China

176 statements across 100 episodes · 54 bullish · 55 bearish · 87 people on the record · first statement Sep 28, 2015 by Kirsty Nathoo · said 1,439 times in 296 episodes since 2015 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (567), Rory O'Driscoll (56), Jonathan Ross (35), Hans Tung (26), Matteo Franceschetti (25), Anastasios Angelopoulos (24), Mitchell Green (22), Jason Lemkin (22)

tap a year for its mentions
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03060201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
00430860201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 382 mentions in 56 episodes 7 per episode
2025 356 mentions in 55 episodes 6 per episode
2024 221 mentions in 43 episodes 5 per episode
2023 162 mentions in 39 episodes 4 per episode
2022 62 mentions in 15 episodes 4 per episode
2021 55 mentions in 18 episodes 3 per episode
2020 22 mentions in 12 episodes 2 per episode
2019 25 mentions in 12 episodes 2 per episode
2018 102 mentions in 16 episodes 6 per episode
2017 19 mentions in 8 episodes 2 per episode
2016 26 mentions in 17 episodes 2 per episode
2015 7 mentions in 5 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about China, oldest first

Sep 28, 2015 neutral
Disclosure
Nathoo: YC evaluates expansion in China and India over Europe
“This is something we talk about a lot. Not necessarily YC Europe. We think about China, and we think about India a lot. It's something that, That we haven't figured out quite how it would work yet. I think YC is changing so much and has changed so much in the …”
Kirsty Nathoo Sep 28, 2015 ▶ 22:43 20 VC 075: Y COMBINATOR WEEK: Kirsty Nathoo, CFO @ Y Combinator
Jan 20, 2016 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Israel has more NASDAQ listings than Europe, China, and Japan combined
“You've got this country that's got, what, like, eight million people, and it's got more NASDAQ-listed companies than all of Europe, plus China, plus Japan combined.”
James Cameron Jan 20, 2016 ▶ 13:25 20VC: James Cameron @ Accel on Building Great Startup Communities and The Rise of Enterprise and Cyber Security Software
Mar 11, 2016 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
De Masi: Only four global markets support a billion-dollar annual game
“Korea, Japan, China, the US, those are the four markets that can support a billion dollar gain in a year.”
Niccolo De Masi Mar 11, 2016 ▶ 19:12 20VC: Niccolo De Masi on The Bursting Of The Tech Bubble and What It Takes To Be A Celebrity Partner with Glu Mobile
May 6, 2016 neutral
Prediction Held up
Morton: Lyst will avoid launching in China in the near term
“I think at some point we'll have to go into China with sort of a Chinese language site. You know, I don't know when that's going to be. I think there's definitely a lot of lessons from folks who've tried that and got burnt. You know, whether we want to do it o…”
Chris Morton May 6, 2016 ▶ 24:36 20VC: Why VC Is The Perfect Preparation For Founding A Startup & Changing The World Of Online Fashion with Chris Morton, Co-Founder & CEO @ Lyst
Jan 16, 2017 bullish
Disclosure
Chang: Mayfield invested in Next Entertainment to export China's live-streaming model
“So this is a company called Next Entertainment. They are taking the China live streaming phenomena and trying to see if that playbook will apply to the rest of the world. A rare case of instead of China doing copy-paste ventures on a successful US model may be…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 23:51 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Mar 13, 2017
Assertion Supported
Grady: Sequoia has 20 partners in India and 40 in China
“We have about 20 investment partners in India spread across three offices. We have about 40 investment partners in China spread across three offices.”
Pat Grady Mar 13, 2017 ▶ 10:55 20VC: Sequoia Partner, Pat Grady on Why Data Is The New Oil, Why We Will See The Return of The Apprenticeship Model in VC & The Defining Characteristics of The Next Generation of Great Software
Mar 24, 2017
Assertion Partly supported
80% of US manufacturing job losses came from tech, not China
“80% of the jobs that disappeared in US manufacturing did not Go to China. They went to technology.”
Christian Lanng Mar 24, 2017 ▶ 4:26 20VC: How To Raise $200m In Any Economic Climate, Scale From Garage To Global In Record Time & The Biggest Startup You Have Not Heard About with Christian Lanng, Founder & CEO @ Tradeshift
May 19, 2017 neutral
Assertion Supported
DJI dominates drone hardware manufacturing through vertical integration in China
“One is actually building the drones, and this is a space that's dominated by players like DJI, which are vertically integrated in China, really focused on being operationally excellent when it comes to manufacturing, and really focused on kind of rapidly itera…”
Jonathan Downey May 19, 2017 ▶ 9:17 20VC: The Future Business Model For Drones & Why Enterprise Drones Need To Be As Boring As Possible with Jonathan Downey, Founder & CEO @ Airware
Jan 8, 2018 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Hans Tung: Alibaba and JD.com Control Over 90% of Chinese E-Commerce
“I, fortunately we have that perspective being in China where Alibaba with Taobao and Tmall owns 80% of market share in e-commerce and JD has another over 10% market share in e-commerce.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 7:50 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 8, 2018 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hans Tung: Chinese E-Commerce Hits $1T Annually vs. $500B+ in US
“China, the online e-commerce market is roughly about one trillion dollars a year across the benchmark this year. In the U.S., it's well over half a half a trillion.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 8:56 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 8, 2018 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hans Tung: US E-Commerce Penetration Lags China's 15% at Just 8-9%
“Amazon has about 40% market share in the US. And e-commerce penetration into offline retail as a percentage of offline retail in the US is only eight or nine percent. In China, the same ratio is about 15%.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 8:13 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 8, 2018
Insight
Tung: Western tech companies must enter China via local strategic partners
“We think that a way to go to China is not necessarily to do it yourself, but find a strategic partner in the same way that Yahoo found Alibaba, and that's the right model. So it's not an issue of market. It's an issue of entry model in China.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 7:26 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 8, 2018
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tung: Gen Z and millennial consumer behaviors are converging globally
“There's a lot of similarity between a Gen Z consumer and a millennial consumer in the U.S. With China. And we're seeing similar users coming up in India, Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Europe, Western Europe as well.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 16:12 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 8, 2018 positive
Assertion Supported
Tung: Uber turned $1B–$2B investment in China into $7B Didi stake
“They put in about a billion to two in, and they have a stake that's worth seven billion.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 7:16 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chinese AI innovation will surge rapidly due to state and corporate support
“And then I think very soon we're going to see that, you know, the AI and machine learning and deep learning talent in China is very, very strong because the government and, you know, the large technology giants are so committed to it that very soon we're going…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 17:14 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Enterprise cloud and SaaS adoption in China lags decades behind US
“In the U S the transition to the cloud and to SaaS applications is pretty mature, right. And started in the early 2000. So there's a retirement now, the perpetual license, right. And even upon premises that I think is still much, much earlier in China.”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 8:07 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018 positive
Assertion Supported
Evernote and LinkedIn succeeded in China by granting local leaders autonomy
“For a long time now, people have pointed to Evernote and LinkedIn as being decent deployment that happened in China. And both of those cases, they hired very local sort of general managers or heads of China. It gave them the freedom to build their own teams, l…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 14:48 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018 neutral
Insight
US software companies must adapt to local Chinese practices to succeed
“If you want to deal with them today in this kind of environment, you really have to try to do it their way or compromise, because there's no need for them to ever buy from an American company, right? They could build in-house, they have local solutions that ar…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 12:38 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chinese tech sales models will eventually converge with US inside sales
“I think over time, they're going to converge. You know, I think China is going to go through the same evolution that the US did, right, 10 years ago in moving from field sales and person sales to inside sales to lightweight demand gen. I think it's as people b…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 11:42 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Insight
US tech companies in China require independent local leadership to succeed
“To succeed, you really have to be flexible with your business model, your pricing scheme, how you distribute, how you deal with customers. You really have to be flexible, and you can only do that by hiring local talent and giving them a lot of runway to be ind…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 14:23 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Assertion Contradicted
Bike and physical asset sharing were completely invented in China
“And so the whole concept of bike sharing, right. The concept of sharing anything like iPhone chargers, and now there are shared printers and various other things you can fix assets that you can share. Basically that was completely invented in China.”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 16:47 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Insight
Chinese enterprise software sales depend heavily on field sales and customization
“In China, you have to be very reliant on field sales. There's still the expectation that you would go see them in person, that you have to build trust that way. They still expect that you're going to do some level of customization for them, because they're jus…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 10:42 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Uncustomized enterprise software deal sizes in China are smaller than US
“If you sell pure software and it's relatively lightweight and it has minimal customization, that the deal sizes will be, you know, much smaller than in the U S.”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 9:26 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Insight
Chinese enterprise software cannot rely solely on pure SaaS monetization
“Somewhat tied to lower willingness to pay is the reality that you have to price things differently, and you have to grow to a hundred million dollar revenue business without just relying on pure recurring SaaS, right? And so it could be a combination of transa…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 8:27 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
May 29, 2018 bullish
Disclosure
GGV Capital has over 50% of its investments and team in China
“Today, half our team is in China, half our, over half our investment team, over 50% of our investments have been made in the China market.”
Glenn Solomon May 29, 2018 ▶ 16:27 20VC: Lessons From Slack and Opendoor on Price Sensitivity, Why The Best CEOs Are Able To Manage Momentum and Why Being A Board Member is a "Full Contact Sport" with Glenn Solomon, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
May 29, 2018 positive
Opinion
China is no longer a copycat market but a genuine innovation leader
“I think the smart entrepreneur now realizes that China's not a copycat market anymore, that real innovation is happening there, and they just want to learn.”
Glenn Solomon May 29, 2018 ▶ 18:10 20VC: Lessons From Slack and Opendoor on Price Sensitivity, Why The Best CEOs Are Able To Manage Momentum and Why Being A Board Member is a "Full Contact Sport" with Glenn Solomon, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
May 29, 2018 negative
Opinion
Silicon Valley-centric VCs miss the global tech interplay with China
“These are global trends and really for the first time are flattening technology markets so that the interplay between China and the U.S. Where we're focused and other markets as well is as vibrant as it's ever been, and that's where I think some of the folks W…”
Glenn Solomon May 29, 2018 ▶ 7:27 20VC: Lessons From Slack and Opendoor on Price Sensitivity, Why The Best CEOs Are Able To Manage Momentum and Why Being A Board Member is a "Full Contact Sport" with Glenn Solomon, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Oct 22, 2018 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Xie: China will eventually create its own national cryptocurrency
“China in terms of crypto, I actually think that they're going to be a big player in this industry. I think they will really start using this blockchain tech And be building out different tech themselves. I actually think they might even create their own crypto…”
Linda Xie Oct 22, 2018 ▶ 38:13 20VC: Scalar Capital's Linda Xjie on Who Will Win The Smart Contract War, The Future of Exchanges: Centralised or Decentralised & The Pros and Cons of Differing Privacy Coins
Jul 8, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI and China will disrupt the tech sector over the next decade
“The first talks about AI and China specifically, two of the macro forces that will totally disrupt tech in the next decade”
Byron Deeter Jul 8, 2019 ▶ 26:27 20VC: Bessemer's Byron Deeter On Lessons From Investing in 14 $Bn Companies, What The Heck Is Going On In Cloud Today and Why Cloud IPO Floodgates Are About To Burst Open
Apr 17, 2020 bullish
Disclosure
Kothari: Notion Signups Tripled In China And South Korea In One Week
“I think signups in China are up three X. Signups in Korea is up two, three X in just in the last week.”
Akshay Kothari Apr 17, 2020 ▶ 28:20 20VC: Notion's Fundraise with Index: The Most Anticipated Deal in The Valley: How It Came To Be | The Future of Remote Work |How Notion Approach The Balance of Growth and Profitability
Sep 28, 2020 positive
Opinion
Luckey: China is far better at large-scale manufacturing than the U.S.
“If China wanted to have a good blue water Navy, they would be kicking our butts. They are so much better at building things at large scale quickly than we are.”
Palmer Luckey Sep 28, 2020 ▶ 21:59 20VC: Anduril Founder, Palmer Luckey: "I Am Here To Build a $50Bn Company", How Palmer Evaluates His Relationship To Money Pre & Post Oculus' $2.3Bn Exit & Why The US DOD Needs To Be More Like China in It's Approach
Jan 4, 2021
Assertion Supported
Gurley: 35% of Chinese college graduates are engineers versus 5% in US
“And they have like, what, 35% of the college graduates and China are engineers. That number in the U.S. Is like five”
Bill Gurley Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 15:29 20VC: Bill Gurley and Howard Marks: What Happened In 2020? What Can We Expect Looking Forward to 2021?
Jan 4, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gurley: China is already a major capital lender in South America
“They've already started being a lender of capital across the globe, heavily in South America, so it's not like they're just beginning the journey outside of their borders.”
Bill Gurley Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 29:44 20VC: Bill Gurley and Howard Marks: What Happened In 2020? What Can We Expect Looking Forward to 2021?
