The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 282 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 52 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Electric planes will outnumber gas-powered planes in the air by 2030
“By 2030, you'll see more electric airplanes in the air than gas powered airplanes.”
Shane Legg estimates a 50% chance of AGI by 2028
“So I actually came up with an estimate then that it was about a 50% chance of what I call AGI now by about 20 28.”
Shufelt: Non-alcoholic beer will account for over 50% of beer consumption
“In my head, I think it's going to be over 50% of beer.”
Wolfe Herd: Tech could prevent breakups within 10 years
“And my dream, Guy, is 10 years from now, We will be able to prevent breakups before they ever happen. We will be able to prevent bad relationships from ever having a potential of happening.”
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will become the world's biggest meat company
“We started saying to everybody, we're going to become the world's biggest meat company. This is what we're going to do. And if you're the world's biggest meat company, you're not selling the technology. You're selling meat.”
Yassin: Advertising-based content creation is a flawed, fraudulent model
“Advertising-based content creation is a flawed model, and I would dare say it's a fraudulent model. This is the model that has been working, but it will not work in the future.”
Vogt: Teslas may adopt low-cost LiDAR while Cruise drops it
“I think in the future, you know, the cost of LiDAR is coming down to the point where they basically cost the same as a camera, and so I wouldn't be surprised if in the future you see Teslas with very low-cost LiDARs, and you might see cruise vehicles with very…”
Altman: AI is automating creative jobs before blue-collar labor
“You know, the strong consensus Five, 10 years ago, was that first of all the AI was going to come for the blue-collar jobs. Second of all would be the less sophisticated white-collar jobs. Third of all would be the very high cognitive load white-collar jobs li…”
Radenbaugh: E-Bike Supply Chains Will Never Exist in the United States
“The supply chains for electric bikes, they don't exist in America. They're not going to exist.”
Troy Carter: America will never achieve true racial reconciliation
“So we're still reminded of our place in, in, in this country, so you'll never get to reconciliation. We all know the truth, but we'll never get to reconciliation.”
Brown: Matching beef industry scale will be game over for meat producers
“When we get the economies of scale that they have, and, ah, when we've, you know, expanded our suite of products and so forth, that it's going to be game over for them.”
Ethan Brown predicts eating animal meat will become a niche novelty
“There's part of us that's always gonna do this, right? Hunt people who hunt, you know, like, I go back to our farm and stuff, like, it's just part of who we are. But I think in the main, You know, it will be viewed as something that we used to do, and I think …”
Starr: Further tipped minimum wage hikes will make restaurant survival impossible
“I think at a certain point, especially with tipped employees, I don't know if it should keep going up, because, I mean, it's going to be impossible for restaurants to really keep, to stay in business.”
Huang: AI will empower new college graduates rather than taking their jobs
“AI is going to help this next generation of new college grads achieve greater things, build greater things, not take their jobs.”
Huang: Humanity will achieve centuries of technological progress in coming decades
“We will do in the next several decades what it took humanity several hundred years to achieve.”
Steve Ells: Robots will not displace restaurant cooking anytime soon
“And so the, your question, will robots displace that? I mean, maybe someday, but certainly not Not anywhere in the near future.”
Hastings: Films will keep human actors because audiences demand human drama
“And I think in the same way you know films will have human actors, not because it can't be something else but because other humans won't be that interested.”
Nirav Tolia predicts AI action platforms will completely replace multi-link search
“Particularly in a world of AI, where most consumers are going to go to one place, ask a question, and everything's going to be taken care of behind the scenes. It's not going to be, You go to Google, you get 15 links, you click on all of them, you hit back, yo…”
Bark Air Aims to Reduce Ticket Prices to $600 Within One Year
“We have line of sight to, how do we get to that 600 dollar ticket? We have very clear line of sight to doing that, I'd say, in the next year.”
Specialized Founder: Future of EV mobility is two-wheeled bicycles, not cars
“More and more, I see the activity of cycling, the whole mobility, the EV of the future is the two-wheel bike. Not the 8000 pound vehicle. I see that that's the future.”
Legg: AI will surpass human-level AGI to achieve artificial superintelligence
“So that definition of AGI to me is the bar, that's the entry level into AGI, but I do not think that's where it stops. I think you start going into what they call ASI, or artificial superintelligence, and it may be the case in certain dimensions is the scaling…”
Berdichevsky: Silicon should replace graphite across all batteries in 20 years
“So I think there'll, there'll be a place for graphite, but I would say in 20 years, silicon should be able to replace it in every nook and cranny.”
Combining AI With Attention Incentives Will Exacerbate Societal Information Crises
“It's the big incentives of the attention economy that have made this problem worse, and then combine that with technology and AI. And we're heading into, you know, a bigger version of that.”
