal studies through Facebook, because our workers log into our platform. Originally, they had to authenticate via Facebook platform.”
Laila Janah Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:20 a16z Podcast | Connecting People with Digital Work, the Gig Economy, and More
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Dixon: Facebook is the new browser, RSS reader, and ad blocker
“In some ways Facebook is the new browser, it's the new RSS reader, and it's the new ad blocker all combined into one, And what's happening in Safari with plugins is a sideshow.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:52 a16z Podcast | Advertising vs. Micropayments in the Age of Ad Blockers
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Benedict Evans: Most mobile internet usage occurs outside web browsers
“The majority of time spent online on a smartphone actually isn't inside the web browser. It's inside Facebook, and it's inside other apps.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:27 a16z Podcast | Advertising vs. Micropayments in the Age of Ad Blockers
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Evans: Publishing via distribution platforms is a deal with the devil
“If you want to get read, you've got to be in some kind of a platform that's giving your audience, and increasingly that means Facebook, or it means Medium, or it means LinkedIn, or it means some other intermediate platform that kind of comes with an implicit a…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:24 a16z Podcast | Advertising vs. Micropayments in the Age of Ad Blockers
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weil: Conservative Enterprise Clients Block Slack, Remote Access, and Facebook
“And these, this big company said they could never put Slack into an organization where it stands now. They're still on Outlook, and they're not able to log in remotely. They also aren't allowed to access websites like Facebook and bring open that tab.”
Elizabeth Weil Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:47 a16z Podcast | How Big Companies Can Get the Most From Silicon Valley
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Levine: Future data centers will mirror hyperscale cloud architectures, not legacy hardware
“A lot of the new data center architectures Are more going to look like Facebook, Google, and Amazon, and less like older, you know, sort of Wall, I call them Wall Street data centers.”
Peter Levine Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:30 a16z Podcast | Dell + EMC -- Why the Python Just Ate the Cow
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Apple, Google, and Facebook won the smartphone and messaging wars
“The sort of, the feeling you have in mobile right now is we're kind of at the end of one wave, and we haven't got another wave coming up yet, so we've kind of had the smartphone wars, and Apple and Google both kind of won, and we've had the messaging wars, and…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:41 a16z Podcast | What Comes After the Smartphone
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Burbidge: Nearly 80% of millennials trust tech giants over banks
“Certainly more than 50, I think it was close to 80% of millennials trust the brands, you know, Facebook or Google. Or Apple, I think was the top of the pile, much more than their banks.”
Eileen Burbage Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:18 a16z Podcast | Fintech from the World's Financial Capital -- London
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Burbidge: Fintech startups will sell to big tech, not banks
“Your exit opportunities aside from staying independent and maybe going public or whatever is potentially on the buyout side. You may not be selling to a bank, you might be selling to Facebook, you might be selling to Amazon, you might be selling to Google as t…”
Eileen Burbage Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:37 a16z Podcast | Fintech from the World's Financial Capital -- London
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khan: UK Lacks Multi-Billion Exits Needed for Capital Recycling
“We haven't had those major hit after hit of multi-billion dollar exits, whether in the private market or in the public markets, such as the Googles or the Facebook. So that trickle-down effect hasn't happened, and it'll be a while till it happens.”
Shaq (Shakil Khan) Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:37 a16z Podcast | Scaling Ideas and Startups in the U.K. and Europe
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hariharan: U.S. tech giants dominate India without local equivalents like Alibaba
“You don't have an Alibaba yet in India. You don't have the buy, the Google of India is Google. The Facebook of India is Facebook.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 35:00 a16z Podcast | The Tiger and the Dragon -- On Tech and Startups in India and China
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple, Google, and Facebook Won Initial Mobile and Messaging Wars
“The smartphone wars are now over, or at least the first smartphone war is over, and Apple and Google both won in different ways, and the kind of the first messaging app wars are now mostly over, and Facebook mostly won in sort of various ways”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:33 a16z Podcast | The Year Mobile Began to Truly Dominate Tech
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Jordan: Facebook's growth stalled four times prior to going public
“Facebook's growth stopped like four times before it became a public company.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:44 a16z Podcast | Hall of Fame Football Meets Venture Capital
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Chan: Chinese Tech Companies Are Distinct Products, Not Clones
“You will see companies that look like the Facebook of China, look like the Google of China, look like the YouTube of China, but they're different. And that's why it's not just Chinese Twitter.”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 31:12 a16z Podcast | 'In the Eye of a Tornado': Views on Innovation from China
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Ross: Facebook succeeded as much from behavioral psychology as computer science
“Facebook is, has been as successful as it is, as much because Mark and the people who he brought into Facebook understood behavioral psychology. As much as they did computer science.”
Alec Ross Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 31:40 a16z Podcast | Open vs. Closed, Alpha Cities, and the Industries of the Future
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Instagram intentionally targeted photographers and designers at launch, says Bailey Richardson
“From my perspective of at least how we grew Instagram, we started out with this core audience of people that were photographers and designers, and that's actually who we went and spoke to when we released the app, and who we promoted right away, because we fel…”
Bailey Richardson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:04 a16z Podcast | I Reject the Term Viral Video
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Neistat outlines the rigid content expectations across major social media platforms
“If it's on Snapchat, it needs to be funny or cool or make me look cool. If it's on Instagram, it's gotta be beautiful. If it's on YouTube, it's gotta be meaningful. If it's on Facebook, it has to be something that my friends and peers really want to engage wit…”
Casey Neistat Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:29 a16z Podcast | I Reject the Term Viral Video
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Andreessen: Tech leaders fix crises with new breakthrough products, not corporate turnarounds
“So Jeff Bezos never does a turnaround at Amazon. Mark Zuckerberg never does a turnaround at Facebook. If the company gets in trouble, the answer is, what's the next big new breakthrough product?”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:09 a16z Podcast | Investing in (Business and Career) Change
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Evans: Messaging platforms are push channels, unlike the pull-based web
“Facebook, those are push channels, whereas the web is a pull channel.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:04 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Messina: Facebook beat Apple Pay to web checkout integration
“And they beat Apple pay to the web, which I think is, is hugely important for the developing world and for people who live in environments that are not at all like ours.”
Chris Messina Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:39 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: Linking Facebook to personal identity is a Western assumption
“So the idea that this is about identity is kind of a Western assumption, that actually those people in Burma are using Facebook like Twitter, with no connection to their identity at all.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:47 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Evans: Building on Facebook risks sudden 75% traffic loss
“The challenge is that you have that nice, easy, frictionless experience and you're on Facebook and then you wake up one morning and your traffic's down by three quarters.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 43:20 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Evans: Direct traffic accounts for only one-quarter of BuzzFeed content views
“There's a great chart from BuzzFeed, information from BuzzFeed on where people watch content on BuzzFeed. And, you know, it's one quarter is direct, and then it's YouTube and Facebook video and Facebook images and Snapchat.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:27 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Opinion
Messina: Facebook remains a strong long-term platform as markets mature
“I think with a maturing market that starts to understand the power and utility of internet access and internet identity, Facebook is actually a pretty good platform to build on for the longterm.”
Chris Messina Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:54 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Evans: Mark Zuckerberg excels at adapting Facebook to user behavior trends
“What Zuckerberg is extremely good at is surfing user behavior. And that if anything is unbalancing the surfboard, he pushes them off.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 34:05 a16z Podcast | Bots and Beyond
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Khanna: Average Facebook user's international friends rose to 15-16%
“If you look at the number of, for example, international friends that people have on Facebook, it used to be only, you know, four or five percent of an average person's friends were from another country, and now it's risen to like 15 or 16%.”
Parag Khanna Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:22 a16z Podcast | Connectivity and the Internet as Supply Chain
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Klein: Vox reached 99 million Facebook video views in February 2016
“We had ninety-nine million Facebook video plays in, what was it, February.”
