why aren't all 2,923 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Microsoft screws channel partners by cutting renewal commissions to 5%
“Microsoft screws their channel program partners. What do they do? They give them a nice 30% commission on the first year, and a nice five percent commission on the second year when the customer renews.”
Assertion Contradicted
Martin: Bootstrapped SaaS Grows 6.7% Faster Than VC-Backed Past $10M ARR
“Another statistic that I saw was SaaS median growth rate over ten million ARR is 24%, so growth goes down obviously a little bit as you're scaling the organization.
However, if you split out venture-backed companies, Bootstrapped actually grows 6.7% faster
Tha…”
Assertion Supported
Lunawat: Large PE Funds Do Not Dominate U.S. Residential Market
“Even then, if you look at like the total volume of residential sales across the U S that's still a fraction of the total market. So to say that, you know, larger state private equity funds are kind of dominating the U S home residential market, I think would b…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lynn: Majority of created art has outperformed the S&P 500
“At least for the majority of art created, it's outperformed the S&P.”
Assertion Supported
Santens: One week of Fed liquidity could fund a $2,000 monthly UBI
“We could actually be paying for a 2000 dollar a month fully universal basic income for the amount of money that the, in, in, in the Fed is doing in one week.”
Assertion Contradicted
Jonathan Herzog claims SEO disinformation generated 100,000 false headlines post-launch
“Immediately thereafter, a targeted Systematic disinformation campaign was launched, where if you Google my name, Jonathan Herzog, on a computer and hit the news tab, you will see 100,000 of false headlines improperly indexed through SEO manipulation to myself,…”
Assertion Supported
Gertler: ShareRoot IPO'd at $10.5M USD valuation on $700 MRR
“We went public in the early days of January of 2016, so two and a half years ago. What was our MRR at the time? MRR was at about 700 dollars when we went public. Market cap at the time was thirteen million Australian. Let's just, for simplicity purposes, call …”
Assertion Contradicted
Michael Litt claims Box artificially lowers CAC by filing hosting under COGS
“Historically, actually, and this may be an interesting backtrack is, is Box, right? When they host someone's files for free, right? In my opinion, that's a customer acquisition cost because you're paying for that content, but you know, they file that away as a…”
Assertion Contradicted
Rampton: Pixloo patent covered 360-degree photos and was widely infringed
“Yeah, so there was a technology, primarily we owned a patent. Or, I mean, that was probably our biggest asset was we owned a patent where if you take a camera and spin it 360 degrees. We own that patent. So pretty much. Yeah. Any photographer in the world has …”
Assertion Supported
Public liquid asset returns often match or beat venture capital
“There's all kinds of academic studies that the returns are that are very comparable to the private equity venture in many cases, even better.”
Assertion Supported
McKeefery and his wife retained 100% equity in Reviews.io until sale
“100%, yeah. I had this, you know, I, there was a few people in the company who would help me along the way, and they got really big earn outs, but it was only really from me saying, hey, I want to make sure you get a big earn out out of this rather than it bei…”
Assertion Partly supported
Singh: Median Public Software Stock Down 21% Since 2018
“The median software company that's public is down 21% over the last six years, from 2018 to now.”
Assertion Contradicted
Novoselsky: 65% of B2B Searches Start on Social, Not Google
“Here's the stat that's really alarming, is 65% of the B to B search starts on social, not on Google.”
Assertion Supported
Founders can multiply $10M QSBS exemptions using multiple irrevocable trusts
“And so for federal taxes, if you want to save more money on federal taxes, what you do is you create a revocable trust and you gift your shares to your children or to your spouse or to your relative, your brother. And each of those trusts that you create gets …”
Assertion Supported
SMB SaaS spending growth surpassed enterprise growth in late 2023
“The interesting thing happened Q-three last year. So, around Web Summit last year, we gave a State of the Union on, on SaaS. And we said, it's interesting. The small buyers come back. The small buyers started outperforming the big buyers for the first time in …”
Assertion Partly supported
Donovan: Rule of 40 had zero correlation with SaaS multiples before Q2 2022
“So if you just use rule of 40 where you composite, you smoosh growth and efficiency together, until Q two of last year, there was actually no correlation. So, like, I would have called total BS on using rule of 40 by itself before Q two of last year. It just w…”
Assertion Partly supported
Martin: Remote workers are on average 13% more productive than on-premise peers
“On average, remote workers are 13% more productive than their on premise counterparts.”
