Insight
Scaringe: Apple CarPlay creates a jarring experience lacking vehicle-level controls
“We just felt and continue to feel very strongly around creating a consistent, fully integrated digital experience where you're not jumping between apps, let's say from like a CarPlay app back to the vehicle app, and it's quite jarring when you don't have, let'…”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Tesla Cybertruck cannot pass European pedestrian protection safety standards
“Like, for example, a Cybertruck would not, could not work in Europe.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Rivian is the best-selling SUV overall in California and Washington
“Interestingly, in California and the state of Washington, we have the best-selling SUV, electric or not electric, in California and the state of Washington.”
Insight
Scaringe: Vertical integration becomes a huge structural cost advantage at scale
“When you're producing less than 50,000 units a year, the engineering fixed cost and the operational fixed cost to run that is very high, so it's a structural cost challenge. But you reach an inflection. Well, just to run an engineering team to engineer all tha…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Hands-Free and Eyes-Off Driving Will Be Expected Within Five Years
“Or in this, the next five years, we're going to see autonomy features where the idea of like hands-free or hands-free eyes off go from being something that a very small percentage of customers are looking for or using to something that's essentially expected.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Every automaker except Rivian and Tesla relies on 50-150 computers
“And so, with the exception of two companies, Rivian and Tesla, every car on the road has, depending on the amount of content, anywhere from 50 to maybe a 150 little computers that run the car.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Automakers without software-defined architectures will lose market share
“That must come, and if it doesn't, sort of like if manufacturers don't make that change, they're just going to lose market share, and the ones that do have that technology are going to gain a lot of market share in the next 10 years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Scaringe: Rivian steady-state vehicle sales will achieve 20% to 25% gross margin
“Vehicle sales, let's say that comfortably sitting it when we get to the right steady state, the 20 to 25% gross margin.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Chinese EV Cost Advantage Stems from Government-Subsidized Capital
“What's driven the cost down is that you have the compounding benefits of much lower cost of capital across not just this, the manufacturer, the vehicle manufacturer, but across their whole supply chain. So tier one, tier two, tier three, everyone's cost of cap…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Auto Production Will Shift to China Without Trade Friction
“If There's zero trade friction between, let's say, a country and China. More production in the fullness of time will shift to China because of those advantages. The lower cost of labor, the lower cost of capital.”
Insight
Scaringe: Legacy EV launches fail due to uncompelling products, not customer hesitation
“There's been a number of EV launches from Existing manufacturers that haven't gone that well, and I think we get the causality backwards. We say, oh, it's because customers aren't ready to buy EVs. And I say, well, no, it's because the EV is not that compellin…”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Rivian reached positive gross margin in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
“And so finally end of 24, beginning of 25, we started to hit positive gross margin. So, Q-four of 24, Q-one of 25, positive gross margin.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Rivian Gen 2 will see steep autonomy feature improvements over Gen 1
“So that's now in the car and it, the slope of the curve in terms of progress and additional features is going to be really steep. Your gen one won't have that. Gen two's will.”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Rivian captures 35% US market share in premium electric SUVs
“If you draw the boundary diagram around electric premium vehicles, so like premium SUVs that are over 70,000 dollars, we're by far the best-selling vehicle in that class of vehicles, so we have about 35% market share as we draw that boundary diagram”
Disclosure
Scaringe: Autonomy Is Rivian's Largest Investment Area by Far
“And so for that reason, it's by far the biggest investment area for us in our business.”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: LiDAR sensor costs dropped from $75,000 to $200
“Six, seven years ago a LiDAR was 20,000 dollars. 15 years ago LiDAR was 75,000 dollars. Today a LiDAR is like 200 bucks. So it's a very low cost sensor.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Only Rivian and Tesla sell cars without dealership middle layers
“With the exception of us and Tesla, every manufacturer today sells through distributors, and distributors then on to dealers, or in a few cases, direct to dealers. But nonetheless, there's a middle layer.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Lifetime vehicle service revenue generates 2.0x to 2.5x initial price
“For every, every car that's sold, whatever its sale price is, the revenue over the life of the vehicle is generally around two to two and a half x the initial sale price. But that's over a 15 year time.”
Disclosure
Scaringe: Volkswagen Deal Was Driven by Urgency for Software-Defined Architecture
“I think that's a big part of what led to our deal with Volkswagen is, is we offered an ability to very quickly get to that, that state. I think every manufacturer should be thinking, how do we build a software to find architecture as quickly as possible? Becau…”
Insight
Scaringe: Electric vans offer massive cost advantages due to eliminated idling
“There's a true cost advantage to running electric vans for delivery. So the, you know, when you think about a delivery van, it spends a lot of its time sitting still. And so not having an engine idle, not having the same service frequency and all the engine ma…”
Insight
Scaringe: 'Move fast and break things' mindset fails in manufacturing operations
“There's a certain move fast and break things mindset. And that's great for technology. It's great for pushing boundaries, but it's very different than the skills and the cultural mindset you need to run stable operations where let's say if you're running a man…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Suppliers laughed at Rivian's electric SUV pitch in 2013–2014
“In, like, 2013, 20 14, I would go meet with suppliers, you know, and CEOs of very large suppliers and say, we're working on an electric SUV and electric truck as a flagship product. Following that, we want to launch more affordable electric SUVs. And the lack …”
Disclosure
Scaringe: Rivian avoids digital screen rearview mirrors because they can be disorienting
“There's like a team that like, would like to do it with the mirror as a screen. And I've been against it in part because if you have good visibility, so if you can see out the back, It's a little disorienting, and so I, my concern is you make 50% of people hap…”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: US is the only developed country requiring unbelted crash tests
“We also uniquely in the United States there's no other developed country that has this where we have unbelted tests.”
RJ Scaringe