Ezra Klein Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 37:15 a16z Podcast | On Productivity, Immigration, Trump, and Media
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Held up
Evans: Apple and Facebook will build full-stack VR while Google commoditizes hardware
“You'll have Apple and Facebook trying to do the full stack, and you'll have Google saying, well, we're going to provide the hard bit, and everything else will be a commodity around it.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:30 a16z Podcast | Innovation vs. Invention at Google I/O
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Russell: Apple's iOS app platformization mirrors Facebook and Google developer strategies
“Frankly, it sounded a lot like what Facebook and Google have been showing off taking apps that people use every day and introducing ways for developers to kind of become part of that experience.”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:35 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Widgetification of Everything
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hariharan: Connecting 10 friends in 14 days drove early Facebook retention
“If someone was connected to 10 friends in 14 days, they were much likely to return to Facebook.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:28 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Hariharan: Facebook's DAU/MAU ratio rose to 57% in its first 18 months
“The one metric that he really focused on in the first two years was Retention, and the way he measured retention was daily actives by monthly actives, and if you see their chart in the first 18 months, it kept going from 52% to 55% to 57%.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:06 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Contradicted
Jordan: Zuckerberg pre-populated Facebook by hacking Harvard house directories
“He hacked the directories in each of the houses, and so he pre-populated everyone on the Harvard campus into Facebook and then let people claim their identities, but you could then friend, it was populated when the first person showed up.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:50 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Jordan: 53% of all historic Facebook sign-ups were active daily in 2006
“53% of everyone who had ever signed up for the service was active the day before, and that, by the way, has only grown as, you know, the, their installed base age, it gets bigger in ages, that number's grown”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:08 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Jordan: Premier networks like Facebook and WhatsApp skip paid user acquisition
“A lot of the best networks that are platformed here aren't spending anything on, on acquisition. I mean, it's just, it's kind of an interesting thing in marketplace. Facebook, no. WhatsApp, no. Medium, no. You know, just OpenTable, no. Just, you know, just, th…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 31:13 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Contradicted
Hariharan: Facebook penetrated 80% of US colleges in 18 months
“They did penetrate almost 80% of the colleges in 18 months.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:55 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Hariharan: Facebook spent zero dollars on user acquisition in its early years
“For the longest time, even to this day, they hardly spend money on acquiring users, right? And especially in the initial years, they spent zero dollars.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:47 a16z Podcast | Getting Network Effects
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Benenson: Facebook Reactions Generate Highly Effective Sentiment Training Data
“What's really interesting about Facebook reactions is, you know, you think you're saying, I love this thing, or I'm sad about this, or I'm angry about this, but what you're actually doing in conjunction with that Is giving Facebook really great label data for …”
Fred Benenson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 47:19 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019
Disclosure
Currier's Pre-Facebook Social Network Reached 30 Million Users
“We had thirty million people before Facebook ever launched.”
James Currier Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:53 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Currier: Messaging Network Effects Will Outlast Social Networks Like Facebook
“Facebook may be around in 10 years, but it might not be, but it's pretty clear that messaging will be around because we're always going to be able to scan text with our eyes. That's a good interface for us. And so messaging is probably a longer term thing for …”
James Currier Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:29 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Three College Social Networks Existed Before Facebook Launched at Harvard
“Look, there was three college social networks that came before Facebook, but it was the first one started at Harvard.”
James Currier Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:12 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Network Effects Originated in Hardware Before Evolving to Software
“Network effects began with hardware. It was first the telephone, then the Ethernet, and in today's world, we talk about it in the context of software companies like Facebook, right?”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:34 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Unicode Voting Power Concentrated Among US Tech Giants, SAP, and Oman
“No, so of those 12, so of those 12, nine are U.S. Multinational tech companies. Oracle, IBM, Google, Yahoo, Adobe, Facebook, Microsoft, and Symantec. Then of the other three full voting members, one is the German software company SAP, another is the Chinese te…”
Jenny Lee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:13 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
What-if
Currier: Path Would Be a Major Company Without Mobile Competition
“Had there been no competition like there was for Facebook when they were growing for two years in colleges, path would have been a big company.”
James Currier Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:11 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Insight
Cockcroft: Open source from Big Tech makes proprietary software startups harder
“So what you're seeing now is Twitter and Facebook and Netflix and Google and LinkedIn producing the stuff you actually want to use, which has already been tested at volume. And then it's actually much harder to build a proprietary software company because you'…”
Adrian Cockcroft Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:23 a16z Podcast | All About Microservices
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: If Daydream succeeds, Oculus risks becoming a subscale Android fork
“And so if there's a hundred Daydream devices, then the Facebook product, you could argue, ends up looking a bit like Kindle Fire. It's sort of subscale, squeezed out fork, and no one bothers developing for it.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:19 a16z Podcast | Truce for Mobile, Battle for VR
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Horowitz: Mainstream media attacks tech because it lost gatekeeping power
“Facebook is getting attacked, you know, the internet's getting attacked by the mainstream media. You know, they, they've lost the power, so that's not that surprising, but.”
Ben Horowitz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:14 a16z Podcast | The Internet Is Your Movement
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: 25% of Facebook developers write deep learning code
“If you look at something like FB Learner Flow, which is Facebook's Automation workflow system for artificial intelligence. They've gotten it so good that 25% of their total software developer universe is writing deep learning. 25%, right?”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:22 a16z Podcast | Machine Intelligence, from University to Industry
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schuler: Aside from tech giants, major corporations lack an AI strategy
“Pretty much everyone has missed the boat on an AI strat, like everybody. There's a handful of companies, Google, Microsoft, Facebook that are doing it, but Everybody, I mean, I talk to companies with 15, twenty billion in revenue, they go, we don't have an AI …”
Cameron Schuler Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:38 a16z Podcast | Machine Intelligence, from University to Industry
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Chan: Photo tools benefit from unbundling, social networks require single apps
“It makes sense for a photo editing company to break that up into multiple apps because from a user metric standpoint, I will download four or five of them. But for a company like Facebook, I only want one if it's the same exact network of people.”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:47 a16z Podcast | Culture and/of Design
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Wroblewski: Copying big tech design without internal data is dangerous
“So you just run a dangerous game when you say, oh, Google did this. Facebook did this. Snapchat did this. Because you're not in there. You don't know why they're doing it. You don't have the data. And without that information, you're just kind of guessing that…”
Luke Wroblewski Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:27 a16z Podcast | Culture and/of Design
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Wroblewski: Facebook's early iOS app suffered from using HTML web views
“When their iOS app, they literally had like an HTML web view, JavaScript rendering pseudo browser, making the feed. They hadn't, didn't write it in native code and the thing would crash and it was slow and memory was just a zoo.”
Luke Wroblewski Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:55 a16z Podcast | Culture and/of Design
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Jordan: Early PayPal and Facebook social commerce partnerships failed to gain traction
“PayPal did a few deals in back at the beginning of the decade with the Facebook and, you know, felt like, okay, there you have money there. You have social graph. We have social commerce, right? Well, it just, it hasn't worked that way.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:31 a16z Podcast | Welcome to the New Era of Commerce
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Beshara: True social commerce requires participatory collective purchasing, not just social graphs
“I think it will be much more nuanced, but much more powerful than just, oh, add your social graph to your credit card transaction. It's much more participatory of collectively, socially.”
James Beshara Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:22 a16z Podcast | Welcome to the New Era of Commerce
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Harari: Corporations and governments will soon understand individuals better than themselves
“What we will see with regard to the individual is that at a certain point, external entities, whether it's corporations or whether it's governments, they will have enough data, especially biometric data, and enough computing power to be able to understand me b…”
Yuval Noah Harari Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:18 a16z Podcast | Brains, Bodies, Minds ... and Techno-Religions
Jan 2, 2019
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Harari: Algorithmic authority's major breakthrough will rely on biometric data
“I think the big breakthrough will come with biometric data. So far, most of these algorithms, whether it's Amazon or Netflix or whatever, they work mainly on the basis of data external to my body. They follow me around in space, see where I go, which places I …”
Yuval Noah Harari Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:04 a16z Podcast | Brains, Bodies, Minds ... and Techno-Religions
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Cowen: Social media political activism is mostly ineffective protest theater
“If you compare today to previous historical eras, I think we're going through a kind of protest theater in many ways. People do things on Facebook, Twitter, they think that's effective. I suspect it's not.”