Sep 14, 2021 negative
Insight
Doug Leone: US venture partners will fail trying to invest in China directly
“In other words, we were absolutely sure that he and I would get it wrong. We didn't know we were going to recruit Neil Shen. We didn't know we were going to find someone who would get it. Absolutely. Absolutely right. But we like the chances of an unknown pers…”
Doug Leone Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 32:38 20VC: Sequoia's Doug Leone on What Has Been Instrumental To Scaling Sequoia Over Generations, How Sequoia Think About International Expansion and What They Learned From China and India & Why When You Lose Pre-Seed You Become Private Equity
Sep 14, 2021
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Leone: Sequoia had to aggressively intervene in every entity at least once
“In every line of business, whether it's China, India, Southeast Asia, our hedge fund, a multi-family office called Heritage, we've had to go in and effect change as Once. So it wasn't that we got it so perfect from the beginning. So we had to go in aggressivel…”
Doug Leone Sep 14, 2021 ▶ 33:31 20VC: Sequoia's Doug Leone on What Has Been Instrumental To Scaling Sequoia Over Generations, How Sequoia Think About International Expansion and What They Learned From China and India & Why When You Lose Pre-Seed You Become Private Equity
Feb 21, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Doerr: Enphase gains covered Kleiner's losses across six failed solar investments
“We invested in seven solar companies. The Chinese crushed six of them, all six of which made solar panels. The seventh one made microinverters. It's name is Enphase, and the gains from Enphase made up for the losses across all the rest of the solar investments”
John Doerr Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 3:44 How I Bought 12% of Google for $12M; How VC is Fixing Climate Change | John Doerr Full Interview · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Doerr: EVs will reach price parity in the US by 2024
“This is key result one dot one to achieve price performance parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in the US by 2024. That means they cost 35,000 dollars and in India and China importantly by 2030 where the cost target has to be 11,000 dollars.”
John Doerr Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 13:37 How I Bought 12% of Google for $12M; How VC is Fixing Climate Change | John Doerr Full Interview · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 23, 2022
Assertion Supported
LATAM tech penetration is 1.5% of GDP versus 52% in the US
“When you look at that tech penetration index in a more developed country like the United States, that's around 52%. Even if you look at, you know, China, that number is 20%. You look at India, it's 15%. But when you look at what the tech penetration level is a…”
Julio Vasconcellos Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 44:15 Julio Vasconcellos: Scaling to $100M and 1,200 Employees and then Cratering | 20VC #928 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 25, 2022
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael: Uber burned $100M monthly competing against Didi in China
“And we were spending A hundred million dollars a month competing there.”
Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 26:01 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 25, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Emil Michael: No US consumer tech company operated in China before Uber
“Think about what consumer tech companies operate in China. Zero. There was, there's enterprise tech like Hewlett Packard and IBM and all those guys, but no one else had done that.”
Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 25:29 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 18, 2023
Insight
Lower labor costs in China favor human growth operations over product automation
“The most popular role in China's growth space is called operation. It doesn't exist here in US at all. I was confused initially, but what is behind that is because the average labor cost in China is lower. So a lot of things that tend to be automated here in t…”
Hila Qu Jan 18, 2023 ▶ 59:22 Hila Qu: The Ultimate Guide to Product Growth at Your Startup | 20VC #967 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 15, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paid Acquisition Drove 40% to 50% of Uber's Global Growth
“When we were doing a billion dollars, that included China, and that was more than 50%, like paid drove a ton of our growth in China. And so, and it was like, it was nonsense. It was just wild. And so, like, let's say six, seven hundred million dollars on, like…”
Adam Grenier Mar 15, 2023 ▶ 52:04 Adam Grenier: The Inside Story to Uber’s Hypergrowth; How We Spent $1B/mo in China | E989 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Carney: China accounted for half of global clean energy investment in 2022
“China accounted for half of clean energy investment last year, about five hundred and fifty billion US of the 1.1 trillion. So half in effect. Renewable investments growing at 50% a year. They have more than 50% of the EV market in terms of the flow there.”
Mark Carney May 1, 2023 ▶ 38:33 Mark Carney: First Republic Bank Fails; Will Interest Rates Rise? Global Warming's Net Zero | E1008 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Carney: Two-Thirds of Global Carbon Emissions Come From Emerging Markets
“Two thirds of the emissions in the world now come from the emerging world. Now that includes China. China's about 30% of global emissions. So, but you've got 35% plus of emissions coming from countries that most private investors never visit, don't have exposu…”
Mark Carney May 1, 2023 ▶ 53:07 Mark Carney: First Republic Bank Fails; Will Interest Rates Rise? Global Warming's Net Zero | E1008 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2023 bearish
Assertion Supported
Summers: Annual births in China dropped by half in six years
“And the number of babies born in China has fallen by just about half in the last six years.”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 33:47 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2023 negative
Opinion
Summers: Europe is a museum, Japan a nursing home, China a jail
“It's a joke, but not without some element of truth to say that Europe's a museum, Japan's a nursing home, China's a jail, and Bitcoin's an experiment.”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 28:47 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 14, 2023 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sunak: UK creates more unicorns than any country except US and China
“More than France and Germany combined, more unicorns than anywhere apart from the US and China.”
Rishi Sunak Jun 14, 2023 ▶ 5:12 Rishi Sunak: The UK's New High Potential Visa; Rishi's £100M AI Task Force | E1025 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lebrun: Lack of Privacy Regulations Gives China Major AI Data Advantage
“So, so China, they have, like, a key advantage that, like, there is no GDPR or very few regulation internally and so the data quality they have and the amounts, both the quality and quantity of data is incredible in China.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:05:33 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 negative
Opinion
Europe Is 10 Years Behind the US and China in AI
“Europe is probably 10 years late compared to U.S. And China, and with a new regulation, we are probably going to take 50 years more.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:00:56 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Western democracies will lag China in AI adoption
“I worry that the Western political system Ah, and capitalism is by permission of democracy. Ah, so the Western political system will pay more importance to the short term, which is things like job displacement, while in China you might get Tiananmen Square typ…”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 10:35 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2023 positive
Opinion
Velez: Complacency allowed emerging markets to surpass US and Europe in fintech
“I think that level of complacency in these industries, in these big countries, has stopped innovation and have permitted that a lot of these emerging markets, these technologies have leapfrog to a place today where, where Brazil, China, India are ahead of U.S.…”
David Vélez Sep 11, 2023 ▶ 36:48 David Velez: How AI Changes The Future of Finance | E1059 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2023
Assertion Supported
Petersen: Average hourly wage in Mexico is lower than in China
“The average hourly wage in Mexico is now cheaper than in China.”
Ryan Petersen Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 39:51 Ryan Petersen: Why Velocity not Speed is Most Important in Company Building | E1081 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2023 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Petersen: Most Chinese people work six days a week
“I lived in China for two years. They work Saturdays. We don't work Saturdays. You know, that's a bit extreme, but most Chinese people work six days a week.”
