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United States

also referred to as: the us · u s · us

261 statements across 179 episodes · 97 bullish · 61 bearish · 167 people on the record · first statement Aug 24, 2015 by Brad Feld · said 4,767 times in 961 episodes since 2015 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (1521), Rory O'Driscoll (134), Jason Lemkin (83), Vlad Tenev (34), Hussein Kanji (31), Anastasios Angelopoulos (30), Solly Solomou (27), Jonathan Ross (24)

tap a year for its mentions
00500751,000150201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
075150201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0057510150201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 716 mentions in 100 episodes 7 per episode
2025 943 mentions in 115 episodes 8 per episode
2024 758 mentions in 114 episodes 7 per episode
2023 522 mentions in 103 episodes 5 per episode
2022 314 mentions in 90 episodes 3 per episode
2021 277 mentions in 69 episodes 4 per episode
2020 211 mentions in 61 episodes 3 per episode
2019 281 mentions in 75 episodes 4 per episode
2018 200 mentions in 56 episodes 4 per episode
2017 169 mentions in 61 episodes 3 per episode
2016 233 mentions in 78 episodes 3 per episode
2015 143 mentions in 39 episodes 4 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

Aug 24, 2015
Assertion Partly supported
Foundry Group restricts investments to US startups under $3M raised
“So if you've raised less than three million bucks, we're a potential target. And then we only invest in the US.”
Brad Feld Aug 24, 2015 ▶ 12:28 20 VC 065: FOUNDRY GROUP WEEK 1: Brad Feld: Founders Should Be Obsessed, Passion Belongs In The Bedroom
Aug 28, 2015 positive
Assertion Supported
Tictail hosts 85,000 brands selling over two million products
“We have more than 85,000 brands across 100. Yeah, no, it's incredible. Together they sell more than two million unique products. They're spread across 140 markets, although our growth is concentrated to five markets. Sweden, the UK, Germany, France, and of cou…”
Carl Waldekranz Aug 28, 2015 ▶ 8:38 FF 010: Becoming Europe's Hottest Startup with Carl Waldekranz, Co-Founder and CEO @ Tictail
Aug 31, 2015
Assertion Supported
Ljungman: European VC is 6-7x smaller than US, 12x at later stages
“Even though the, you know, I think the amount of capital that's being invested going into VC today is about 30% more than last year, we're still six or seven times smaller than the US. And if you go into the later stages, we're about 12 times smaller.”
Mattias Ljungman Aug 31, 2015 ▶ 9:54 20 VC 067: Scaling Startups Into Unicorns with Atomico's Mattias Ljungman and Carolina Brochado
Oct 9, 2015 positive
Assertion Supported
Berlin is significantly cheaper to operate in than comparable US cities
“And compared to most of the cities, or in contrast to most of the cities in the US that have the same sort of international footprint, it is incredibly cheap to live and operate in. That's not a Europe wide advantage, but that is something very special about B…”
Chad Fowler Oct 9, 2015 ▶ 5:32 FF 016: Chad Fowler, CTO @ Wunderlist, App Of The Year 2013
Nov 23, 2015
Insight
Replacing technical founders with MBA CEOs persists in Europe
“I think that idea has well and truly been replaced in the U S where it's okay to do that if you want to do that, but it's also okay to stay in charge. So you have, you know, very, very prominent cases like someone like Mark Zuckerberg, for example, or Jack Dor…”
Suranga Chandratilake Nov 23, 2015 ▶ 6:15 20 VC 090: Balderton Capital's General Partner, Suranga Chandratillake on What It Takes To Be A Great CEO
Nov 27, 2015 positive
Disclosure
Workable had 50% of its customers in the US before hiring there
“Essentially we had 50% of our customers in the United States, even before we had a single person there.”
Nikos Moraitakis Nov 27, 2015 ▶ 10:24 20 VC FF 024: Raising $33m in VC Funding with Nikos Moraitakis, Founder & CEO @ Workable
Nov 27, 2015 positive
Opinion
The US is unmatched globally for online sales and marketing talent
“When it comes to things like online, online marketing and sales the United States, I think, is no comparison to any other place in the world.”
Nikos Moraitakis Nov 27, 2015 ▶ 10:59 20 VC FF 024: Raising $33m in VC Funding with Nikos Moraitakis, Founder & CEO @ Workable
Nov 27, 2015 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moraitakis targets 100,000 US small businesses using Workable within five years
“I'm hoping we get a 100,000 small businesses in the United States use our recruiting software, but I don't know how we're going to get to that.”
Nikos Moraitakis Nov 27, 2015 ▶ 21:45 20 VC FF 024: Raising $33m in VC Funding with Nikos Moraitakis, Founder & CEO @ Workable
Jan 6, 2016 positive
Insight
Moehring: US venture capital trends predictably repeat later in Europe
“It's often quite easy to look at what's going on trend wise in the U S and then see those same, same things happen over here a bit later.”
Philipp Moehring Jan 6, 2016 ▶ 9:39 20 VC: Philipp Moehring, Head of AngelList Europe on Scaling Seed Stage Funding and Why 500 Is Not Your Traditional VC
Jan 18, 2016 negative
Insight
Destin: Europe penalizes startup failure far more harshly than the US
“And I think very often, especially in Europe, Founders are being made to feel extremely guilty when things don't work, whereas in the US you find these attitudes very different, which is like, hey, we tried, it was a big ambitious problem, you know, turns out …”
Fred Destin Jan 18, 2016 ▶ 15:06 20VC: Fred Destin @ Accel on Why Startups Fail & Founders Get Fired?
Jan 18, 2016 bullish
Opinion
Destin: US VC Ecosystem is Faster and More Professional Than Europe
“I think the US is still Faster, more transparent, more professional. I think there's a better, ah, there's a better VC landscape in the US. Just people understand, like I said before, you know, the more tolerant to people failing and losing money and so forth,…”
Fred Destin Jan 18, 2016 ▶ 34:35 20VC: Fred Destin @ Accel on Why Startups Fail & Founders Get Fired?
Jan 20, 2016 neutral
Insight
Enterprise software startups must win the US to become global leaders
“Ultimately, if you're building an enterprise software business today, you know, you want to become a global leader, it means becoming a leader in the US.”
James Cameron Jan 20, 2016 ▶ 15:16 20VC: James Cameron @ Accel on Building Great Startup Communities and The Rise of Enterprise and Cyber Security Software
Mar 9, 2016
Assertion Supported
Private equity and banking pathways into VC are more prevalent in Europe
“Or a third part path, which is more prevalent, I think, in Europe than in the US, you come in through the ranks of private equity or banking and then come in as an investment side.”
Christian Hernandez Mar 9, 2016 ▶ 21:53 20VC: Christian Hernandez on The Importance of Mobile and The Relationship Between Growth vs Revenue
Mar 11, 2016 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
De Masi: Only four global markets support a billion-dollar annual game
“Korea, Japan, China, the US, those are the four markets that can support a billion dollar gain in a year.”
Niccolo De Masi Mar 11, 2016 ▶ 19:12 20VC: Niccolo De Masi on The Bursting Of The Tech Bubble and What It Takes To Be A Celebrity Partner with Glu Mobile
Apr 1, 2016
Assertion Partly supported
Bhatt: Broker-dealer regulatory approval in the US takes at least a year
“Getting the green light from the regulators to be able to do business in the United States takes at least about a year and a lot of money.”
Baiju Bhatt Apr 1, 2016 ▶ 5:30 20VC: RobinHood's Baiju Bhatt on The Importance Of Design in Fintech and Having A 10X Better Product
Apr 25, 2016 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Wise: UK has world's second-highest per-capita e-commerce purchasing rate
“Britain has got the highest purchase rate of e-commerce products per capita of anywhere in the world apart from South Korea, well ahead of the US.”
James Wise Apr 25, 2016 ▶ 10:26 20VC: Europe's Youngest Series A Venture Partner, James Wise @ Balderton Capital on How To Get Into Venture & What The Future Of The VC Industry Looks Like
Jun 1, 2016
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Basu Trivedi: US AV adoption will be hybrid, Europe and Asia fleet-dominant
“So in Europe and Asia, where public transport is more prevalent and more used, I do think that a fleet-based approach, where you take out your phone, press a button, and an autonomous car comes and picks you up, But you don't necessarily own that car. It's sha…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 13:45 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Jun 13, 2016 neutral
Disclosure
Sapphire Ventures targets early-stage Series A funds in US, Europe, Israel
“We at Sapphire focus on early stage firms, US, Europe, and Israel, predominantly folks with series A exposure.”
Beezer Clarkson Jun 13, 2016 ▶ 6:44 20VC: What LP's Want In VCs with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
Jun 17, 2016
Assertion Partly supported
Orloff: US underbanked sector expands as shrinking middle class lacks financial bridges
“The United States is a very divided market between the banked, which is and the unbanked and then the sort of payday title pawn markets and there isn't this bridge between the worlds. That's a big and growing market given the shrinking middle class in the Unit…”
Sasha Orloff Jun 17, 2016 ▶ 14:13 20VC: Raising $150m, Meeting Yuri Milner & Revolutionising Mobile Finance with Sasha Orloff @ LendUp
Jun 17, 2016 bullish
Assertion Supported
Orloff: LendUp is the only US lender disbursing funds in 3.5 minutes
“We're the only lender in the United States where within three and a half minutes of not knowing anything about you right from your mobile phone, we can underwrite you, make a decision, and put money in your bank account.”
Sasha Orloff Jun 17, 2016 ▶ 16:29 20VC: Raising $150m, Meeting Yuri Milner & Revolutionising Mobile Finance with Sasha Orloff @ LendUp
Apr 7, 2017 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shedletsky: US will permanently fall behind without manufacturing automation
“If we don't automate, others will, and we won't be able to catch up, and I think it's important to keep that playing field as level as possible for as long as possible.”
Anna Shedletsky Apr 7, 2017 ▶ 4:12 20VC: How To Create FOMO For Investors, How To Manage VC Conversations & A Repeatable Process For Learning New Things with Anna Shedletsky, Founder & CEO @ Instrumental.ai
May 1, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Europe has 700,000 more engineers than the US
“We've got more engineers in Europe than the US by 700,000.”
Harry Stebbings May 1, 2017 ▶ 23:32 20VC: Explosion of First Time Funds, Only 1 Mega Fund Raised: What The Heck Happened in Q1 Venture Markets with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
Jun 2, 2017 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Schrömgens: All of Trivago's direct peers were listed in the US
“Looking at Trivago business model, there is a set of Peers. So, so set of company who you would say like in the same space as us, every single one of them is listed in the U S yeah. So there is none of them is really listed in Europe.”