Assertion Supported
Carpel: Founders can use Founderpath debt to buy personal real estate
“Unlock the wealth, take the money, and put that into other things. Again, the S&P 500 a commercial building, buy a house for your mom, buy a house for yourself all permissible and all doable with this product.”
Assertion Partly supported
EstateSpace secured $1M in SBA COVID relief despite mass layoffs
“COVID, it gave us almost a million dollars in free money, so We had a lot of people pre-COVID. We let them all go, but the way that they looked, the SBA looked at that was that, okay, they counted us for the 2018, 2019 time when we had a lot of employees, so w…”
Assertion Supported
A top expense app's 'smart scanning' was secretly powered by offshore humans
“Or there's another company, a very popular expense company that allows employees to expense receipts. And they would have a feature called a smart scanning feature where you could take a picture of the receipt and then it would extract. But that wasn't a smart…”
Assertion Supported
BNPL Network Take Rates Fall Far Below 3% to 5%
“No, it's certainly not three to five percent, right? ... It's much less, right? If you look on the payment space, right? When a merchant is typically paying in the U S somewhere between 1.6 to A critical transaction, right? This cost would include the issuing …”
Assertion Contradicted
Total India and SE Asia MarTech market is only $150M to $200M
“So the challenge for us is that the Indian market is actually quite small, even though the customer base is very large companies don't pay a lot of money yet. So the email market plus the martech business put together would probably be just about 150 odd milli…”
Assertion Supported
Crashlytics intentionally broke developer builds to force viral team adoption
“And when a developer, sorry, when a developer started using it, they actually put it in their app and we broke their build in the nicest way possible so that every other engineer on their team would find out about Crashlytics and then start using it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Miles: Salad is the world's fourth largest supercomputer
“We're now the world's fourth largest supercomputer.”
Assertion Supported
Miles: Salad's compute costs one-fifth of AWS spot instances
“The cost of our compute is around one fifth, again, per teraflop per hour of an AWS spot instance.”
Assertion Contradicted
O'Shull: Derive is the only fleet software writing to vehicle ECUs
“And that's really the secret sauce in the enterprise fleet management space. Nobody's doing that. Everybody's reading from the ECU to do telematics and all that kind of stuff. Nobody is really writing back to it.”
Assertion Supported
Competitor think-cell generates over $100 million in annual revenue
“Sure let's say I had some other data points which reconfirmed my initial assumption, so I'm pretty confident that they're making over a hundred million a year, actually way over that.”
Assertion Supported
Berry: ConvertKit is far ahead of Mailchimp's eight-year growth curve
“When I look at the curve that I'm on with ConvertKit, and if, and the curve that MailChimp did, if we were to overlay those two, ConvertKit is far ahead. Like if we put the start date of the two of them, ConvertKit is far ahead on that curve than MailChimp was…”
Assertion Contradicted
McKelvey: Apple kicked VeriFone out of Apple Stores after Square attack
“He ended up upsetting Apple, and Apple kicked them out of the Apple store.”
Assertion Supported
Crowley: A single commercial EV can earn $7,000 annually supporting grids
“And then the final one, which is the real secret sauce, is a vehicle can, you can get paid about 7000 bucks a year For the vehicle supporting the grid, just one vehicle.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jackson: One-Third of Uber Drivers Live at or Below Poverty Line
“Meanwhile, a third of all Uber drivers live at or below the poverty line.”
