Opinion
Jaramillo: Displacing lithium-ion for intraday storage up to 12 hours is unlikely
“Displacing lithium ion is going to be really hard. I mean, the grid markets are sort of the tail on the dog of the automotive markets right now driving the production of lithium ion at scale. And so, so the industry that we're in, the electric industry gets to…”
Insight
Jaramillo: Grid storage value drops between 12 and 75 hours of duration
“What we find in the modeling is that there's a lot of value for sort of up to 10 or 12 hours, let's say. There is less value. I'm not going to put a specific number, but there's, there is less value that we see very markedly in the system until you get back up…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Jaramillo: Grids will pay for 100-hour storage at $20 per kWh
“All the modeling that we did confirmed by third priority modeling is that a hundred hours and 20 dollars per kilowatt hour is sort of the magic combination. And if you can hit 20 dollars per kilowatt hour, the system will pay for a hundred hours of duration.”
Insight
Jaramillo: Multi-day storage halves the land footprint needed for solar buildout
“By having cost-effective multi-day storage, you can incorporate More renewable energy without sacrificing reliability at basically half, half the land cost, and that, by that I mean you only have to put solar on half as many acres to get the same benefit and t…”
Insight
Jaramillo: 100-hour lithium-ion storage cannot clear grid energy markets economically
“In the case of lithium ion, Let's say that's roughly a hundred dollars a kilowatt hour. You're adding a hundred dollars for every hour you want to discharge. And the industry normalizes around dollar per kilowatt in terms of comparative resources. So everythin…”
Assertion Supported
Jaramillo: Iron-Air Raw Materials Cost Under $1/kWh vs $30–$35 for Lithium-Ion
“One quick point of reference, you know, lithium ion active materials. So you pull the active materials out of the ground, you put them on the table, it's maybe 30, 35 dollars a kilowatt hour, unprocessed, right? Not turned into a cell at all. For us, it's less…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jaramillo: Wholesale power markets today do not price reliability
“They run their own internal markets, right? They're not part of a wholesale market. And so they can pretty precisely put a value on, on reliability, which the wholesale markets today do not do.”
Insight
Jaramillo: 100-hour storage provides physical market hedge short duration cannot
“Having a hundred hour duration resource is a physical hedge against price spikes in a way that you can only really financially hedge right now unless you have, again, thermal resources. So it sort of opens up a new A new frontier for market participation in a …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jaramillo: Electric grid will need to double in size by 2045-2050
“It's trending that we would double this, we would need a grid, which is twice the size that it is today, by about 20, 45, twenty-fifty, roughly, given the growth rates.”
Insight
Jaramillo: Multi-day storage matches the 3-5 day duration of material weather events
“The reason why that number of hours, you know, four days roughly becomes relevant is because that's where a lot of the material weather events sort of sit in terms of duration.”
Disclosure
Jaramillo: Form Energy is building a 1,500-megawatt-hour battery for Georgia Power
“We, we're doing a project with them. It's slated to be about 15 megawatts, so on a power basis, not, not so large, but about 1500 megawatt hours.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jaramillo: Electric industry is seeing first demand growth in 40 years
“We are in a growth moment for the electric industry, which is not what it had been for the last 40 years, roughly.”
Insight
Jaramillo: Buffering transmission lines with energy storage increases their utilization
“Having storage, you know, the ability to buffer at one end or both ends makes that even more a highly utilized resource.”
Insight
Jaramillo: Multi-day energy shifting is required to resolve wind basis risk
“The ability to have a type of resource that allows you to, what we call, shape around that risk. In other words, move your energy by, you know, by days, essentially is what's required to get out of that Conundrum that, that a lot of existing plants find themse…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jaramillo: ERCOT price spreads justify 1-to-4-hour batteries, not 100-hour arbitrage
“Right now, there aren't enough hours that have a long enough spread where it makes sense to have a hundred hour bar doing that. It does make sense for a four hour or two hour battery or even a one hour battery, frankly in ERCOT.”
Opinion
Jaramillo: LLM compute is driving electricity demand "bonkers"
“And that's not even really digesting the impacts for whatever they may be on, on the you know, large language model compute side of things, which is driving Demand bonkers right now.”
Assertion Supported
Jaramillo: Georgia Power updated its resource plan early due to load growth
“The load growth is coming on so quickly that that Georgia Power has gone back to their regular to update their integrated resource plan two years early because they see the need to build out much more capacity even sooner than what they had anticipated”
Assertion Supported
Jaramillo: Iron-Air Battery Chemistry Has Never Been Commercialized
“We did not invent the chemistry, it's been around for some time, but it's never been commercialized.”
