why aren't all 487 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Nathan Latka plans to build and IPO a startup within three years
“I just sold my last company and now I want to basically film and be totally transparent about me building a company from scratch and taking it public within three years.”
Assertion Contradicted
YouStake Structures Poker Staking Legalities as Income Share Agreements
“Oh yeah, absolutely. It's what's called a person to person sponsorship or a income share agreement is, is really what the legal term is. There's actually IRS forms that you fill in when you do your taxes for it. So it's all been approved.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bladen: Willis Towers Watson cut real estate footprint, saving $500M annually
“So you can be a company like Willis Tau Watson that works with us, right? They've gone from 10.1 to 4.7 million square feet. So now that everybody's not in the office every single day, though, that's obviously a various difference across lots of different comp…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ninety will auto-generate org charts and seat-level KPIs within a year
“Well, within Plus or minus a year from now, you can give us that information, and we will immediately give you what a likely organizational chart will look like for you. Not only that, we'll give you the KPIs, not just for your company, but for every single se…”
Assertion Contradicted
Moah: Boomerang invented the snooze button used across Gmail and Superhuman
“We invented the snooze button you now see in Gmail, Outlook, Superhuman, even Slack.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chesseri: Dynasty Will Secure South Dakota Trust License in Nine Months
“We're getting licensed in the next nine months. We're working on the application process right now. We're working with the South Dakota legislators. We're building our board in South Dakota and we'll be licensed in about nine months.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Schwartz: Upcoming 2025 regulations will force unprepared banks to lend to SMBs
“There's going to be some regulation coming out next year where banks are going to be forced to go back and start to lend out to the small businesses, but banks are not equipped to underwrite a small bit.”
Assertion Contradicted
Harris: 62% of Travel Booking Origination Stems from Social Media
“62% of all origination of travel these days is happening through social media influence.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schenker: Sales reps have highest stress after teachers and nurses
“So other than teachers and nurses, sales consistently report the highest stress levels out of all occupational groups, which makes sense for anybody that's done sales, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Chaser is a project management tool that requires only one user
“Chaser is the only project management software that only one user needs to use”
Assertion Contradicted
Hurt: Only three US retailers had customer reviews in 2005
“And to put that in a historical context, there were only three retailers who had customer reviews at the time in the entire United States.”
Assertion Contradicted
Yampolskiy: 65% of data breaches result from third-party negligence
“65% of data breaches today happen due to negligence of third parties, which are not even within your control.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Yampolskiy: SecurityScorecard topped $100M ARR, expects 50%+ growth in 2023
“We exceeded a hundred million run rate last year, and we're gonna probably grow by at least 50% this year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Martin: Remote workers work on average one extra day per week
“Remote workers work on average a day more per week than their on premise counterparts.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Naluichi: Jellify will close $50M in revenue this year
“We are going to close fifty million this year in revenues.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ben Barokas's team at Google developed the real-time bidding protocol
“While I was at Google, after we almost created the problem while there, we developed a protocol that, Called real-time bidding. And the RTB protocol enables marketers to bid on individual users based on their data profile. And that made data available on just …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
The US is still years away from federal privacy laws, says Barokas
“And still to this day, we don't have national data privacy legislation that has been passed. And we're probably a couple of years away”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Experiential ETC projects $3.5M to $4.0M in revenue for FY23-24
“23, 24, we are poised to do about 3.5 to four million dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Berman: Average entry-level engineer salary in India is $800 to $1,200
“Average engineer salary here for somebody fresh out of college is, you know, 800 dollars, a thousand dollars, 1200 dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Stone: Trello App Store randomizes listings in communication category
“What I do know about Trello in particular is there's a randomization component, which to me is really nice because it means that they give everyone the opportunity. So if you click on the communication category, I think you said in two categories, they give yo…”
Assertion Contradicted
Kimmel: Enterprise pricing software costs at least $150K to $200K annually
“You cannot get pricing software at less than, call it a 150,200 thousand dollars a year for an annual site license.”
Assertion Contradicted
Karamchandani: 70% of trucking companies fail due to compliance issues
“Seven out of 10 Trucking companies go out of business because of the compliance issues. Either they are not safe to operate, or they have any compliance issues.”
Assertion Contradicted
Messer: LinkShare held 96% of global affiliate market at acquisition
“We were the first affiliate marketer. We became the global player. I think when we finally sold the business to Rakuten, it was Probably. 96% of the affiliate market globally and still is today.”