Tyler Cowen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:01 a16z Podcast | Technology, Mobility, and the American Dream
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Wennmachers: Audiences easily detect fake or over-curated social media content
“And then Facebook and Twitter and Snapchat and whatever else there is that they just demand authenticity because it's so easily detectable if it's someone else doing the writing or if these photos are too curated.”
Margit Wennmachers Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:29 a16z Podcast | Build Your Personal Brand
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eghbal: Tech giants have replaced academia in funding major software breakthroughs
“You still need people to think about, like, why are we building it this way, or what does the actual system look like? And that role is actually kind of being filled lately by companies like Google or Facebook that have the resources to make big strides the wa…”
Nadia Eghbal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 28:45 a16z Podcast | The Changing Culture of Open Source
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Russell: Facebook brain-computer interfaces will track emotional reactions over typing speed
“What wouldn't shock me, despite the lofty goals of getting this hundred words per minute, You know, kind of success rate. I have a strong feeling that what we're actually going to see is kind of getting ground truth reactions to, for instance, posts on social …”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:51 a16z Podcast | QR. AR. VR.
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Russell: Facebook trained ML models on celebrity photos to generate avatars
“Facebook made the system that they made a giant data set of celebrity photos plus bitmojis associated with those faces to train a machine learning model that then generalized to Regular people, and so it looks at your profile photo, then makes a kind of cartoo…”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:49 a16z Podcast | QR. AR. VR.
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Chan: Chatbot adoption failed due to missing use cases, not discovery
“My concern is that the issue around bot usage and adoption is not actually the discovery piece. It's that the great use cases for the bots haven't been created yet. And that's more a function of Facebook educating developers or developers coming up with the ri…”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:22 a16z Podcast | QR. AR. VR.
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Held up
Russell: Current BCI tech will allow seamless thought-controlled computer actions
“And now with this current generation, it seems like between Elon, Facebook, probably something from Google that We're actually going to start to see these things that kind of invisibly actually just let you think something and have some kind of action show up …”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:06 a16z Podcast | QR. AR. VR.
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Russell: Facebook was a poor steward of Messenger's early developer platform
“My kind of read on this has been that Facebook hasn't been, let's say, the best steward of Messenger as a platform, for instance, for the first six to nine months of it, other than the kind of Bots that Facebook itself specifically highlighted and linked to in…”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:26 a16z Podcast | QR. AR. VR.
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Russell: Public metrics turn Instagram and Facebook feeds into happiness theater
“So a little bit of a counterpoint or pushback against that is, you know, if you look at Instagram or Facebook, the nature of having metrics publicly exposed to people and comment counts and things like that means that content typically can devolve into somethi…”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:29 a16z Podcast | QR. AR. VR.
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: Facebook operates WhatsApp, Instagram, and Oculus as independent entities
“You know, between WhatsApp and Instagram, Oculus, and so on, that are run as very distinct entities, and they don't overlay some grand strategy about what's going to go where, and who's going to do what, when, and tie all the pieces together.”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:03 a16z Podcast | The Strategies and Tactics of Big
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Evans: Facebook transformed its core product five times by following user behavior
“Facebook has been like five different things over the length of its life. You know, there was a time when it was all about filling in information on your home profile. You know, who goes to a Facebook profile now? Right. And that's in a sense been directed by …”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:07 a16z Podcast | The Strategies and Tactics of Big
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Big four tech platforms expanded headcount 10x in a decade
“Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, as being together about 10 times the size in terms of the number of people that they were 1012 years ago.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:45 a16z Podcast | The Strategies and Tactics of Big
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Horowitz: Facebook outpaces rivals because its engineer onboarding and training is superior
“Facebook has maintained very high product velocity. At like a pretty high scale. And I think to me that the thing that they do better than anybody else is onboarding and training of engineers.”
Ben Horowitz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:25 a16z Podcast | Cash, Growth, and CEO ❤ CFO
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Ehrsam: Ethereum throughput is 20,000x short of running Facebook
“And if you look at what Ethereum is capable of in terms of just throughput of the network, it can't handle more than about twenty-ish transactions a second right now, which means that you're about 20,000 X off being able to run Facebook on the chain.”
Fred Ehrsam Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:32 a16z Podcast | Why Crypto Tokens Matter
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Opinion
Dixon: Facebook data portability is meaningless due to invincible network effects
“Like, it doesn't matter if you can export your data from Facebook. All your friends are on Facebook. It's a network effect. That game is over.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:36 a16z Podcast | Why Crypto Tokens Matter
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stoica: Facebook's early big data cluster had 80 nodes and three people
“When we started working with Facebook, Facebook, you know, has an entire cluster, big cluster for big data. It was 80 nodes. And their big data team was like three people.”
Ion Stoica Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:31 a16z Podcast | A New Lab Rises
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
O'Reilly: Native content shift undermines Google's core strategic advantage
“It seems to me to the extent that Google says, well, we're going to deliver this service directly with native content, with Google native content, versus bringing it from an ecosystem of outside providers, they're losing touch with one of their key strategic a…”
Tim O'Reilly Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:48 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019
What-if
Evans: Face ID from Google or Facebook would have triggered privacy backlash
“If Google or Facebook had announced that, we'd be having a different, completely different conversation.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:07 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Machine learning strengthens tech incumbents rather than shifting market power
“Machine learning is like this new foundational technology that, in a sense, will enable a bunch of new stuff and new companies, but it makes Google better Google, and it makes Facebook stronger, Facebook and Amazon maybe stronger Amazon. It doesn't unlock, it …”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:30 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Tech dominance cycle will eventually turn for Big Tech
“It's not apparent how that cycle would turn for Google or Apple or Facebook or Amazon, but it will turn.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:02 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Founders control all top tech giants except Apple
“And they all, except for Apple, the founders control the company.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:59 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Conde: Facebook recruitment reduced Parkinson's trial acquisition costs by 96%
“A great data point that I heard recently was a partnership that Facebook made with the Michael J. Fox foundation to find ways to pilot the use of social networks to recruit patients for Parkinson's disease trial using social media. They were able to reduce the…”
Jorge Conde Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:00 a16z Podcast | Taking the Pulse on Bio
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Ethereum throughput is limited to roughly 10 transactions per second
“So, Ethereum can, what, handle, like, 10 transactions a second or something, which is just many orders of magnitude lower than... A system like Facebook, right?”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:19 a16z Podcast | Trends in Cryptocurrencies
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Alex Le: Internet culture flows from 4chan to Reddit to Facebook
“Four Chan, which is another weird place on the internet, is like raw dream space, and we are maybe a level up from that where we're refining that content and making it more interesting, and then it goes off and spreads to Facebook.”
Alex Le Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:20 a16z Podcast | Community and Culture, Online
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Temkin: Asynchronous social platforms like Facebook function as performance art
“Facebook and sort of asynchronous social experiences end up being performance art. You're trying to craft a persona to get people to React to you”
Michael Temkin Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:12 a16z Podcast | Community and Culture, Online
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Most Big Tech talent moving into crypto builds on Ethereum
“At least what I'm seeing is lots of teams leaving GAFA companies, Google, Facebook, et cetera, and getting into this, and like really good teams. People with real, you know, strong engineering and product backgrounds. And I think for me, at least, it's the vas…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:06 a16z Podcast | Mental Models for Understanding Crypto Tokens
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2017
Shankar: Post-Oculus acquisition VR forecasts were wildly hyper-inflated
“Back when Facebook bought Oculus, that's when expectations of VR started to get wildly away from reality. Oh, by 2016, there's gonna be 20, fifty million headsets out there. There might be a hundred million headsets by 2017. Some analysts definitely blew a lot…”
Darshan Shankar Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:31 a16z Podcast | When Is VR's iPhone Moment?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Gil: Silicon Valley has very few truly strong product organizations
“There's very few, very strong product organizations in Silicon Valley. Google has a great product org. Facebook has a great product org. There's a handful of them.”
