why aren't all 102 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Salesforce Experienced Zero Customer Churn During the 2008 Financial Crisis
“There was no churn in 2008, 2009. There was none. But there, but NRR shrunk, right? But there was no churn. There was no churn in the worst downturn of my lifetime.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shen: Figma Raised $50M Before Generating Its First Dollar of Revenue
“Most people don't realize they actually raised fifty million dollars before actually generating their first dollar of revenue.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hariharan: PostHog converted only 30 of 30,000 signups when launching paid tier
“There's another company that went through YC called PostHog. It was one of the most successful open source product analytics launch that they did through YC. Top number one on Hacker News. 30,000 signups. James was extremely confident that when he turns on the…”
Assertion Contradicted
Pigment signed Figma, dbt, Carta, Brex, and Gong within six months
“Some are actually iconic SaaS brands, so you probably know the Figma, the DBT of this world. Some are very famous brands for CFOs, Carta, Brex. Some are iconic brands for sales team. I can talk about Gong, for instance.”
Assertion Contradicted
Eifrem: NASA stated Neo4j will get humanity to Mars two years earlier
“Like the mission to Mars where NASA's on the record saying that thanks to Neo for J humanity will get To Mars two years earlier.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sloan: Ten million salespeople work in the technology industry alone
“There are ten million salespeople in the technology industry alone”
Assertion Contradicted
Toast avoided churn outside March 2020 via hybrid hardware-software model
“The only time they had churn was March of 2020 because of that craziness. And ever since then, and every time before then, they had no churn because of that hybrid hardware-software combination.”
Assertion Contradicted
HubSpot was the only CRM provider offering freemium in 2014
“No one else was doing freemium in the CRM space.”
Assertion Contradicted
Global trade has grown 4% annually for over 800 years
“It has grown four percent annually for over 800 years, which is a nice slide to present to investors.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schatz: Only 0.4% of US startups ever reach $100M in revenue
“It's crazy to think I saw a stat that every year in the U.S., from all the companies that are founded, only .4% will ever hit a hundred million.”
Assertion Contradicted
Smith: Qualtrics grew 47% to $500M in sales prior to SAP deal
“I mean, we grew up 47% last year, five hundred million in sales.”
Assertion Contradicted
Stewart: Enterprise no-hire clauses are not enforceable in most US states
“The no hire clauses are kind of BS. They're not really enforceable in most states.”
Assertion Contradicted
Tunguz: Google's WaveNet generates speech indistinguishable from human voices
“Google has a product called WaveNet. It's a computer that speaks so well that no human can tell it's a computer.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Klarna Trades Down 48% From Its IPO Price
“Klarna IPO got out. I think it's down 48% as of today from its IPO.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Revenue Per Employee Up 2.6x at HubSpot Since 2021
“Since 2021, this is their efficiency ratio, their revenue per employee. HubSpot up 2.6 X, even Salesforce up 2.2 X.”
Assertion Contradicted
Queener: Salesforce Spent 60 Cents Per Dollar on Physical Servers in 2003
“In 2003, when I was working at salesforce.com, we took 60 cents of every dollar that we collect from customers and we bought servers and put them in our own data centers.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lerutte: Artisan plans to automate campaign pitch ingestion by year-end
“I do know Jasper from artisan says that's coming by end of year, but right now you just put it in yourself, you know, pick the best pain points, improve points.”
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI Surpassed BloombergGPT Within Three Months of Its Launch
“Bloomberg trained a model Bloomberg GPT that outperformed the latest OpenAI model of the time. And then three months later, OpenAI shipped the new model, and it was way better.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: HubSpot now sells more CRM than marketing software
“They now sell more CRM than marketing.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Klaviyo generates 40% of its $1B revenue via agencies and partners
“Clayville gets 40% of its one billion in revenue through agencies and partners.”
Assertion Contradicted
Padelford: Domino's generates $6B in revenue from 9,000 stores
“Domino's is a six billion dollar revenue company off 9000 stores.”
Assertion Contradicted
Padelford: Last year set a record for pizza shop openings
“Last year as a fun fact was the top year for pizza shops growing sorry, pizza shops opening ever.”
Assertion Contradicted
Veeva Systems reached a $35B valuation raising just $3M in capital
“Peter Gassner, who is the founder of Viva, which is worth thirty-five billion. It only raised three million in primary capital.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lacerte: Bill net revenue retention increased to 124%
“In fact, I think in the last quarter numbers, we announced that the net revenue retention had bumped up to one 24, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lacerte: Bill.com has reached 121,000 customers
“Yeah, a 121,000.”
