The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,128 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pysh: Bitcoin will probably peak between $200,000 and $300,000
“It's going to go straight through that number. It's probably going to go to two to 300,000.”
Pompliano: Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021
“I think that from now where we're recording this in April of 2020, I think that by the end of 2021, we'll see Bitcoin hit a 100,000 dollar price point”
Microsoft screws channel partners by cutting renewal commissions to 5%
“Microsoft screws their channel program partners. What do they do? They give them a nice 30% commission on the first year, and a nice five percent commission on the second year when the customer renews.”
Martin: Bootstrapped SaaS Grows 6.7% Faster Than VC-Backed Past $10M ARR
“Another statistic that I saw was SaaS median growth rate over ten million ARR is 24%, so growth goes down obviously a little bit as you're scaling the organization.
However, if you split out venture-backed companies, Bootstrapped actually grows 6.7% faster
Tha…”
Lunawat: Large PE Funds Do Not Dominate U.S. Residential Market
“Even then, if you look at like the total volume of residential sales across the U S that's still a fraction of the total market. So to say that, you know, larger state private equity funds are kind of dominating the U S home residential market, I think would b…”
Singh: Non-BTC/ETH Top 10 Cryptos Will Be Replaced Within Two Years
“So I personally, my belief is that everyone in the top 10 maybe bar ETH and Bitcoin will be switched out in the next 12 to 24 months.”
Lynn: Majority of created art has outperformed the S&P 500
“At least for the majority of art created, it's outperformed the S&P.”
Santens: One week of Fed liquidity could fund a $2,000 monthly UBI
“We could actually be paying for a 2000 dollar a month fully universal basic income for the amount of money that the, in, in, in the Fed is doing in one week.”
Jonathan Herzog claims SEO disinformation generated 100,000 false headlines post-launch
“Immediately thereafter, a targeted Systematic disinformation campaign was launched, where if you Google my name, Jonathan Herzog, on a computer and hit the news tab, you will see 100,000 of false headlines improperly indexed through SEO manipulation to myself,…”
Jeff Booth: Technology Will Prevent Net Global Job Growth
“There's not going to be net global job gain globally. Right. Through, through what's happening with technology.”
Gertler: ShareRoot IPO'd at $10.5M USD valuation on $700 MRR
“We went public in the early days of January of 2016, so two and a half years ago. What was our MRR at the time? MRR was at about 700 dollars when we went public. Market cap at the time was thirteen million Australian. Let's just, for simplicity purposes, call …”
Michael Litt claims Box artificially lowers CAC by filing hosting under COGS
“Historically, actually, and this may be an interesting backtrack is, is Box, right? When they host someone's files for free, right? In my opinion, that's a customer acquisition cost because you're paying for that content, but you know, they file that away as a…”
Rampton: Pixloo patent covered 360-degree photos and was widely infringed
“Yeah, so there was a technology, primarily we owned a patent. Or, I mean, that was probably our biggest asset was we owned a patent where if you take a camera and spin it 360 degrees. We own that patent. So pretty much. Yeah. Any photographer in the world has …”
Public liquid asset returns often match or beat venture capital
“There's all kinds of academic studies that the returns are that are very comparable to the private equity venture in many cases, even better.”
Puri: Blab's audience will be larger than any cable TV network
“And so what we're going to do is we're going to gather the biggest audience we can. And I believe that that will end up being bigger than Any cable TV network out there.”
McKeefery and his wife retained 100% equity in Reviews.io until sale
“100%, yeah. I had this, you know, I, there was a few people in the company who would help me along the way, and they got really big earn outs, but it was only really from me saying, hey, I want to make sure you get a big earn out out of this rather than it bei…”
Singh: Median Public Software Stock Down 21% Since 2018
“The median software company that's public is down 21% over the last six years, from 2018 to now.”
Novoselsky: 65% of B2B Searches Start on Social, Not Google
“Here's the stat that's really alarming, is 65% of the B to B search starts on social, not on Google.”
Founders can multiply $10M QSBS exemptions using multiple irrevocable trusts
“And so for federal taxes, if you want to save more money on federal taxes, what you do is you create a revocable trust and you gift your shares to your children or to your spouse or to your relative, your brother. And each of those trusts that you create gets …”
SMB SaaS spending growth surpassed enterprise growth in late 2023
“The interesting thing happened Q-three last year. So, around Web Summit last year, we gave a State of the Union on, on SaaS. And we said, it's interesting. The small buyers come back. The small buyers started outperforming the big buyers for the first time in …”
Bhattacharya: Involve.ai can reach $20M ARR without raising more capital
“We don't think we would need to raise another round, at least in the near future to keep growing. And we feel we can get to ten million, even twenty million in ARR very quickly without even raising extra capital.”
Donovan: Rule of 40 had zero correlation with SaaS multiples before Q2 2022
“So if you just use rule of 40 where you composite, you smoosh growth and efficiency together, until Q two of last year, there was actually no correlation. So, like, I would have called total BS on using rule of 40 by itself before Q two of last year. It just w…”
Martin: Remote workers are on average 13% more productive than on-premise peers
“On average, remote workers are 13% more productive than their on premise counterparts.”
