The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 148 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 148 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Janus: AEP will not connect 90 gigawatts in next decade
“There's no reason to believe that AEP is going to connect 90 gigawatts in the next 10 years.”
Steingart: Direct recycling is likely the only viable path for LFP batteries
“I think if LFP recycling is going to have a shot, it's going to be on a direct recycling route, and for those that know me and get a beer with me after conferences, they're probably doing a spit take, because I'm pretty skeptical of direct recycling in a lot o…”
Jaramillo: Grids will pay for 100-hour storage at $20 per kWh
“All the modeling that we did confirmed by third priority modeling is that a hundred hours and 20 dollars per kilowatt hour is sort of the magic combination. And if you can hit 20 dollars per kilowatt hour, the system will pay for a hundred hours of duration.”
Lovering: Handful of advanced nuclear projects will come online before 2030
“I think we'll probably see ground start to get broken in maybe the next five years, and probably, I would say, a handful of projects coming online before 2030.”
Grogan: First commercial seabed mineral recovery will occur around 2028
“I think probably around twenty-twenty-eight is, is a fair guess.”
Larson expects gas plant capacity factors to plummet by the mid-2030s
“We see that going down into, like, the twenties. Because wind and solar are coming on at such huge volumes in their variables. So you're running these gas plants in a much different way by the mid-twenty-thirties.”
Bartholomew: California will ban fossil heating equipment in seven years
“California's gonna be banning this stuff in seven years, so start the transition now when there's a lot of money and incentives going.”
Kugelmass: Advanced chemistry nuclear reactors will not deploy until mid-2030s
“The ones that are most realistic, even by their own admission, by the way, to be built in the next five to 10 years, are the ones that use the traditional proven reactor technology and don't introduce some sort of physics chemistry or material science innovati…”
Sachs: EVs will provide up to 25% of grid services by 2030
“We expect by 2030 that EVs will make up somewhere between a fifth and a quarter to that contribution.”
Friedmann: Maritime shipping will use a mix of methanol and ammonia by 2050
“But in twenty-fifty, I think we're going to end up with a blend of both, in part because we're starting already with methanol. People are making investments in methanol ships and methanol bunkering because they want to decarbonize rapidly by twenty-thirty. And…”
Mukhopadhyay: Fleet turnover caps 2050 hydrogen aircraft penetration at 6% to 12%
“And so our projections suggest that even though hydrogen aircraft could service a third of passenger aviation, the actual market penetration is probably going to be more like six to 12% by 20 50. Because of that slow fleet turnover rate.”
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly.
They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
House: Reaching a fully circular battery economy will take 50 years
“We can achieve 90, 98, 99% recycling rates on these, on, on these batteries, and over time, we'll get to the point where we do not have to mine them which is really, really exciting. But that will take more than a generation, unfortunately. We need a lot more …”
Bataille: Carbon removal is an admission we will miss net-zero targets
“We're probably going to blow past the deadline by about two decades, which means, you know, CDR is basically an admission of failure. That we did not mitigate fast enough.”
Quantum computers will outperform DeepMind's AI models at predicting protein folding
“DeepMind actually just released some really interesting papers on how they can predict, based on the sequence of amino acids, how a protein can fold. A quantum computer will be able to do that better. It just will”
Rutherford: SAFs will lead aviation decarbonization through 2040 before hydrogen potentially emerges
“You know, 2030, SAFs, definitely. 2040, I would also say SAFs. 20 50, it may shift to hydrogen.”
Lubershain: Grid equipment and gas plant costs have doubled or tripled
“Conductor is, like, twice as expensive. So, like, basic aluminum, steel-reinforced conductor. Transformers are two-plus times more expensive. Switchgear is two times more expensive. Gas power plants are two to three times more expensive.”
Wang: Voya cuts front-line fuel shipping volume by roughly 70%
“And then in terms of fuel logistics, especially for the military use cases where they're using the fuel so inefficiently, we have a substantial energy density benefit, about 20 to 30% Less mass and about 70% less volume shipped to the front lines for a typical…”
China has 15 to 20 million units of idle car manufacturing capacity
“So to put some numbers to it, this year, China has capacity to build about fifty five million cars. Their domestic demand is twenty five million. They'll export another ten million. That leaves 15 to twenty million in excess capacity idle, looking for new mark…”
China is on track to export 12 million cars this year
“This year, they're on track to export twelve million cars. Twelve million.”
Emerald and NVIDIA to deploy 100MW power-flexible AI factory in 2026
“I think later this year, as you know, Emerald and NVIDIA and some other partners, Digital BLT, Epri, Dominion, and PJM, we will put together the world's first, ah, A hundred megawatt commercial scale AI factory that is truly power flexible. It's custom designe…”
Kann predicts US energy startup funding will boom and triple in 2026
“So I think we're going to see, this is going to be a return to a boom, this is my prediction right now, where, yeah, we were at two billion last year, down from eight billion in twenty-twenty-two. I don't know that we get back to eight, but like, Will it tripl…”
Bullard: Tech CapEx has likely not peaked and will rise next year
“This is probably not the peak. Like, most of the estimates based on what companies themselves are saying for their estimated CapEx have a higher number for next year, right?”
