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ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Sacks: Vitalik Buterin's dog coin donation gave Future of Life $600M
“He donated his dog coins to Future of Life. They ended up being worth six hundred million dollars. So by this- Almost like this accident, this Doomer think tank ends up with a six hundred million dollar war chest, and they've been funding these journalism fell…”
David Sacks Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 17:57 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Sacks: Hundreds of anti-AI front orgs are funded by three billionaires
“She has shown that there are hundreds of these front organizations, and they're all really just funded by a few big tech billionaires. It's Dustin Moskovitz, Jan Tallinn, and Vitalik Buterin.”
David Sacks Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 20:53 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
20VC Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI revenue is $16B vs $400B in CapEx
“End users in the enterprises are spending about fundamental data 15, sixteen billion dollars on AI. And the people who make AI are spending four hundred billion dollars on quote, making AI, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 46:14 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Lovable reached $200M ARR with a team of just 100 employees
“We're over two hundred million in AR. At this point, we're a hundred people large.”
Elena Verna Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 56:22 The new AI growth playbook for 2026 | How Lovable hit $200M ARR in one year
MIXERGY Assertion Supported
Hastings: Pilot and competitors relied on large manual staffs using QuickBooks
“So pilots, any of the ones we just talked about, They have hired a very large staff that is just using QuickBooks. So they did not start by building their own QuickBooks replacement. They started using QuickBooks, and they started by hiring a lot of people, an…”
Helen Hastings Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 26:46 #2288 She had people do AI’s work
a16z Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Memphis police lowered recruitment standards enough to hire criminals
“Because of the shortage many police departments have lowered their standards. So the kind of criticism of the police was, okay, you have, and it really, like, if you looked into it, There were some, like, psychos who joined the police force. They couldn't get …”
Ben Horowitz Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 3:57 “How We Can Eliminate Crime” | Ben Horowitz and Garrett Langley
ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts US youth unemployment will reach 14% due to AI
“Nine percent in January, now 10 and a half percent. I think this chart's going right up to 14%, just my prediction, and I think it's because of AI.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:20:06 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
20VC Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 1:24:14 SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price & Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Surge AI Surpassed $1B in Revenue With Under 100 Employees
“Yeah, so we hit over a billion of revenue last year with under a hundred people.”
Edwin Chen Dec 7, 2025 ▶ 5:40 The $1B Al company training ChatGPT, Claude & Gemini on the path to responsible AGI | Edwin Chen
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 23:45 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
WTF Assertion Supported
Musk: Some outsourcing companies have gamed the US H-1B visa system
“It's certainly, it would be accurate to say that there's, you know, like some of the outsourcing companies have kind of gamed the system on, on the H-one B front, and we need to stop the gaming of the system, you know”
Elon Musk Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 1:50:43 Elon Musk: A Different Conversation w/ Nikhil Kamath | Full Episode | People by WTF Ep. 16 · Nikhil Kamath
a16z Prediction Held up
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Vlad Tenev Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 42:01 Robinhood CEO: Making Everyone An Owner
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Luria: Meta used a Blue Owl SPV to finance data centers off-balance-sheet
“The other thing that happened with Meta that was interesting is that when they Went out to borrow. They didn't borrow the capital. They created a special purpose vehicle, right? They went out with Blue Owl and they said, you know, we'll put a couple of billion…”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 47:18 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Held up
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 47:54 OpenAI Bailout?, Elon’s $1 Trillion Pay Deal, Amazon Sues Perplexity
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Sacks: Moskovitz, Tallinn, and Buterin gave over $1B to AI doomers
“Three big tech billionaires who are on the left contributed over a billion dollars to these Doomer think tanks. Basically, it was Dustin Moskovitz, Jan Tallon, and Vitalik Buterin.”
David Sacks Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 28:26 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI has $1.4T in financial obligations and 30GW compute commitments
“OpenAI has 1.4 trillion worth of financial obligation. And it's made commitments to use 30 gigawatts of data center capacity. But OpenAI's revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and we already have eight hundred million people using ChatGPT.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 18:36 OpenAI and Microsoft’s Grand Bargain, Sam Altman’s Next Three Years, A New Humanoid Robot
BG2 Assertion Supported
Nadella confirms Microsoft owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on diluted basis
“Yeah, it does. But I would say before even our stake in it, Brad, I think what's pretty unique about OpenAI is the fact that as part of OpenAI's process of restructuring, one of the largest nonprofit gets created.”