Elad Gil Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:09 a16z Podcast | High Growth in Companies (and Tech)
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Dixon: Org design drives Google and Facebook product success
“Facebook and Google, they obviously are hiring great people, but I think it's also the way they empower those people and design the organization that makes them great product organizations.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:22 a16z Podcast | High Growth in Companies (and Tech)
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Disclosure
Jordan: Past investment mistakes stemmed from short-lived Facebook ad arbitrage
“When I made a couple investment mistakes where the paid acquisition looked really good, and actually what they were doing, or they're arbitraging something like Facebook's early mobile attempts, where the people who participate in Facebook mobile ads early Got…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:58 a16z Podcast | The Basics of Growth 1 -- User Acquisition
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Jordan: Facebook has completely saturated its US user growth
“Facebook Hasn't had any users in the U.S. Forever because they have them all.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:45 a16z Podcast | The Basics of Growth 2 -- Engagement & Retention
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: Facebook historically maintained a 60% DAU/MAU engagement ratio
“Their products have historically been 60% plus daily actives over monthly actives, and that's very high.”
Andrew Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:08 a16z Podcast | The Basics of Growth 2 -- Engagement & Retention
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Zuegel: OAuth is centralized, janky, and limited by tech monopolies
“OAuth as a tool that people can use as you're building a little side project. You don't want to have to build a whole complicated login system. You plug in OAuth. This is a huge step forward, but it is not really sufficient for everything. It's Centralized. It…”
Devon Zuegel Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 28:30 a16z Podcast | Crypto And The Evolution Of Open Source
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Jesse Walden: Open source creates structural asymmetry favoring large tech firms
“Also, also just, like, raw engineering power, like, Facebook has hundreds of engineers to deploy something like MySQL, you know, and then the weekend hacker has to do it themselves, and it's just, like, there's an asymmetry in terms of, like, how you leverage …”
Jesse Walden Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:12 a16z Podcast | Crypto And The Evolution Of Open Source
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Evans: Consumers trust Apple with health data over Google or Facebook
“That kind of piece of strategic positioning has worked out very well for them because you would trust it with this kind of information where you might not trust a product from Google or from Facebook.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:30 a16z Podcast | What's at the Core of the Latest Apple Announcement?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Wilson: Web2 users deserve financial equity for building platform value
“It's just not right, particularly for a lot of these businesses where the user is the product. Right? Facebook users made Facebook. Twitter users made Twitter. You know, YouTube users made YouTube, right? It's just not right that the people who make the produc…”
Fred Wilson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:14 a16z Podcast | Technological Trends, Capital, and Internet 'Disruption'
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Wiener: Simply streaming linear TV sports feeds on Facebook fails
“MLB, their idea of broadcasting baseball games with Facebook was to just put the broadcasting And put it on Facebook. And I don't think that that works. Like the people that are on Facebook, they know that the game is on TV. They're just not turning it on. So …”
Zach Wiener Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:33 a16z Podcast | Eyeballs on the Game
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Dixon: Centralized platforms inevitably capture all value from third-party developers
“You would never build on top of, you know, a centralized protocol, because people have now learned, after 2030 years of this, that when you do that, that the platform changes the rules, and you ask everyone who built on top of, you know, Twitter, all these dev…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:39 a16z Podcast | Building Crypto, from Vision to Reality
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Dixon: Snapchat's growth was severely capped by Facebook cloning its features
“I think it definitely had, I mean, I think it had, like look, look at Snapchat's a great example, right? That was a, I mean, you know they really invented sort of a new media type, right? I mean, that type of, you know, whatever, the vertical short video with …”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 37:17 a16z Podcast | How the Internet Happened
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2038
Andreessen: Winning tech companies in 20 years will be 100x larger than Google
“The winning companies, you know, the winning entrepreneurial companies 20 years from now that win are going to be Staggeringly large. Like, they're going to be like, I don't know, 10 or a hundred times the size of Google and Facebook.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:35 a16z Podcast | Talent, Tech Trends, and Culture -- with Ben, Marc, and Tyler Cowen
Feb 26, 2019
Insight
Jordan: Tech's biggest winners initially look like non-obvious niche ideas
“Most of the huge winners are lightning strikes. Facebook was the second or third social network, but you know, no one was thinking social networks when they talk about a trillion dollar company. EBay was Collectibles online, weird Facebook, hot or not, you kno…”
Jeff Jordan Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 46:24 a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
May 8, 2019 negative
Opinion
Carlson-Wee: Web2 ad business models create adversarial relationships with users
“Today, yes, Facebook loves its users, but also it wants to put as many ads in front of the users as it possibly can, which actually disrupt the user experience. So it's yeah, it's an odd relationship, I think, that these web two platforms have with their user …”
Olaf Carlson-Wee May 8, 2019 ▶ 46:42 Seven Trends in Blockchain Computing (Spring 2019)
May 16, 2019
Assertion Supported
Naous: Major tech companies built proprietary internal operational analytics tools
“So Facebook has Scuba. Google has Dremel, Rasta, and a whole bunch of others. Airbnb built Superset. Uber built Aries DB.”
Jad Naus May 16, 2019 ▶ 9:06 Everyone is an Analyst: Opportunities in Operational Analytics
Jun 14, 2019
Insight
The two cardinal sins of venture capital investing
“There's kind of two big cardinal sins in this business. One is you miss one of those companies. You don't invest in them. The other is that you invest in it, but you don't own enough of it so that when it gets to be Facebook, it still doesn't meaningfully chan…”
Scott Kupor Jun 14, 2019 ▶ 25:58 How to Raise Money from a Venture Investor
Jun 24, 2019 positive
Disclosure
Mónica: Anchorage worked with Facebook on Libra for 1.5 years pre-launch
“We've been involved in the initiative even before it was called Libra. So, we've been Talking to Facebook about it for about a year and a half now.”
Diogo Mónica Jun 24, 2019 ▶ 19:18 Founding Stories: Anchorage
Aug 29, 2019 bearish
Prediction Held up
Dixon: VCs will not fund third-party tools for closed platforms
“You will not see any VC. We have not funded. No one will fund an anti-spam solution for Twitter or Facebook.”
Chris Dixon Aug 29, 2019 ▶ 6:05 Social Networking in 2030: How Could Crypto Change Things?
Sep 2, 2020
Insight
Sivak: Video Games Compete Directly With Netflix, Facebook, and TikTok
“You're competing with everyone. You know, you're competing with Netflix, you're competing with you know, with Facebook and TikTok.”