Ryan Petersen Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 44:40 Ryan Petersen: Why Velocity not Speed is Most Important in Company Building | E1081 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2023 negative
Opinion
Petersen: Chinese believe in China, while half of Americans hate America
“Chinese people believe in China. Half of Americans hate America.”
Ryan Petersen Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 44:17 Ryan Petersen: Why Velocity not Speed is Most Important in Company Building | E1081 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2024 negative
Disclosure
MITIMCo is significantly reducing its investment exposure in China
“We're definitely, I think like many others, we're doing a lot less there now. I mean, we're not gonna categorically not do it at all yet. But we are reducing it, and to the things that we keep doing, we're, you know, we're very careful about whether they're pe…”
Ryan Akkina Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 50:22 Ryan Akkina: How MIT Builds Their Venture Fund Portfolio & How MIT Approach Direct Investing | E1109 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Hecker: European tech ecosystem has fallen behind the US and China
“I mean, we pride ourselves that Europe has grown a lot, but still relatively speaking has lost a track with America and China.”
Christian Hecker Feb 16, 2024 ▶ 53:05 Christian Hecker & Johan Brenner: The Biggest Fundraising Lessons Having Raised $1.3BN | E1116 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tangen: Sentiment is lowest in US offices and China, highest in US tech
“If you look at where are sentiments really high and where are they really low, clearly US offices, so real estate, very low. China, very low. US tech, very high.”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 29:19 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Tangen: Norges Bank Investment Management invests in Chinese companies
“We invest in great Chinese companies, and there are, you know, many of them, which are good.”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 29:00 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: China Is Likely to Launch a Military Strike Within Four Years
“I'm very concerned about the geopolitical situation with China and Russia and the potential of war. When I was in, you know, a country in Asia, I won't say the name, seeing our ambassador there, who's on the other political side, but a very smart guy. Even he …”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 1:00:35 Joe Lonsdale: The Future of TikTok; Is it a Danger to US National Security? | E1125 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: China Controls TikTok's Algorithms to Brainwash Tens of Millions of Americans
“Yeah, I would force them to divest of Tik Tok. I think that, I think that's fine for Americans own Tik Tok. I think right now, China controls the Tik Tok algorithms. I don't care if the guy's based in Singapore, some of the data's here. It's very clear China c…”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 28:35 Joe Lonsdale: The Future of TikTok; Is it a Danger to US National Security? | E1125 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lonsdale: China Is the Single Biggest Threat to the United States
“China is by far our biggest threat to have that kind of dictatorship. A lot of people like to pretend that it's just like, oh, Americans are just being like nativist or hawkish or whatever. No, this guy was hiring a lot of his best and brightest to build milit…”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 29:20 Joe Lonsdale: The Future of TikTok; Is it a Danger to US National Security? | E1125 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 25, 2024 bearish
Disclosure
David Clark: VenCap's China allocation dropped by half over ten years
“It's come down by half over the last 10 years.”
David Clark Mar 25, 2024 ▶ 25:05 David Clark: Lessons from 32 Years of Fund Investing - Why Exits Will Be Larger | E1131 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Stephens: Cold War Defense Platforms Are Irrelevant in Future Conflicts
“Like, the capabilities, the huge expensive platforms that we built for competing with the Soviet Union are not particularly relevant in a future conflict with, you know, a China or an Iran.”
Trae Stephens Apr 3, 2024 ▶ 49:38 Trae Stephens: Why No Company is Successful Because of their VC | E1135 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024
Insight
Mensch: Startups cannot operate in both the US and China simultaneously
“We don't operate in China because you can't really operate in US and China without being like a very, very large corporation.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 36:35 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Schroepfer: China installed more solar in 2023 than total US capacity
“China last year installed more solar in 20, 23 than exists in the United States.”
Mike Schroepfer May 29, 2024 ▶ 46:56 Mike Schroepfer: Former Meta CTO on "Why The Best Leaders are Like Music Conductors" | E1158 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
US Tech Giants Have Legal Autonomy That Chinese Counterparts Lack
“Google does not work for the US government. Microsoft does not work for the US government. There is, there's ways they're accountable by law, but they have to go through a legal process for that kind of thing. And so, given that legal process doesn't exist wit…”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 57:56 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2024 negative
What-if
Alex Wang: China or Russia would use AGI to conquer if developed first
“Let's say China or Russia had AGI today and the United States didn't, I would imagine they would use that to conquer.”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 0:10 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 17, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Index Ventures avoided expanding to China and India to maintain focus
“I think that reflecting back, not going to, not jumping on the bandwagon and going to China or India was actually a really important lesson for us in maintaining maintaining our focus.”
Danny Rimer Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 4:16 Danny Rimer: The Biggest Lessons from Missing Snap, Airbnb, Spotify and Facebook | E1166 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: US, China, and Israel will lead AI over Europe due to lower regulation
“And so when you look at kind of the key markets for AI development, where the US is first and China is second and Israel is third I think those are likely to be less regulated than most, and certainly than Europe, and so these, those will be advantaged economi…”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 24:05 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Eisenberg: Western VC investment in China was a ZERP phenomenon
“I think China was a ZERP phenomenon also.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 59:18 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: China is 10 years ahead of US in TikTok AI psyops
“I think they were 10 years ahead of the U.S. On AI and psyops using TikTok. I think they were 10 years ahead of the U.S. In sophistication of how to manipulate the minds of young people.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 26:49 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: US Nvidia chip bans have not meaningfully slowed China's AI
“The U.S. Put a banner on Nvidia chips going to China. I don't sense that it slowed China down in a meaningful way.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 26:13 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Matt Clifford: China Requires AI Developers to Submit Training Data to Government
“For example, if you train a large model, you have to, like, supply random samples of the training data to the to the CCP or to the government. You have to you have to, like, show it's, like, political, that it is not gonna undermine any of the, you know, state…”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 18:42 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chinese AI Developers Translate Western Research Faster Than the West Translates Theirs
“When Leopold Aschenbrenner published his situational awareness thing, which obviously, like, you know, became You know, kind of blew up a couple of weeks ago. Within three days, I hear from a friend who follows China very closely, there were five Chinese circu…”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 21:23 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024 bearish
Insight
Matt Clifford: CCP Restrictions Hinder China From Producing Untrammeled AGI Founders
“And I think in China, as we've seen in other parts of the tech industry in China, the CCP is very nervous about entrepreneurs being given that much room. And so I think that it's not trivial to create the conditions in which a Chinese Sam Altman or a Chinese D…”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 20:09 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Matt Clifford: Next US President Will Maintain Aggressive Nvidia Export Bans