Satya Nadella Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 3:04 All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Prediction Held up
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Sam Altman Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 28:41 All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Assertion Supported
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Satya Nadella Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 50:59 All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Chamath: Only a few hundred NEVI EV chargers deployed by 2025
“And as of this year, there's only a few hundred of these charging stations.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 10:43 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Buttigieg: DOGE mistakenly emailed air traffic controllers encouraging them to quit
“The doge we got sent an email to every air traffic controller in the country during an air traffic controller shortage and suggested they quit being an air traffic controller and get something, quote, more productive to do in the private sector, only later on …”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 24:59 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Buttigieg: DOGE fired nuclear safety and health staff, then tried to rehire them
“The doge we got fired people in charge of making sure our nuclear weapons were safe and in charge of making sure that bird flu didn't spread, and then, whoops, You know, tried to hire him back in a hurry.”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 25:21 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Buttigieg claims citizens with accents or brown skin are detained without legal access
“We got citizens who just have an accent or look brown, getting picked up, sometimes getting detained without access to a lawyer for a frighteningly long amount of time, and that's citizens, let alone other people who, you know, maybe they shouldn't be here, bu…”
Pete Buttigieg Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 41:48 Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
20VC Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Sam Altman receives zero equity in OpenAI's corporate restructuring
“They're a little interesting, but the craziest thing in this deal, because it's unprecedented, I think in our lifetimes is OpenAI said that Sam Altman will still have no shares in the combined entity.”
Jason Lemkin Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 3:44 OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses & Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: AI model companies spend $300B to $400B on compute
“Because if you think about it, these model companies have grown faster than any company in human history. They're spending three, four hundred billion dollars on compute. They're probably spending three, four billion dollars on RLHF, and they were spending zer…”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 29:22 OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses & Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
a16z Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Marc Andreessen Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 47:44 Marc Andreessen: How Movies Explain America
20VC Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Venture returns over last 5 years massively trailed public markets
“The truth is the venture return over the last five years has been massively lower than the public market returns.”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 1:06:39 Why VC Today is Worse than 2021 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MAD Prediction Held up
Top AI models will work autonomously for full days within two years
“In a year from now, maybe two years from now, it's the top models are going to be able to work completely on their own for like a whole day or more”
Julian Schrittwieser Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 3:01 Are We Misreading the AI Exponential? Julian Schrittwieser on Move 37 & Scaling RL (Anthropic)
TBPN Assertion Supported
Microsoft's $22B Army augmented reality contract vehicle has moved to Anduril
“Who would have bet that eight years later, that Microsoft contract, that twenty-two billion dollar contract vehicle for the architecture of the Army's AR future would move over to Anduril, that we would be launching something like Eagle Eye”
Palmer Luckey Oct 21, 2025 ▶ 45:59 Palmer Luckey Live on TBPN
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Calacanis: San Francisco spends $52,000 per homeless person annually
“High estimate, like, eight hundred million, lower estimate, seven hundred million, and low estimate for homeless people is like 8000 high estimates, like, 20, if we cut in between these two, they're spending 52,000 dollars a year per homeless person.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 19:53 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
a16z Prediction Held up
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Keith Rabois Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 1:06 Keith Rabois: Israel, OpenAI, Opendoor, and DOGE
BG2 Assertion Supported
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Bill Gurley Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 10:39 AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Tesla Cybertruck cannot pass European pedestrian protection safety standards
“Like, for example, a Cybertruck would not, could not work in Europe.”
RJ Scaringe Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 36:44 How to build a $16B car company with RJ Scaringe, founder of Rivian
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Supported
Carvalho: Brazilian Supreme Court forced critical journalists into US exile
“We have a number of journalists living in America right now that were critical of the government. And had to leave the country because the whole idea of combating fake news, for example, got into a, you know, if Biden was bad about trying to go into Twitter an…”
Carlos Carvalho Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 18:02 This Idea is Destroying American Universities · Joe Lonsdale
BIGDEAL Assertion Supported
Lyon: Evidence Does Not Support Claims That Seed Oils Derange Metabolism
“The evidence doesn't support that seed oils are causing the derangement that people are saying.”
Dr. Gabrielle Lyon Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 30:16 Doctor: This Will Strip Your Fat Faster Than Anything! | Dr. Gabrielle Lyon
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Meta paid $14B for a 49% non-voting stake in Scale AI
“The transaction was Meta invested a little bit over fourteen billion dollars to get 49% of the company non-voting stock. Didn't take a new board seat.”
