Assertion Not checkable as stated
Somerville: VC managers with most aggressive TVPI valuations need capital most
“And the ones that are the most aggressive in TVPI carrying value Are the ones that need the capital the most versus the ones that have been more conservative.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Somerville: Generational Friction Will Cause Increased Infighting in VC Partnerships
“I think what you're gonna end up having happen is increased infighting in a lot of groups, because you have older GPs that have done very well that are staying on longer than they ever expected just because they're going to be needed to get funds raised in the…”
Insight
Somerville: Mark down VCs with under two years of runway, not long-runway growers
“I would look at the companies that are shorter on runway that are going to need to raise within the next 18 to 24 months, and if those companies have hit a growth phase and a price that's too high, then I would take a discretionary markdown on it. If instead i…”
Assertion Contradicted
Somerville: Mainstream generalist growth funds are absent from crypto
“I mean, specific to the crypto side, the only potentially interesting thing there is no mainstream generalist money at the growth stage investing in that category. So the people that will be coming in and supporting those companies are the crypto native folks.”
Insight
Somerville: VC Managers Lacking DPI After Four Funds Face Organizational Risk
“I think if you wait around and have four or five funds and have returned no capital, you're actually introducing organizational risk from an LP standpoint.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Somerville: Company secondary buyers lacking management relationships will get burned
“A lot of people that look at company secondaries Don't have a relationship with the management of these companies and don't get full information. So they're actually buying in a very imperfect way with not a lot of granularity on what actually the company is d…”
Insight
Somerville: VC Funds with 3x-4x TVPI Can Accept 50% Secondary Discounts
“Now, if a fund is at a three to a four X and you're asking them to take a 50% discount, they're still going back to their board with a two X return and the ability from an opportunity cost standpoint to then deploy it. Into what we all expect to be very good v…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Somerville: No Tech IPOs Will Occur in the Next Two Years
“Company side, people, I think, think of a little bit differently philosophically, but at the same time, they know that there's not going to be an IPO in the next two years, and A lot of those constituents are smaller, they're high net worths, they're individua…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Somerville: International and Middle East LPs Will Increasingly Fund Growth Venture
“I do. I think there will be a lot higher level of international participation and particularly in the growth funds just because on the growth side, you know, if you want to write a 50 to a hundred million dollar check, I mean, even in the early stage funds, if…”
Insight
Somerville: Emerging VC managers should avoid selling management company GP stakes
“I don't think they should take it unless that's the only option. And if it's that hard to fundraise, and they don't have, like, a natural group of family offices or high net worths to support them maybe they should wait and find a different way to generate a t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Somerville: VC Asset Valuation Methodology Is Permanently Changed
“I never thought valuation policy would change as much as it did have public comp reliance option pricing modeling inserted, broad scale discretionary markdowns. I just think how people will value these assets has probably been forever changed on a go forward b…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Somerville: Rapid 2020-2021 VC Deployments Face Multi-Vintage Returns Crisis
“You're not going to provide any vintage or diversification, and those funds will probably end up being challenged if they were concentrated in, in parts of, like, 20, 21, and you didn't smooth it out enough, and if you manage to do two or three funds within a …”
Insight
Somerville: Structured equity downside protections often evaporate prior to exit
“Structure doesn't necessarily stay when a company exits. It gets negotiated out by management or the rest of the board, and so you can think that you've protected yourself with structure, and it ends up absolutely evaporating.”
Prediction Partly held up
Somerville: Micro VC funds will face harder fundraising as LP market saturates
“It will increasingly become harder to raise subsequent iterations or to scale, and I think you've started to see that with even some groups that have a track record now and have done a pretty decent job struggling to find new LPs on the institutional side to c…”
Disclosure
Somerville: Fund managers selling into secondaries is a negative signal for LPs
“For us as a direct secondary buyer, just for our model, we're more interested in buying typically from employees or departed employees just because for us as an investor in funds, if your fund manager is selling out into a secondary, it's not a great sign for …”
Insight
Somerville: Micro VCs should sell majority stakes into mega growth rounds
“Yeah, I mean, I think definitely on the micro side, it's something that people should be actively doing, and I would even consider selling majority positions, not full positions, into these mega growth rounds. I think it makes sense as a seed investor, you're …”
Insight
Somerville: Venture capital firms retain non-performing partners for too long
“I think people keep non-performing partners for too long, and there's not as much of a focus on transitioning those folks out or giving them the ability to fix a portfolio rather than continue to deploy at the same clip.”
Assertion Supported
StepStone: Venture funds have marked down portfolios by 15% to 20%
“I think we looked on average funds have come down around 19% on the venture side somewhere between 15 and 20, I would say, is, is what we've typically seen.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Somerville: DPI will become crucial as LPs struggle to evaluate true TVPI
“Showing DPI is going to become more and more important. Mostly because LPs will struggle to evaluate what true TVPI is”
Insight
Somerville: Buying secondaries off current TVPI risks paying for overinflated valuations
“You could argue in some scenarios, if you're buying off of current TVPI, it's already overinflated, and in order to actually get to that TVPI at the end of the day, it might not make sense from a duration standpoint to even consider that.”
Disclosure
Somerville: LP interest secondary discounts range 30-45%, company secondaries 20-35%
“On LP interest, a lot of what we're seeing is in the 30 to 45% range. A lot of what we're seeing on the company secondaries is in, like, the 20 to 35% range.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Somerville: Many secondary funds rely on cold calls to former employees
“What many other direct secondary funds are doing are cold calling departed employees or reaching out to people that they know need to sell and are really relying on their own point of view of the company instead of ongoing information and monitoring.”
Insight
Somerville: LPs Face Rampant Adverse Selection in SPV Direct Investments
“That they get rampant adverse selection and oftentimes pushed into fee bearing SPVs that even further dilute their end of day return.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Somerville: Secondaries Will Be Essential for Early-Stage VC Liquidity
“And as a result of that, and as a result of the limited liquidity options, the secondary part of venture is going to be very significant for a long period of time. And I think pretty interesting and also a compliment from a duration standpoint If you're doing …”