“The one bipartisan issue in Washington Is screw China. And, you know, like, it's certainly true that I remember writing about in 20, you know, 1819, about, like, Trump export controls, and what's interesting is that the Biden White House has been as aggressive…”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 23:38 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matt Clifford: China Is More Paranoid About AI Safety Than Other Governments
“China is more paranoid about AI safety than probably any other government.”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 17:48 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 8, 2024 negative
What-if
Grady: Sequoia should have split from India and China branches earlier
“In 2005, when we got into India and China, we did so with the thesis that the world is getting smaller. When we parted ways in 20, 23, it was because that thesis in some ways had been invalidated. And so I think maybe we could have done that a few years sooner…”
Pat Grady Jul 8, 2024 ▶ 42:39 Pat Grady: Sequoia Partner on Investing Lessons from Doug Leone, Roelof Botha and Alfred Lin | E1174 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 5, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Cahn predicts China will catch up in AI development
“I think that China is going to catch up.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 40:20 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 12, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Maguire: Around 60% of China's cross-border trade is conducted in Yuan
“Like you look at the cross-border trade in China and like the percent of it that's happening in Yuan now, it's now like 60% is happening in Yuan, which is insane compared to a decade ago.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 1:02:12 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 12, 2024 positive
Opinion
Maguire: Trump was the best modern president on Russia, Iran, China
“If you look at what actually happened, I think that Trump was the best president in the modern era. At dealing with Russia, the best at dealing with Iran, the best at dealing with China.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 12:22 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 12, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Maguire: China and the East will wildly outproduce West in munitions
“I think that over time, like in a war of production, the East will win. I think that China will just wildly outproduce munitions compared to the West.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 1:04:04 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 12, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shaun Maguire: Direct US-China World War III Is Extremely Unlikely
“I think it's unlikely to be World War III. I think it would just be a very big regional war. I like for it to be World War III, you'd have to have Like, China and the US directly involved with each other, and I think that's extremely unlikely right now.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 19:47 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 26, 2024 negative
Opinion
Imran Khan: Lack of regulatory predictability makes investing in China difficult
“The challenge in China is, you know, again, what drive valuation? Consistency and predictability. So right now there is no predictability on regulations, right? So it's hard to invest.”
Imran Khan Aug 26, 2024 ▶ 56:14 Imran Khan: Why the IPO Market is Not Closed & Lessons From Taking Snap & Alibaba Public | E1194 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 positive
Insight
Kolter: AI safety requires global collaboration rather than national competition
“I think there are certain things like, for example, AI safety, where we very much need to work as a world to help set standards and help better the future of everyone here. Because yes, certain things can be done by countries. Capabilities can maybe advance mo…”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 1:01:56 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 7, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Kant: China is not years behind the West in AI progress
“No, I think China is at an incredible level of capabilities and in no way should be discarded or thought of as years behind on AI or AGI progress.”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 1:05:39 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 7, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kant: The vast majority of interesting open AI research comes from China
“The research that still gets published openly, right, that doesn't get held back, that is most interesting, is all coming out of China in vast spades and majorities.”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 1:05:10 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Wang: China's market will recover driven by founder quality
“It has to. I mean, The level of just pure entrepreneurship, the level of just the founder quality, how smart and aggressive they are. It's just remarkable. And I just don't think that goes away.”
Jeff Wang Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 59:08 Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024 negative
Opinion
Grimm: China is the primary geopolitical threat to Western values
“China, hands down. The mindset of the PRC, I think their approach to basic human rights, I think their conducting of an ongoing genocide with their Uyghur population, I think their approach to free speech, to political assembly, to religious freedom, are funda…”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 0:07 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Grimm: China personally sanctioned me for selling missiles to Taiwan
“I mean, I was personally sanctioned by China for selling missiles to Taiwan as was my co-founder, Brian Schimpf, and a couple other executives in the company itself.”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 4:58 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Matt Grimm: China will not invade Taiwan if Western deterrence holds
“I, Think that if America does its job and the West and our allies do their jobs, I think no.”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 4:46 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Villig: Bolt employs over 1,000 people on vertically integrated scooter operations
“We today are one of the few players that's fully vertically integrated, so we have our own hardware team, so we design our own squatters, we have our own team in China where we manufacture them, we then ship them to Europe, we have hundreds of warehouses, we t…”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:09:14 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Arison: China is an absolute tyranny pretending to have free markets
“China is a complete and not a tyranny, obviously. But we don't think of it that way because it pretends to have free market economics, which it really doesn't, but people think it does.”
George Arison Dec 4, 2024 ▶ 59:36 George Arison, Grindr CEO: How Grindr Built a Free Flow Cash Machine | E1234 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Torsten Reil: A China-Taiwan conflict will occur much sooner than 10 years
“I, again, I think it's plausible that there will be a conflict. When? It's hard to tell. I don't think it's 10 years away if it happens. It's probably quite a lot sooner than that.”
Torsten Reil Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 1:06:27 Torsten Reil, Helsing Founder: Raising $828M to Build the Defence Champion of Europe | E1237 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Helsing's 2021 pitch deck predicted invasions of Ukraine and Taiwan
“When we started Helsing in March, 2021, we actually put one of our slides that we thought there were going to be two galvanizing events. One of them was going to be an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the other one an invasion of Taiwan by China.”
Torsten Reil Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Torsten Reil, Helsing Founder: Raising $828M to Build the Defence Champion of Europe | E1237 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Hoffman: China uses subsidies as mercantile warfare to destroy Western competition
“You're actually, in fact, trying to destroy our industry in the short term so that you can then raise prices later and capture it. That is mercantile warfare. Responding to mercantile warfare is completely fine.”
Reid Hoffman Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 8:57 Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn & Paypal Founder: Trump Administration, Elon Musk and DOGE | E1239 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Hoffman: U.S. Should Ban TikTok Based on Commercial Reciprocity
“The right way, I think, to think about this from an American or any other perspective is to say China bans Competition in China from Meta, Twitter, etc. And so the right way to say is like, look, if you're banning our companies, we should ban yours. Commercial…”
Reid Hoffman Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 19:37 Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn & Paypal Founder: Trump Administration, Elon Musk and DOGE | E1239 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 20, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kanji: Chinese EVs will wipe out the German car industry
“Yes, I'm really terrified that the German car industry is going to get wiped out by China. Like, by the EVs in China. I think they're asleep at the wheel.”