Seth Sivak Sep 2, 2020 ▶ 2:21 From Unknown Title to Viral Game: 12 Growth Lessons From Spellbreak
Jul 27, 2022 positive
Insight
Hirsch: Healthcare platforms must optimize for outcomes, not time spent
“Remember I came from the world of social. Like I was at Facebook and Yahoo where time spent was like the God metric. It was like, oh my God, we just care about as many eyeballs and as much time as we can. And it could actually, it's less about time spent. It's…”
Doug Hirsch Jul 27, 2022 ▶ 25:52 Two-Sided Networks in Healthcare - a Founder's Playbook
Nov 9, 2022
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Karen X Cheng Predicts AI Platform Consolidation via Startup Acquisitions
“Most companies will have different strengths, and then they'll continue to be able to differentiate by sort of specializing in that, but I do imagine that some of these companies are gonna buy other companies, and then so they'll like, you know, kind of have m…”
Karen X Cheng Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 21:34 AI and the Creator Economy with Karen X Cheng
Nov 9, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Karen X Cheng: Video Virality Shifted From Tech Press to Algorithms
“So back in, like, 2000, like, 12, up until around 2016, you could make videos go viral just by coming up with something clever that would be a good headline, cold emailing, like, 300 reporters, getting them to write about it, and then it would almost guarantee…”
Karen X Cheng Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 7:21 AI and the Creator Economy with Karen X Cheng
Nov 16, 2022 positive
Opinion
Balaji: Facebook is the big tech outlier because Zuckerberg remains founder
“Facebook is the outlier because Zuck is still a founder, and so it can actually do big things like rebranding to Meta. It can take risks, okay?”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 2:33:31 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
Jan 12, 2023 negative
Insight
Feifer: Facebook, not the digital camera, ultimately killed Kodak
“What killed Kodak wasn't the digital camera. It was Facebook.”
Jason Feifer Jan 12, 2023 ▶ 1:00:25 Building for Tomorrow with Jason Feifer
Mar 23, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chan: Incumbent social platforms will expand into e-commerce to drive ad revenue
“I think a lot of these large Platforms are all going to figure out they want to dabble into commerce, and there's so many benefits if they do that. It actually drives their advertising engines, because now that you have a commerce layer, the supply generally i…”
Connie Chan Mar 23, 2023 ▶ 31:23 The Marketplace 100: A Glimpse Into the Future of Commerce
Apr 12, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Early Facebook Marketplace tracked user frequency instead of transactions to measure success
“One of the things we did for Facebook marketplace was we, at first, our first metric wasn't transactions because we couldn't measure them. It was how often people were coming. It was weekly to monthly actives because as a classifieds marketplace, you know, you…”
Deb Liu Apr 12, 2023 ▶ 15:44 Marketplace Tactics: Metrics, Growth vs. Focus, Business Strategy | Field Notes by Connie Chan
May 25, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Ismail: Tech winners like Apple and Google succeeded by becoming platforms
“Yahoo, BlackBerry, Nokia all failed to become platforms, right? Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon all successfully became platforms, and that business model basically carries you through because now you wire yourself into the infrastructure.”
Salim Ismail May 25, 2023 ▶ 12:56 The Rise of the Exponential Organization with Peter Diamandis and Salim Ismail
Jul 7, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Meta Internal Studies Show In-Office Employees Outperform Native Remote Hires
“Some studies are sort of coming out meta is sort of saying like they've noticed that people are back at the office three days a week are more effective, or if they've already been in the office for a while before they went out on remote versus native remote”
Rob Frawein Jul 7, 2023 ▶ 11:23 Polarizing Talent: Navigating 2023's Landscape
Jul 21, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim: Meta's AI creative tools will restore the efficacy of paid ads
“Facebook or Meta is investing heavily on You know, AI side of it, so that all, sometimes all you need to do is just say, hey, like I have this idea, here's like the base creative. And now they're able to like change what, how it looks, add different, you know,…”
Bryan Kim Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 10:31 Growth vs Efficiency: Can You Have Both?
Sep 25, 2023 neutral
Insight
Ghodsi: Hype around the largest LLMs mirrors 2000s focus on Cisco
“So I think it's a little bit like right now like that. Who has the largest LLM? Obviously whoever can build the largest one that can train it the most obviously will own all of AI and all the future of humanity. But just like the internet, someone will show up…”
Ali Ghodsi Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 12:40 AI Food Fights in the Enterprise with Databricks' Ali Ghodsi
Sep 25, 2023 positive
What-if
Ghodsi: AI progress would be far behind without Meta releasing Llama
“If the original Llama was never released, What would the state of the world and our view of AI be right now? We would be way further behind, right? And A, it was a big model you know, by what existed in open source and it was open sourced. And both of those th…”
Ali Ghodsi Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 14:20 AI Food Fights in the Enterprise with Databricks' Ali Ghodsi
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott: Meta's Llama 2 will be a key building block for AI software
“I think Lama too is just like Lama going to be an important building block that people are going to want to use to build AI software.”
Kevin Scott Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 5:28 AI Copilots and the Future of Knowledge Work with Microsoft's Kevin Scott
Dec 28, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Mensch: Meta's LLaMA paper was first to publicly demonstrate overtraining benefits
“The Lama paper was the first to establish it in the open and it opened a lot of opportunities.”
Arthur Mensch Dec 28, 2023 ▶ 7:45 Safety in Numbers: Keeping AI Open
Jan 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Horowitz: Tech companies no longer restrict engineering hiring to elite universities
“I think Facebook, you're on the board of Meta. They used to only hire people from Stanford and MIT, or I think, or Harvard, Stanford, MIT. Like they had like strict rules on them. Nobody has that role anymore. Like that role's gone. Like, I don't know any comp…”
Ben Horowitz Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 33:35 Crisis in Higher Ed & Why Universities Still Matter
Feb 28, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dixon: VCs stopped funding social platform apps in 2013 due to risk
“I would say around 2013, 12, 13, probably people like us, all the VCs stopped because of platform risk, right?”
Chris Dixon Feb 28, 2024 ▶ 25:57 Future of Crypto, Blockchain & Web3 w/ Chris Dixon
Mar 5, 2024
Assertion Supported
Hicks: DoD R&D budget exceeds Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft combined
“It's more than what Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft combined spent on R&D last year.”
Kathleen Hicks Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 4:16 Collaborative Disruption at DoD
Mar 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
D'Angelo: Frontier AI model providers will maintain strong profit margins
“And so it's, you know, right now it's OpenAI, Google, maybe Anthropic. Maybe, maybe Meta can be there. Those who can get there, I think it's going to be good business. You'll be able to make a lot of money. You can have good profit margins. You'll have to work…”
Adam D'Angelo Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 22:25 Bringing AI to the Masses with Adam D'Angelo, CEO of Quora
Apr 2, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Meta open-sources AI to prevent monopolies, mirroring Google's Android strategy
“The way Meta is thinking about this and the way that they're actually behaving and executing is very similar to how Google thought about Android where, you know, their main concern was that Apple not have a monopoly on the smartphone. You know, not so much tha…”
Ben Horowitz Apr 2, 2024 ▶ 52:18 Politics & the Future of Tech
May 2, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Early Facebook growth success hinged on low team turnover
“One of the keys to Facebook at the time's growth team was that they had the exact, not just that they had a growth team, but they had the exact same people on it for years and years and years. The reason was the work they were doing was fairly alchemistic in n…”
Ben Horowitz May 2, 2024 ▶ 3:21 Startup Building: Challenges & Opportunities
May 2, 2024 positive
Opinion
Horowitz: Meta's early onboarding drove long-term high product output
“Zuck did an amazing job in the early days for sure at Meta on that where, you know, their onboarding program was so good that they were able to just Keep turning out, you know, massive numbers of very high quality products for a really long time.”
Ben Horowitz May 2, 2024 ▶ 35:37 Startup Building: Challenges & Opportunities
May 16, 2024 negative
Insight
Horowitz: General management is fake and does not transfer across industries
“General management, the way you describe it, is fake, and I don't think that In my view, like, if you can manage a soup company, you cannot manage, you know, meta.”
Ben Horowitz May 16, 2024 ▶ 17:16 AI, Robotics & the Future of Manufacturing
May 16, 2024
Disclosure
Horowitz: Nearly all a16z hardware investments required follow-on rescue funding
“I don't think that we've done anything in hardware where that hasn't been the case. I mean, the one was Oculus, but Oculus got, you know, they sold relatively early to meta.”