Assertion Supported
Roy: A 10% rise in gender equity drives 1-2% revenue growth
“We actually did research across 4000 companies in 29 countries, and what we found was that for every 10% increase in gender equity in companies, there's a one to two percent increase in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Basic income trials show recipients invest in education and family care
“And there is literally no evidence to support that. All the evidence from all the basic income trials that have ever been run are that people like, wow, I can take better care of myself. I can invest in education. I can take better care of my family. Of my fri…”
Assertion Supported
Latka: ClearBank Revenue Financing Carries an Effective APR of 24%
“So a deal from ClearBank is going to look something like one X your monthly revenues on a two month Term with an interest rate of two percent per month, right? I mean, and that's on the bottom side. That's a 24% APR essentially. That's expensive.”
Assertion Supported
Santens: A $1,000 monthly UBI for US citizens costs $3 trillion gross
“So if you do that, and then if you're going to do a thousand dollars per month per person, and you're going to go to citizens in the United States, then it's a little over three trillion dollars. That's the gross cost.”
Assertion Supported
Sole Investor Graham Wood Currently Owns 100% of Shorthand
“No, he owns, so, so at the moment, he owns actually the whole company.”
Assertion Supported
Salesforce churns 3% to 9% of annual revenue, estimates John Lee
“Salesforce is churning anywhere from three to nine percent of the revenue a year on a twelve billion dollar business.”
Assertion Supported
Osetek: Intermediaries Take 50% to 70% of Programmatic Ad Dollars
“So, you know, across the, what I call across the Luma scape, when you go from the brand all the way to the other end of the spectrum, the publisher, there's DSPs, SSPs, there's like six intermediaries involved, and they're all taking a cut where a couple of di…”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin launched with zero pre-mine or founder token allocation
“Well, I created Litecoin, but I didn't, like, pre-mine coins. I didn't create coins for myself, right? I had to mine the Litecoins or buy the Litecoins off exchange just like anyone else.”
Assertion Supported
Kwon: Tendermint Secures Distributed Ledgers Without Energy-Intensive Mining
“Tendermint, Tendermint is a replacement. It's an alternative to proof of work. It's a way to have a secure distributed ledger without having to Burn energy to try to win a lottery ticket.”
Assertion Supported
Austin: Branch lured Pinterest, Airbnb, and Etsy from Yozio, forcing its shutdown
“There was a company in our space when we first started that actually had Pinterest, Airbnb, and Etsy using them. When we had just launched literally brand new, super buggy product within a year and a half, all those companies were using us and that company had…”
Assertion Supported
Di Iorio: Ether was never meant to be a coin or currency
“It was never meant as a coin or as a currency. It was meant as a fuel or product to incentivize people to contribute resources into the network.”
Assertion Supported
Kineshanko: Blockchain activity can be traced to identify specific users
“Well, you can actually track activity on the blockchain quite nicely because it's all open source.
So it's a bit tricky to figure out who's doing what, because people can have, you know, you or I could create wallets, numerous wallets and do stuff with those.…”
Assertion Supported
Le Moal: Some Indian startups burn $200M per year
“We are talking, you know, a couple of hundred millions a year.”
Assertion Supported
Epstein: Sentient runs the first fully AI-traded hedge fund
“One of Senian's products through a subsidiary called Senian Investment Management is a hedge fund that is, we think the first Fully AI-traded hedge fund.”
Assertion Supported
Chen: Kaiser's 52% virtual visit metric includes web portal logins
“Turned out that It's a little bit not quite true, right? Most people say, say, do you mean like, 52% of Kaiser Permanente visitors are not on telemedicine? No. What they mean is, every time you're going to, ah, let's say, a webpage, a patient portal, request s…”
Assertion Supported
Sykes: John McAfee's penny stock tanked 50% under an SEC investigation
“His penny stock has also gone from 30 cents to four dollars a share, and it just tanked 50% in the past two days now that he's under SEC investigation.”
Assertion Contradicted
Eisenberg: Nexar covered more road mileage in 9 months than Google Street View
“We've already covered in, you know, like nine months more mileage than Google Street View has in all its existence.”