Hussein Kanji Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 54:07 Hussein Kanji, Founder @Hoxton Ventures: Why AI Means London Can Compete with the US | E1248 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Ross: Groq decided in 2016 to avoid China for commercial reasons
“And so, in 2016, when Grok started, we decided that we were not going to do business in China. This was not a geopolitical decision. This was purely commercial.”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 13:43 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025 negative
Insight
Ross: Foreign companies in China cannot extract net profits
“And the formula is actually pretty simple. You're not allowed to make net money. You're allowed to spend more money in China. But the moment that you start to become profitable or anywhere near profitable, all of a sudden there's a thumb on the scale.”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 14:01 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ross: Chinese tech relies on state-backed IP theft from Western firms
“And then you look at China, China practices R D T research development theft. It's just part of the culture. And it's not just against Western company. It's against each other too. The difference is if you're a Western company, then the government Steals from …”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 29:52 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025
Disclosure
Ross: Groq blocks IP addresses originating from China
“One of the problems, so we actually block IP addresses from China.”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 11:09 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025 negative
Insight
Ross: IP blocking fails to enforce AI export restrictions
“It's also a little bit fruitless because, you know, someone could just like rent a server anywhere and then log into us from there. Right? And then there's nothing we can check. So I don't know that IP addresses are really the right way to do it anyway. I thin…”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 11:16 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025
Insight
Ross proposes automated matching subsidies to deter foreign AI and tech intervention
“There needs to be some sort of Automated response of like, if you do this, we will respond. If you subsidize this industry, we will automatically subsidize the equivalent industry. Just automatic. So don't do it because there's no benefit to you.”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 22:24 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Chinese mobile app design favors bold visuals over Western minimalism
“And the reality is you go to China and there's, it's different, right? It's not as like the sleek, elegant design isn't where design sort of falls into the background isn't as prominent and it's a lot more, you know, color and red and big buttons and that type…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 3:30 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 17, 2025 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2030
Ross: Global power limits will block Chinese AI chip exports
“If they want to go out into the world and deploy chips like they did with Huawei and networking gear, that's going to be complicated because people aren't going to have the power around the world to run more expensive accelerators.”
Jonathan Ross Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 59:10 Jonathan Ross, Founder & CEO @ Groq: NVIDIA vs Groq - The Future of Training vs Inference | E1260 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 17, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Ross: Southeast Asian GPU deployments secretly serve Chinese firms
“One of the concerns right now is about Malaysia or Singapore, that region over there being a place where people are deploying GPUs with the wink, wink, like we're not going to rent it to China, right? But that's a belief that a lot of people are doing that. Ot…”
Jonathan Ross Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 1:01:44 Jonathan Ross, Founder & CEO @ Groq: NVIDIA vs Groq - The Future of Training vs Inference | E1260 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Morin: China's domestic AI chips currently match Nvidia's A100 capability
“They're a bit late in terms of, you know, ASIC. There are like A-one-hundred level”
Steeve Morin Feb 24, 2025 ▶ 1:09:27 Steeve Morin: Why Google Will Win the AI Arms Race & OpenAI Will Not | E1262 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 24, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Hardware bans will force China to out-innovate Western AI long-term
“They are constrained, so they are bound to Bound to do better. They can just not buy their way into better compute. So I think it hinders their success, but I think it's short term to think that way.”
Steeve Morin Feb 24, 2025 ▶ 1:09:47 Steeve Morin: Why Google Will Win the AI Arms Race & OpenAI Will Not | E1262 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Krieger: Underestimating China's frontier AI capabilities is a mistake
“It was absolutely. Be a mistake to have underestimated or continue to underestimate like China's ability to both train at the frontier especially like if they get access to compute and then continue to innovate there too.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 32:52 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Singlehurst: ByteDance leads online ads and ranks third in Chinese e-commerce
“They're the market leader in online advertising in China. And I think at the moment they're about number three in e-commerce in China.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 33:02 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Singlehurst: China remains a massive investment opportunity
“I think it does. I think it does remain a big opportunity.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 47:19 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Feldman: Western tech leaders fundamentally underestimate China's AI capabilities
“A hundred percent. I think, and it is one of the most obvious and frequent errors in judgment. Is that you underestimate the other side. I think, ah, you have to look carefully at what they're doing, and their investment in infrastructure has been extraordinar…”
Andrew Feldman Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 1:01:28 Andrew Feldman, Cerebras Co-Founder and CEO: The AI Chip Wars & The Plan to Break Nvidia's Dominance · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 24, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras rejected China AI chip deal over ethical concerns
“And I asked myself that, and I came to believe that, that the deal on the table was, wouldn't be used for good, and I wasn't comfortable with that, and I wouldn't have been able to explain to my mother. And that's a moral compass, and I think that's, ah, ah.”
Andrew Feldman Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 1:00:37 Andrew Feldman, Cerebras Co-Founder and CEO: The AI Chip Wars & The Plan to Break Nvidia's Dominance · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Green: The West completely underestimates China's capabilities in AI
“A hundred percent. I just have seen how hard people in China work at some of these tech companies.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:02:57 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 28, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Hoggett: UK creates more unicorns than any country besides US and China
“We create more unicorns than anywhere outside the US and China, and we're a world leading capital market by any measure.”
Julia Hoggett Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17 Julia Hoggett, CEO @ LSEG plc: The Myths and the Reality of The London Stock Exchange · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lazarte: U.S. is winning the AI race against China by all measures
“I think by all, like, I think by all measures, like the U.S. Is winning. If you look at, like, all the AI products, like, ChatCPT is the most used, ah, AI assistant in the world, and sure, you can talk about, like, oh, how about DeepSeq and this and that, but …”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 44:39 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Sequoia abandoned billions in value exiting China
“We saw very intelligent investors, Sequoia, people like that get out of billions of dollars Of value because they just wouldn't want to be there.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:08:15 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grinda: US lacks manufacturing capacity and would lose a war with China
“Right now, we don't have the manufacturing capacity. We would lose a war with China right now.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:13:30 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 17, 2025 bearish
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI labs will stop releasing open-source models due to economics
“If you're in the quadrant of patriotic and greedy, which let's be frank, most of that quote people are, you ain't going to be releasing any open source models right now, because it's a Value destroyer from an economics perspective. And you are, you have the wh…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 31:12 Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Casado: Open-Source AI Is Dangerous Because China Is Better At It
“I think that right now open source is most dangerous because China is better at it than we are, and as a result of that.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 30:05 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Carnegie Mellon Backed a China Fund Returning Over 20x Net
“We had a fund out of China that produced over a 20 X net return to LPs.”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:09:10 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 4, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Top Chinese Founders Are Shifting Fundraising to US, Singapore, and London
“And frankly, you know, a lot of the best, you know, Chinese founders have chosen to raise elsewhere, whether in the US or Singapore or London it's a tough place.”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:10:53 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Osika: 50% chance the best AI model comes from China
“I do think there's like a fifty-fifty chance they will have the best model. We'll be using a Chinese model at some point, because...”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 0:31 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Frosst: China has not yet built AI models that beat top US models
“They haven't yet. Right. They've made good models. Definitely good models, but I don't think they've made models that are like beating, you know, the other models out there.”
Nick Frosst Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 1:09:19 Cohere Founder, Nick Frosst: How To Compete with OpenAI & Anthropic, and Sam Altman’s AI Disservice · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 1, 2025 positive
Opinion
Frosst: US and Chinese AI models cannot replace sovereign, culturally native models
“And I think just using a model that is built, you know, by China or built within America might not set your country and your economy up as well as having a model that understands the context built in that language, in that dialect, in like, you know, has the c…”
Nick Frosst Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 57:58 Cohere Founder, Nick Frosst: How To Compete with OpenAI & Anthropic, and Sam Altman’s AI Disservice · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 5, 2025 negative
Opinion
Alex Schultz: Europe is not in the global AI race
“Europe's not in the race right now. I mean, maybe it can find a way to be in the race, but I don't think it's in the race. You've got the US and China as the two groups that are leading in AI.”
Alex Schultz Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 29:53 20Growth: Meta CMO Alex Schultz on How All Founders Have to Change Their Marketing Playbook in a World of AI | Is AI Plateauing, What it Means if China Wins the AI Race and Why Zuck is a Generational Leader
Sep 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taneja: US and China are comparable in AI, separated by months
“I think China and the US are very comparable in where they are in AI today. There's a few months lead here and there.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 30:40 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: A US-China TikTok deal will be signed within 60 days
“Whatever this crazy deal is, it's going to get signed in the next 60. I think these deals are going to get done this calendar year, and I think it's going to get signed”
Jason Lemkin Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 1:20:20 The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US & NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Ross: China will build 150 nuclear reactors to power domestic AI compute
“They're going to build a 150 nuclear reactors. So they're going to have enough energy, even though their chips aren't as energy efficient.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 32:10 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Ross: US will maintain AI hardware advantage over China for 2-3 years
“So my expectation is that right now for the next two to three years, the United States has a clear advantage in that away game over China.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 32:34 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras passed on a major China deal in 2019 before export controls
“We had a huge opportunity in, in 2019 to do a deal in China, and I decided to pass because I didn't think it was the right thing to do. Long before the Department of Commerce limited exports to China, I didn't think it was right.”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 57:00 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 positive
Opinion
Pineau: Building AI models outside the US and China creates a healthier industry
“I do think it's healthy that there are models that are getting built in different places around the world, not just in the US and China right now. I think this is healthy in terms of diversity of thoughts. I think it's healthy in terms of having a greater amou…”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 26:41 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Opinion
Andrew Ng: US chip export controls have backfired and accelerated Chinese innovation
“I think the export control on chips has largely backfired. The way that the US and I think that the way the US first put restrictions on Huawei and then later on, you know, exported NVIDIA and AMD and other semiconductors that really incentivized China. So bef…”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 28:18 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Andrew Ng: China is leading the US in releasing open-weight AI models
“China especially has been really taking the lead or, well, Taking a lead or getting up there in terms of releasing tons of really good open way models. So I would say if not, it is kind of not whatever predicted, you know, a decade ago that China AI would end …”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 21:38 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andrew Ng: China builds a global AI user base via free models
“Open-weight models are a key part of the AI supply chain, and China releasing, you know, free low-cost or free models into that key part of supply chain means it's, Really starting to build up a lead, right, in, in build up a commanding user base”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 24:16 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 1, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Siddharth: Chinese open-source AI models like DeepSeek and Qwen are state-of-the-art
“I think it's very impressive, like the progress that they've made in open source with DeepSeek Kimi Ketu, Kuen. These models are state of the art.”
Jonathan Siddharth Dec 1, 2025 ▶ 1:09:21 Turing CEO Jonathan Siddharth: Who Wins in Data Labelling & Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Disappear · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
O'Driscoll: Startups will decouple engineering teams from China over regulatory risk
“So I think you're just going to see a gradual separation. You'll just examine the risks and go, why would I, you know, yeah, I can get great engineers. I can save 20, 30%. But in return, I get embroiled in arguments on Twitter, but more importantly, I probably…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 1:23:05 SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price & Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Chang: China has laid more grid cables than all Western economies combined
“They've laid more cables of grid than all Western economies combined.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 26:41 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026
Assertion Supported
Chang: China deploys more solar power than all Western economies combined
“In China, they deploy more solar than the all Western economies combined.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 26:28 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026 positive
Opinion
Chang: Western nations should follow China's energy policy model
“I think that's a, yeah, model economy we should follow for energy policy.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 26:59 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Chang: UK energy consumption dropped 25% while China's grew 7x
“So if you look at energy consumption per capita in the last 25 years, UK has dropped 25%. In the US, it's been flat. In China, in the same period of time, it's gone up by seven times.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 18:46 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026
Assertion Supported
Chang: Electricity costs 25-30 cents in Europe, 10-15 in US, 8 in China
“So, like, if you look at the, what the Brits and Europeans pay in terms of, you know, cost per kilowatt, it's roughly 25 to 30 dollar cents. And the US is 10 to 15 dollar cents. In China, it's eight dollar cents.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 25:35 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitchell Green: China will win the global AI competition
“Don't count China out. I bet they win the AI world.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 27:33 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Green: China can engineer and reverse engineer tech cheaper than Americans
“Don't underestimate, like, Chinese creativeness and, like, ingenuity to, like, figure out how to, like, reverse engineer and engineer things in much cheaper ways than Americans can do.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 30:49 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Green: The biggest internet innovations of the last decade came from China
“Look, if you look at the internet, the biggest innovation in internet is usually over the last decade or 15 years to come out of China.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 30:37 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Midha: Integrated Huawei Chips Rival Top US AI Chips
“Huawei chips are able to produce capabilities improvements today in China that rival some of the best chips here when integrated up and down the stack.”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 44:06 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Levie: US-China AI race is commercial, not existential
“You know, the idea that we're in some kind of, you know, kind of race, existential race where a month or two of advantage is gonna, you know, change the total outcome of AI progress and what everybody does between us and China. I just don't agree with, I think…”
Aaron Levie Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 2:42 Aaron Levie: Everyone is Wrong; We'll Have More Developers in 5 Years · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: China represents 30% of market and $40B chip revenue for Nvidia
“30% of the entire market is in China. He wants to sell those guys Nvidia chips, and there's simply no argument on God's green earth that's going to convince him that he shouldn't get that forty billion dollars of revenue from shipping chips to China.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 1:43:14 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Manus-style cross-border tech acquisitions will never happen again
“What it really is doing is it's less about getting this thing back than it's preventing it from ever happening again. That's the first, last, and only one of these deals that anyone will do, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 37:02 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Zero chance VCs return capital from blocked Manus deal
“The investors who've gotten their capital out, the chances of them having to or being willing to return that capital are zero.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 35:58 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Tobi Lütke: Over 60% of Canadians view US as top national risk
“60% of people, more than 60, I think the numbers have gone up since, and people think that the United States is the largest risk to Canada, like, much larger than, like, Russia or China would be.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 42:12 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 26, 2026 negative
Opinion
Feldman asserts China will inevitably use advanced US chips for military applications
“If we sell leading edge technology to China, will their military use it? Everybody says yes. There is no debate on that point. Their military will use it. You ask a second question, which is, if you sell our leading edge technology, will they, will their gover…”
Andrew Feldman May 26, 2026 ▶ 44:05 Cerebras CEO on the Future of Data Centres, Token Costs & Memory | Should US Companies Sell to China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 26, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman claims the US power grid relies on outdated 1950s technology
“Their power infrastructure is extraordinary. And in the US, we are a patchwork of 19 fifties technology, if we're lucky.”