Ben Horowitz May 16, 2024 ▶ 48:39 AI, Robotics & the Future of Manufacturing
Jun 11, 2024 negative
Opinion
Olivia Moore: One-shot AI generation tools are gimmicky and unfit for deep work
“In some ways, it's a little bit of a, and I say this lovingly, like, gimmicky product, because you might use it as like a fun thing to send to a friend or to post on Twitter or something, but you're not likely to do deep work in it.”
Olivia Moore Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 4:55 The Future of Prosumer: The Rise of “AI Native” Workflows
Jun 19, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Meta spends roughly $20 billion annually on VR
“Facebook's now in a position where Facebook's, you know, spending, you know, on the order of twenty billion dollars a year on VR, right?”
Marc Andreessen Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 44:50 Marc Andreessen & Andrew Chen Talk Creative Computers
Jun 19, 2024 negative
Insight
Andreessen: Media narratives about tech jump directly from useless to evil
“And then basically within like five years, it was like Facebook is like the living demon incarnate on earth and destroying everything. Right? It went from like useless to evil in one step. Right? You know, the headline never gets never just like, oh, this is k…”
Marc Andreessen Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 21:11 Marc Andreessen & Andrew Chen Talk Creative Computers
Jun 19, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Andreessen: Journalist advised Zuckerberg to accept $1B Yahoo acquisition offer
“Facebook got just tons of, you know, it's just like this is the most trivial, stupid, useless, you know, thing that doesn't matter, you know, Facebook, there was almost a deal for Facebook to get bought by Yahoo early on, and I remember a certain very prominen…”
Marc Andreessen Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 20:35 Marc Andreessen & Andrew Chen Talk Creative Computers
Jun 19, 2024 negative
Opinion
Andreessen: Boomers are most vulnerable to social media manipulation
“The person most prone to be really screwed around with social media would seem to me to be somebody with no mimetic defenses at all, which is like a boomer, right? And so, you take, like, somebody raised on, like, Walter Cronkite, and you, like, inject them on…”
Marc Andreessen Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 10:27 Marc Andreessen & Andrew Chen Talk Creative Computers
Jun 20, 2024 negative
Opinion
Khalaf: Merchants complaining about card interchange fees ignore massive ad tech costs
“So regarding the payment rails, I agree with Zach. It's a yes, but the but is bigger than the yes, because if you look at, ah, all the folks that are honestly complaining about the interchange. Okay, let's talk about it. These are the same people who are payin…”
Simon Khalaf Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 16:53 Zach Perret (Plaid) & Simon Khalaf (Marqeta): New Applications in Fintech
Jun 20, 2024 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Khalaf: Payment cards have wider reach than Google, Facebook, and clean water
“Because if you think about a payment card, it's the most adopted technological product ever invented. More distribution than Google and Facebook combined. More distribution than clean water. And it's still a piece of plastic for many.”
Simon Khalaf Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 3:55 Zach Perret (Plaid) & Simon Khalaf (Marqeta): New Applications in Fintech
Jul 23, 2024
Disclosure
Casey regrets not trimming Meta at $380 before it fell to $90
“The twenty-twenty-two period was rough and, you know, I kinda, my big mistake in twenty-twenty-two was not trimming a lot of stocks at the end of twenty-twenty-one. You know, I looked at Netflix at 6:30 then, and Amazon at one 80, and Facebook at three 80, Fac…”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 2:17 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Sep 24, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Big Tech will easily recoup AI capex through core product improvements
“If, yeah, Facebook, Google, they make their advertising systems a little bit better. They can recoup billions of dollars just by the... Better performance there. Apple can easily recoup the investments if it drives an upgrade cycle. I mean, these are things th…”
Alexandr Wang Sep 24, 2024 ▶ 12:56 Why Human Data is Key to AI: Alexandr Wang from Scale AI
Sep 24, 2024 negative
Insight
Wang: Meta's open-source strategy caps value capture at the model layer
“If meta continues open sourcing, that puts a pretty strong cap as to the value that you can get from the model layer.”
Alexandr Wang Sep 24, 2024 ▶ 15:00 Why Human Data is Key to AI: Alexandr Wang from Scale AI
Oct 1, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: Fewer than ten organizations worldwide can train Llama-scale AI models
“Yeah, I mean, I would, it would probably be in the number of ones on my hand and it probably wouldn't use all my fingers, you know. Yeah, I mean, you basically have, OpenA, Anthropic, Meta, X, Google, and then you have a few Mistral, and then Deep Seek and a c…”
Jeff Schmidt Oct 1, 2024 ▶ 25:00 The Quest for Community-Trained Open Source AI Models
Dec 9, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Meta AI services have reached 500 million monthly active users
“Meta's not far behind. They have five hundred million monthly active users.”
Alex Immerman Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 11:45 The 2025 AI Search Race
Dec 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Immerman: Apple could gain 1 billion search users overnight
“They are not investing the capex like Meta and Google and Microsoft and Amazon, but they control a central node to the consumer, and if they wanted to build a search application, the next day they could have a billion users.”
Alex Immerman Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 11:58 The 2025 AI Search Race
Feb 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casado: Meta currently spends more on VR than AI
“I would bet, I don't know this as a fact, I'll bet Meta's spending more money on VR than it is on AI right now.”
Martin Casado Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 21:14 What DeepSeek Means For The Future Of AI | Tech Veterans Weigh In
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Bosworth says AI and spatial computing represent a Xerox PARC-level shift
“This is Xerox PARC level new stuff where we're rethinking how humans are going to interact with computers. It's like JCR Licklider and the human in the loop computing. We're seeing that with AI.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 33:31 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bosworth says AI models will become commodities, making open source smart strategy
“I believe these are going to be commodities and you want to commoditize your compliments.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 26:29 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Bosworth: Facebook failed early in mobile by non-natively porting web code
“A lot of people failed early in mobile, including us by just taking our web stuff and putting on the mobile phone and being like, oh, like, the mobile phone, it's just like, we'll just put the web there. But because it wasn't native to what the phone was, and …”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 13:33 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bosworth: AR glasses will achieve widespread adoption within ten years
“I do think it's going to be a long, that's why I said like the ten-year view for me is, I think, much clearer. I think these things are going to be available, widely accepted increasingly adopted.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 12:03 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Insight
Bosworth: Meta's Orion prototype proves post-smartphone computing is achievable
“That's why I said like the, Orion was the first thought time I thought Me. Like, the first, Orion, like, putting that in my head, I was like, okay, like, it could happen. Like, there does exist, like, a life for us as a species past the phone.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 12:24 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Bosworth says Ray-Ban Meta Live AI feature drains battery in 30 minutes
“So you can start a live AI session with your Ray-Ban meted glasses. And for 30 minutes until the battery runs out, It is, it's seeing what you're seeing.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 9:15 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025
Disclosure
Bosworth says Meta concluded the mobile phone form factor saturated in 2015
“10 years ago, like, the mobile phone form factor, as amazing as it was, this is 2015, was like, already saturated. Like, that was what it was gonna be.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 5:12 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bosworth says Meta pivoted Ray-Ban glasses to AI six months before production
“So when we started those, that project, the Ray-Ban Meta project, they were going to be smart glasses. And in fact, they were entirely built, and we were six months away from production when Lama three hit.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 8:46 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Insight
Bosworth: AI as Primary Interface Can Solve Wearable Ecosystem Risks
“I actually think the ecosystem risk was one I would have said previously was the biggest one, but AI is now kind of my potential silver bullet there. If AI becomes the major interface, then it kind of comes for free.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 31:30 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025
Insight
Bosworth says augmented reality won't happen automatically without massive capital and effort
“There's a lot of people in tech who are like, yeah, AR will eventually happen. That's not how it fucking works, man. You have to stop And put the money and the time and do it. Like somebody has to stop and do it.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 33:08 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 24, 2025
Opinion
Bosworth: Consumer Adoption Risk Exceeds Hardware Invention Risk for Wearables
“Far bigger than the invention risk I think is the adoption risk.”
