Emil Michael

Under Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense · 1 appearance on the record.

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Emil Michael is best known as the former Chief Business Officer of Uber, where he helped raise nearly $15 billion and negotiated international agreements with Baidu and Didi Chuxing. He also served as COO of Klout, held executive roles at Tellme Networks, and leads defense technology and R&D modernization for the Pentagon.

32statements → 16claims → 15claims resolved → 47%fully supported → 4.12/5average certainty → 2.72/5average debate potential → 4.3/5argument clarity · the sources → 47said about them ↓

7 supported 4 partly supported 4 contradicted 1 not checkable as stated how the 16 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

5 predictions · 11 assertions · 5 opinions · 8 insights · 3 what ifs · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 16 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 15 are resolved, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Emil argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Emil Michael: Uber's acquisition of Otto destroyed its relationship with Google

“I'd say that the deal that Was under my watch. I didn't like it at the time, but I, you know, it got done was Uber acquiring auto, which was the autonomous car division that that gets started out of Google guys. It was, and I didn't like it for different reaso…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 28:53 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted

Emil Michael: Uber grew faster than any company in history, including Google

“We grew faster than any company in the world, both geographically And revenue wise, including Google.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 1:05:26 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1

none yet certainty 2

33% certainty 3

88% certainty 4

42% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.3 / 5 directness 4.6 · coherence 4.3 · precision 4.2 · compression 3.8

redirected or did not address 2 of 45 assessed questions (4%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

241 words/min while actually speaking · 14 um and uh per 1k words · 14.5 false starts per 1k · 31.5% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 11,856 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 4/10

pushed back at the host ▾ 4/10

setup questions received 55%

host pushback: the hardest questions Harry asked, tap to play ▶ 10:29“Can I be so bold and ask, was that the first real money that you made?” ▶ 38:50“Dave Clark started, and he, he said, you've just got to ask him, why were you taken out of Uber, and was it fair?” ▶ 45:15“Dara today, what do you honestly think of Dara's management?”

when Emil pushed back ▶ 11:48“I've got the opposite. I'm like, if I lose this, I'm gonna be okay.” ▶ 21:54“It was, it's exactly not that.”

What they said32 What others said47 Episodes1

Everything Emil Michael said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion

Emil Michael: Benchmark Capital lost its nerve ousting Travis Kalanick from Uber

“I was taken out with Travis because benchmark capital lost their nerve.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 38:57 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Opinion

Emil Michael gives Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi an 'F' grade for performance

“He was a diplomat. He was able to get the company public, but in terms of hiring talent, innovating, and succeeding from a financial standpoint, you know, it's not, it hasn't happened. It's a, it's an F, you know.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 46:32 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Emil Michael predicts Benchmark's fixed $435M fund model will fail

“That's why I think Benchmark ultimately is going to, is, has no innovation. Forget the reputation, which most entrepreneurs, if they do their deals, will find out about, but just not innovating stuck at four hundred thirty-five million for the next 10 years is…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 59:40 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Opinion

Emil Michael: Benchmark's Bill Gurley is a catastrophist who constantly fears crashes

“I believe he's a catastrophist. Catastrophists are one who the sky's always falling”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 40:25 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Partly held up

Emil Michael predicts Uber's Postmates and Careem acquisitions will be total write-downs

“I think we, instead of buying Kareem in the Middle East, Postmates, Jump Bike I think all of those will be a hundred percent write downs. Those are some of the worst acquisitions done in tech. Maybe Postmates may be the worst acquisition done tech in the last …”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 48:58 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Insight

Emil Michael: Startup board seats should have term limits after 10x returns

“So, so, or when early stage investors Get to this point where there's just a lot of paper gains. We, there should be sort of term limits on board seats, like term limit out. If I get to, you know, a 10 X return and can get you some liquidity, then you can move…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 53:00 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Emil Michael: Uber's acquisition of Otto destroyed its relationship with Google

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 28:53 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Partly held up

Emil Michael predicts tech down rounds in Q4/Q1, shutdowns in Q2/Q3

“I think we're at the end of the beginning, though, not the end of the end. The next phase is structured rounds, down rounds, like true down rounds and then sales were, unfortunately, companies sort of not making it, and I think that'll happen in Q one, you kno…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 31:23 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Insight

Emil Michael: Pay-to-play recaps never work for tech startups

“These pay to play things never work. It didn't work at bird. It didn't work at Lime.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 37:45 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

What-if

Emil Michael would have told Travis Kalanick to reject Benchmark's coercion

“Had I talked to him that day, I would have said, Travis, walk out of the room. If you want to rip up the papers in front of them and we'll get, you know, get a lawyer and whatever. This is ridiculous. You know, there's, this is unfair. This is coercive. And we…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 44:32 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Partly supported

Emil Michael: Uber's valuation under CEO Dara Khosrowshahi trails the Nasdaq

“The company's valuation Is lower today than it was when Dara took over. And even if you account for the macro environment, the Nasdaq's still up 50%, he's down 50%.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 45:22 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

What-if

Emil Michael: Uber Eats would have beaten DoorDash under original leadership

“So I would have beaten door, we would have beaten DoorDash, guaranteed. We were ahead by 30 points when Travis Night left, so letting that atrophy was not an option.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 49:40 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