Andrew Feldman May 26, 2026 ▶ 47:49 Cerebras CEO on the Future of Data Centres, Token Costs & Memory | Should US Companies Sell to China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Foody: Investor Spread False Rumors of China Accessing Mercor Data
“Think of one person that's very prominent who's invested in multiple competitors and just, like, made this tweet about how all of our data was getting accessed by China when it was totally untrue.”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 5:23 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026
Opinion
China builds AI data centers faster with zero permitting constraints
“And one advantage they have is they can actually build data centers A lot faster. Power is not a problem. Permits are not a problem. People are not a problem. Labor is not a problem. Expertise is not a problem.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 54:37 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Randle: Outside of China, there are basically no good open-source AI models
“Outside of China, there are basically no good open source models.”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 42:53 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Most competitive open-source AI foundation models are Chinese-based
“All the competitive models to the foundation models, all the open source models, bar not quite all, but most of are Chinese-based.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 19:54 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: DeepSeek's AI model is intentionally crippled inside China
“And DeepSeek is intentionally crippled in China. It's not as good as it is here. It can't search the web and it is trained on different data as near as I can tell.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 21:05 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Modern open-source AI is fake because China subsidizes training costs
“Open source is a bit of a fake because China's paying for all the trading, okay? It's not open source like a generation ago.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 0:00 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Jain: Only China and France have produced AI models outside the US
“The only Country in the world, you know, that has produced models outside of US is China. And then of course, maybe a little bit in, like, you know, France with Mistral.”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 49:58 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 20, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: US can build its own open-source AI ecosystem if China restricts access
“I do believe, in terms of talent density and resources, I do believe U.S. Will be able to build that open system by ourselves, and we should.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 21:55 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
Jul 23, 2026
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Half of OpenRouter traffic is for Chinese-created AI models
“If you look at you know, if you look at open router data, half the traffic's through China, China created models”
Jason Lemkin Jul 23, 2026 ▶ 2:40 Should the US Ban Chinese Open-Source Models | OpenRouter's Chance To Sell | Stripe Buying PayPal
Jul 23, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Lemkin: The US government will never use Chinese-built AI models
“It's difficult for me to imagine. The federal government's ever going to use a China built model at this point in the U S right.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 23, 2026 ▶ 7:33 Should the US Ban Chinese Open-Source Models | OpenRouter's Chance To Sell | Stripe Buying PayPal
Jul 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: China has built frontier AI models on existing chips
“Though for what it's worth, on whatever chips they have now, they've built frontier models.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 19:54 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Aug 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Angelopoulos: Thinking Machines' Inkling ranks #1 in US open source, behind nine Chinese models
“And within that time, they'd become the number one American open source model. But then the less generous take would be the companies existed for a year and a half. And then they've come up with, yes, the number one American open source, but there's nine Chine…”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 12:49 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Angelopoulos: China Unlikely to Ban Chinese AI Models in the US
“I don't really see them banning the use of Chinese models in the U.S. I don't think it makes sense for them.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 17:08 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 neutral
Insight
Angelopoulos: Chip export controls risk incentivizing China to build an independent hardware ecosystem
“The downside of export control is that it can incentivize them to build their own ecosystem, and then what do we do?”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 14:21 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Chinese AI labs face severe hardware constraints and rely on black-market chips
“So they're way hardware constrained over there. And they've been trying to like black market import chips because of this. And you see this in the news, right? The information just reported on this.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 14:01 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Angelopoulos: China Has Already Restricted American AI Models Domestically
“And by the way, it's worth noting that China has already restricted the use of American models within China, right? So if you look at the two by two matrix of US China restrict, not restrict, you know, like export import stuff They have already restricted the …”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 16:10 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frankel: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Eventually Be Disrupted by Chinese Competitors
“That anthropic and open AI are going to be disrupted. It's like unequivocal. Like our whole careers are about disruption. Those platforms never, ever stay forever. Where is it going to come from? Excellent chance it comes from China. It's coming.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:15:18 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 negative
Opinion
Frankel: The US underinvests in energy R&D compared to China
“If you look at the amount of money that's being spent in China on energy efficiency and energy research now, I don't think we're spending enough. And by that, that's a negative of the Trump administration is we need much more money being spent on R&D.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:17:06 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 9, 2026 negative
Opinion
Stebbings: Chinese AI Models Excel Abroad but Are Crippled Domestically by Guardrails
“The abilities of the Chinese models inside China is actually relatively limited. The guardrails are incredibly stringent and prohibitive. So it's ironic that they are incredibly superior to us. Shit domestically. Terrible.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 9, 2026 ▶ 40:44 OpenRouter CEO: Why Chinese Open Models Are Beating the US | Why Enterprises Fear OpenAI & Anthropic
Aug 17, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Didi-Kuaidi Merger Revealed 200 Employees Secretly on Both Payrolls Simultaneously
“When Uber and Didi did our deal we were the two largest players, but before there was a third player, I think it was called Quaddi, and Didi and Quaddi merged and they sort of merged the companies, they did a deal, you're combining HR systems, and they realize…”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 30:50 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 17, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Macdonald: A US Tech Company Winning Chinese Mobility Was Geopolitically Implausible
“I don't think it was plausible that we were ultimately going to be the market winner. I mean, even for geopolitical reasons alone, like the notion that a U S tech company would ultimately be the largest mobility service in China. I just don't think it's someth…”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 32:25 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 17, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Uber Burned $52 Million Weekly on Subsidies Before Exiting China
“I remember the last few weeks in the negotiation, we were burning fifty two million a week in China, just on price subsidies, because there was this heated behind the scenes battle happening To get to the best economics and the ultimate sort of surrender or u…”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 30:26 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
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