AI

“With artificial intelligence, we might have a real chance of reducing that computation by a billion times, ten billion times.”

“I think we're getting to a point where along many axes, it's a superhuman or should be superhuman. And I think we should maybe define more of an objective measure of like what we actually want. We want something that's very reliable, is grounded. You know, I o…”

“What's really interesting about diplomacy, aside from just the natural language component, is that it really is the first major game AI breakthrough in a game that involves cooperation.”

“The idea of AGI was really science fiction. There were some people that were, you know serious about it, but very few, the majority opinion was that AI was, if anything, it was kind of a dead field.”

“Like how many games does it take for an AI, for a human to become a good chess player or a good diplomacy player or a good artist? The answer is orders of magnitude less than it takes for an AI.”

“Eventually I'd imagine that these systems become so strong that, like, it kind of goes the way of chess, where, like, the human's just kind of, like, adding a marginal difference at the end.”

“I think if you were to look at constrained domains certain negotiation tasks, I think that AIs could probably do better than humans in that today. I mean, I'm trying to think of like specific examples, but things like you know, if you wanted to negotiate over …”

“I don't think you can get an AI to output like the next Harry Potter just yet. That might not be that far off. Maybe it's like five years away or something. But I don't think it's happening just yet.”

“So it's always been clear to me that in order to work in AI, both research and product, you do not need to already have been in AI.”

“The honest answer is I think we're going to go through a many year period of extreme discomfort where AIs pretend to be things or confuse people or extract money from your grandparents or you know, drain people's life savings in ways that are that are scary”

“Probably you don't need that high end, like level of intelligence, like To, you know, to do emotion.”

“I think I'm not that worried about Coming up with data and I feel like we could probably like just generate some more with the AI.”

“And like, the problem is super simple to define. It's just like predict the next word, the fat cat sat on the, you know, like, okay, well, you know, what comes next? Like it's extremely easy to define. And if you can do a great job of it, like, you know, then …”

“So you need physical form for the AI in order for it to truly be an existential threat. And that's why if I were to focus on an area, it'd probably be robotics or something like that, because that's where you suddenly give physical form to something. And if yo…”

“If you're trying to automate the entire process of like the whole end-to-end system of making a movie, yeah, like we're not there, right? We're very far from that. There's a lot of things to be, that have to be developed, that have to be the like research and …”

“And then I think on a breakthrough side, computational biology will be the biggest one.”

“We're sort of at the limit of what, you know, the smartest humans in the world are capable of inventing. And we have, you know, very pressing, urgent global challenges, you know, from food supply to water to decarbonization to clean energy, Transportation, you…”

“Peter Thiel, you know, to his credit did actually have significant vision here, although he sold pretty early, I think, and now doesn't seem to be in the game.”

“I think that the platforms were never neutral. That was the big lie. And I think that was, frankly, to me, very obvious from the very beginning. The choice architecture is a ranking. It's not a clean feed. Clearly there's billions of bits of content, so you ha…”

“We started with this assumption that AI is going to be a platform and the way that people are going to most usefully Make or the way that people are going to make most use of the platform is by building tools that assist people with jobs. So it's like less abo…”

“Every learner in the world, ah, deserves to have access to that individualized, high-quality instruction at no cost. Which seems like a reasonable thing. And then when you think about how you go realize that in the world, like the only way that you can realist…”

“A lot of sick people Are gonna rely on AI to get cured in the next 10 years.”

“Most doctors do not read the latest research. That's something that can be solved through AI. Like, AI can do a great job summarizing the latest research that your doctor is actually current.”

“I think it's all about like adoption, like on the healthcare side, I think it's all about adoption in the clinic and in the real workflows of doctors. And so the technology is there. It's more about like How do you embed that into clinical workflows in a way t…”

“We have suggested a billion replacement at this point. And like, that's all powered by AI.”

“We do a billion searches a month, a quarter, sorry. And you know, it's all powered by AI.”

“We have a second AI that's moderating the conversations. And if it looks like it's going into an unhealthy place, not only will it kind of shut down that, that, that thread of the conversation, but it will actively notify parents and teachers.”

“We're going to record every interaction with the AI and make it accessible to parents and teachers if the student is under 18.”

“そして、私は次の三年から五年以内に、ニル・スティブンソンが、 千九百九十四年に書いたことが、ほぼ全て現実になると思います。”

“So I definitely believe that AIs could operate in a more pure layer. Of logic that then gets converted and mapped back to whatever problem at hand that you have.”

“We started looking into blockchain just like to solve our own problem. The AI kind of exponential explosion didn't happen at the time. And so we saw an opportunity of, we can actually build a blockchain that we would use to solve this first and focus on that w…”

“So I think a lot of between web three and AI, a lot of SaaS will actually start being replaced because right now what SaaS is, is like one database. With a specific UI for a specific problem.”

“I think embedded in their answer is this attitude of like, if it becomes a problem, I will learn it, right? If the AI can't do it, I will learn it. And I think that's the right attitude for hackers is that you learn just in time to be able to do that task.”

“I feel like they're in general, people are viewing AI as this continuum where it's like, it's a CNN, RNN, and now we have transformers and it's just a straight line. And instead, obviously it's a big discontinuity in terms of capabilities. And I think most peo…”

“Like one human can now supervise a thousand humans. You know, you don't need a room full of like jerks trying to hack grandma or whatever when honestly like one jerk will now suffice, you know, with a for loop.”

“I don't think AI is going to be the one triggering the next pandemic. It's always going to be climate change.”

“France, UK, Poland are very good at training mathematicians. And as it turns out, mathematicians are very good at making AI.”

“There's a lot of other ones where the job of the software engineer and product manager and designer is going to shift from prescribing the how to Prescribing or describing the why and the what and the goal, and we leave it to the AI to figure out stochasticall…”

“We're seeing our data cloud grow as the fastest organically developed product in Salesforce's history, and a lot of that is driven by this need for data to power AI, whether it's for training and fine tuning or for reg.”

“It's not replacing existing workloads. It's adding new workloads.”

“And so I think that's just a huge transition that's coming, both in terms of incumbents adopting AI to their existing workflows, as well as a huge chunk of the services economy being converted into code. And in this case, instead of traditional software being …”

“And it's not just as people like to talk about, oh, well, I was going to take away jobs. It's like, Yeah, well, maybe, but like, but a lot of it is actually work that's not getting done that could be, that someone could get done, right? You know, it's like sen…”

“And you just can't have AI built by UN committee. It just doesn't exist. And it's one of the things that academics mostly don't understand because they've never, most of them, not all, of course, but most have never built anything, don't really understand how …”

“There's areas that I think are underdone that I would really like to see. Cybersecurity with AI. You know, I think it would be very good to have that relative to society. I think that the notion of you know, how do we make these transitions for the white colla…”

“Well, actually, in fact, we have a line of sight to a medical assistant on every smartphone. That's five billion smartphones in the world. And, you know, much less than a billion people have access to doctors. You have a line of sight to a tutor on every subje…”

“Well I mean, the obvious thing about AI that everyone probably listening to this podcast already agrees with is that it's somewhere between the largest, you know, tech transformation of our lifetime and perhaps the largest tech transformation of human history.”

“You know, mid-level white-collar jobs including some upper-level white-collar jobs, are one of the ones that are gonna get transformed first and most, most ferociously.”

“When you get to pandemic, maybe the only way to solve pandemic is AI. Well, a certain help for climate is AI. It's net, I think, strongly in the positive column. It doesn't to say that it might not add some existential risk characteristics to the overall portf…”

“And, you know, I think everyone tends to a little bit over predict, like how quickly things like everything will change next year and that's not going to happen. But then they tend to under predict, you know, 1020 years in some ways in terms of how the transit…”

“My, maybe a bit contrarian hot take here is that CS Fundamentals if anything, are gonna grow in importance. You know, the stuff you learn in the coding bootcamp, maybe that gets, you know, automated away, but the fundamentals of knowing, you know, which data s…”

“I think what AI will do is it will compress the middle because in the middle is really just a lot of, like, abstractions and middleware and other things that are today necessary and today, you know, require a lot of human labor to implement.”

“I would say identification and routings are typically more considered a more solved problem than grasping. Like, because if you, there are other, like, more mechanical way to solve those problems. Like, you can design a piece of conveyor that, like, if you alw…”

“And so we found robotics to be such a great way to both utilize the advances in AI, but also we think of it as a way to also propel AI forward. Like this is where you get the grounded data. This is where you get that embodied data of not just AI that is traine…”

“AI brings us into the world of like, okay, well, what if we can give you the driver in the car who knows how all these switches work and can help you along without having to learn all the switches? It's probably one of the most powerful opportunities for more …”

“I think the answer is mostly, especially some of these services firms, like maybe they partner to get there, but they mostly will not make the transition, I think.”

“The more I learn, the less I know in AI, and it's the opposite of every other field I've ever been in. Usually the more you learn about something, yeah, usually the more you learn about something, the more you can create sort of these straight line hypotheses,…”

“Probably before you see potential replacement of any part of the design role, you instead see augmentation and you see access. You see efficiency so that designers can get more done.”

“There is this pressure to do things fast because AI is so fast, and the fastest thing to do is, oh, let's take what's working now and let's kind of, like, add on something to it, and that probably is, as you're saying, more general than just image to video but…”

“No, it was a very, very tight knit group. A lot of, honestly, a lot of that group, all, many, many of them became founders. And a lot of them went into AI.”

“About 70% right now.”

“Using AI in the middle of a workflow is, is kind of the dominant way people are adopting AI today.”

“We wanted to replace the camera because we think AI can create the content, and AI could become the new camera, and that's how we get started with H&M, and our mission is to making visual storytelling accessible to all.”

“Like I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if Apple ended up with like another iPhone replacement cycle just for AI. Oh, we have a new chip that runs these, you know, they mentioned that they're gonna be working with smaller models that run these smaller model…”

“I do think there's a, like, if I could short something, I think that there is a mid to late stage private company, small public company that does not have the speed and institutional and founder or leadership will to go change the business when they see the wr…”

“What we've learned is that, you know, this is gonna be a really difficult product to just kind of release out there in a horizontal way and hope that everyone just figures it out, right? Even though there are so many different applications, you can apply it to…”

“You always hear people really worry about hallucinations or ambiguity and AI output, and it'll both get solved from a technology perspective, but to your point, there's really smart UI things that you can do.”

“We have, using the strategy, we climbed to 80% suggestion acceptance rate on the accounting side today.”

“And I think as you bring a lot of that data with, you know, assuming AI will get there and essentially operate with human level performance, you won't need anymore this concept of an ERP, and then you effectively have sort of this real time layer into what's h…”

“I honestly don't think there's that much risk if you constrain the problem well, right? Because at the end of the day, so like if you're trying to figure out like how to use AI to help you categorize transactions, it's not an open-ended question.”

“The one thing that I think will remain for a very long time is, is having good taste. And at like at the end of the day, like if you are, even if you are working with the eyes and machines at, Someone needs to decide, like, is, is this good or not? And there's…”

“Where they do a lot of the work that you mentioned in terms of iterating on copy, iterating on the imagery, doing it by different format for, is it TikTok versus TV versus whatever. That is all very automatable with AI. And so I'm very excited about that area.…”

“I think there's a lot of activity in, like, AI, and I think most of it is to kind of, like, replace or displace people, I would say.”

“I don't actually want to live in a world where lineage like matters too much, right? So I'm hoping that AI can help you destroy that structure a little bit. It feels like kind of gatekeeping by some finite scarce resource, which is like, oh, there's a finite n…”

“That's the thing with AI. I feel like a lot of them, a lot of these capabilities are just kind of like prompt away. So you always get like demos, but like, do you actually get a product? You know what I mean? So so in this sense, I would say the demo is near, …”

“You know, for most phone calls, it's called 13 dollars, you know, to service that phone call. Now with AI, you can bring down that cost to well below a dollar, you know, and so all of a sudden you've literally decreased the cost of a conversation by an order o…”

“In AI, the whole point of observability is to collect data into data sets that you can use to do evals, and then again, eventually fine tune models or, you know, more advanced things.”