Carpel: Founders can use Founderpath debt to buy personal real estate
“Unlock the wealth, take the money, and put that into other things. Again, the S&P 500 a commercial building, buy a house for your mom, buy a house for yourself all permissible and all doable with this product.”
EstateSpace secured $1M in SBA COVID relief despite mass layoffs
“COVID, it gave us almost a million dollars in free money, so We had a lot of people pre-COVID. We let them all go, but the way that they looked, the SBA looked at that was that, okay, they counted us for the 2018, 2019 time when we had a lot of employees, so w…”
A top expense app's 'smart scanning' was secretly powered by offshore humans
“Or there's another company, a very popular expense company that allows employees to expense receipts. And they would have a feature called a smart scanning feature where you could take a picture of the receipt and then it would extract. But that wasn't a smart…”
BNPL Network Take Rates Fall Far Below 3% to 5%
“No, it's certainly not three to five percent, right? ... It's much less, right? If you look on the payment space, right? When a merchant is typically paying in the U S somewhere between 1.6 to A critical transaction, right? This cost would include the issuing …”
Total India and SE Asia MarTech market is only $150M to $200M
“So the challenge for us is that the Indian market is actually quite small, even though the customer base is very large companies don't pay a lot of money yet. So the email market plus the martech business put together would probably be just about 150 odd milli…”
Crashlytics intentionally broke developer builds to force viral team adoption
“And when a developer, sorry, when a developer started using it, they actually put it in their app and we broke their build in the nicest way possible so that every other engineer on their team would find out about Crashlytics and then start using it.”
Miles: Salad is the world's fourth largest supercomputer
“We're now the world's fourth largest supercomputer.”
Miles: Salad's compute costs one-fifth of AWS spot instances
“The cost of our compute is around one fifth, again, per teraflop per hour of an AWS spot instance.”
SecurityScorecard: Valuation will triple or quadruple within 18 to 24 months
“We believe that within the next. 18 to 24 months, again, we're going to triple or quadruple evaluation of a company or more.”
O'Shull: Derive is the only fleet software writing to vehicle ECUs
“And that's really the secret sauce in the enterprise fleet management space. Nobody's doing that. Everybody's reading from the ECU to do telematics and all that kind of stuff. Nobody is really writing back to it.”
Svizovich: Referizer Will Go Public Within Five Years
“A hundred employees to get a rich financial freedom in five years when you go public.”
Holmes: Resonant could reach $100M revenue by 2025 to 2026
“We're thinking that the opportunity set is in the 20, 25, 20, 26 range is where those opportunities will present themselves as the unit volumes continue to expand and the number of devices continue to expand over the course of the next several years.”
Competitor think-cell generates over $100 million in annual revenue
“Sure let's say I had some other data points which reconfirmed my initial assumption, so I'm pretty confident that they're making over a hundred million a year, actually way over that.”
Berry: ConvertKit is far ahead of Mailchimp's eight-year growth curve
“When I look at the curve that I'm on with ConvertKit, and if, and the curve that MailChimp did, if we were to overlay those two, ConvertKit is far ahead. Like if we put the start date of the two of them, ConvertKit is far ahead on that curve than MailChimp was…”
McKelvey: Apple kicked VeriFone out of Apple Stores after Square attack
“He ended up upsetting Apple, and Apple kicked them out of the Apple store.”
Crowley: A single commercial EV can earn $7,000 annually supporting grids
“And then the final one, which is the real secret sauce, is a vehicle can, you can get paid about 7000 bucks a year For the vehicle supporting the grid, just one vehicle.”
Used car demand will jump over the next two quarters
“So my hunch is that demand for used cars over the next couple of quarters is going to jump because of everything that's kind of going on.”
Jackson: One-Third of Uber Drivers Live at or Below Poverty Line
“Meanwhile, a third of all Uber drivers live at or below the poverty line.”
Roy: A 10% rise in gender equity drives 1-2% revenue growth
“We actually did research across 4000 companies in 29 countries, and what we found was that for every 10% increase in gender equity in companies, there's a one to two percent increase in revenue.”
Basic income trials show recipients invest in education and family care
“And there is literally no evidence to support that. All the evidence from all the basic income trials that have ever been run are that people like, wow, I can take better care of myself. I can invest in education. I can take better care of my family. Of my fri…”
Latka: ClearBank Revenue Financing Carries an Effective APR of 24%
“So a deal from ClearBank is going to look something like one X your monthly revenues on a two month Term with an interest rate of two percent per month, right? I mean, and that's on the bottom side. That's a 24% APR essentially. That's expensive.”
Santens: A $1,000 monthly UBI for US citizens costs $3 trillion gross
“So if you do that, and then if you're going to do a thousand dollars per month per person, and you're going to go to citizens in the United States, then it's a little over three trillion dollars. That's the gross cost.”
Booth: The US Dollar Will Decline Once the Liquidity Crisis Ends
“Right now the US dollar is going up in value because governments around are all trying to get cash. Every company is trying to get cash and the US currency underlies 80% of world trade. It's the only reason it's going up in value right now. It will go down on …”