Rolf Schrömgens Jun 2, 2017 ▶ 14:04 20VC: Trivago Founder on Why Incumbents Have Lost Their Main Business Model, Why You Have To Destroy Everything Ego Related & Why Transparency Is The Key To Capital Flow
Aug 11, 2017 negative
Assertion Supported
Hargreaves: The US is significantly over-retailed compared to European cities
“Keep in mind that the United States is wildly over retail in comparison to other developed countries. The U.S. Has some Retail space per capita than most major European cities.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 11:52 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Sep 18, 2017 negative
Opinion
Volpi: Europe Has Far Fewer Skilled Investors Than the US
“There are far fewer skilled investors in the European market than there are here in the U S”
Mike Volpi Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 12:47 20VC: Index's Mike Volpi on Making The Move From Player To Coach, What It Takes To Build Generation Defining Brands & How Europe Really Stacks Up To The US Venture Market
Dec 8, 2017 negative
Assertion Supported
Bansal: U.S. immigrant visa red tape delayed founding his first startup
“I had to wait to start a company, not just AppDynamics. I had some other ideas that I wanted to start a company on, but I was in the U S on a immigrant visa and it's really hard because of the red tape here for an immigrant entrepreneur to start a company.”
Jyoti Bansal Dec 8, 2017 ▶ 2:55 20VC: AppDynamic's Jyoti Bansal on The Sale vs IPO Process with AppDynamics' $3.7Bn Exit & The 3 Simple Things VCs Look For When Investing In Startups
Jan 5, 2018 positive
Prediction Partly held up
US regulations will soon permit beyond visual line-of-sight drone flights
“Pretty soon we're going to see regulations that allow for flights over people here in the United States and beyond visual line-of-sight flights.”
Ben Marcus Jan 5, 2018 ▶ 15:32 20VC: What Is The Right Drone Investing Strategy, The Catalyst That Will Take Drones to 100s of Millions & Will Amazon and Google Win The War of The Airspace with Ben Marcus, Founder & CEO @ Airmap
Jan 8, 2018 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hans Tung: US E-Commerce Penetration Lags China's 15% at Just 8-9%
“Amazon has about 40% market share in the US. And e-commerce penetration into offline retail as a percentage of offline retail in the US is only eight or nine percent. In China, the same ratio is about 15%.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 8:13 20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Enterprise cloud and SaaS adoption in China lags decades behind US
“In the U S the transition to the cloud and to SaaS applications is pretty mature, right. And started in the early 2000. So there's a retirement now, the perpetual license, right. And even upon premises that I think is still much, much earlier in China.”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 8:07 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chinese tech sales models will eventually converge with US inside sales
“I think over time, they're going to converge. You know, I think China is going to go through the same evolution that the US did, right, 10 years ago in moving from field sales and person sales to inside sales to lightweight demand gen. I think it's as people b…”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 11:42 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018 bullish
Opinion
Chinese tech ecosystem is out-innovating the US in some areas
“Now the whole Chinese startup and tech ecosystem is incredibly vibrant and incredibly strong, and in some ways, even out innovating the U S right.”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 12:25 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Jan 10, 2018
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Uncustomized enterprise software deal sizes in China are smaller than US
“If you sell pure software and it's relatively lightweight and it has minimal customization, that the deal sizes will be, you know, much smaller than in the U S.”
Crystal Huang Jan 10, 2018 ▶ 9:26 20VC: 3 Key Differences Between US and Asian Tech Markets & With Such Large Incumbents Chasing Early Acquisitions, Is There A Market For Later Stage VC with Crystal Huang, Investor @ GGV Capital
Mar 12, 2018 neutral
Assertion Supported
Alex Taussig: US e-commerce accounts for only 10% of total retail
“E-commerce is still only about 10% of total retail in the United States.”
Alex Taussig Mar 12, 2018 ▶ 11:38 20VC: Lightspeed's Alex Taussig on VC Risk Mentality, The Current State of Retail & The Mechanics of Cash Flow
Apr 6, 2018 negative
Opinion
US Workforce Training Wrongly Discourages Workers From Taking Smart Risks
“We spend too much time in the United States training our people in the workforce to not take risks, not take smart risks, and really our people sort of shy away from risk.”
Darian Shirazi Apr 6, 2018 ▶ 6:35 20VC: Why Facebook Will Be The Company To Succeed in Crypto, Why Founders Should Be Actively Angel Investing & Commonalities of Great Leadership From Mark Zuckerberg to Mark Pincus with Darian Shirazi, Founder & CEO @ Radius
Aug 27, 2018
Assertion Supported
US productivity and innovation growth has dropped below one percent
“Economic productivity in the United States and innovation in the United States has slowed down from just below two percent to below a percent over the course of the past few decades.”
Daniel Gross Aug 27, 2018 ▶ 7:58 20VC: The Commonalities In The Makings Of Truly Great People, How Silicon Valley Will Become The Home For Crypto and Frontier Tech Once Again & Why Games Are Such A Good Tool To Understand Human Motivation with Daniel Gross, Founder & Pioneer, Head of AI
Oct 22, 2018 positive
Opinion
Xie: Privacy coins matter more under corrupt governments than in the US
“There are a lot of legitimate cases where, let's say that someone lives in a society where their governments are very corrupt, and they want to protect themselves from their own governments. I think that a privacy coin is extremely important. It's To me, less …”
Linda Xie Oct 22, 2018 ▶ 10:08 20VC: Scalar Capital's Linda Xjie on Who Will Win The Smart Contract War, The Future of Exchanges: Centralised or Decentralised & The Pros and Cons of Differing Privacy Coins
Oct 25, 2019 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Reddit Was the Fifth Most Visited Website in the US in 2019
“Today, this company ranks as the number five most visited website in the US”
Harry Stebbings Oct 25, 2019 ▶ 0:14 20VC: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman on Scaling Teams; What Works and What Does Not, A CEO's Relationship with Stress and Managing It & How To Structure Internal Decision-Making Effectively
Mar 6, 2020 negative
Opinion
Diversity pipeline problems are an excuse; talent is evenly distributed
“When people say it's a pipeline problem, it sounds like a little, like an excuse to me. It's BS, honestly. If you look at the US or, you know, the world, talent is evenly distributed. Opportunities are not.”
Iman Abuzeid Mar 6, 2020 ▶ 25:18 20VC: Why Most Founders Do Not Structure Their Fundraise Correctly, The Pros Of Having An MBA As A Startup Founder & How To Manage The Psychology Of Being CEO and Overcome Self Doubt with Iman Abuzeid, Founder & CEO @ Incredible Health
Apr 8, 2020 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Destin: ~1,200 US VC funds launched over past decade
“Excluding nano funds, which aren't tracked, there is something in the region of 1100 or 1200 new funds that have been established in the US over the last 10 or 11 years or so.”
Fred Destin Apr 8, 2020 ▶ 14:31 20VC: Are VCs Still "Open For Business", How VCs Attitude To Risk Has Changed & The 2 Most Valuable Assets To Founders Today with Fred Destin, Founding Partner @ Stride VC
Sep 11, 2020 negative
Opinion
Alex Tew: The UK has very few publicly successful entrepreneurs
“Richard Branson, childhood hero in many ways, and one of the very few examples of publicly successful entrepreneurs in the UK. Obviously, the US has many, many more”
Alex Tew Sep 11, 2020 ▶ 28:17 20VC: Calm Founder Alex Tew on What It Takes To Build Viral Products Today, The Current State of Customer Acquisition Costs, What Makes The Best Brands
Sep 28, 2020 positive
Opinion
Luckey: China is far better at large-scale manufacturing than the U.S.
“If China wanted to have a good blue water Navy, they would be kicking our butts. They are so much better at building things at large scale quickly than we are.”
Palmer Luckey Sep 28, 2020 ▶ 21:59 20VC: Anduril Founder, Palmer Luckey: "I Am Here To Build a $50Bn Company", How Palmer Evaluates His Relationship To Money Pre & Post Oculus' $2.3Bn Exit & Why The US DOD Needs To Be More Like China in It's Approach
Oct 5, 2020 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Black female founders received just $250M of $130B US VC in 2018
“It is catching up to the hundred and thirty billion dollars that was It was put into venture capital in 2018 in the United States alone, where black women received, I think, two hundred and fifty million of that.”
Arlan Hamilton Oct 5, 2020 ▶ 26:07 20VC: Arlan Hamilton: "We Have Come For Cake, Not The Crumbs", Arlan's Plan To Return $1Bn in 10 Years, Why Arlan Plans To Giveaway or Invest 90% of Her Wealth & What The LP Class Can Do To Ensure More Under-Represented Managers Get Funded
Nov 30, 2020 bullish
Prediction Held up
Tenev predicts Robinhood will be global and ubiquitous in America by 2025
“So I think the Robin hood of five years from now will be global. It will be ubiquitous in the U S if we are successful, it'll kind of shatter the taboos that we have around finance and financial services.”
Vlad Tenev Nov 30, 2020 ▶ 33:47 20VC: Robinhood Founder Vlad Tenev on The Single Most Important Thing Leadership is Responsible For, How To Manage Fear and Self-Doubt as a Leader & The Future of Fintech; Bundled or Unbundled
Jan 4, 2021 positive
Opinion
Gurley: Capitalist benevolent dictatorships operate more efficiently than the US
“If you have a benevolent dictatorship attached to capitalism, you can actually fix problems faster and cause capitalism to, I think, achieve what it's meant to achieve in a much more efficient way than where we are in the US.”
Bill Gurley Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 30:19 20VC: Bill Gurley and Howard Marks: What Happened In 2020? What Can We Expect Looking Forward to 2021?
Jan 4, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Howard Marks: US unemployment hit 50-year low without driving inflation
“And, you know, as of January, the unemployment rate in this country was three and a half percent, the lowest in 50 years, and still no inflation.”
Howard Marks Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 12:23 20VC: Bill Gurley and Howard Marks: What Happened In 2020? What Can We Expect Looking Forward to 2021?
Jan 21, 2021 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dudum: Healthcare is US's last untouched multi-trillion dollar industry
“So, you know, I've been building for a long time, and it was a couple years ago that I really fell in love with the healthcare space, fell in love with the opportunity to help a lot of people, but also to digitize, I think, probably the last multi-trillion dol…”
Andrew Dudum Jan 21, 2021 ▶ 3:39 20VC: Hims Founder Andrew Dudum on Hims Going Public, The Reasoning and Benefits of SPACs, The Biggest Misconceptions of Successful Company Building & Wall St's Changing Perceptions Towards Growth and Profitability
Feb 18, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Simkoff: States Title became the eighth-largest US title business in five years
“We're only four or five years old now, but have already become the eighth largest title in closing business in the United States, and well on our way to becoming number one.”
Max Simkoff Feb 18, 2021 ▶ 4:15 20VC Special: The Real Estate Fintech OGs on Why This Is Not The End For The Bay Area and What Can Be Done To Solve It, The Pros and Cons of Working with Corporate Investors and How Leading Their Teams Has Fundamentally Changed in a COVID World
Mar 8, 2021 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Ek: US tech ecosystem outside Silicon Valley and Seattle lags Europe
“If you take Silicon Valley and Seattle out of it, the US actually would be worse than Europe if you took those two out of it.”
Daniel Ek Mar 8, 2021 ▶ 37:29 20VC: Spotify Founder Daniel Ek on Optimising Decision-Making, Structuring Effective Learning Processes, The Trials and Tribulations in The Transition From Founder To CEO & The Future of Building Prima Materia with Shakil Khan
Mar 8, 2021 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ek predicts US-Europe tech funding gap will close in five years
“If you fast forward five years, there won't be much of a delta between the two, so that's not going to be the problem.”