Jason Droege Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 10:58 Scale AI CEO on Meta’s $14B deal, scaling Uber Eats to $80B, & what frontier labs are building next
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Tsai: China has not started a war in 30 to 40 years
“China has not started a war in the last, how many years? You know, 30 years, 40 years.”
Joe Tsai Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 12:00 Alibaba's Joe Tsai on US-China Rivalry, AI Future, Owning the Nets/Liberty, Caitlin Clark's Impact
a16z Assertion Supported
Nejatian: Opendoor launches home return policy in Dallas, Texas
“Which, by the way, we launched this yesterday at Opendoor in Dallas, Texas. You buy a home from Opendoor, you don't like it, you can return it. Like, you can move it early, try it out, don't like it, return it.”
Kaz (Kaz Nejatian) Oct 7, 2025 ▶ 15:51 Opendoor CEO: Building the Amazon for Homes
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI deal includes warrants for 10% of AMD at one cent per share
“Part of this, OpenAI will receive warrants for up to a hundred sixty million AMD shares worth roughly 10% of the chip company at one cent per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment.”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 6:54 OpenAI and AMD's Megadeal, Sam Altman and Jony Ive’s Bumpy Start. Meta vs. Apple
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Supported
Stitt says 99% of people in Tulsa encampments chose to leave
“99% of the people, they just leave because this is a lifestyle and they haven't hit rock bottom yet. And they're literally just getting on the train tracks and walking on to the next community.”
Kevin Stitt Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 4:03 How this Governor is Proving Trump Right · Joe Lonsdale
a16z Assertion Supported
Kupor: OPM introduces forced distribution, capping top executive ratings at 30%
“So one of the things that we're doing, we just put out guidance on this, at least with respect to what are called the SES, which are the most senior level people in government, is we are effectively doing a modicum of a forced distribution. And so we put out g…”
Scott Kupor Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 13:42 The Person Who Runs HR For 2 Million Federal Workers
20VC Assertion Supported
Ross: NVIDIA will produce ~5.5M GPUs this year despite 50M die capacity
“If Nvidia wanted to, they could build fifty million of those GPU die, Per year. But they're going to build about 5.5 million GPUs this year.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 14:48 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
a16z Assertion Supported
Schimpf: China possesses 250 times the shipbuilding capacity of the US
“Where there's something like 250 times the shipbuilding capacity you know, massively, massively, probably thousands of times on the weapon side. You know, it is just on drones. It's massive. Like, you just, kind of look category by category, massively outpacin…”
Brian Schimpf Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 48:04 Anduril CEO: China Has Scale. Can America Catch Up?
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Dick's Destroyed $5M in Guns and Accepted $250M Annual Sales Loss
“After Parkland in 2018, where the shooter had bought a shotgun at Dix, Ed made a decision that would cost at least two hundred and fifty million dollars annually. No more assault rifles. No firearms to anyone under 21. They destroyed five million dollars in ex…”
Shane Parrish Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 1:07:03 Ed Stack: Lessons from Dick’s Sporting Goods [Outliers]
20VC Prediction Held up
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 40:38 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Sacks: Rutgers poll shows 50% of left-of-center respondents justify Trump or Musk murder
“50% of left of center said yes. 14% of right of center said yes. Even that number is shocking to me.”
David Sacks Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 18:48 Charlie Kirk Murder, Assassination Culture in America, Jimmy Kimmel Suspended, Ellison Media Empire
a16z Assertion Supported
Rampell: Coupon extensions like Honey steal affiliate attribution at checkout
“And then it's like, do you want a coupon code? Oh, why? Yes, I do. Why would I not want a coupon code? 10% off, click here. You go click here. What does it do? It redirects you to an affiliate page. It puts a cookie on your machine. It redirects you back to th…”
Alex Rampell Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 11:19 The Death of Search: How Shopping Will Work In The Age of AI
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Deel planted a spy at Rippling who tried to flush their phone
“Like in the tech world, we're seeing a very interesting story play out between Rippling and Deal, which are these two payroll processors, and Deal planting a spy, and the spy, like, running into the bathroom, and then trying to flush a phone.”
Lulu Cheng Meservey Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 47:25 How To Build A Cult | Lulu Cheng Meservey
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