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Tim Chang

Managing Director, Mayfield Fund · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorengineeroperatorentertainer@timechange ↗LinkedIn ↗timechange.blog ↗

Tim Chang is an early-stage technology investor focusing on consumer internet, digital health and wellness, marketplaces, and gaming. Across his tenures at Mayfield Fund and Norwest Venture Partners, his prominent investments include Playdom, ngmoco, Basis, AdChina, and Moat.

7statements → 3claims → 1claims resolved → 4/5average certainty → 2.29/5average debate potential → 4.6/5argument clarity · the sources → 10said about them ↓

0 supported 1 partly supported 0 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 3 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 2 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 3 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 1 is resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Tim argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.6 / 5 directness 4.8 · coherence 5 · precision 4.6 · compression 4.2

answered every one of 23 assessed questions directly

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

250 words/min while actually speaking · 12.2 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 3,286 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 1/10
pushed back at the host 1/10
setup questions received 45%

Everything Tim Chang said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Partly held up
Chang: Startups face an upcoming Series A and Series B funding crunch
“Let's call a spade a spade, and there is no real seed two or seed three. That's basically a bridge, right? That pretty much means you haven't found proper product market fit to extend over into a proper series A, so we will see a big series A crunch series B c…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 8:46 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Insight
Chang: Small $750K seed rounds leave startups undercapitalized for Series A
“So the undercapitalized seed or series A will be the new big risk for founders. It is easy to get that first seed round because there's so many seed funds around and it's easy to do a rolling close and do, you know, a safe note and get your seven 50 K in. But …”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 9:15 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chang: Data-poor AI startups will be acqui-hired by major tech incumbents
“If startups can't train on massive proprietary data sets, then they'll never get that advantage on their algorithms. And then they're really targeted for, you know, acqui-hire by Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, et cetera.”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 13:55 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chang: Applying AI to existing industries will drive startups for a decade
“Whether it's AR, VR, my favorite AI machine learning, you know, the business plan of the next 10 years will be take machine learning AI, add it to existing industry X, disrupt the whole thing.”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 6:48 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Insight
Chang: Proprietary data and AI talent are the new oil and gold
“Proprietary data pools and AI talent are the new natural limited resources. They are the new oil and gold, if you will.”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 13:28 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Disclosure
Chang: Mayfield invested in Next Entertainment to export China's live-streaming model
“So this is a company called Next Entertainment. They are taking the China live streaming phenomena and trying to see if that playbook will apply to the rest of the world. A rare case of instead of China doing copy-paste ventures on a successful US model may be…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 23:51 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund
Disclosure
Chang: Mayfield partners review up to 800 deals to make 1-3 investments
“The normal pace for a fund like us, you know, mainstream early stage VC firm of three 50 to four hundred million, we're typically doing 10, 12 deals a year, right? So a mainline VC, we're probably seeing anywhere from 400 to 800 deals a year personally and doi…”
Tim Chang Jan 16, 2017 ▶ 7:49 20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will Be The New Limited Natural Resources? Why Now Is The Closest Thing To A New Normal with Tim Chang, Managing Director @ Mayfield Fund

The other half of the tape: Tim Chang's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 10 times in 4 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 7Rick Marini 3

Every mention by year

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
20VC: Why We Will See A Big Series B Crunch? Why Proprietary Data Pools & AI Talent Will B Jan 16, 2017 15m
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