The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 979 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Drift security breach leaked Salesforce data from Cloudflare and Zscaler
“Poor drift, which sales off bot and Clary bot had a massive security breach and leaked cloudflare security data Z scalers, I mean, Salesforce data, cloudflare, Salesforce data, Z scalers, Salesforce data, tons of the cloud leader Salesforce data was all leaked…”
Lemkin: Dropbox maxed out its global market with 18.2M paid customers
“And he has 18.2 million paid customers now, but you know what it turns out? That's the whole world for him. Like it was crazy. And then for it's 18.2, because he literally has maxed out the global market share for what he has.”
Awotona: Calendly has never cut free tier features since 2014
“Besides then, I don't think we've ever taken anything away from the free plan. Yeah, I think we've all. Yeah, I don't think we've ever taken anything away from the free plan. We've only made the free plan more generous. I'm sure somebody will test my memory, b…”
Biestman: ServiceTitan actively prepared for a Q1 or Q2 2022 IPO
“We were actually in the process of trying to take the company public. In Q one or Q two of 20, 22.”
LLM Output Quality Deteriorates at Million-Token Context Sizes
“They claim million tokens, ten million tokens. When you start going up to that size of input. The quality deteriorates on the output”
Lemkin: Cloud security company Wiz sells entirely through partners
“If your ecosystem is in any way partner-driven, and you'll see, if you go super, if you go, like, into security or enterprise, sometimes it's a hundred percent. Wiz is all partners.”
Rangan: 40% of HubSpot's ARR is consistently influenced by partners
“And for HubSpot, 40% of our ARR Has been influenced by partners. That is, either they are bringing us leads or they are co-selling with our sales team and helping them close. Those two are what we call as influenced. And if there are HubSpot partners here, tha…”
Lemkin: Top 10% of Sales Reps Close 65% of Deals (Clari Data)
“Clary just published this data. Maybe you saw it too, right? I always knew this, but man, this is stark. Clary's, Clary, I think it was like a million opportunities or something. The top 10% of reps close 65% of deals.”
Lemkin: Contact center vendors saw 20% seat reductions in one year
“If you look at pure play contact center vendors, right, a lot of them have seen 20% seat reductions in a year due to AI. 20% across the board, right?”
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Choi: Share price appreciation strongly correlates with cumulative dollar growth
“On the left here, we see a regression that charts the share price depreciation from IPO to today versus how much revenue has increased in dollar amounts from IPO to today. And you'll see here that the R spread value is, 0.74, which is fight high and applying a…”
Lemkin: AI investments represent the majority of venture capital in 2025
“The majority of investing, if 44% in 2024, already the majority in 2025 is into AI and AI native investments.”
Lemkin: Per-seat pricing was under 50% of SaaS revenue historically
“And it turns out going back to the beginning per seat was less than 50% of the SaaS revenue. When you add in API pricing, other pricing, just because we think everyone talks about blah, blah, blah, Salesforce, it doesn't mean it's most of software. And so it's…”
Lemkin: HubSpot is currently not charging customers for AI agents
“When I talked with Brian Halligan the other day, I didn't realize Dharmesh right now HubSpot isn't charging for their agents.”
Lemkin: HubSpot Saw Word-of-Mouth as Top Customer Source Up to $1B
“Word of mouth is ultimately the only way you can build a great product in SaaS. HubSpot had a slide they used to put in their investor decks until a million, a billion in revenue. Go to an older SaaS store post for five interesting learnings for HubSpot to a b…”
Lemkin: Rippling CEO Parker Conrad Actively Recruits Failed Founders for Leadership
“Parker Conrad loves to hire failed founders to run his divisions. Like his little five products, he gets a failed or a modestly successful founder because they have a reason, right?”
Lemkin: Dialpad Grew From $200M to $300M ARR on AI Boost
“Dialpad went from two hundred million last year to already three hundred million AR this year on an AI boost.”
Tunguz: 81% of peak venture dollars came from non-traditional VCs
“US venture funding has gone from eight to 300 over 15 years. It's now falling to about a 150 because 81% of the dollars invested in venture capital at the height of the boom came from non-traditional venture capital firms who are all very likely to leave.”
Tunguz: Hybrid seat-and-usage pricing yields 3x net dollar retention growth
“If you're using a combination pricing model, in other words, seats plus usage, three X the growth in that dollar retention as somebody who's using any other form of pricing.”
BILL maintains an 86% customer logo retention rate
“So what we've shared is that we're at 86% logo retention.”
Lemkin: Only three SaaS companies have IPO'd since 2021
“If we look at the SaaS IPOs we've had, and there's only been three since twenty-twenty-one, only three IPOs, all time low.”
Lemkin: Over 70% of Monday.com customers are non-tech
“Over 70% of Monday's customers are not tech. They're selling to churches and normal businesses. They're growing 34% in a billion in AR, while Asana, which mostly sells to tech, if you see on the right, is only growing 10%.”
Dholakia: Dario Amodei Revealed Model Coding Abilities Were Emergent, Not Designed
“Dario said on that panel, That they discovered that the models could code. Like it wasn't a design requirement. It wasn't an intentional, the model. It had the capability. It figured out how to do it.”