Software agents, rather than human queries, will drive most AI inference workloads
“I think increasingly most of the inference workload will come from other software agents.”
Black: New Mexico's sovereign wealth fund will probably surpass Alaska within three years
“It's, it is the second largest in, in the U.S., only behind Alaska, and we think we'll probably surpass Alaska in the next three years or so.”
Kann: Co-located gas power will remain a minority of new data centers
“I think it's going to end up being the minority of new data centers, not the majority of new data centers.”
Kann: Transformer manufacturing capacity will expand and bring down lead times
“I do think we also will see a lot of new transformer manufacturing capacity come online in the next few years. It's, the lead times are gonna come down, and I think we'll see a wave of new technology.”
Sivaram: AI data center racks hit 132 kilowatts, heading toward 1 megawatt
“Today, I just was in a data center in Silicon Valley seeing a brand new deployment of NVIDIA GB 200, the Blackwell generation. The rack is 132 kilowatts. It's liquid cooled, and we're headed toward one megawatt rack.”
Mossberg: Sodium-ion cell prices will drop ~$20/kWh over next 2–3 years
“We can see pretty clearly for the next two years, because we have quotes from both from raw material suppliers and from cell suppliers that take the, you know, like the price is falling by about 20 dollars per kilowatt hour over the next two, two-ish years, tw…”
Dumoulin-Smith: U.S. residential solar dealer markups will fall without tax credits
“As we see the tax sort of come out, you're going to see that spread, that difference in how you know, you price residential solar in the U.S. Start to come up, right? The dealer markups and the like start to come down.”
Kelty: LMR cathode achieves intermediate range at LFP battery cost
“So that, that's the advantage, is that you get something in between there, in terms of your driving range, but you're able to do it at the cost of the LFP.”
Kurt Kelty: LMR batteries use GM's existing Ultium high-nickel manufacturing lines
“So this is one of the beauties of LMR is that it really piggybacks off all the work that we've done with high nickel. So it's the same manufacturing process. So we'll use the same Ultium factories. The it's the same electrode manufacturing process. The packagi…”
Kelty: GM's next-gen prismatic packs will reduce part count by over 50%
“Just as an example, the prismatic cells on our next generation pack will reduce our piece count by over 50% compared to our current pouch cell packs.”
Hoyland: Unlikely US has another gigawatt-scale conventional geothermal resource
“But at least here in the United States, it's unlikely that there's another gigawatt-scale conventional geothermal resource to be discovered of that type.”
Median utility-scale storage projects will hit 2 GWh in two years
“I would expect, if we were to even talk two years from now, I think two gigawatt hours would probably be the size of projects that will be more the median than even the maybe 800 megawatt hour that you have today.”
Norris: AI data centers could drive 44% of US electricity load growth
“Yeah, I think what really opened our eyes were some of these forecasts suggesting that AI specialized data centers are going to be likely the single largest driver of U.S. Electricity load growth for the next five to seven years, with some numbers suggesting a…”
Kimber: Co-located renewables can power Texas data centers carbon-free 75%–80% of the year
“75 to 80% of the hours of the year, we can run fully carbon free with, you know, wind, solar, and batteries all on the same site. And then, you know, 20%, maybe a little over 20% of the time, we need to have some gas or we need to use the grid.”
Loo: 80% of global fleet will still burn fossil fuels in 2030
“If you just look at the numbers and you look at how many vessels are on the water today which is 65,000, and how 80% of them are going to be still on fossil fuel by twenty-thirty, and probably about 30% in twenty-fifty, they need to decarbonize as well.”
Loo: Ammonia output must reach 600 to 700 million tons by 2050
“The projection is we need, we will see about six to seven hundred million tons of ammonia by 20 50. Today, it's only about two hundred million tons that's being produced, right?”
BYD has no plans to enter the US passenger vehicle market
“I know this from personal connection that BYD just isn't coming to America in the PV market at all.”
Shah: Full VPP software integration costs roughly $35 million per utility
“Our estimates is that this would cost roughly thirty-five million dollars per utility to put all the software layers in place from the venture-backed companies that have created them to be able to, you know, actually fully integrate this whole suite, right?”
Garaman: Cyclic Materials aims to recycle 2% of global rare earths by 2032
“Cyclic materials plan is by 2030, 31, 32, we will be recycling around two percent of the world rare earth elements.”
Lubbershane: Surging demand and supply constraints will increase wholesale electricity prices
“Basic economics, right? We're seeing demand rise really quickly. We're seeing constraints on supply. All else equal, I think that means we're going to see increases in wholesale electricity prices in general. I think if you had to make a bet one way or the oth…”
Groarke: Half of the utility workforce will retire in 10 years
“50% of the workforce is going to retire in the next 10 years. You can see that happening right now. So you have this kind of field technicians are leaving, right?”
Brooke: Global livestock emissions are projected to increase 46% by 2050
“And we're expecting animal protein consumption to increase about, by about 20% by mid-century, about twenty-fifty. And that's going to result in an increase in emissions from livestock production by about 46%.”
Grogan: The ISA will pass deep sea exploitation regulations
“I think the ISA will pass its exploitation regulations. Whether they do that in July is, is a question that I can't answer. But I think there's, it will go ahead.”