Assertion Contradicted
Navin: Local banks charge 4% to 5% for EUR/USD hedges
“I mean, if you would try to do that, for example, versus, I mean, with his local bank, you would pay, probably end up paying by four or five percent for the specific million dollars of euro dollar hedge.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dubin: AI cannot generate layered visuals or multi-layer banners
“To be honest, it's not applied to generating layered visuals. As for now, just either, like, plain images or very good quality texts, but not actually, like, banners”
Assertion Contradicted
Asim: Washington Jurisdictions Ban Extra Fees on Court-Ordered Payments
“Some jurisdictions like in Washington are actually making it against the rules of the court to charge any money beyond. So if the court, if the judge orders you to pay a hundred dollars, the court's not legally allowed to accept anything more than that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Harris: Tech Venture Bets Caused Over 168,000 Layoffs
“So over a 168,000 people have lost their jobs in the last couple of years from this spread bet.”
Assertion Contradicted
De la Nuez estimates Hotjar had $10M-$20M revenue at acquisition
“Based on what I knew and the fact that a hot jar was much more focused on SMB, you know, I think they probably were somewhere in the 10 to twenty million is my guess.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cook: The Slack Fund requires startups to have institutional capital
“We didn't take Slack fund money because they have a requirement where you have to have institutional capital, which we haven't raised any institutional capital, so we can't raise from them.”
Assertion Contradicted
Owens: Paddle at least doubled revenue from 2020 to 2021
“It was really high. Like it was because it was a sort of a little bit of a COVID aberration. Because we were, we saw like the tailwinds of all of that. We at least doubled the business like kind of over that kind of period of time.”
Assertion Contradicted
FDA Had Zero Experience With Dental AI Before VideaHealth Applied
“When we went to the FDA, for instance, right, to get this cleared, like they never had any, They had no experience with dentists or dentistry whatsoever. They were familiar with like chest x-rays and mammography, right? You maybe have heard these algorithms fl…”
Assertion Contradicted
Nowak: Flexi is first salary-on-demand player in Poland
“We are the first player on Poland. Poland is a huge market having twenty million employees.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Liu: Magic Eden on track for $400M–$500M NFT volume this month
“So this month we're about to trade around four, five, four to five hundred million dollars of NFTs. On a marketplace.”
Assertion Contradicted
Latka: Marketplace micro-SaaS acquisitions typically close at 1x to 1.5x revenue
“I mean, the most of the deals are the ones like what you did right there for like one X or sometimes 1.5 X is usually what happens.”
Assertion Contradicted
Keboola marketplace has 1,400 applications built by 400 developers
“We have the biggest marketplace in our space. We have 1400 applications in our marketplace developed by 400 different developers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Alina Vandenberghe developed the first iPad app demoed by Steve Jobs
“She did the first iPad app that Steve Jobs demoed when he launched the iPad.”
Assertion Contradicted
Darbyshire: Archer Technologies generates $700M ARR with 90%+ renewal rates
“At the beginning was that we sold that company in 2009, but that company now does seven hundred million a year in recurring revenue, 90 plus percent renewal rates going public this year.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Netcore Cloud plans to IPO in India within 12 months
“We're also planning to do an IPO in India in about 12 months time.”
Assertion Contradicted
Netcore Cloud historically operates at 17% to 18% profit margins
“So our profit margins have basically been about 17 to 18%.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Latka: Sumsub can achieve over a $1 billion valuation in Series B
“I think they can get over a billion dollar valuation.”
Assertion Contradicted
LaCivita: Play is the first native iOS design tool for teams
“So we're the first native iOS design tool for teams to design, prototype, and share directly on their device.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Darbyshire: Archer Technologies will go public in 2022
“They're going to go public this year.”
Assertion Contradicted
OzoneTel was the first cloud contact center service in India
“Basically, the cloud contact center market didn't exist in India when we launched in 2011. We were the first cloud contact center service.”
Assertion Contradicted
Medicare and major payers reimburse Clair Labs' remote patient monitoring services
“The way it works, the business model, is that our customers are providers, our healthcare providers, and they are offering it under, I will call, an umbrella of RPM, remote patient monitoring services, which is reimbursed by Medicare and all major healthcare p…”
Assertion Contradicted
The average COPD patient is hospitalized yearly at a $12,000 cost
“So an average COPD patient, which is diagnosed as such, is having an average incident of hospitalization at least once a year. And this hospitalization is costing 12,000 dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Clair Labs' contact-free device monitors sleeping patients from up to six feet
“Five to six feet. Not 10 feet. Up to six feet. It's enough.”
Assertion Contradicted
Simons: Half of debt defendants claim they are sued for unowned debt
“According to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, about 50% of people that are sued for debt say they're being sued for debt they don't owe.”
Assertion Contradicted
Miles: Salad is being sued over website accessibility standards
“We're actually getting sued for accessibility on our website. So we've had to bring our website into spec.”