Daniel Ek Mar 8, 2021 ▶ 36:52 20VC: Spotify Founder Daniel Ek on Optimising Decision-Making, Structuring Effective Learning Processes, The Trials and Tribulations in The Transition From Founder To CEO & The Future of Building Prima Materia with Shakil Khan
Mar 11, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Sandell: LoanPal finances 40% of US residential solar loans
“They back about 40% of solar loans in the United States today.”
Scott Sandell Mar 11, 2021 ▶ 35:14 20VC: NEA's Scott Sandell on SPACS and Why Liquidity is One of the Challenges of our Time, Why We Are At An Inflection Point For Secondaries & Why There Is Nothing To Suggest The Boom Will Not Continue
Mar 26, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Velez: Brazilian consumers face 450% APRs and massive banking concentration
“When you go to Brazil and you see customers paying 450% APRs and paying a ton of different fees and waiting four months to open a bank account, or you go to Mexico and you see five banks owning 90% of all the assets of the system, the pain is 10 X where you mi…”
David Vélez Mar 26, 2021 ▶ 18:45 20VC: Nubank CEO David Velez on Scaling Nubank to a $25BN Company, Why What Makes a Great Founder Does Not Make a Great CEO & The Responsibility Framework and How Leaders Can Use It To Drive Efficiency
Mar 26, 2021 positive
Insight
Velez: Building tech in LATAM impacts 99% versus 1% in US
“US and Europe is too easy. You're going to work very, very, very hard to make the life of the one percent, five percent better. If you move to Latin America, you're going to work very, very hard to make the life of 99% of the people, 70% better. So, ultimately…”
David Vélez Mar 26, 2021 ▶ 30:30 20VC: Nubank CEO David Velez on Scaling Nubank to a $25BN Company, Why What Makes a Great Founder Does Not Make a Great CEO & The Responsibility Framework and How Leaders Can Use It To Drive Efficiency
Sep 22, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Pinterest signed up over half the US population via Google SEO
“So as we did that, that was really successful, and we ended up signing up, you know, like over half of the US up to Pinterest with, you know, a pretty high retention rate.”
Casey Winters Sep 22, 2021 ▶ 33:07 Welcome 20Growth: How To Hire a Head of Growth? What are Signs of World-Class Talent? How To Structure the Process? How To Onboard Growth Teams? The Relationship Between Head of Growth and CEO and more with Casey Winters, Chief Product Officer @ Eventbrit
Sep 30, 2021 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rabois: 83% of US homes are commodities, not unique assets
“And in truth, most homes, when I say most, I mean, 83% of homes in the United States are more like a commodity.”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 8:37 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Sep 30, 2021 bullish
Prediction Held up
Rabois: Opendoor will cover all US markets except possibly Bay Area
“So literally everywhere in the United States are going to be able to, you know, buy and sell homes through Opendoor except maybe the Bay Area.”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 26:13 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Sep 30, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Rabois: Phoenix home prices decayed at most 2% monthly in 2008
“No market in the United States actually collapsed very fast. Like even in Phoenix, which was one of the most affected markets in 2008, the greatest decay in any 30 day period was about two percent.”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 17:56 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Sep 30, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Square reduced merchant onboarding from weeks to instant approval for 93%
“Before Square, people sometimes forget, before Square in the United States to get access to the credit card infrastructure. You can apply, in quotes, for a merchant account And that would take three weeks. It would require a credit check and a manual investiga…”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 22:01 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Sep 30, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Rabois: Diversified US residential real estate lost no money in 2008
“If you studied residential real estate in the United States over the last century, had you been relatively well diversified across all markets in the US, you would not have lost money even in 2008. So most US markets do not move in tandem or Historically have …”
Keith Rabois Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 18:36 20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Oct 25, 2021 bullish
Assertion Supported
Will Shu: European online food delivery penetration remains at just 3%
“Online penetration of food is three to five percent still today. Now, I think the US sort of leapfrogged a lot during COVID, but if you look at Europe, It's still in that, you know, one meal out of 21 a week is online. So I think we're super, super early.”
Will Shu Oct 25, 2021 ▶ 12:56 20VC: Deliveroo Founder Will Shu on The IPO This Year, The Rise of Quick Commerce and The Fierce Competition with Uber Eats
Jan 12, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JOKR Leases Cost $3k-$5k/mo in Mexico vs $15k-$20k in US
“In Mexico, our average lease cost for the type of warehouses that we are leasing is in between the 3000 to 5000 US dollars per month, which is obviously a fraction of what we would pay in the United States, where lease costs are then rather in between the 15 t…”
Ralf Wenzel Jan 12, 2022 ▶ 19:26 20VC: The Memo: Never Before Revealed Metrics; A Full Breakdown of Unit Economics Behind JOKR, How Does Emerging Markets Compare to Developed Economies & The Biggest Misnomers on Quick Commerce with Ralf Wenzel, Founder & CEO @ JOKR
Jan 12, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US Quick Commerce Takes Twice as Long to Reach LATAM Margins
“So it takes twice as long for the United States to achieve the same contribution margins as in Latin America, but over a five to 10 years horizon, you will see margins converging to very, very similar levels.”
Ralf Wenzel Jan 12, 2022 ▶ 23:16 20VC: The Memo: Never Before Revealed Metrics; A Full Breakdown of Unit Economics Behind JOKR, How Does Emerging Markets Compare to Developed Economies & The Biggest Misnomers on Quick Commerce with Ralf Wenzel, Founder & CEO @ JOKR
Jan 12, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fresh Produce Margins Are Significantly Higher in LATAM Than US
“The product margins for fresh produce in Latin America are significantly higher than the product margins for fresh produce in the United States.”
Ralf Wenzel Jan 12, 2022 ▶ 15:18 20VC: The Memo: Never Before Revealed Metrics; A Full Breakdown of Unit Economics Behind JOKR, How Does Emerging Markets Compare to Developed Economies & The Biggest Misnomers on Quick Commerce with Ralf Wenzel, Founder & CEO @ JOKR
Jan 26, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neman: Sweetgreen Can Scale to 6,000 Locations in the US
“I like to remind myself, you know, we have a 150 restaurants. We can have probably five or 6000 just in the US. So all of these new ideas that sometimes we get excited about, just think about it, like if we just scaled our core business alone, the opportunity …”
John Neman Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 38:30 20VC: Sweetgreen Founder Jonathan Neman on Leadership Lessons from Managing Through COVID, The Importance of Failing Fast and Iterating & How the Best Leaders Bring Together Brand, Capital Allocation and Strategy
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Doerr: EVs will reach price parity in the US by 2024
“This is key result one dot one to achieve price performance parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in the US by 2024. That means they cost 35,000 dollars and in India and China importantly by 2030 where the cost target has to be 11,000 dollars.”
John Doerr Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 13:37 How I Bought 12% of Google for $12M; How VC is Fixing Climate Change | John Doerr Full Interview · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Finkelstein: 4.6 million new US businesses registered in 2021
“I think the numbers were like 4.6 million new business registrations happened in 20, 21 alone in the United States, like this massive jump from a decade earlier.”
Harley Finkelstein Mar 11, 2022 ▶ 29:16 Shopify President, Harley Finkelstein on What is Being a Good Husband | Full Interview · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2022 bullish
Assertion Supported
Shopify processes 10% of all e-commerce in the United States
“10% of all e-commerce in the United States is done via Shopify.”
Harley Finkelstein Mar 11, 2022 ▶ 20:47 Shopify President, Harley Finkelstein on What is Being a Good Husband | Full Interview · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 20, 2022
Assertion Supported
Sid Sijbrandij: All GitLab executive group members reside in the US
“If I look at the e-group at GitLab, my reports, and all of them are located in the US.”
Sid Sijbrandij Mar 20, 2022 ▶ 8:46 Sid Sijbrandij: How I Founded GitLab; Remote Work vs In-Person; CEO Coaches | 20VC · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 21, 2022
Disclosure
Sequoia launches Arc, an eight-week seed catalyst program for US and Europe
“So arc is an eight week seed catalyst program for us founders and European founders. It's going to be two separate cohorts and we actually launch in Europe first.”
Luciana Lixandru Mar 21, 2022 ▶ 33:38 20VC Exclusive: Sequoia's Luciana Lixandru Unveils Sequoia's New 8 Week Accelerator, Arc | Biggest Takeaways from Working with Doug Leone and Roelof Botha | The Journey From a Small Town In Romania to Partner @ Sequoia
Jun 15, 2022
Insight
Fishman: Referral loops fail in US edtech due to social stigma
“And what we found is that the problem with a invite or sort of referral loop in the United States is that there's a huge stigma associated with needing a tutor. And so parents Don't want to tell other parents that their kid is seeing a tutor because it makes t…”
Adam Fishman Jun 15, 2022 ▶ 23:55 Adam Fishman: Takeaways from Lyft and Patreon; How to Build Viral Loops | 20VC #897 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2022 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Lanzone: Over 10% of US marriages originate from Tinder
“It's over 10% of all marriages come from Tinder, which is different than its reputation, and I've seen it.”
Jim Lanzone Jul 29, 2022 ▶ 54:53 Yahoo CEO Jim Lanzone: The Yahoo Turnaround Plan | 20VC #911 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 23, 2022
Assertion Supported
LATAM tech penetration is 1.5% of GDP versus 52% in the US
“When you look at that tech penetration index in a more developed country like the United States, that's around 52%. Even if you look at, you know, China, that number is 20%. You look at India, it's 15%. But when you look at what the tech penetration level is a…”
Julio Vasconcellos Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 44:15 Julio Vasconcellos: Scaling to $100M and 1,200 Employees and then Cratering | 20VC #928 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 2, 2022 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Ilishayev: GoPuff covers one-third of the United States
“We cover a third of the U S”
Rafael Ilishayev Nov 2, 2022 ▶ 54:53 GoPuff CEO Rafael Ilishayev: The Plan to Make GoPuff Profitable by 2024 | 20VC #944 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 4, 2022
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: US 10-year real interest rates experienced a 240-basis-point swing
“When the United States, for example, we went from on the tenure negative a hundred basis points, real interest rates, -100 basis points today, about a 140 positive basis points. So it's a 240 basis point swing in real interest rates.”
Michael Mauboussin Nov 4, 2022 ▶ 42:35 Michael Mauboussin: The Single Biggest Mistake Investors Make In Decision-Making | 20VC #945 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Escobari: Over half of General Atlantic's assets and staff are outside US
“More than half of our people and more than half of our assets are outside the United States”
Martin Escobari Nov 11, 2022 ▶ 33:36 Martin Escobari: How to Invest During a Recession; Negotiation Tips; Developing Markets | 20VC #948 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 7, 2022 negative
Opinion
Process-driven product leadership is a bigger issue in Europe than the US
“The problematic behaviors that you're describing, which by the way, you are spot on. And I hate to say this cause I absolutely love Europe, but it's a bigger problem in Europe than it is in the U S. And the re the reason is because so many of those people are …”
Marty Cagan Dec 7, 2022 ▶ 59:58 Marty Cagan: Product Lessons from Steve Jobs and Elon Musk; Why do we idolize engineers? | 20VC #957 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 9, 2022 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Pittman: Half of US internet traffic once flowed through AOL
“Half of the traffic of the internet came through AOL in the US.”
