Jevons Paradox

“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”

“And so, I think, in the end, we're gonna end up with this application where AI really does help radiologists. It helps radiologists get more and more higher, higher throughput, because the AI can do some parts, and the radiologists do some parts, and they're c…”

“I do think for example access to legal services is incredibly expensive in the U S and I'm sure this thing will play out in terms of increased demand, et cetera.”

“And this is like classic Jevons paradox, which is we lowered the cost of engineering, which means that everybody wants to do more of it, and now finally people can. And so you're gonna see this huge surplus in, in demand For engineers across the economy in ind…”

“If let's say that the deep seek moment that happened you know, last year, another moment like that happens where someone figures out a model that can do all the calculations with less power, less Semiconductors, less memory, all of that. If that happens, it is…”

“The changing the pricing for Opus actually, you know, you see this Jevons paradox, right? Like we lowered the price of it, but the consumption went up way, way more than what you would have expected.”

“And there's a little bit of this I think of it again like Jevin's paradox, but for labor, which is that we have people who become incredibly more productive. We actually, we've hired a lot more people because of that, because there's no shortage of work to do,…”

“I think this Jevons paradox idea is more plausible than ever, that if they bring the cost down, you'll be able to do much more, and you might have, like, let's say more agents running in parallel.”

“It's like the classic Jevons paradox thing where I think that there's probably now just a super set of things that, that can be built. So I don't know, you know, a given tech company might be way smaller, but there might be 50 or a hundred more tech companies,…”

“So if the barrier comes down, then actually you have the Jevons paradox, which is, like, you know, you actually, the demand for software actually goes up. It's cheaper and there's more”

“In science, I don't think there is a finite appetite or a finite capacity for science. I don't think science is like a scarcity thing. Like there's, you know, 100 more discoveries left to be made and then we'll be done. And so like we're displacing jobs. I thi…”

“As the cost per token comes down more and more, that's going to enable AI to be used in more and more contexts where previously it wasn't economically efficient. Now it will be. So that's going to fuel the demand.”

“The reason they're not being more widely used is not because people cannot afford a couple bucks for a million tokens. The reason they're not being more widely used is just like, they fundamentally lack some capabilities. So I disagree with this focus on the c…”

“Just because if you make something much cheaper, people will probably use much more of it up to a point. Although interestingly, there's a debate now as to whether mobile data traffic is actually slowing down. But that doesn't mean you'll be able to charge muc…”

“Yes, the car's a little bit cheaper, and yes, people drive a little bit more, but generally, these effects tend to be kind of small. They tend to be kind of 10 to 20%.”

“In fact, getting it very efficient may actually drive more use of it to where it'll increase and not decrease. And so I think there's a much broader view you have to take when someone says something's more efficient, it's, and they say it's going to solve all …”

“And so the paradox here would be, yes, the cost of developing any given piece of software falls, but the re, the reaction to that is a massive surge of demand for software capabilities. And so the result of that actually is, although it even, it looks like sta…”

“If you drive down the price of the cost of compute, then the reflexivity is people will consume a lot more of it. Now, this is also known as the Jevons paradox, right? As price goes, goes down, we demand more of it. The aggregate amount of Consumed, of the com…”

“The correction to that might be, if you lower the cost of energy, you might end up pursuing more energy-intensive forms of water-like desalination, so it might end up settling out at about the same price. And in fact, that's what we see in many places, is that…”