The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,128 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pompliano: COVID-19 mortality rates will be much lower in retrospect
“One of the things that I personally think we're not going to get this for probably three to five years, but we're going to look back three to five years from now. We're going to say the death rates that were originally thought are going to be nowhere near wher…”
Arison: Used car demand will jump as consumers avoid rideshare
“And my guess is that people are also going to try to avoid transportation and avoid ride sharing, right? So my hunch is that demand for used cars over the next couple of quarters is going to jump because of everything that's kind of going on.”
Lagrave: Netflix will eventually have to adopt advertising for monetization
“We believe that Netflix will need to address a monetization fear through advertising at some point, but that's up to the good folks at Netflix.”
Sole Investor Graham Wood Currently Owns 100% of Shorthand
“No, he owns, so, so at the moment, he owns actually the whole company.”
Programmatic advertising will dominate the recruitment ad market within five years
“Programmatic is going to own that market in five years. And it's companies like ours and ICIMS and others that are going to help customers do that.”
Salesforce churns 3% to 9% of annual revenue, estimates John Lee
“Salesforce is churning anywhere from three to nine percent of the revenue a year on a twelve billion dollar business.”
Osetek: Intermediaries Take 50% to 70% of Programmatic Ad Dollars
“So, you know, across the, what I call across the Luma scape, when you go from the brand all the way to the other end of the spectrum, the publisher, there's DSPs, SSPs, there's like six intermediaries involved, and they're all taking a cut where a couple of di…”
Lee: Litecoin launched with zero pre-mine or founder token allocation
“Well, I created Litecoin, but I didn't, like, pre-mine coins. I didn't create coins for myself, right? I had to mine the Litecoins or buy the Litecoins off exchange just like anyone else.”
Raanani: Chorus.ai will become a billion-dollar company in 5-7 years
“Is that there's a billion dollar enterprise value company five to seven years from now, that's ours to lose.”
Kwon: Tendermint Secures Distributed Ledgers Without Energy-Intensive Mining
“Tendermint, Tendermint is a replacement. It's an alternative to proof of work. It's a way to have a secure distributed ledger without having to Burn energy to try to win a lottery ticket.”
Antonopoulos: Over 90% of ICOs will fail
“More than 90% of these ICOs will fail. That's what I foresee. I mean, it's really obvious.”
Austin: Branch lured Pinterest, Airbnb, and Etsy from Yozio, forcing its shutdown
“There was a company in our space when we first started that actually had Pinterest, Airbnb, and Etsy using them. When we had just launched literally brand new, super buggy product within a year and a half, all those companies were using us and that company had…”
Sholom: GameCredits will acquire tens of millions of Indian users in 2017
“And then the marketing efforts that we will run because we're going to acquire Already this year, tens of millions of users in India.”
Di Iorio: Ether was never meant to be a coin or currency
“It was never meant as a coin or as a currency. It was meant as a fuel or product to incentivize people to contribute resources into the network.”
Kineshanko: Blockchain activity can be traced to identify specific users
“Well, you can actually track activity on the blockchain quite nicely because it's all open source.
So it's a bit tricky to figure out who's doing what, because people can have, you know, you or I could create wallets, numerous wallets and do stuff with those.…”
Le Moal: Payment processing could become free in a few years
“All the rest, you could really imagine that in a few years, the payment itself, the processing itself will be free.”
Le Moal: Some Indian startups burn $200M per year
“We are talking, you know, a couple of hundred millions a year.”
Epstein: Sentient runs the first fully AI-traded hedge fund
“One of Senian's products through a subsidiary called Senian Investment Management is a hedge fund that is, we think the first Fully AI-traded hedge fund.”
Chen: Kaiser's 52% virtual visit metric includes web portal logins
“Turned out that It's a little bit not quite true, right? Most people say, say, do you mean like, 52% of Kaiser Permanente visitors are not on telemedicine? No. What they mean is, every time you're going to, ah, let's say, a webpage, a patient portal, request s…”
Sykes: John McAfee's penny stock tanked 50% under an SEC investigation
“His penny stock has also gone from 30 cents to four dollars a share, and it just tanked 50% in the past two days now that he's under SEC investigation.”
Latka predicts he will take a company public by age 30
“I, Andrew, I want your listeners to know this. It's recorded. I'm taking company public by the time I turn 30.”
Eisenberg: Nexar covered more road mileage in 9 months than Google Street View
“We've already covered in, you know, like nine months more mileage than Google Street View has in all its existence.”
Walch: Apple will never release granular playback drop-off data
“And I don't see Apple ever releasing out the information that we would need to get on that playback and where it leaves.”