Bob Pittman Dec 9, 2022 ▶ 31:52 Bob Pittman: How I Went from Creator of MTV to CEO of iHeartMedia | 20VC #958 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 16, 2022
Assertion Supported
Partovi: Only five U.S. states mandate high school computer science graduation
“There's five states in the US that require every student must learn computer science to graduate high school.”
Hadi Partovi Dec 16, 2022 ▶ 57:48 Hadi Partovi: How I Became an Advisor to Mark Zuckerberg; Lessons from Steve Ballmer | 20VC #961 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 13, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: The US healthcare sector shows zero software spending downturn
“In the US, there's no downturn in healthcare right now. There's nothing, and I can't imagine it's different in the UK.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 8:29 Jason Lemkin: WTF is Going On in VC? Are LPs Investing in New Funds? | 20VC #965 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 13, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Postmates sold for nearly $3B despite being the third-place player
“Postmates, like, you know, I used it, but in the US, I think it was number three or number four, and it still sold for almost three billion dollars.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 13, 2023 ▶ 2:32 Jason Lemkin: WTF is Going On in VC? Are LPs Investing in New Funds? | 20VC #965 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 18, 2023
Insight
Lower labor costs in China favor human growth operations over product automation
“The most popular role in China's growth space is called operation. It doesn't exist here in US at all. I was confused initially, but what is behind that is because the average labor cost in China is lower. So a lot of things that tend to be automated here in t…”
Hila Qu Jan 18, 2023 ▶ 59:22 Hila Qu: The Ultimate Guide to Product Growth at Your Startup | 20VC #967 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Somerville: Venture capital will re-concentrate focus on the US over emerging markets
“I think it depends on the region, but yes, I think there will be more of a re-emphasis on the US but certain, certain areas like people are much more excited about India and there continues to be interest in investing there.”
Hunter Somerville Mar 4, 2023 ▶ 49:27 Hunter Somerville: Biggest Mistake LPs Make; Deep Dive into Secondary Markets | 20VC #985 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 5, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salguero: Only 2% of Americans are predisposed to grass-fed beef
“By the way, it's like two percent of the United States are predisposed to eat grass-fed beef.”
Mike Salguero Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 23:43 Mike Salguero: How I Grew ButcherBox to $600M/year in Revenue; Tips for Influencer Marketing | E998 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Marcus: The United States is on the path toward an empire's decline
“When you look at the tea leaves right now, it's really not looking great. It's it feels a little bit like we're on, on the path of an end of an empire of sorts. And that's probably reversible if there's concerted effort to actually really focus on what America…”
David Marcus Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 18:32 David Marcus: How I Came to Lead PayPal; Why FB's Crypto Failed; How AI Fixes Inequality | E1001 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2023 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Marcus: Xapo left the US due to a lack of regulatory clarity
“One good example is actually the first customer that, that we announced that, that light spark, which is a bank, a European bank now, which is called Xapo. That company was actually in the US and they left the US because they didn't feel like they had the regu…”
David Marcus Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 19:17 David Marcus: How I Came to Lead PayPal; Why FB's Crypto Failed; How AI Fixes Inequality | E1001 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2023 negative
Opinion
Marcus: Overuse of sanctions is driving US allies away from the dollar
“You can see all kinds of countries that used to be allies of the US trying to pull away from the dollar and the magnetic force field, so to speak of the dollar. And I think that's the result of, You know, overuse of sanctions and, you know, misalignment intern…”
David Marcus Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 19:50 David Marcus: How I Came to Lead PayPal; Why FB's Crypto Failed; How AI Fixes Inequality | E1001 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carney: Universal US bank deposit guarantees cannot happen quickly
“It has to be duly authorized, and in the US that requires an act of Congress. So the effective way to guarantee all those deposits is not going to happen quickly.”
Mark Carney May 1, 2023 ▶ 11:32 Mark Carney: First Republic Bank Fails; Will Interest Rates Rise? Global Warming's Net Zero | E1008 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2023 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Carney: US Clean Energy Investment Will Overtake Europe Within Years
“They have the U S in the, in this space of the time, since we last spoke has gone from well behind Europe, the UK, amongst the major industrialized countries in addressing climate change to putting in place, you know, the measures now driving with the investme…”
Mark Carney May 1, 2023 ▶ 40:41 Mark Carney: First Republic Bank Fails; Will Interest Rates Rise? Global Warming's Net Zero | E1008 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
LeCun: Switzerland is the only European nation matching US academic jobs
“The only European countries that can rival country that rival the US in terms of the quality of job for an academic or a scientist is Switzerland.”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 56:54 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2023
Assertion Supported
US first growth hires command $150k to $250k cash plus equity
“In the United States, which again is maybe not an assumption that I should have, but in the United States, I think it's a reasonable assumption that a 150 to two 50 cash and then some sizable equity packages is the range that you're looking for.”
Ryan Wiggins May 19, 2023 ▶ 35:23 Ryan Wiggins: Scaling WhatsApp from 0-100M; How to Build a Growth Team; Mercury Neobank | E1016 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2023
Assertion Supported
WhatsApp user growth in the US has sometimes been flat or negative
“The United States has been a country where WhatsApp has some adoption but has it quite reached a scale of you know, total growth and it's sometimes been flat and sometimes even negative over that course of time.”
Ryan Wiggins May 19, 2023 ▶ 6:51 Ryan Wiggins: Scaling WhatsApp from 0-100M; How to Build a Growth Team; Mercury Neobank | E1016 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 31, 2023 positive
Opinion
Allemann: Global sports brands must be firmly rooted in the US
“If you want to be a sports brand, you have to be in the U S and you have to be firmly rooted in the U S as you have to be in many other countries like Japan, UK.”
David Allemann May 31, 2023 ▶ 16:11 David Allemann: How I founded On Running; Working with Roger Federer; Brand Marketing Tips | E1021 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Summers: US tax gap will reach $8 trillion over next decade
“We have a gap between taxes that are owed, that everybody agrees are owed under the current law, and taxes actually collected that will total eight trillion dollars over the next 10 years.”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 15:28 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Larry Summers: The US Must Substantially Raise Tax Revenues
“Ultimately we are on an unsustainable path. And my view is that we're going to have to raise revenues quite substantially because I don't think there's going to be a lot of scope For cutting spending, given the way in which our population is aging, given the w…”
Larry Summers Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 13:09 Larry Summers: How the Fed screwed up; What a Trump win would do to the economy | E1024 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 14, 2023 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sunak: UK creates more unicorns than any country except US and China
“More than France and Germany combined, more unicorns than anywhere apart from the US and China.”
Rishi Sunak Jun 14, 2023 ▶ 5:12 Rishi Sunak: The UK's New High Potential Visa; Rishi's £100M AI Task Force | E1025 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebrun: Strict Immigration Restrictions Will Eventually Harm US AI Dominance
“Immigration may be laws, may be something that will be a problem eventually in the US because the talent is so distributed with the new, you know, you can learn deep learning very easily from everywhere in the world on a tablet today, and it will be more and m…”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:06:59 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 26, 2023
Insight
Babayigit: UK and US Candidates Wanting Cash Over Equity Signal Misalignment
“It's a bit cultural dependent because, you know, there are parts of Europe where that's just not a thing. Like people just, people think you're trying to pull a fast one on them. If you say, I'm going to give you equity. And so it is, you know, case by case. B…”
Akin Babayigit Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 1:09:23 Akin Babayigit: How Tripledot Studios Became #1 Fastest-Growing Company in Europe | E1030 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2023 negative
Opinion
Kurgan: 2000s European tech lacked the US culture of second chances for failed founders
“The US, if you have failed as an executive after building a new startup, you know, they will give you a second and a third chance. At that time, Europe was not like that.”
Stephane Kurgan Jul 28, 2023 ▶ 54:50 Stephane Kurgan: Lessons Scaling King from 100 Employees to 2,400; How to Find Great Talent | E1041 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 21, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huber: Wealth redistribution would revert to 80/20 inequality within five years
“You could take all the money in the United States right now. You take all the money and you could divide it equally among everybody. Take all the money and divide it equally. And in five, 10, 15 years, you could argue about the timeframe. In five years, at lea…”
Nick Huber Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 33:09 Nick Huber: Biggest Lies of Silicon Valley; Lost Art of Delegation; How to Grow Your Network | E1051 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Velez: Nubank's Brazilian market penetration exceeds JPMorgan's in the US
“I don't think JP Morgan can say that about customers of theirs in the US.”
David Vélez Sep 11, 2023 ▶ 17:56 David Velez: How AI Changes The Future of Finance | E1059 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2023 positive
Opinion
Rauch: US system coalesces into fairness better than Argentina's
“And I noticed that even though like things can be in the short term, unjust, I think the system coalesces into fairness and justice much more frequently here than where I come from.”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 14:51 Guillermo Rauch: Why Great Companies are Defined by How Many Things They Say No To | E1069 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 6, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Zwillinger: The Average American Buys Eight Pairs of Shoes Annually
“Yeah, I mean, I think, look, the average American consumer buys eight pairs of shoes a year. That's men, women, and child. And so that's about two and a half billion pairs of shoes sold every year.”
Joey Zwillinger Nov 6, 2023 ▶ 43:26 Joey Zwillinger: From $4.1BN to $142M Market Cap;Why Public Markets Have Written Allbirds Off |E1078 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 8, 2023 bullish
Assertion Supported
Cohen: US YouTube connected TV watch time now exceeds Netflix
“One of our very interesting stats I've noticed more recently was, so in the US, more hours are consumed of YouTube on connected TVs than Netflix.”
Danny Cohen Nov 8, 2023 ▶ 5:46 Danny Cohen: From Leading the BBC to Leading Venture Capitalist |E1079 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Petersen: Remote US workers will lose jobs to offshore talent arbitrage
“By the way, I think remote work can really work, but it's not going to benefit the people who think like, it's not going to be people making 250,000 dollars a year hanging out in Jackson Hole. It's going to be geniuses in the developing world Making, you know,…”
Ryan Petersen Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 56:59 Ryan Petersen: Why Velocity not Speed is Most Important in Company Building | E1081 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 29, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only 120 elite growth practitioners exist in the US, estimates Cabane
“All, almost all people that like my level of experience in the US, right? There's like, there's less than 200, there's a 120 people, okay?”
Guillaume Cabane Nov 29, 2023 ▶ 1:07:48 Guillaume Cabane: Why Your First Growth Hire Should Be a Former Founder | E1088 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 1, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
HelloFresh directly integrated 1,500 US suppliers to boost per-order margins
“That at certain points in time, we felt that really going from five wholesale suppliers to integrating with 1500 suppliers all over the US directly to capture that margin upside, to get much better freshness and quality, that this is something that drives a lo…”
Dominik Richter Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 14:05 Dominik Richter: You Only Have Two Options With VC Funding | E1089 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Opinion
Richter: US market competition is 10x tougher than in Europe
“Everything that you know about competition will be 10 X what you'll find in the US.”