“There's no modern equivalent I know of right now, and so I do think AI will also modernize some of these things that are generational, where every 10 years there's a new one of these, and it becomes really trendy for the kids. And then you take it, you take ad…”

“That being said, I think the criteria of the Nobel is, like, moved that particular field, and so it's not clear to me that the award for physics was necessarily advancing the field of physics versus saying, you know, there are principles that apply from the fi…”

“Because it turns out kind of managing an AI is extremely similar to managing actual software developers.”

“I think folks have been kind of concerned about are we hitting kind of limits of this stuff, et cetera, and no, I don't think so. Like, in the specific realm of CodeGen, I think we're going to see, I think we're going to see a lot of improvements pretty rapidl…”

“I do think that AI will play a role in manufacturing and sort of 10 exiting or even a hundred exiting manufacturing so that we can actually outperform humans in other countries. I think that's the way it's going to look. Okay. So we will not have to reduce lab…”

“I think there's so many benefits of this multi-tenant model in terms of capacity management that to me, it is very clearly like a big part of the future of AI is like running a big pool of compute and slicing it very dynamically.”

“So I, I'm very bullish on software engineers. I think it would take a lot to sort of destroy that demand. I think people look at a lot of like AI as like a kind of fix something, but in my opinion, it's like, No, it's just gonna unlock more latent demand for m…”

“One like mistake that entrepreneurs and investors make that I have made is like you look at something and it's not working and like the issue is it is like a technical issue and then you like assume it's not going to work. But I think in AI you have to like ke…”

“I don't think the billable hour is going to just completely disappear. I think what is going to happen is a lot of these tasks that are going to get, you know, AI can automate a lot of that task with a lawyer in the loop. Those tasks will end up being kind of …”

“If you are using these tools and you don't think that you can take basically AI and apply to X industry and transform the entire industry, I don't think you're thinking ambitiously enough, right?”

“I think for sure, both, both in AI generally, like, you know, just pure software companies. And then also, I think the next wave is starting on, on robotics. There will be like that bubble effect.”

“For cyber, I don't think AIs are that relevant for Being able to pull off a devastating cyber attack on the grid by a malicious actor currently.”

“I think there's going to be a next programming language after Python and TypeScript and Rust and Rust in itself, you know wasn't really a thing five years ago. And then, so there's going to be more languages that are probably closer to human language and to be…”

“We have the machine language layer, you know, which is Python or Ruby or Rust, right? Those are effectively abstractions of the chipset and the machine instruction set. And that's the last layer that's deterministic, right? Like programming language inherently…”

“I feel we're in the business as usual phase of AI. I think the stack is reasonably well-defined and obviously it'll change and there'll be new things in it. But I feel like if anything, the last couple of months have been very clarifying in terms of the consol…”

“Also, one thing that I think is very interesting is that a lot of people are in the mindset of AI being really good as an independent contributor when actually it may soon become much better at being a manager, right? And like taking a large problem, breaking …”

“I think displacement in a lot of roles is going to happen very quickly and it's going to be Very painful, ah, and a large political problem. Like, I think we're gonna have a big populist movement around this and all the displacement that's gonna happen”

“To build, you know, to build a future that is powered by batteries and AI, by mid-century, we will need to mine, over the next 25 years, more copper than has been mined so far in all of human history.”