Assertion Contradicted
Tunguz: Microsoft OpenAI customer count tripled in recent quarter
“You look at the total number of customers that are starting to use Microsoft's OpenAI technology has three X, I think, in the last quarter in the reporting.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Zoom revenue grew from $1B to $4B in a single year
“You know, we saw the biggest with Zoom, which went from one to four billion in one year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Samsara hit growth low in Q2 2022 and re-accelerated for four quarters
“They hit it, actually, in Q-two of twenty-twenty-two, where this high flyer's growth sort of came down to earth. They stopped accelerating growth. But what happened the last four quarters? Slow re-acceleration, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Total SaaS spending is 100x larger today than in 2014
“But SAS is literally, we should do the math. It's gotta be a hundred times bigger in terms of spend, right? Just think about that's a decade of 20 to 30% annual growth compounding.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: UiPath Shifted From $400M Loss to Near Breakeven in One Year
“UiPath went from losing four hundred million in a year to being almost breakeven the next year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Robertson: On average, customers only use 61% of a software product
“On average, 61% of your product is actually used across all of technology.”
Assertion Contradicted
Robertson: Handwritten direct mail achieves a 300% higher open rate
“You get a 300% better open rate to a thank you note or to a handwritten note than you actually do to something that isn't handwritten when you send something in the mail.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lenta: AWS Australia generated $10M in its first year in 2011
“I think we did ten million dollars in our first year running a few websites in, ah, in 2011 for Amazon Web Services”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: HubSpot's Service Hub reached $100M ARR growing at 50%
“Service hub, you've got a hundred million dollar business growing 50%, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
The App Store hit 3M apps before Braze reached $2M ARR
“Three million apps in the App Store before we got to two million in ARR.”
Assertion Contradicted
Halligan: Over half of HubSpot's leadership and board are female
“Half of HubSpot's leadership team, more than half are female, and more than half of the board is females”
Assertion Contradicted
Qualtrics had one-third services revenue in its $8B SAP acquisition
“Qualtrics went public, and also before they went public, they sold to SAP for eight billion dollars, and, you know, when they, when you look at their S-one they were about to go public before they got bought. They actually had a third of the revenue was servic…”
Assertion Contradicted
Bedecarre: Facebook signed the largest office lease in Austin history
“Facebook just did the biggest office lease in history in Austin.”
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: Auth0 reduced sales cycle length by 50% via cloud marketplaces
“AuthZero found that their size cycle, sales cycle diminished by about 50% in this channel alone.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bonnici: Over 10 Million Business Buyers Visit G2 Monthly
“We changed it to G-II, the world's largest software marketplace where You know, over ten million business buyers go to it every month to find the right software for them.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bonnici: HubSpot launched its Japan blog 3 years before hiring sales
“When I was looking at APAC marketing for HubSpot, I think about three years before we started, before we hired a salesperson for Japan, we launched the Japanese HubSpot blog.”
Assertion Contradicted
Perret: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios reached $10B AUM in one month
“And this Schwab product, they launched it, and a month later they had ten billion dollars in asset center management.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ferrara: Amazon 2019 earnings transcript mentioned AWS 78 times and retail twice
“So this analyst, Artie Levy from CNBC, took the Amazon earnings transcript from earlier this year, and he actually counted the words, counted the number of times that words like AWS or retail or Alexa were mentioned. Retail was mentioned twice. That's it. And …”
Assertion Contradicted
Adweek named Lucidchart's series the only ad campaign that mattered in 2018
“And actually, it was recognized by Adweek last year as, quote, the only ad campaign that truly mattered in 2018.”
Assertion Contradicted
Deeter: December 2018 Was the Worst December in NASDAQ History
“December alone was the single worst December in the entire history of the NASDAQ index.”
Assertion Contradicted
Halligan: HubSpot's revenue splits evenly across small, mid-market, and enterprise tiers
“We have three segments at HubSpot. Small, which is two to 20 employees. Medium, 20 to 200 employees. And large, 200 to 2000 employees. And the revenue split about even across the three.”
Assertion Contradicted
Princen: SaaS businesses have COGS between 5% and 15%
“SAS businesses don't have high cost of goods sold. So, you know, they have between five and 15%.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gunderson: Nine of Apple's 13 acquisitions in 2013 were geo-related
“I think that, that, that, that year Apple bought, of their 13 acquisitions, nine of them were geo-related.”