Dominik Richter Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 0:18 Dominik Richter: You Only Have Two Options With VC Funding | E1089 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 8, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sanjit Biswas: Heavy Class 8 trucks are the slowest vehicle segment to electrify
“And then slowest has been really in the U S and it actually varies by regions of the U S. Some of that is because our geography is so broad, right? Like we've got a lot longer distances here to cover and the very slowest has actually been heavy vehicles, what …”
Sanjit Biswas Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 1:03:34 Sanjit Biswas: Samsara's $18BN Market Cap & $1BN in ARR in 8 Years | E1092 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2023 positive
Insight
Dave Powers: Hoka succeeded in US by dominating run specialty first
“That was our success in the U S is really kill it in the run specialty channel and the core outdoor channel. And then you can move out beyond that.”
Dave Powers Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 21:27 Dave Powers: The Meteoric Rise of Hoka Running | E1098 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Plantenga: Vinted's initial expansion tests in the US and UK horribly failed
“And then we got really excited and I was like, okay, let's just test some stuff in the UK and the U S which horribly failed.”
Thomas Plantenga Feb 12, 2024 ▶ 23:59 Thomas Plantenga & Alex Taussig: Vinted CEO's Ultimate Guide to Scaling Marketplaces | E1114 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Nicolai Tangen says European growth lags the US due to lower ambition
“It is, of course, holding Europe back compared to the US. Now, there are several reasons why US, why Europe is growing less fast than the US. And it struck me, I spent a month in New York in November and met with a lot of companies, and you just, there is a di…”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 27:24 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: AI and Automation Will Enable US Manufacturing to Return Onshore
“I think there's some legit arguments that AI with manufacturing can bring some things back on shore in the U S and the U S more than any other nation.”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 31:08 Joe Lonsdale: The Future of TikTok; Is it a Danger to US National Security? | E1125 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lonsdale: China Is the Single Biggest Threat to the United States
“China is by far our biggest threat to have that kind of dictatorship. A lot of people like to pretend that it's just like, oh, Americans are just being like nativist or hawkish or whatever. No, this guy was hiring a lot of his best and brightest to build milit…”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 29:20 Joe Lonsdale: The Future of TikTok; Is it a Danger to US National Security? | E1125 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 19, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
US SaaS customer acquisition cost is two-thirds sales, one-third marketing
“So in the US, the CAC would be two thirds sales and one third marketing because salespeople are so expensive if you're sitting in San Francisco and, or even London for that matter.”
Girish Mathrubootham Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 11:50 Girish Mathrubootham: Biggest Product and Pricing Lessons from Scaling to $597M in ARR | E1142 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 22, 2024 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
UiPath's Growth in Japan Outpaced Its US Growth for Several Years
“Our growth in Japan was for a couple of years higher than in the US.”
Daniel Dines Apr 22, 2024 ▶ 1:34:37 Daniel Dines: From a Dollar a Day to Romania's Richest Man| Happiness, Wealth, Risk and more | E1143 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mensch: Mistral could not operate solely from Europe without US presence
“We could not operate only from Europe, and that we needed to go to the US very quickly.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 44:41 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024
Insight
Mensch: Startups cannot operate in both the US and China simultaneously
“We don't operate in China because you can't really operate in US and China without being like a very, very large corporation.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 36:35 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 13, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tom Blomfield: AI innovations will be replicated across competitors within months
“The US has made like non-competes even less enforceable now. People, talent is going to jump between these places so quickly. So you discover an innovation at one place, and if weeks or months later, it's replicated everywhere else, I think.”
Tom Blomfield May 13, 2024 ▶ 47:50 Tom Blomfield: Do the Best All Raise Pre-Demo Day & YC's Fundraising Advice to Startups | E 1152 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 13, 2024
Disclosure
Blomfield: Monzo spent only 2% to 3% of its capital on US expansion
“We didn't, of all of the money Monzo has spent so far, probably only three, two or three percent of that was spent on the US, and it didn't get very much management attention.”
Tom Blomfield May 13, 2024 ▶ 16:21 Tom Blomfield: Do the Best All Raise Pre-Demo Day & YC's Fundraising Advice to Startups | E 1152 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Schroepfer: China installed more solar in 2023 than total US capacity
“China last year installed more solar in 20, 23 than exists in the United States.”
Mike Schroepfer May 29, 2024 ▶ 46:56 Mike Schroepfer: Former Meta CTO on "Why The Best Leaders are Like Music Conductors" | E1158 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2024 negative
What-if
Alex Wang: China or Russia would use AGI to conquer if developed first
“Let's say China or Russia had AGI today and the United States didn't, I would imagine they would use that to conquer.”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 0:10 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: US, China, and Israel will lead AI over Europe due to lower regulation
“And so when you look at kind of the key markets for AI development, where the US is first and China is second and Israel is third I think those are likely to be less regulated than most, and certainly than Europe, and so these, those will be advantaged economi…”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 24:05 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: Musk, Zuckerberg, and Bezos will form multi-generational US dynasties
“If you don't think that like the, you know, sort of Vanderbilt, Rockefeller, et cetera, analogy is not going to be the Musks, the Zuckerbergs, the, you know, sort of Bezos is that almost certainly, you know, sort of will be, you know, the case over the course …”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 8:26 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024 neutral
Insight
Asparouhov: US extreme tech upside requires accepting extreme social downside
“The American system, what it enables is both ends of the risk curve. We both have the downside sort of part of the risk curve where you have the homeless, the gun violence, et cetera, but we will also enable the opposite end of the risk curve, the Musks, the V…”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 10:19 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: US has stronger multi-generational aristocracy than Europe
“The United States now has sort of stronger multi-generational aristocracy than Europe has.”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 0:02 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 5, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Cahn predicts China will catch up in AI development
“I think that China is going to catch up.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 40:20 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 12, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Maguire: Bitcoin is an obvious strategic hedge for the United States
“And so I just think it's a very obvious hedge for America to hold Bitcoin.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 1:02:22 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 12, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shaun Maguire: Direct US-China World War III Is Extremely Unlikely
“I think it's unlikely to be World War III. I think it would just be a very big regional war. I like for it to be World War III, you'd have to have Like, China and the US directly involved with each other, and I think that's extremely unlikely right now.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 19:47 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 16, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Laela Sturdy: Indian tech startups operate with higher headcount than US firms
“So I'll use India as an example. I mean, you know, you looked at the typical size and number of employees of an Indian tech company, and it was significantly higher than a lot of the U S counterparts, just.”
Laela Sturdy Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 44:27 Laela Sturdy: Life Inside Alphabet's $7BN Growth Fund | E1190 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 positive
Insight
Kolter: AI safety requires global collaboration rather than national competition
“I think there are certain things like, for example, AI safety, where we very much need to work as a world to help set standards and help better the future of everyone here. Because yes, certain things can be done by countries. Capabilities can maybe advance mo…”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 1:01:56 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 20, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carter: Quizlet's content creation metrics were higher in UK than US
“All of our content creation metrics in the UK, metrics like what percentage of teachers and students become content creators and how many pieces of content does each of those creators create? Those metrics were actually higher in the UK than in the US, which k…”
Phil Carter Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 17:00 Phil Carter: Growth Loops, CAC + LTV Benchmarks, Pricing, Discounts, Paywalls... | E1204 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Flo Health monetizes 25-30% of its non-teen US audience
“Now we monetized, maybe if we exclude teenagers, 25, 30% of our American audience”
Dmitry Gurski Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 40:37 Dmitry Gurski: From Potato Farm to $200M in Revenue: The Never-Before-Told Story of Flo Health|E1205 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 30, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Tang: The United States is SHEIN's largest market
“United States.”
Donald Tang Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 26:56 Donald Tang: How SHEIN Got So Big So Fast - The Fastest Growing Company in History | E1208 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Tech entitlement stems from younger workers expecting cushy workplace benefits
“I actually think it's more kind of like the younger generation across Europe and the US. I think especially people who maybe this is their first job, and they had a job that is, like, pretty just cushy from the perspective of, like, you know, all the benefits …”
Maria Angelidou Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 42:19 Maria Angelidou:Product Lessons Leading Facebook App Monetisation Team to Billions in Revenue |E1210 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: US and Canada generate two-thirds of global software revenue
“If I look at most software companies, you're probably Two thirds kind of US Canada in terms of revenue contribution and then one third everything else.”
Jeff Wang Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 57:41 Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 11, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Global nuclear holocaust is super possible due to proxy wars
“That nuclear holocaust is super possible. Yeah, I mean, the United States and Russia have many thousands of nukes pointed at each other, ready to go, and the United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia. It's super easy for these things to tumble into nuc…”
Eoghan McCabe Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 47:58 Eoghan McCabe, CEO @Intercom: Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control | E1213 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 14, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frankel: Strong post-election IPOs will trigger a broader public market reopening
“I think pre-election in the US, IPOs are pretty much closed for now. I think post-election, one or two or three great IPOs, every single, you're going to have like this swarm of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs bankers coming to tell you, like, it is open.”
David Frankel Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 27:25 David Frankel, MP @Founder Collective: Investing Lessons from Seeding Coupang, Pillpack & Suno|E1214 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Grimm: The West lacks munitions capacity for a prolonged nation-state war
“The US right now does not have the production capacity, nor does the UK, nor does Australia, kind of the West at large, to make enough munitions to fully equip a prolonged nation on nation conflict.”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 1:27:58 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Grimm: Western allies will spend nearly $1.3T on defense in 2024
“In 2024 alone, US is spending about eight hundred and eighty billion on defense. The UK spending about seventy three billion more. The EU member countries are spending almost three hundred billion on top of that. Australia spending forty five billion on top of…”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 33:23 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 11, 2024 negative
Opinion
Grimm: TikTok should have been banned in the US years ago
“Hundred percent absolutely yesterday, if not years ago.”
Matt Grimm Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 1:31:11 Matt Grimm, Co-Founder @Anduril: How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | E1224 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2024
Assertion Contradicted
Hommels: US fighter jets require real-time remote US clearance to start
“Even if you buy US fighter jets, Yeah. So the way how it works is you are the owner. It stands somewhere in the hangar, and you want to, you know, start flying. You have to put it in the way where, where you want to fly, and then this data is sent to the US, a…”
Klaus Hommels Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 29:14 Klaus Hommels: Why "Portfolios are Merely a Construct to Make LPs Happy"? | E1231 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2024 negative
Opinion
Hommels: Top European founders match US drive, broader base is entitled
“So I think on the very top of the pyramid, it's exactly the same. You will, people fight like maniacs, and there is everything that you do in order to get somewhere, but I think the broader base under the bell curve is more complacent, more entitled,”
Klaus Hommels Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 1:07:24 Klaus Hommels: Why "Portfolios are Merely a Construct to Make LPs Happy"? | E1231 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 2, 2024 positive
What-if
Storonsky would start Revolut in the US if starting over today
“US, most likely, yeah.”
Nik Storonsky Dec 2, 2024 ▶ 43:29 Nik Storonsky, Revolut Founder: What Revolut Needs to Do to Hit $100BN Valuation | E1233 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 4, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Arison: Grindr has over 95% brand recognition in the US
“We have a 95 plus percent name recognition in the US.”