Andrew Bosworth Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 28:57 What Comes After Mobile? Meta’s Andrew Bosworth on AI and Consumer Tech
Apr 29, 2025 positive
Opinion
Horowitz: a16z top partners outperform executive teams at Meta, Google, and Apple
“If you look at the top people, you know, if you look at Martine Cassato and Chris Dixon and Alex Rampell and David Ulovich and so forth, like that team is better, like IQ wise capability wise than the executive teams of Meta or Google or Apple or any of them.”
Ben Horowitz Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 41:38 How Andreessen Horowitz Disrupted VC & What’s Coming Next
May 31, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
George: Consumer AI reached one billion users faster than any predecessor
“We've now gotten to the point where there's about a billion monthly active users of consumer AI applications, and this has grown significantly faster than predecessor companies, Google, Facebook, TikTok, and in the case of TikTok, they actually grew through, t…”
David George May 31, 2025 ▶ 28:11 Where Crypto Meets AI with Chris Dixon & David George
Jun 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Facebook's early revenue came from Bing remnant banner ads
“They had ad revenue early on, but early on it was like remnant ad revenue. They didn't have targeted ads yet, so it was literally, the early ad revenue of Facebook literally was selling remnant banner ads from the Bing ad network and so it was like these super…”
Marc Andreessen Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 3:33 Marc Andreessen Reveals His Biggest Wins and Mistakes at a16z
Jun 2, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
Marc Andreessen: Russian Facebook ad spend during 2016 election was only $80,000
“I think the result of it was, I think it was a result of 80,000 dollars of ad spend by the Russians in, in the relevant period of the election. It was like a total of like a 140,000, but during the actual run of the election, it was 80,000 dollars, and so the …”
Marc Andreessen Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 7:56 Marc Andreessen Reveals His Biggest Wins and Mistakes at a16z
Jun 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Yahoo price cut gave Zuckerberg cover to reject $1B offer
“Yahoo came back and essentially renegotiated the deal, tried to lower the price. And that gave Mark basically the, you know, I don't know, cover, kind of wherewithal to be able to walk away from the deal.”
Marc Andreessen Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 4:41 Marc Andreessen Reveals His Biggest Wins and Mistakes at a16z
Jul 9, 2025
Disclosure
Simpson: Facebook rejected internal crypto initiatives when she worked there
“I tried at Facebook, by the way, same thing.”
Arianna Simpson Jul 9, 2025 ▶ 16:23 Crypto Experts Explain Stablecoins & the Future Financial System w/ Ali Yahya & Arianna Simpson
Jul 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Ulevitch: Meta contracted nearly all power from Constellation's reactivated nuclear reactor
“I mean, I think that Constellation just turned up a new nuclear reactor, or is reactivating a reactor, and I think Meta immediately sucked up all of the power that they're going to generate, or nine 10th of it, or something from the new Constellation reactor t…”
David Ulevitch Jul 16, 2025 ▶ 20:24 America's Energy Problem: We Need A New Grid
Jul 25, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Horowitz: Facebook internal probe found virtually no evidence of Russian hacking
“You know, what they found in terms of the quote-unquote Russian hacking was just about effectively nothing. Like, there was nothing. And so, but the dominant media narrative Was that Facebook had been hacked by the Russians, and I think like probably half the …”
Ben Horowitz Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 23:57 Marc & Ben on the Collapse of Traditional Media - Podcasts, Politics & the New Media Playbook
Jul 30, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
García Martínez: Facebook is running out of new human users
“And I can see that the ad tech industry is completely rapacious towards the end of chaos monkeys, or I think in the like afterward that I wrote in the second edition or whatever it was, I mentioned that like Facebook is running out of people, right?”
Antonio García Martínez Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 39:38 AI Content and the War for Your Attention
Aug 1, 2025 positive
Opinion
Balaji Srinivasan: Musk's Twitter acquisition liberated Meta and YouTube from censorship
“X-Day was also the liberation of Meta and liberation of YouTube, right? All the countries that these racial fanatics at the NYT had occupied, right? All the networks they had occupied. That was like, you know how, like, the Nazi empire was at, like, its peak, …”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 34:45 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
Aug 1, 2025
Assertion Supported
Balaji Srinivasan: US newspaper revenue collapsed post-2008 as tech advertising spiked
“This shows that essentially newspaper revenue rose to like, seventy billion dollars in the year 2000. And then right after the financial crisis, it just suddenly collapsed over the course of like four or five years and Google went vertical and Facebook went ve…”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:19 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
Aug 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dwarkesh: Meta paying $100M for top AI researchers is ROI positive
“If you pay an employee a hundred million dollars and they're a great AI researcher and they make your compute your training or your inference one percent more efficient. Zuck is spending on the order of like eighty billion dollars a year on on compute. That's …”
Dwarkesh Patel Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:08:56 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Aug 8, 2025 neutral
Insight
Srinivasan: Tech platforms replaced government agencies as functional industry regulators
“The actual regulator of taxis is Uber or Lyft because they have real-time tracking. They have star ratings on both sides. Or your you know, some, you know, the FCC or something like who issued licenses. Well, the actual regulator of speech or what have you sai…”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 15:09 Steven Sinofsky & Balaji Srinivasan on the Future of M&A, AI & Tech
Aug 18, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Digital ad platforms consume one-third of top-tier AI chips
“One third of it is like ads, right? Whether it be ByteDance or Meta or many of the other people who are doing ads.”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 15:00 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
Aug 18, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Patel: Microsoft's custom AI silicon lags behind Amazon, Google, and Meta
“Microsoft, their custom silicon kind of sucks but the other three, they're really upping their orders massively over the last year. You know, Amazon is making millions of Tranium. Google's making millions of TPUs. TPUs clearly are like a hundred percent utiliz…”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 21:29 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
Aug 22, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Casado: a16z avoids lesser-known SOTA AI model startups due to heavy subsidies
“So the state-of-the-art model market, this is like the, you know, the Anthropics and the Open AIs it's incredibly competitive, and it's very heavily subsidized, right? I mean, like with Meta and like Google, et cetera, and so kind of our view is, is you have t…”
Martin Casado Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 20:56 The State of AI: Growth, Fragmentation, and the Next Wave
Aug 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Media praised Facebook under Obama, called it dangerous under Trump
“The funny thing was like, if you go back to 2008, All the stories on how Obama got elected were Facebook. Like, he mastered Facebook. He got elected on Facebook. Facebook's the greatest thing. It's making the world more democratic. Arab Spring. Wow, this is so…”
Ben Horowitz Aug 23, 2025 ▶ 37:36 Ben Horowitz Shares the a16z Origin Story & Plans for the Future
Sep 17, 2025 negative
Opinion
Rampell: Google and Facebook captured most value from DTC boom
“Well, I mean, ultimately, if it's a one and done transaction, you don't really make the product like, you know, Casper didn't make the mattress, right? Like there's probably some OEM in China that made the mattress and they put their little logo and they calle…”
Alex Rampell Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 12:55 The Death of Search: How Shopping Will Work In The Age of AI
Oct 16, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Rabois: Social graphs are no longer defensible moats for platforms
“Well, I don't think the graph is defensible. I think there are other assets that are. I think the graph has kind of been weakened by, like TikTok has kind of shown that on social products, The graph may, certainly isn't, is not indispensable to success. It may…”
Keith Rabois Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 29:06 Keith Rabois: Israel, OpenAI, Opendoor, and DOGE
Oct 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Rose: Digg Had More Web Traffic Than Facebook in Mid-2000s
“At that time we were larger than Facebook. And so traffic wise”
Kevin Rose Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 32:41 Why Creativity Will Matter More Than Code | Kevin Rose and Anish Acharya
Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Larry Page said he would risk bankruptcy to win AI race
“Larry Page apparently internally said, I'm happy to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. And I think that is the mentality for sure at Google and perhaps Meta. It's just seen as existential and you have to win.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 7:04 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Nov 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg: Meta protein researchers led by Alex Rives join CZI
“We actually had a bunch of researchers who'd formerly worked at Meta on protein folding models is joining a biohub and Alex Reeves, the leader of it is actually going to be the kind of head of the whole science program”
Mark Zuckerberg Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 19:53 Mark Zuckerberg & Priscilla Chan: How AI Will Cure All Disease
Nov 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adam D'Angelo: Feed recommendation algorithms are already superhuman at predicting interest
“Recommender systems, the system that ranks your Facebook or Instagram or Quora feed, those recommender systems are already superhuman at predicting what you're gonna be interested in, in reading.”