“There is no way to isolate the AI from the HI. There's no way to isolate one piece of data that's uniquely powerful, and that's one of the reasons that I think is limited innovation as well”

“First of all, I do think that education is going to change over the next, some number of years. I can't say one year, but it's probably less than 20 years. Some things are gonna change. And the reason for that is it's just a lot more scalable to teach with AI …”

“Businesses are actually a lot more, more interested in, not in that, but in actually thinking about how they can transform their company with AI, how they can take specific business processes, you know, where they're spending a lot of money and how, how do the…”

“AI is not complete without spatial intelligence because The humans interact in in three D worlds and in the digital world, we need all kinds of interaction”

“Some people would argue like, well, AI is sort of like a similar kind of shift from like on-prem to cloud. And I probably don't agree. I think it's actually probably more centralizing as a technology”

“One, very fundamental difference I think we have with the Biden administration is the Biden team really looked at AI as something to be centralized and controlled. Everything was about how do we make sure that we regulate these three or four companies and only…”

“AI might be the most transformational economic cultural force of our lifetime. And I believe that if the country or the ecosystem Which winds up getting ahead is going to have these cyclic effects, right? Like you're going to, you know, you're going to power p…”

“It told us that America doesn't have a huge lead. On AI. It actually has a very, very small lead.”

“If we increase productivity, it will totally erode the competitive advantages in labor costs that developing countries have, and we have an opportunity to re-industrialize.”

“I think we're going to, we're likely to see a second great divergence. So, for the first time since the first industrial revolution, I think we're gonna see the economies that are first movers in integrating AI into their economy reap massive productivity and …”

“And so she's been making investments. She's been helping us a lot on, on some of our early stage investments that we make in AI and other areas, and she has a very good track record of doing those investments”

“It was the first product in the nineties to sell a billion dollars of AI.”

“Something I'm always thinking about is like, is this how our brains are working? Are we doing next Token prediction, and I don't think so. Like, I think that there's gonna be some further AI unlock.”

“I think displacement in a lot of roles is going to happen very quickly, and it's going to be very painful and a large political problem.”

“We need to think of AI the same way we think about software engineering, which is there's a right and there's a wrong. It cannot be this mode of like, YOLO, AI, you can get some good answers, some terrible answers, it's your problem. And so we very much emphas…”

“But now with like AI, one, I think the benefits are a much more immediately obvious to everyone. And so that's going to be this amazing tailwind to try to like do better here. And I think it will convince a lot of people who might have been skeptics in the pas…”

“I go back to that sort of returns to intelligence piece where I think science is a problem that has some shape to it that really benefits from the LLM architecture. Like you just think about the corpus of scientific literature as like this vast pool of unstruc…”

“I think this is, by the way, super under discussed that the people who tended to be the slowest adopters of technology love AI. That's physicians, that's lawyers, that's certain accounting types. It's, you know, it's actually kind of fascinating. It's complian…”

“One is I think people will proclaim yet again that AI is not doing much and it's overhyped and like that MIT report that people were quoting that I thought really didn't matter. And the reality of the technology waves take like 10 years to propagate and people…”

“My prediction would be over the course of the next five years, the excitement is going to be verticalization.”

“And then from an AI standpoint, you know, I feel like we're generally okay with the investment. I mean, there's so much money going in there that that's like a well-funded area, both the foundation models and the derivatives that are trying to do specific apps…”

“That's what if I'm an investor, and you know, we speak to investors all the time, that's what they are looking for, that hey, would this, will AI re-accelerate this company's growth? And unless you show re-acceleration, they are going to say, okay, maybe I'm n…”

“AI will still go on, and this is a layer you must have. That's it. So TAM must have layer, no risk of disruption.”

“And so if you put those at two extremes, one is communication platform, high fidelity with people, you know, the other is real time dreaming where everyone's an NPC. Everything in between is possible. And I think we see everything in between ultimately as bein…”

“I think that fundamentally you know, there's so much demand for software and there's so little supply of engineering and reality relative to that demand that as you add this enormous boost of productivity to software engineers it just gets soaked up. Right. Be…”

“And so the difference with AI, Is the velocity of change is so high that what normally would have taken a decade, and you'd have a normal decade-long displacement cycle, is now happening in a year or two. And that's really the reason that these things are so t…”

“And AI is a driver of this, right? Because you're taking services and you're taking certain types of jobs and you're augmenting them with AI and you're converting them into effectively software spend or tech spend. And you can make different assumptions about …”