George Arison Dec 4, 2024 ▶ 11:40 George Arison, Grindr CEO: How Grindr Built a Free Flow Cash Machine | E1234 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 4, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
40% of gay relationships in the US start on Grindr
“It's still, it's now the largest source of gay relationships in the United States. So four in 10 gay relationships start on Grindr.”
George Arison Dec 4, 2024 ▶ 1:56 George Arison, Grindr CEO: How Grindr Built a Free Flow Cash Machine | E1234 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Carvana's first-party logistics network can reach 90% of US driveways
“Carvana first party logistics touches 90% of US driveways. So if you can get any car to either coast of the United States, we will get it to 90% of Americans within a week.”
Dan Gill Jan 8, 2025 ▶ 46:08 Dan Gill, CPO @Carvana: The Most Wild Story in Public Markets | E1243 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Riparbelli: West Coast startups still have higher chances of success
“I still do think that The chance of success is higher if you're in the US on the west coast. I think there's a lot of pros, especially like the last six, seven years got a lot better to build here, but do still think that there is a lot of advantages to be in …”
Victor Riparbelli Jan 15, 2025 ▶ 56:48 Victor Riparbelli, CEO @Synthesia: OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai - Who Wins and Why | E1246 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Kanji: European startup conversion rates match US, but funding amounts lag
“And the biggest structural problem that we have in the UK and Europe, the conversion rate between series, between seed and series A to series B to series C, is basically these days on par with the US. But the capitalization of our companies from seed to series…”
Hussein Kanji Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 41:27 Hussein Kanji, Founder @Hoxton Ventures: Why AI Means London Can Compete with the US | E1248 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kanji: Europe is on par with the US in AI for the first time
“When you look at what's happening in AI, you got DeepMind down the road in London, you got Meta running its AI stuff in Paris, like we are for the first time ever in European history on par from the company creation or technology creation as the US in not a ni…”
Hussein Kanji Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 53:42 Hussein Kanji, Founder @Hoxton Ventures: Why AI Means London Can Compete with the US | E1248 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Kanji: US IPO revenue threshold is now $200M to $300M
“The bar for an IPO today in the US is north of 200 to three hundred million.”
Hussein Kanji Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 57:16 Hussein Kanji, Founder @Hoxton Ventures: Why AI Means London Can Compete with the US | E1248 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2025 negative
Opinion
Ross: European risk aversion hampers tech ecosystem relative to US
“So what I, for me, you know, watching everything, it feels like with Europe, there's a lack of a willingness to take risk, right? There's a black mark if you get it wrong, like everything's about downside protection. Whereas in the U S it's like, that was a gr…”
Jonathan Ross Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 29:27 Jonathan Ross: DeepSeek Special - How Should OpenAI and the US Government Respond | E1253 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 31, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Monzo Is Expanding to the US Using a Partner Bank Model
“Because we're not looking to go in with a banking license. The U.S. FinTech industry has this well-established model of a partner bank, a sponsor bank, and most of the U.S. FinTech industry operates with that model. So we, that's what we're doing. So working, …”
TS Anil Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 26:48 TS Anil, CEO @Monzo: From Layoffs, Downrounds and Low Employee NPS, To $1BN in Revenue | E1254 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Chinese mobile app design favors bold visuals over Western minimalism
“And the reality is you go to China and there's, it's different, right? It's not as like the sleek, elegant design isn't where design sort of falls into the background isn't as prominent and it's a lot more, you know, color and red and big buttons and that type…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 3:30 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 14, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Solomou: The US market offers 5 to 8 times more opportunity than the UK
“Would they be bigger in the States? Well, you're talking a three hundred million population country versus seventy million here. You're talking a market that in some ways is nearly, you know, five to eight times the sizes here in the UK. So you do have more op…”
Solly Solomou Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 1:01:12 Solly Solomou, Founder & CEO @ LADbible Group: From Penniless Shop Offices to Public Company | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 14, 2025
Assertion Supported
LADbible Group reaches over 100 million audience members in the US
“So we have over a hundred million audience members out in the States, and we know that we've done the hard bit.”
Solly Solomou Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 55:05 Solly Solomou, Founder & CEO @ LADbible Group: From Penniless Shop Offices to Public Company | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 14, 2025
What-if
Solomou would have started LADbible in the US if doing it over
“If I was to rewrite the script, I definitely would have started the business in the US.”
Solly Solomou Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 0:13 Solly Solomou, Founder & CEO @ LADbible Group: From Penniless Shop Offices to Public Company | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 20, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hiremath: The US is the top country of origin for Mercor candidates
“Actually the number one place that, you know, workers on the Mercore platform who, you know, have jobs through, through us are from is actually the United States.”
Adarsh Hiremath Feb 20, 2025 ▶ 27:59 Adarsh Hiremath @ Mercor: The Fastest Growing Startup in Silicon Valley | E1261 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Osika: Europe has more raw available tech talent than the US
“The most important thing is talent and culture, and it's, More raw, there's more raw available talent in Europe.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 29:47 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Singlehurst: ByteDance will eventually go public in Hong Kong or US
“I think it'll be public at some point. I think either in the US or Hong Kong, obviously one of those is probably a little bit more likely than the other.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 34:20 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 28, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Hoggett: UK capital market ranks third globally, trailing only US and India
“We are the, I mean, as of today, if you take the 20, 24, 25 numbers by total capital raised, the only equity capital market countries in the world that are bigger than us are the US and India. Everywhere else is behind us. We're the only European market in the…”
Julia Hoggett Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 31:53 Julia Hoggett, CEO @ LSEG plc: The Myths and the Reality of The London Stock Exchange · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 28, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Hoggett: UK creates more unicorns than any country besides US and China
“We create more unicorns than anywhere outside the US and China, and we're a world leading capital market by any measure.”
Julia Hoggett Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17 Julia Hoggett, CEO @ LSEG plc: The Myths and the Reality of The London Stock Exchange · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2025
Disclosure
Stebbings: 85% to 90% of 20VC LP capital comes from US
“When I look at my cap table today, or, you know, LP list today, 85% of dollars, maybe 90% of dollars are from the US for me,”
Harry Stebbings Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 42:35 Tom Hulme & Stan Boland: Lessons from Jensen Huang & How to Fix the UK Tech Ecosystem · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Boland: UK AI talent supply remains net-flat as European gains offset US losses
“If you look at where talent is being born in, like, AI across Europe, and you look at where it lands in terms of where it stays, actually the UK is minting about the same talent it's keeping but that is a net-net, actually. So we're losing talent to the US and…”
Stan Boland Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 3:19 Tom Hulme & Stan Boland: Lessons from Jensen Huang & How to Fix the UK Tech Ecosystem · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Boland: US created $20T in decacorn value versus UK's $170B
“20 trillion dollars of value created in the last 50 years in building Decacorns in the US. The UK has created two, about a hundred and seventy billion of value in the UK.”
Stan Boland Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Tom Hulme & Stan Boland: Lessons from Jensen Huang & How to Fix the UK Tech Ecosystem · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 21, 2025 bearish
Insight
Wilk: Financial Super-Apps Fail in US Due to Higher Competition
“We have not seen this sort of super app mentality be successful here the way it's been successful in other countries where the, there's just less competition outside.”
Jason Wilk Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 44:45 Dave CEO, Jason Wilk: The Best Performing Fund Would Only Back YC Founders on Their Second Time · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 21, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Wilk: European Neobanks Consistently Fail and Retreat From US Market
“They've consistently tried to come here and retreated because their product offering is just not a fit for the U S at least in the way they go to market in these other countries”
Jason Wilk Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 44:17 Dave CEO, Jason Wilk: The Best Performing Fund Would Only Back YC Founders on Their Second Time · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2025 neutral
What-if
Hinrikus: Wise would not have received a pricing premium in the US
“I don't believe Wise would have a pricing premium in the US.”
Taavet Hinrikus Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 55:52 Plural Partner, Taavet Hinrikus: Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hinrikus predicts Europe will rebuild its critical industries
“I've become a whole lot more optimistic on Europe. I think, frankly, everything that has happened in relation to US, I've become so much more bullish on Europe. We will rebuild the critical industries.”
Taavet Hinrikus Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 1:01:30 Plural Partner, Taavet Hinrikus: Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Hinrikus: The US Can No Longer Be Trusted to Protect Europe
“And the ways that US cannot be trusted anymore to be the protector of Europe.”
Taavet Hinrikus Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 43:31 Plural Partner, Taavet Hinrikus: Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Hinrikus: Europe cannot trust tech solutions vulnerable to US interference
“If we don't, if we can't guarantee that the Android solution works, regardless of what people do in the US, we cannot trust it.”
Taavet Hinrikus Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 47:23 Plural Partner, Taavet Hinrikus: Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Hinrikus: Revolut should list in US if expanding there
“If he wants to build a big, I think here's, here's what I would tell Nick. If he wants to build a big business in the US, then he should go public in the US.”
Taavet Hinrikus Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 57:09 Plural Partner, Taavet Hinrikus: Why Founders Will Realise Multi-Stage Funds Damage Seed Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 bullish
Insight
O'Driscoll: Enterprise tech R&D can be anywhere, go-to-market must be US
“For enterprise technology companies, your R&D can be anywhere, your go-to-market will have to be in the US.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:21:51 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 positive
Opinion
Grinda: Scaling $100M to $200M in US is easier than $0-100M abroad
“If you're at a hundred million revenues, it's easier to go from a hundred to 200 in the US than zero to a hundred anywhere else, and that's true at a billion.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:17:36 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grinda: US lacks manufacturing capacity and would lose a war with China
“Right now, we don't have the manufacturing capacity. We would lose a war with China right now.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:13:30 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Pigment targeted US enterprise buyers during its first year of sales
“First, we went very early to find customers in the US. First year of selling, pretty much we went to the US.”
Eleonore Crespo May 9, 2025 ▶ 45:14 20VC: Four Traits of the Most Successful Founders | How to Hunt and Close Talent Like a Pro and Where All Founders Go Wrong | Lessons Raising $397M From the Best Investors in the World with Eléonore Crespo @ Pigment
May 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Crespo: 60% of Pigment's business and half its team are in the US
“Half of the team today of Pigment is in the US. Most of our business, 60% of our business is in the US. Our largest customers are all in the US.”
Eleonore Crespo May 9, 2025 ▶ 33:31 20VC: Four Traits of the Most Successful Founders | How to Hunt and Close Talent Like a Pro and Where All Founders Go Wrong | Lessons Raising $397M From the Best Investors in the World with Eléonore Crespo @ Pigment
Jun 6, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
The Bachelor Has the Highest Educated TV Audience in the US
“Same in the US, like The Bachelor, the highest educated audience in the US is The Bachelor.”