Rob Walch: Median podcast episode receives approximately 150 downloads after 30 days
“When we look at the median number of where shows fall, it's about a hundred and fifties, the median. That means I think last week, last month was a 156 or just think, I think it was.”
Mohit Aron claims he invented the concept of hyper-convergence at Nutanix
“I left Aster in 2009, and I actually founded the infrastructure company Nutanix in 2009, September 2009, and I was there with Nutanix for a little more than three years, and I was the brains behind the concept of hyperconvergence, which has kind of taken over …”
Ford sells 200,000 cars a month; Tesla sells 30,000 a year
“Ford sells 200,000 vehicles in a month. And Tesla will sell about 30,000 this year.”
Harry Campbell: Rideshare drivers earn roughly 50% less than at launch
“Drivers are making probably 50% less than they were when they first started.”
Kershenbaum predicts Anthropic's Claude will avoid targeting niche month-end accounting workflows
“Can Claude focus on, on that specific use case and try to wage war? Yeah, I think it's highly unlikely though for them to do so.”
Malinan: Shopify caps videos at full HD and lacks adaptive delivery
“Shopify limits your videos to full HD. You cannot have a video which is higher resolution than that. Also, they kill the quality. They don't have the adaptive delivery and just the overall performance is, is just terrible.”
Singh: PAR Is Second-Best Performing Sub-$10B Public Software Stock
“In that sort of sub-ten billion dollar software, we're the best performer sans one company over the last one, three, five years.”
SaaS multiples still value growth at three times more than profit
“In today's environment, the actual multiple is five to six times, and that's provided that you have growth. So even though we're moving away from a growth at any cost world to a world where efficiency is prized, the reality is that growth is still worth three …”
Jasper AI scaled to $50M ARR in 12 months with six employees
“Zero to fifty million ARR with like an island of six people in 12 months.”
Novoselsky: 75% of buyers will be Millennials or Gen Z by 2025
“By next year, literally in three months, 75% of all buyers will be either Millennials or Gen Z.”
Chesseri: South Dakota trusts eliminate state income and capital gains taxes
“If those shares were held in a South Dakota trust in South Dakota, there is no state taxes for income or cap gains. So you save 1.3 million dollars right out of the gate just by having your trust in South Dakota.”
Sam Jacobs: Valuation Premium of Growth over Free Cash Flow Fell to 3-to-1
“It used to be growth at any cost, which means that growth really was worth almost, not infinitely more, but probably maybe 15 to 20 times what Free cash flow was worth today. We're in a world where growth is still more valuable than free cash flow, but only th…”
Singh: PAR Technology founders invented the point-of-sale terminal in 1978
“In 1978, our founders invented the point of sale terminal.”
Singh: US restaurant unit growth now comes from stadiums and EV stations
“Restaurants are no longer growing in the United States, right? It's like we're over retail, we're over restaurant. And so the growth of the units of restaurants is now in stadiums. It's in convenience stores. EV charging stations. It's not going to be the net …”
Survey: 70% of developers want AI tools, but only 40% trust them
“When we went and did a bunch of, ah, surveys, ah, in our user base, a 100,000 people responded and said, you know, 70% of them wanted to use AI tools for software development or for something related to technology development, but only 40% of them trusted what…”
Ahrefs grew past $100M revenue without a sales team
“Fun fact, we grew, I'll show you the numbers in a minute, we're over a hundred million dollars. We basically used word of mouth, blogs, and YouTube. We didn't have a sales team till we hit about a hundred million dollars.”
Ahrefs study found 96.5% of web content gets zero search traffic
“So a lot of content doesn't get any traffic. This is from one of our own studies. On the, on 96 and a half percent, no traffic.”
Martin: Y Combinator startup cohort shifted from 16% to 82% remote post-COVID
“Pre-COVID, Y Combinator saw that 16% of their startups were started remotely. Today, this cohort, 82% are partially or fully remote.”
Schwartz: LendingClub operates as consumer lead generation, not direct business funding
“So Lending Club is really not a funder.
It's a lot of them are like kind of lead gen.
So you're, they're gathering, they're telling you they're doing it, and then they send it out.
But Lending Club is not really a business funding.
They do it more personal stu…”
Payne: Security budgets grew 5% in 2023 vs historical 30-35%
“I think the data showing right now, security budgets are growing about five percent in 20, 23. And, you know, historically over the last 10 years, security budgets grow 30 to 35%.”
Chili Piper cuts headcount by one-third, from 250 to 170
“So we cut a third of the company. So we went from two 50 to one 70”