“I would say, I mean, the interesting thing is that with embeddings, it almost doesn't matter as much anymore, The AI doesn't really care what the tree structure is, for example. The, all, all the AI cares about is that there's a snippet of text that has the co…”

“Flipping, flipping bits and the ability to copy paste digital information is like, makes everything a million times faster than accelerating matter, you know? So so energetically, I just think we're going to see a huge amount of activity in digital space, huge…”

“After the discovery of the Higgs I think a lot of high energy physicists were sort of looking for what's next. Ultimately it becomes bottlenecked on the new apparatus for, you know, pushing the next energy frontier. And I think a lot of physicists were looking…”

“It does feel like we have the potential for double-digit GDP numbers in the twenty-thirties. Like, that's, that seems not unrealistic to me. Not that that's going to be uniform all around the world, but certainly in large, large parts of the world, that seems …”

“But like in the case of Brazil, as an example, only 11% of the companies since that was last night's meeting have actually gotten past the experiment phase where they're doing experiments.”

“Very clearly with AI, it was very clear for us that, you know, step by step, it will go towards this consumptive world, right? First consumptive, and then maybe in the next step, once we have more verifiability in the system, then also towards maybe an outcome…”

“What we've done with AI is when you make your existing teams 30, 40% more efficient and they can handle more customers it changes the whole mindset of the organization. Now you're growing, you look like a software company now where you're now growing with High…”

“You can't do this in a year. You can't do this even in two years, three years. This is a multi-year transformation. These are these are sort of compounding effects where as you, as we talked about earlier, as you sort of give your people better tools, you get …”

“I think one of the biggest issues for actually adoption of AI is change management. Changing processes, changing our organizational design. And I guess if you own the actual company, then you can make those changes. If you're just selling software, you can't r…”

“You know, the American economy has been proven incredibly resilient, and a big part of that is AI being this incredible, you know, incredibly strong economic force that is already fueling over a third of our economic GDP growth right here in the US.”

“You want to build a frontier AI lab, but you need to couple that with a frontier biology effort that can do the work of basically being able to understand and get the data that you need to actually be able to build these models, because unlike language models,…”

“We have these systems that can basically kind of predict the next token and they can, you know, learn, World models from that. They can learn biology from the data.”

“And then in terms of the capital intensive, like AI in a factory and also the foundry, and then you really need to tap either government funding or some sovereign fund, and also some very big capital. You know, there's some big fund that doing that, and they'r…”

“Everybody know right now, memory is the biggest shortage. And everybody tried to scramble for memory. And then even though you want to build a fab to capacity increase, it would take a couple of years to do that.”

“When I look at the layoffs that are claimed from AI, for example most of them I think are overstated right now. You know, most of the layoffs are actually just over hiring during the COVID period.”

“My goal is to have a system that actually, we are able to predict well enough what the problem will be before it happens. And so just changing things.”

“So, I don't know, but I think this is not new, and there'll be a great deal of disappointment. There'll be a lot of people who are going to lose a lot of money, of course.”

“I assure you, when in China, they're not having that same thing about, oh, AI is bad, and we shouldn't do it. That is not what's happening there.”

“Fundamentally humans want to do human stuff. That's, you know, humans competing against other humans. It's humans making things. It's human solving problems. And there's certain areas where, you know, machines have gotten better than humans at things, but it r…”

“Computers at first made chess a little bit more boring, but then made it so much more exciting. And we're seeing more exciting chess than we ever have. And the players have gotten better and really computers are now able to help us unlock the game in ways that…”

“When we figure out AI and robotics that allows us to do semi-autonomous manufacturing, energy will become the cost of all things, right? The cost of buying a thing will become the cost of energy used to make it.”

“And if it's unusable and untestable, it's actually untrainable. And if it's untrainable, it's not usable for AI.”

“It's kind of like just saying tasks are being Automated or eliminated. People are not being eliminated. I think tasks are being eliminated. And so if you take a company like any sort of company today, Coinbase or others that exist today it's not that I don't t…”