Matthew Pohlson Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 38:34 20VC: The Science of Storytelling: Three Steps to Master the Perfect Story | From Near Death Experience to Unicorn Startup: The Untold Story of Omaze with Matt Pohlson
Jun 12, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Wise stock rose 8% immediately upon announcing US listing plans
“When they announced that the stock popped eight percent, that's basically like saying you can make eight percent free money just by listing in the US.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 17:49 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: US has 4% of global population but 67% of market cap
“The United States has four percent of the world's people. We have roughly 23% of the world's GDP. We have 67% of the world's market cap.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 0:03 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Apple will announce US iPhone assembly operations within the year
“I think, listen, I don't, I would have to do more analysis to see if, it's not possible, right? If it's close to impossible, but announcing it and beginning a process, you might have to do it. You just might have to do it. I'm going to go yes.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 1:03:03 Chime IPO: Are IPOs Hotter Than Ever? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Tim Cook will not announce impossible US iPhone assembly operations
“I think politically it would be smart to announce it, even though it's impossible. I think Tim Cook is such a straight shooter that he just couldn't pull it off with a straight face because everyone was, no, it's absolutely bullshit.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 1:03:22 Chime IPO: Are IPOs Hotter Than Ever? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Reck: European VC funding is $50B annually versus $200B+ in US
“We spent fifty billion a year in VC in Europe. The US is north of two hundred billion.”
Johannes Reck Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 1:08:52 GetYourGuide CEO & Founder, Johannes Reck: The Wild Story Raising $450M From Masa and Softbank · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 23, 2025 negative
What-if
Reck: GetYourGuide Would Have Grown Faster by Delaying US Expansion
“If I'd go back in time, it's another lesson for a lot of founders. I would have not gone as early. I would have done more in Europe. I think we would have had even more growth and more profitability.”
Johannes Reck Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 30:54 GetYourGuide CEO & Founder, Johannes Reck: The Wild Story Raising $450M From Masa and Softbank · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
US VCs Refused to Fund GetYourGuide Unless They Relocated to America
“For the people that I met in the U S most people said, you know, move over here or we're not going to give you funding.”
Johannes Reck Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 13:45 GetYourGuide CEO & Founder, Johannes Reck: The Wild Story Raising $450M From Masa and Softbank · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 7, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Galloway: US teen suicide has increased 60%, driven partly by social media
“We have a 60% uptick in teen suicide in the US, and I don't put it all at the hands of social or the feet of social media, but it's definitely played a role”
Scott Galloway Jul 7, 2025 ▶ 8:13 Scott Galloway on Billionaire Happiness, Money & Self-Worth | Why We Should Drink More & Not WFH · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Flanagan: EU AI regulations are driving European founders to the US
“And if Europe want to be a hub for excellence and innovation, the rules and regulations we have are forcing founders to still, I think, gravitate towards the US.”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 48:23 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 28, 2025 positive
Insight
Casado: Best counter to foreign open-source software is US openness
“And any of the software that produced by a nation state that we view, you know, quasi adversarially, the way that we combat that is we also are incredibly open. And we also do a proliferation of technology.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 30:47 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
US and European VC Fundraising Will Hit Multi-Year Lows
“We'll see what, you know, Q three and Q four look like, but in the U S this is going to be the lowest year since 17 in Europe. Same. So it goes back a bit further, maybe to 20 16.”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 57:18 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Martin Mignot: Revolut will achieve meaningful market penetration in the US
“I think they will.”
Martin Mignot Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 1:02:14 Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 11, 2025
Assertion Supported
Martin Mignot: Index Ventures splits investments evenly between Europe and US
“We consistently invest about half in Europe and half in the US”
Martin Mignot Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 26:50 Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 1, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Frosst: A non-US trillion-dollar AI company will emerge within a decade
“Yeah. Maybe north of the border.”
Nick Frosst Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 1:12:28 Cohere Founder, Nick Frosst: How To Compete with OpenAI & Anthropic, and Sam Altman’s AI Disservice · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 5, 2025 negative
Opinion
Alex Schultz: Europe is not in the global AI race
“Europe's not in the race right now. I mean, maybe it can find a way to be in the race, but I don't think it's in the race. You've got the US and China as the two groups that are leading in AI.”
Alex Schultz Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 29:53 20Growth: Meta CMO Alex Schultz on How All Founders Have to Change Their Marketing Playbook in a World of AI | Is AI Plateauing, What it Means if China Wins the AI Race and Why Zuck is a Generational Leader
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Taneja: US is expanding its competitive moat through AI and energy
“Look I, my belief is that US is very well positioned. We have energy, we have AI, we have the largest market, we have the largest entrepreneurial ecosystem. You know, in a lot of ways, we're very well positioned. And I think in the short term, in some ways, we…”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 25:51 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taneja: Short-term US AI energy demand must rely on natural gas
“But in the short term, you don't have sustainable solutions, really have natural gas in the US, for example.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:15:27 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taneja: US and China are comparable in AI, separated by months
“I think China and the US are very comparable in where they are in AI today. There's a few months lead here and there.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 30:40 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: A US-China TikTok deal will be signed within 60 days
“Whatever this crazy deal is, it's going to get signed in the next 60. I think these deals are going to get done this calendar year, and I think it's going to get signed”
Jason Lemkin Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 1:20:20 The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US & NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025
Insight
Ross: Missing out costs more than fumbling in growth economies
“There's two kinds of risk. There's mistakes of commission, where you do something that's a mistake, and then there's mistakes of omission, where you don't do something and it's a mistake. And the United States is terrified of making mistakes of omission. When …”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 35:50 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Ross: US will maintain AI hardware advantage over China for 2-3 years
“So my expectation is that right now for the next two to three years, the United States has a clear advantage in that away game over China.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 32:34 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Ross: Norway could match total US energy output via wind and hydro
“Norway has about an 80% utilization rate of wind. So, like, 80% of the time you can be generating energy. They have enough hydro that if you deployed an five x the wind power of the hydro, Norway itself could provide as much energy as the United States and cou…”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 36:52 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Ross: US nuclear power permitting costs triple actual construction costs
“He said they spend three times as much on the permitting in the United States than on the nuclear power plant.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 40:02 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
US AI Power Constraint Is Geographical Mismatch, Not Total Supply
“People often say we don't have enough power in the US, and this is strictly wrong. We have plenty of power. It's in the wrong places, right? It's not where we have people or where we have fiber optic cable.”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 31:14 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 20, 2025
Disclosure
Bouaziz: Deel generates 50% of revenue from US, 30-35% from Europe
“If you think about deals revenue split today, 50% comes from the US, a little over 35% comes from Europe, and the rest is that kind of rest of the world”
Alex Bouaziz Oct 20, 2025 ▶ 41:33 Deel CEO, Alex Bouaziz on Raising $300M+ at a $17BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Cahn: Anduril is clearly the US national champion in defense tech
“And in my view, Andrew is clearly the national champion in the U S and credit to that team, just really phenomenal company, phenomenal visionaries.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 1:05:32 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 positive
Opinion
Pineau: Building AI models outside the US and China creates a healthier industry
“I do think it's healthy that there are models that are getting built in different places around the world, not just in the US and China right now. I think this is healthy in terms of diversity of thoughts. I think it's healthy in terms of having a greater amou…”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 26:41 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Insight
Andrew Ng: Closed AI models and high salaries slow Western AI innovation
“When the US has more closed models, and when, you know, teams are trying to pay these hundred million dollar salaries to extract talent, then that circulation of knowledge becomes very slow, and it slows down the rate of American and European innovation.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 22:45 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 21, 2025
Insight
Altman: Successful startups must target at least the entire US market
“Yeah, and I do believe that the majority of the best companies are going to be built from San Francisco, but the people need to be a little bit outward looking in what they're building, because Your market better be the entire United States at a minimum to be …”
Max Altman Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 21:20 20VC: Max Altman on The New Seed War: Can Anyone Compete with Sequoia and a16z | Leaving $2BN on the Table with Reddit | Lessons from Backing Rippling at $25M Post | Why Climate Tech is a Mirage and Disaster
Dec 15, 2025
Insight
a16z raised its underwriting bar for AI startups due to hypergrowth
“And so this is the bar has actually gone up significantly for us when we look at AI companies because it grown so fast. And so you can't actually look at years of renewal behavior, but you can look at shorter cycles of retention and you most importantly can lo…”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 31:03 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025
Assertion Contradicted
The number of US public companies halved over the last 20 years
“It turns out that the number of public companies has been cut in half over the last 20 years.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 11:34 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 31, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Fitzpatrick: 70% of US software is over 20 years old
“70% of the software in America is over 20 years old.”
Matt Fitzpatrick Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 1:00:32 Matt Fitzpatrick: Who Wins the Data Labelling Race & Why Al Needs Forward-Deployed Engineers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Chang: UK energy consumption dropped 25% while China's grew 7x
“So if you look at energy consumption per capita in the last 25 years, UK has dropped 25%. In the US, it's been flat. In China, in the same period of time, it's gone up by seven times.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 18:46 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Alan Chang: Fuse Energy will only list publicly if private liquidity dries up
“If we ever list, I think it would be the US, yeah. I personally don't see a need to. There's a lot of liquidity in the private markets And obviously there's additional overhead being a listed company. Like, so far, like the only, like, only, only reason I see …”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 1:04:19 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026 negative
What-if
Alan Chang: Shell would be worth more if listed in the US
“I think if they were listed in the US, they'd probably be worth more.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 1:04:14 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 5, 2026
Assertion Supported
Chang: Electricity costs 25-30 cents in Europe, 10-15 in US, 8 in China
“So, like, if you look at the, what the Brits and Europeans pay in terms of, you know, cost per kilowatt, it's roughly 25 to 30 dollar cents. And the US is 10 to 15 dollar cents. In China, it's eight dollar cents.”
Alan Chang Jan 5, 2026 ▶ 25:35 Fuse CEO Alan Chang: The Revolut Playbook of Speed & Ownership, Why Founders Aren’t Ambitious Enough · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 9, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chad Peet: 80% of selling in Europe is identical to the US
“80% of it is the exact same. Hard work. Pipeline generation. All of that stuff is applicable in Europe, just like it is in the US.”