Padelford: US independent pizzerias generate $50B in annual order flow
“In those pizzerias is fifty billion dollars a year worth of order flow and spend. So when people are like, oh, pizza can't be that big of a market, that's fifty billion dollars worth of TAM in a single vertical in the United States alone.”
Lemkin: The Current Tech IPO Bar Is $200M ARR Growing 40%
“To IPO today, you've got to be doing at least two hundred million growing at least 40%.”
Lemkin: UiPath Grew 20% While Adding Zero Net New Enterprise Customers
“Last quarter UiPath. Its growth crashed, but it still grew 20 something percent, but it had no net new customers. It started the quarter with the same number of customers that even UiPath. How'd they do it? They drove their five, their customers up to five mil…”
Lemkin: Tech industry hiring still far outpaces tech layoffs
“There are far more hiring going on in tech even today than layoffs.”
Lemkin: Public SaaS profitability gains came from leaning on customer base, not sales efficiency
“Every single public company is radically more efficient than 18 months ago. They all were unprofitable, and now they're profitable, just cash flow positive, or positive operating margins. But we didn't get better at sales and marketing. We just leaned on our b…”
Lemkin: Brex Laid Off 20% at $250M–$300M in Revenue
“And that's why even great companies like Brex just announced they had to lay off 20% at 253 hundred million in revenue.”
Lemkin: OpenAI conducts annual tender offers paying engineers millions
“OpenAI for engineers does tender offers every year, where you make millions of dollars a year from working in Open.”
Lemkin: 70% of Klaviyo's Revenue Comes from Shopify Customers
“Klaviyo, which was the only IPO of this year is marketing just for e-commerce. In fact, Klaviyo really is just marketing only for Shopify customers. 70% of Klaviyo's almost one billion in revenue only not only comes from e-commerce, it only comes from Shopify”
Successful SaaS Startups Consistently Hit a Growth Plateau Around $15M ARR
“We looked at all the data of our companies over a decade. Even the successful ones hit this thing that we call the growth plateau. Around fifteen million ARR, you can see in the data, and again, these are the successful companies that made it through. They hit…”
Sam Blond: Rippling pays promoters $25 to post onboarding on LinkedIn
“Rippling does this really creative strategy where when you are onboarded by one of their customers, so part of their product is onboarding, and when a new hire goes through this onboarding process, Rippling sends them an NPS survey. Anybody that marks that sur…”
Lemkin: Algolia crossed $200M in revenue and will IPO next year
“Second one, Algolia, worth three billion, doing over two hundred million, we'll IPO next year.”
OpenAI finished training GPT-4 in August 2022, holding it six months for safety
“We actually finished training GPT-IV in August last year, but we waited a little while before releasing it. When we first tried it out, we were all quite flabbergasted by how powerful it was, and we decided to sit on it almost six months to make sure that it w…”
Lemkin: Algolia, Talkdesk, Greenhouse, or SalesLoft will likely IPO in 2024
“We had a panel of Algolia, Talkdisk, Greenhouse, and I think SalesLoft, they're all at two hundred million and at least three of them, I think, will IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Most SaaS companies hit market bottom in Q1 or Q2 2023
“For most folks in Sass and Cloud, it was the around, sometime around the first or second quarter of this year, and they bounced off the bottom.”
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be a monster IPO and trade over $10B
“I really think all the VCs are gonna get excited about Klaviyo. It's gonna be a monster IPO. I think it'll trade over to ten billion.”
Half of 2023 Seed-Stage SaaS Startups Raised Pre-Revenue
“At the seed stage, as you can see here, approximately half of them were pre-revenue, while the other half had some ARR, anything between just a couple of 100,000 dollars Up to about a million or even 1.5 million.”
Cassidy: 90% of first startup VPs of Sales turnover within 12 months
“I think there's some statistic that like, 90 plus percent of first VPs of sales hired at a startup turnover inside of 12 months or less than 12 months.”
Lemkin: Iconiq Growth Did Zero Deals in 2022 and Five in 2023
“Iconic growth... Did zero deals last year. Zero. One of the best growth funds. They did five this year”
Dines: UiPath moved from $400M burn to cash flow neutral in 2020
“We turned guys from four hundred million burn to cash flow neutral in just one year. It's almost unheard of. While growing 80%.”
Jones: Wiz is transitioning to a 100% channel sales model
“Like we announced earlier this year, we're transitioning from a kind of hybrid direct channel model to a hundred percent channel. That's a result of how our customers are telling us they want to buy.”
G2: Only One in Three Buyers Primarily Trusts Vendor Websites
“Only one in three buyers actually looks at a vendor's website and says that this is the information source that I trust the most, and that's a big challenge for vendors, because typically your website is your channel to the market.”
G2: 57% of Software Contracts Are Now Six Months or Less
“57% of software contracts now are six months or less.”
G2: 48% of Enterprise Buyers Now Pay for SaaS via Credit Card
“53% of buyers most often now are buying SAS with a credit card, and the enterprise is coming up pretty quickly as well. 48% of people in the enterprise say they most often buy with a credit card.”