Adam D'Angelo Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 22:43 Amjad Masad & Adam D’Angelo: How Far Are We From AGI?
Nov 21, 2025 negative
Insight
Rampell: Fintech startup capital is mostly wasted on Google and Meta ads
“I like to say, especially in financial services, with that high bar to having a relationship you should probably just buy Google stock or Facebook stock versus investing in most companies because, like, that's where all the money goes. It's like you, like, you…”
Alex Rampell Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 3:19 Robinhood CEO: Making Everyone An Owner
Dec 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Rampell: Meta earns more quarterly profit today than 2010 annual revenue
“They have more profit every quarter today than they had revenue per year in 2010.”
Alex Rampell Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 30:35 Why AI Moats Still Matter (And How They've Changed)
Dec 12, 2025 negative
Opinion
Evans: Zuckerberg's plan to resell excess AI capacity is flawed
“I saw a slightly strange quote from Mark Zuckerberg saying, well, if it turns out that we've over invested, we can just resell the capacity. And I thought, let me just like stop you there, Mark, because if it turns out that you can't use your capacity, everybo…”
Benedict Evans Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 17:23 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift
Dec 12, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Claude has virtually no consumer usage despite top benchmark scores
“It's basically, the only consumer, Claude has basically no consumer usage, even though on the benchmark score it's the same. And then it's ChatGPT, and then halfway down the chart, it's Meta and Google.”
Benedict Evans Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 40:19 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift
Dec 29, 2025 negative
Opinion
Moore: Instagram voice translation is Meta's only good 2025 consumer AI launch
“The one good consumer feature I think they've launched this year With AI is the Instagram AI translations”
Justine Moore Dec 29, 2025 ▶ 24:38 Where does consumer AI stand at the end of 2025?
Jan 7, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: The EU AI Act has largely killed AI development in Europe
“The EU passed this bill called the AI Act, I don't know, whatever, two years ago, and it basically has killed AI development, and, well, it's actually killed AI development in Europe to a large extent and then it even, it is so draconian that even, Even big Am…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 7, 2026 ▶ 37:11 Marc Andreessen's 2026 Outlook: AI Timelines, US vs. China, and The Price of AI
Jan 26, 2026 positive
Opinion
David George: Big tech can easily absorb potential AI capex overbuild
“It turns out they're the best companies, you know, probably ever created you know, companies like Google, Facebook you know, Amazon and Microsoft, and they can bear you know, potential capacity overbuild and things like that.”
David George Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 2:37 The Biggest Bottlenecks For AI: Energy & Cooling
Mar 10, 2026
Assertion Supported
Moore: Meta Acquired AI Agent Startup Manus for Over $2B
“They had a two billion dollar plus acquisition by Meta, also in the course of the list.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 26:38 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Apr 14, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Blockchain will be essential infrastructure to verify real content vs AI deepfakes
“Are you gonna trust Google? Are you gonna trust Meta? Are you gonna trust the US government? I think you wanna trust the kind of mathematical game theoretic properties Of the blockchain. So I think that's going to be just a very, very important part of the inf…”
Ben Horowitz Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 17:40 Ben Horowitz on AI Anxiety, Big Tech Transitions & The Future of Startups | a16z
May 4, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Rogers: Previous administration pressured Twitter and Meta to censor posts
“Under the prior administration included things like global engagement center censorship efforts that were the subject of the Murphy Supreme Court litigation, where the State Department Along with other organs of the executive branch would contact Twitter or Me…”
Sarah Rogers May 4, 2026 ▶ 2:03 Digital Freedom, AI Regulation, and the Fight for the Western Internet | The a16z Show
May 27, 2026
Assertion Supported
Rowan: Tech and industrial giants dominate private investment grade issuance
“But if you think of the largest issuers of private investment grade, it's Intel, it's Air France, it's EDF, it's AT&T, it's Meta, it's BP Energy, and so on, and you're hearing lots of public companies.”
Marc Rowan May 27, 2026 ▶ 20:12 Private Markets, Software Repricing and Capital Allocation | Marc Rowan on a16z
May 29, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: Anthropic and OpenAI add more monthly revenue than tech giants
“Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft.”
David George May 29, 2026 ▶ 1:43 The New Rule for Picking AI Winners | The a16z Show
Jun 8, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: AI integration is driving ad revenue gains at Google and Meta
“Which is, of course, why you see the ad numbers and the, you know, the conversion rates shooting up in the, every quarter from Google and Facebook. Because they're rolling all of this into their ad systems, and their recommendation engines, and their predictio…”
Benedict Evans Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 33:03 The Economics of AI Usage and What's Next For SaaS | Benedict Evans on a16z
Jun 8, 2026
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Evans: Microsoft, Meta, and Google spending over 50% of revenue on CapEx
“Microsoft, Meta, and Google are all on, in line to spend over 50% of revenue on CapEx this year.”
Benedict Evans Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 48:31 The Economics of AI Usage and What's Next For SaaS | Benedict Evans on a16z
Jun 8, 2026
Assertion Supported
Evans: Big Tech produces more profits than the entire telecoms industry
“You have a pretty safe bet that Google, Meta, Amazon Microsoft, Apple produce more profits than the entire telecoms industry.”
Benedict Evans Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 56:37 The Economics of AI Usage and What's Next For SaaS | Benedict Evans on a16z
Jul 17, 2026
Insight
Masad: Twitter reaches tech elites while YouTube and Meta reach early majority
“Twitter's influence is amazing, but it tends to be elite kind of inside group influence. I think Instagram, Facebook still, YouTube, Is where you get to the early majority.”
Amjad Masad Jul 17, 2026 ▶ 0:21 Why Every Founder Needs a Story | Replit CEO on a16z
Aug 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bornstein: Meta tailored Llama license thresholds to exclude only two companies
“I do remember that the numbers were like specifically chosen at that time that you could go find it was like two companies in the world. That like fit the definition that they had excluded from their license.”
Matt Bornstein Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 20:45 How Open Source Became AI's Backbone | Inferact with a16z
Sep 3, 2026 bearish
Insight
Rampell: Consumer business models degrade as CAC value flows to Google and Facebook
“I mean, Casper got to scale, but lots of CAC, and that's why a lot of these business models, they tend to degrade over time, because all the economic value goes to Google and Facebook.”
Alex Rampell Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 45:49 Why AI Agents Could Finally Reinvent the Credit Card
Sep 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chi: Meta Llama 4 Underperformed on Private Benchmarks Despite Public Scores
“One of the early indications of that you saw was when Meta released Lama four that was a bit of a disaster, and interestingly, what we saw is that on our held out private benchmarks, the model is actually underperforming, but on all of the major public benchma…”
Ryan Chi Sep 9, 2026 ▶ 2:38 Inside the Race to Measure Frontier Intelligence
Sep 10, 2026
Insight
Kha: GPs are fired for missing winners while LPs fear bad investments
“A GP can get fired for missing out, you know, the next, you know, Facebook, the next Uber, right? Like, that is error of omission, and like, that's fireable. But LPs on the flip side only get fired if you invest into a mentor. So in some respects, like, the in…”
Jen Kha Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 26:43 Why Investors Are Rethinking Everything for the AI Era
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