Carbon removal will become a trillion-dollar industry at $100-$200 per ton
“So, you know, we think that In a medium to long term, the carbon price is likely going to be in the hundred to 200 dollar per ton mark, and at that cost, for five to ten billion tons, we were talking about a trillion dollars worth of carbon removal industry.”
Altemus: Humans will not return to the Moon until 2030
“And so I think it's twenty-thirty before we see boots on the moon.”
Blumenthal: AI ocular imaging will eventually diagnose primary health conditions
“And then we can use AIs to make diagnoses eventually and, you know, help better triage. Customers, not just within sort of eye care, but for primary health care and beyond.”
Dolgov: Autonomous taxis in most major US cities within 10 years
“I definitely agree with the latter, and I would not dismiss the former. 10 years is a, you know, reasonably long time, and, you know, things can happen nonlinearly.”
Finke: Calcium silicate cement will be lower cost at scale
“In the modern economy, we think that will be lower cost at scale.”
Finke: Decarbonized cement will not achieve quick global adoption unless it is Portland cement
“We don't think global adoption will happen if it's not Portland cement. Or at least it won't happen quickly.”
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will match Wagyu beef quality within three years
“We believe that in three years from now, we can also provide a Wagyu beef with the same level of marbling, the same level of tenderness and richness of flavor.”
Ben-Shitrit: Redefine Meat will reach profitability in two years
“So it's not 10 years, it's two years from now.”
Ben-Shitrit: Top 20 meat companies will include animal-free producers in a decade
“If you look even 10 years from now, out of the 20 biggest meat companies around the world, One company or two companies for sure will not rely on animals. This I have no doubt.”
Brain-based wearables will replace and consolidate all other wearable devices
“One is that brain-based wearables are going to replace
All the other wearables that you have.
That's step one.
And so all that data and all that value that we're seeing with existing wearables are going to be all consolidated into one device.”
Neurable will launch a silent, thought-controlled device interface by 2025
“So, you know, it's not like a vision video of a hundred years from now. At least V-one is going to be available within the next two years.”
BETA plans to operate commercially in the United States by 2025
“And yes, by 20, 25, they're doing commercial operations here in the U S and then we just basically build them as fast as we can.”
Szaky: Loop's success would intentionally eliminate TerraCycle's primary recycling division
“And if Loop were to really succeed in a grand way, our first division, which is focused on recycling, would disappear.”
Tang: Smartphones will be viewed as a temporary glitch within 10 years
“And 10 years down the road, I think smartphone is just a glitch.”
Khan: AI tutoring will help Khan Academy achieve two-sigma learning gains
“Essentially, old Khan Academy or base Khan Academy trying to get to that first standard deviation. And, but now with the AI, we can go to that second standard deviation.”
Khan: Immersive AI 'holodeck' simulations are 3 to 5 years away
“You know, there's a world now where you can talk to historical characters, and we're probably three to five years away where you could share a room with Benjamin Franklin or Julius Caesar or Cleopatra and immerse yourself. It'll, it'll be literally the holodec…”
Urmson: Anyone driving a commercial truck today can still retire as one
“Now, my expectation is that if you're driving a truck today and you would like to retire as a truck driver, you're going to be able to. The shortage is that dire and the opportunity to kind of grow the freight market is, is real. And so I expect that, again, y…”
Aurora expects fully driverless freight operations by late 2024 starting in Texas
“And so, yes, our expectation is by the end of next year, there will be no human. Yeah. And, you know, the way we're going to launch this is initially it'll be on one lane, Which is what you call kind of a trucking route, and that'll be between Dallas and Houst…”
Urmson predicts tens of percent of U.S. trucking becomes autonomous by 2033
“I think that's probably high for 10 years from now, but it's gonna be tens of percent is my expectation in, in a decade.”
Cliffton: Zipline will serve hundreds of millions of homes within five years
“And so I think that, you know, the question of how long is it going to take to expand from the, You know, thousands of homes that are served today to the hundreds of millions of homes that we ultimately need to serve. I think that that process will probably ta…”
Horowitz: US recycling rates could double to 70 percent by 2028
“As you start to make the economics better, you start to see that this 34, 35% number can start to look more like 50 or 70%, and we think that there's a real opportunity to do that in the next five years.”
Gibson: Precision fermentation foods will become the norm in a few years
“Precision fermentation powered food products are going to become the norm in a few years time”
Yassin: 195 localized media hubs will eventually replace Hollywood's dominance
“In the future, there is a room for a 195 more Hollywoods to be created. The days in which the whole world is watching Will Smith on TV and Tom Cruise for the 55th movie are done.”