Chad Peets Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 33:15 20Sales: Why the Best Sales People are F**** in the Head | Why Remote Work is BS | Why Europe is a Nightmare for Recruiting Sales Teams | How to Build a Sales Machine | What Everyone Gets Wrong Today in Sales with Chad Peets
Jan 26, 2026
Insight
Junestrand: US at-will employment is a structural advantage over Europe
“The termination period in the US versus in, let's say, Sweden is actually one of the structural benefits of having a big office in the US.”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 22:20 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026
Insight
Junestrand: European startups should secure two US enterprise clients before opening US offices
“I had this heuristic, which was if we can sign and serve two of the AM law, 200 law firms from Europe we are ready to open in the US.”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 21:34 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Legora grew from zero to 50 US employees in one year
“When we started the year, we were zero boots on the ground in the US. Now we are 50 people.”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 20:13 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Siemiatkowski: Nubank will outperform Revolut in US expansion
“I think I have to go with David. Because I think, ah, Nick's challenge right now might be that he is so distributed. I mean, he's trying to go for the whole world, right? I mean, he's launching in Dubai. He's launching in India. He's launching everywhere. You …”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 30:25 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Siemiatkowski: Klarna has nearly 28 million users in the US
“We have thirty million users in the US, right? Almost like I think it's 28 or something. So like, but soon it's going to be 30.”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 29:21 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 positive
Opinion
Siemiatkowski: US incumbent bank apps are significantly better than European ones
“If you take your Amex app in the US and compare it to one here, it is significantly better there, right? Your JP Morgan app is significantly better. So the financial institutions in the US are just better.”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 28:57 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Mitchell Green: ByteDance will list in Hong Kong, not the US
“Zero percent chance it'll list in the US. No, I mean, just to answer it, I have no clue, but no, it'll list in Hong Kong.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 26:46 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026
Assertion Supported
Mitchell Green: Most top US e-commerce companies are traditional retailers
“If you look today at the 10 largest e-commerce companies in the United States, You know, six or seven out of 10 of them are traditional retailers.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 7:36 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Green: China can engineer and reverse engineer tech cheaper than Americans
“Don't underestimate, like, Chinese creativeness and, like, ingenuity to, like, figure out how to, like, reverse engineer and engineer things in much cheaper ways than Americans can do.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 30:49 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitchell Green: US will face major power infrastructure bottlenecks for AI
“We, in the US, we are gonna run into major issues around power.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 27:44 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: US tech companies employ 3.2M people, including 800K developers
“Entire tech industry, excluding tech people employed in non-tech companies. Technology, NAIC classification, 51 tech companies, 3.2000000 people in the United States, of whom roughly 800,000 are software developers, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 37:25 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Stebbings: Nubank will expand into the US market
“They're going to enter the U S it's a good bet. They've still got David at the helm. They're growing 28% year on year. I think we, I think new banker incredibly solid.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 1:08:23 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 23, 2026
Insight
Steckman: Defense founders must defer ethical rules to democratically elected governments
“If you work in defense, and if you start a defense company, your moral compass tends to be pretty clear on this question, which is, we have a democratically elected set of governments that represent the US, the Alliance, NATO, all of the countries participatin…”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 35:46 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 23, 2026
Insight
Steckman: Defense tech companies require a large US presence to survive
“You basically can't have a defense company if you don't have a large US business.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 9:08 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Steckman: United States accounts for 50% of total global defense spending
“50% of defense spending is in the US and 50% is in the rest of the world.”
Matthew Steckman Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 9:12 99% of Drone Companies Will Die & Why Anduril’s Products Aren’t an Ethics Debate | Matthew Steckman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Andreessen: a16z Should Reflexively Back Every European Founder Moving to US
“One of my things in the firm is I say, we should back every single European founder who moves to the US. Like, we should just reflexively say yes.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 50:42 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 positive
Opinion
Andreessen: Only the US could enable Elon Musk's success
“And the honest truth is, Elon would say there's only one place in the world where that could be achieved, that could be accomplished and achieved. It's here. You know, there's only one place in the world where Elon would be able to do what Elon has done over t…”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 47:28 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Andreessen: More optimistic about the US than two years ago
“I'm a lot more optimistic than I was two years ago and I'm a lot less optimistic than I was 20 years ago.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 45:27 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Midha: Integrated Huawei Chips Rival Top US AI Chips
“Huawei chips are able to produce capabilities improvements today in China that rival some of the best chips here when integrated up and down the stack.”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 44:06 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 18, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jake Paul States Conditions Under Which He Would Run for U.S. President
“I would only want to do it if I was, A, the best person for the job, and if, B, there was, like, someone like Kamala Harris, like, running that, like, could have the potential to, like, ruin the United States, and I would have to, like, go and oppose them and,…”
Jake Paul Apr 18, 2026 ▶ 36:22 Jake Paul: Traditional VC is Toast & Attention is More Valuable than Cash · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Levie: US-China AI race is commercial, not existential
“You know, the idea that we're in some kind of, you know, kind of race, existential race where a month or two of advantage is gonna, you know, change the total outcome of AI progress and what everybody does between us and China. I just don't agree with, I think…”
Aaron Levie Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 2:42 Aaron Levie: Everyone is Wrong; We'll Have More Developers in 5 Years · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Tobi Lütke: Over 60% of Canadians view US as top national risk
“60% of people, more than 60, I think the numbers have gone up since, and people think that the United States is the largest risk to Canada, like, much larger than, like, Russia or China would be.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 42:12 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 positive
Insight
Tobi Lütke: Canada's sole historical winning strategy is helping America win
“There's been one winning strategy in Canada's history which is win by helping America win.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 42:27 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 18, 2026 negative
Opinion
Browder: US startup ambition and outcomes are 100x larger than UK's
“One huge negative is the scale of ambition in the US is a hundred times bigger. The most successful companies in the UK are in the, like, tens of billions range, like Revolut and great outcomes like that. In the US, it's in the trillions, and it's just an orde…”
Josh Browder May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:27:07 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 18, 2026 positive
Opinion
Browder: UK offers less competition for talent and media than US
“Starting out in the UK, it's kind of less competitive for talent, less competitive for media even. Like, anyone can get on the front page of the Daily Mail with the right story. The media in the US is much more jaded, so it's a lot more noisy, a lot more compe…”
Josh Browder May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:23:41 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 26, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman claims the US power grid relies on outdated 1950s technology
“Their power infrastructure is extraordinary. And in the US, we are a patchwork of 19 fifties technology, if we're lucky.”
Andrew Feldman May 26, 2026 ▶ 47:49 Cerebras CEO on the Future of Data Centres, Token Costs & Memory | Should US Companies Sell to China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 26, 2026 positive
Opinion
Feldman proposes granting TSMC and Samsung 20-year exemptions from local US ordinances
“I would allow TSMC and Samsung both to a 20 year period free from all local and legal, local ordinances, all of them, to build fabs in their desired location in the US.”
Andrew Feldman May 26, 2026 ▶ 49:10 Cerebras CEO on the Future of Data Centres, Token Costs & Memory | Should US Companies Sell to China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laqua: US visa friction gives London a major opportunity in AI
“Given the whole like visa situation in the United States, I think there's actually a phenomenal opportunity for London to become like a center of AI and a center of tech.”
Nico Laqua May 30, 2026 ▶ 22:46 The Hardest Working Startup in America | Nico Laqua, Co-founder & CEO @ Corgi · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 1, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Foody: US AI talent aggregation will continue driving major geopolitical advantage
“I think that it's going to be difficult to change because there's just so many strong network effects around talent, right? When we have the best talent, even I know so many Brilliant French researchers that go to work at OpenAI and dropping in DeepMind, right…”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 1:00:47 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 6, 2026
Insight
Lauritsen: US engineers are less risk-averse while European engineers are more loyal
“In the US, people are generally less risk averse, so like, they'll, they'll be ready to jump on a lot of things to test. I think in Europe, people are more risk averse. People in Europe, and I'm super generalizing now, but I think Generally are more, I don't w…”
Jacob Lauritzen Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 34:09 Inside Legora's Tech Stack: Why Token Maxing is Failing Enterprise Startups | Legora CTO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 8, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Chernin: 70% to 75% of Nebius's new compute capacity is in the US
“Like probably 70, 75% of the new capacity that we built midterm is in the US.”
Roman Chernin Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 1:03:12 Nebius Co-Founder on AI Infrastructure Bubbles | How Price Elastic is Demand for Compute · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Grinberg: Lacking frontier open-source AI models in the US is embarrassing
“I think it's pretty embarrassing that we don't have frontier open models in the United States.”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:10:33 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI data center buildouts will shift outside the US
“So we're still going to see data center build out. It might not happen in the US.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 51:12 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
O'Driscoll: AI frontier market will consolidate into 2-3 US players
“Fast forward five years, you know, unless the U.S. Is ludicrously obnoxious in its sovereignty acts, it should be a small oligopoly like Cloud of two to three players in the U.S. With some kind of affiliations in Europe, and that is the likely structure of the…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 45:08 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Randle: US regulating Anthropic's Fable on capabilities is a Rubicon moment
“At the face of it, this is a Rubicon moment in the history of the AI industry. It's the first time that the US has ostensibly regulated an AI model based on capabilities.”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 0:04 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 22, 2026
Assertion Supported
Nikesh Arora arrived in the US with $200 and worked odd jobs
“When I came to the United States, I was a security guard. I took notes to the disabled. I flipped burgers at Burger King. I had 200 dollars. I had to find a way of paying my tuition.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 1:05:31 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 29, 2026
Assertion Supported
Shridhar: US Top 20 Companies Turnover Every Decade, Unlike the EU
“The top 20 most important companies That list changes every 10 years in the US. It's so unlike the EU where practically new companies have rarely come up, come on and displaced existing old, old companies.”
K.R. Shridhar Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 23:03 Bloom Energy CEO: Why We Aren’t in an AI Capex Bubble | Energy Sovereignty & The Future of Power · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: BLS data shows 1.8 million US software developers
“There were only 1.8 million developers in the United States, of which only 200,000 of them work in software companies, another 600,000 work in tech companies, you know, HP, IBM, and a million of them work in literally JP Morgan, B of A, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 28:05 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 20, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: US can build its own open-source AI ecosystem if China restricts access
“I do believe, in terms of talent density and resources, I do believe U.S. Will be able to build that open system by ourselves, and we should.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 21:55 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
Jul 29, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Lemkin: US will ban Chinese AI models just like DJI drones
“If those drones are banned, this is just my bet. I'm betting that the Chinese models are getting banned too. It's, I think if the drones are banned, this one's easier to ban.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 22:09 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Jul 29, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI agent unpredictability will strengthen US bans on foreign open weights
“I think these models are very risky. I use them every day. I love it. And I think it's an argument to keep the open weight out of the US. It's gonna favor the ban because we can't, we have no idea what these models are gonna do.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 13:12 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Aug 2, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Angelopoulos: US Likely to Restrict Chinese Open AI Models Within Three Years
“Yeah, my guess my guess would be that we will. I, I'm not saying I support it, but I think that it is likely where the world is headed. If I had to like place a bet, it would be there, but I think it's very uncertain at the moment.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 19:07 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Angelopoulos: China Has Already Restricted American AI Models Domestically
“And by the way, it's worth noting that China has already restricted the use of American models within China, right? So if you look at the two by two matrix of US China restrict, not restrict, you know, like export import stuff They have already restricted the …”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 16:10 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 7, 2026 negative
Opinion
Frankel: The US underinvests in energy R&D compared to China
“If you look at the amount of money that's being spent in China on energy efficiency and energy research now, I don't think we're spending enough. And by that, that's a negative of the Trump administration is we need much more money being spent on R&D.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:17:06 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 31, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: Over half of ClickHouse revenue and customers are outside North America
“Over half of our revenue comes from outside of the US. 40% here in EMEA, 10% in Asia. Over half of our customers are outside of North America.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 42:55 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Sep 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Most European Point-Solution Startups Will Fail in the US Market
“And that's why your European startups, most of them are going to fail at least in the U S because they can't do much more with more, right? They're going to fail. Their little point solutions are just going to disappear in six months. We don't need those littl…”
Jason Lemkin Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 52:22 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Sep 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Franceschetti: US tech hiring competition and salaries have returned to 2021 levels
“We are back to twenty-twenty-one and that I think is becoming a problem in the U.S., meaning salaries are going out of control competition.”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:53 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
Sep 12, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep is increasingly hiring in Europe and outside the US
“And so we are focused more and more in on hiring in Europe and outside the US.”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 2:17 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
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