What-if

Emil Michael: Uber should have forced scared early investors to take liquidity

“And so more, the thing we, I wish we did more of Uber is give more investors liquidity when they get scared. I would be like Venturex sell. Like, I'll find you someone to sell to sell, go get the second G six and the, you know, the whatever. The discovery prop…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 53:44 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Insight

Emil Michael: Loose capital cycles enabled Uber to launch Uber Eats

“For founders, it's more a good thing than a bad thing. That means that there's more capital out there. So if your business model requires more capital, you can get it. And look, people are going to say, oh my God, it's loose capital, free money, blah, blah, bl…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 56:28 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Insight

Emil Michael: VC funds must go multi-stage to survive fewer mid-tier exits

“And to win big, you've got to try to invest across multiple stages. And that's what Sequoia can do. That's what age can do. That's what rivet can do. That's what DST can do. And I think if you can't, You're just going to get, have to get lucky because there's …”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 1:00:46 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Contradicted

Emil Michael: Uber grew faster than any company in history, including Google

“We grew faster than any company in the world, both geographically And revenue wise, including Google.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 1:05:26 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Emil Michael predicts 90% of active SPACs will disband and return capital

“18 months, you're going to see dead spat. Literally, they're going to disband and give the money back to investors. Maybe 90% of them.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 1:16:10 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Opinion

Emil Michael: Business executives are not top of Silicon Valley's hierarchy

“I was a business guy, and as you know, business guys are not top of the totem pole in Silicon Valley, right, in general.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 6:52 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Insight

Emil Michael: Staying emotionally regulated gives leverage over uncentered counterparties

“I never get emotional back and that gives me power, right? It gives me power to, because I'm regulated, They're unregulated and uncentered, and that means they make more mistakes than I would. And so if you could be a shock absorber to emotion in negotiations,…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 16:57 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Insight

Emil Michael: Small talk during serious negotiations betrays naivete

“The small talk stuff is fine, but it's, it sort of betrays a little naivete, like that you care, or they care, because if there's, you're in a serious negotiation, no one cares about that. They just care about, like, what you're trying to do.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 21:57 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Emil Michael: Uber burned $100M monthly competing against Didi in China

“And we were spending A hundred million dollars a month competing there.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 26:01 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Contradicted

Benchmark turned a $33M Uber investment into $10B in four years

“Bill Gurley was on our board, lost her nerve. And the reality is there's another economic principle called loss aversion, right? If you invest thirty three million dollars in Uber and it looks like ten billion four years later, ten billion on a thirty three mi…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 39:04 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Held up

Emil Michael: Antitrust pressure will sharply reduce mid-market tech acquisitions

“There are going to be fewer tech acquisitions in this antitrust environment. Fewer, much fewer. So your outcomes for mid, middle companies like tell me are going to be farther, you know, fewer and farther between.”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 1:00:29 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Partly supported

Bill Campbell coached Steve Jobs and Google founders simultaneously

“They call them the coach, the trillion dollar coach, because he would, as you know, coach Steve Jobs, who no one in the world thought was coachable, and then he would coach Larry Page and Eric Schmidt and Sergey at Google on two of the most important companies…”

Emil Michael Oct 25, 2022 ▶ 3:22 Emil Michael: How I Negotiated the $4B Uber-China Deal, Why DoorDash Caught Up to Uber | 20VC #941 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 8statements(8 left)

The other half of the tape: Emil Michael's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 42 times in 9 episodes on 20VC. 5 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 24 Shervin Pishevar 8 Rory O'Driscoll 4 Rafael Ilishayev 4 Scott Gorlick 1 Fritz Lanman 1

Statements about Emil Michael, by other people (5)

Opinion

Pishevar: Firing Kalanick from Uber was tech's worst mistake since Jobs

“And so they got two, two of the greatest minds in Silicon Valley were taken out of the company. This is the greatest value destruction that's happened since firing Steve Jobs at Apple. And it was a massive mistake.”

Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 48:12 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Pishevar: Uber nearly acquired Lyft, but Lyft demanded too much ownership

“Andreessen, having lost the Uber deal, ended up doing the Lyft deal, and we had, you know, Travis and Emil, you know, they were close to acquiring it acquiring Lyft which, you know but they wanted too much ownership so that luckily didn't work out”

Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 20:35 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Pishevar: Kalanick and Michael initiated SoftBank's $12B Uber deal

“So the SoftBank conversations, ironically, Travis and Emil started those conversations, the ultimate twelve billion dollar investment from SoftBank Vision Fund.”

Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 47:48 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Pishevar: Emil Michael architected Uber's $15B fundraising efforts

“He architected the fifteen billion dollar raise he had a massive impact on the trajectory of Uber, and he became really Travis's right hand and sparring partner in building, building Uber.”

Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 25:46 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Pishevar: Uber's Series D valuation was negotiated up to $17B from $10B

“So that Series D, like a year after the Series C, which Google and TPG did, that was at three billion. This was at seventeen billion, and we started off at 10. So, Emil was able to negotiate from, like, 10, eleven billion valuation to 17, because there was so …”

Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 31:04 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings