The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 282 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 52 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mauborgne: Directing AI at productivity causes short-term job displacement
“As long as we're using technology, AI, and we direct it at productivity, which is important, and while there may be new jobs created in the medium to long term, usually disruption in the short to medium term, Starts to let even more people go.”
Bongiorno: The traditional concept of a software app will disappear
“The traditional idea of what an app is, is, is effectively gonna disappear and it kind of already has.”
Berdichevsky: Sila will achieve a 40 percent energy density improvement over graphite
“And so that's where the technology is today, and then over the next few years, we'll get that to a 30% improvement. Eventually, we think we can get that to a 40% improvement over state-of-the-art graphite chemistries.”
Berdichevsky: First consumer cars with Sila technology expected in 2026
“And right now we're planning to be complete with the Current phase of the factory, what we call phase one at the end of this year, and we'll spend the first half of next year bringing that online very carefully to make very high quality product, and we'll begi…”
Sewitz: Insect protein industry could be viable in 10 to 30 years
“And I do still believe that on the time frame of 10, 20, 30 years, it was totally something that could be viable as an entire industry”
Carbon removal credit prices will eventually coalesce around $300 per ton
“And, you know, there's, we think that the price is going to coalesce around 300 dollars per ton, given where the supply and demand, ah, is.”
Yassin: Room exists globally for 195 localized 'Hollywoods' to emerge
“In the future, there is a room for a 195 more Hollywoods to be created. The days in which the whole world is watching Will Smith on TV and Tom Cruise for the 55th movie are done.”
Yassin: Future Creator Economy Jobs Will Come From Paid Micro-Communities
“I'm a runner. I start a community for a hundred people. I create content for a hundred people, and each one of them gives me 10 bucks. I'm already making a thousand bucks a month, so you can create new jobs, and that's where the future is heading, in my opinio…”
Wolfe Herd: Raising user self-esteem will reduce harassment and ghosting in dating
“If you have a user base and a supply of people Feeling better about themselves with higher levels of self-esteem, what do you get less of? Abuse? Harassment? Toxicity? Ghosting? All the icky stuff that comes with dating will subsequently decline.”
Scaringe: Global EV adoption will require hundreds of distinct vehicle models
“I don't think we're going to end up in a world where there's one or two electric vehicles that we produce. 70, eighty million of a year that the whole world buys exactly those two or three products. I think the world needs, you know, lots of products, hundreds…”
Lacy: Whole-body MRI screening will inevitably achieve widespread medical adoption
“And I think these statements that were made actually have also been made about pap smear between when it was invented and when it was adopted, mammograms. So this is a very, very natural Point in the journey from a potentially breakthrough screening technology…”
Wolfe Herd predicts AI will become how people meet each other
“AI is how we are going to meet people.”
Wolfe Herd: Boosting user self-esteem decreases platform toxicity and ghosting
“If you have a user base and a supply of people feeling better about themselves with higher levels of self-esteem, what do you get less of? Abuse, harassment, toxicity, ghosting, all the icky stuff that comes with dating will subsequently decline.”
Redefine Meat can be cheaper than animal meat at small scale
“As we grow with that, we will become cheaper in our production and we can lower the price and we can easily become at small scale cheaper than meat.”
Point-to-point mesh networks will soon replace hub-and-spoke express air cargo
“So the hub and spoke network of yesterday will be replaced by a mesh network of the future where We have already saturated, as you pointed out, Memphis and Louisville. You can't put any more jets in there every night.”
Fambro: 1,000-mile range EVs are imminent, led by Aptera's aerodynamic design
“I definitely think so. I think Aptera is going to show the way because of the way technology is right now, there's no other way it's achievable without this extreme obsession with efficiency. There's no other platform out there that can do it. So the vehicles,…”
Chris Ruder Predicts Roundnet Will Eventually Become an Olympic Sport
“Yeah, I absolutely think we will be recognized by the Olympics. I think there will be professional round net players, and we will be considered a legitimate sport.”
Jeff Lawson: Future company offices will be showrooms, offsites, and coffee shops
“I personally believe that the future of a company like ours, I think that the company's offices are going to consist of three different types of locations. I think you'll have number one, like a showroom, the place where you bring customers or like recruits or…”
Cole: Slutty Vegan will become what Pepsi and Coca-Cola are to America
“The brand is going to be what Pepsi is to America. What Coca-Cola is to America. They're not selling products. What they're selling is an experience, and however that experience comes is what Slutty Vegan is going to do.”
Scholl: All long-haul airplanes will ultimately adopt synthetic fuel
“This is what I think ultimately every long-haul airplane is going to do. This is the way we decarbonize long-haul air travel.”
Wastewater platforms will eventually track chronic diseases like cancer and diabetes
“I absolutely see the future where we will have enough data to start to learn kind of predictive components of data To then be able to look at those other more chronic diseases and ultimately, of course, be able to flag a new threat before anybody else knows ab…”
Ali: Chomps is five to seven years away from a billion dollars
“We've got a good five to seven years to continue to build towards that billion dollars.”
Menker: Nitrogen shortages will cut global food supply by 216 trillion calories
“What we see now is that basically just the nitrogen problem alone is going to lead to a reduction of 216 trillion calories around the world. And that's just simply due to the fact that using less fertilizer is going to lead to a reduction in yield.”
Wood: US TV Advertising's $80B Market Will Entirely Move to Streaming
“You know, there's, I don't know, 70, eighty billion dollars a year spent on TV advertising in the US alone, and it's all moving to streaming.”
Elkabetz: Decarbonization impact will take 50 years to be realized
“Even if we're successful, which I really, really hope we will be in decarbonization, we'll see the impact in 50 years.”
Eremenko: The ATR 72 will be the first commercial hydrogen airliner
“The airplane we are specifically targeting as the first hydrogen airplane, and which will be the largest hydrogen airplane to enter service, will be the ATR 72, which is about a 50 to 60 passenger airplane, and flies about a thousand kilometers.”
Eremenko: Second-generation electric air taxis will use hydrogen fuel cells
“I'm willing to bet as a second generation, after the first generation is battery powered, the second generation will be hydrogen fuel cell powered.”
Eremenko: Universal Hydrogen will fly first retrofit ATR by 2025
“Yes, we are. The long lead item for that is FAA certification, and we have been quite conscientious about bringing the FAA on the journey with us, right? Making sure that we don't just design it and throw it over the wall and say, please certify this, right?”
Eremenko: Without hydrogen, cutting flight traffic will become only decarbonization option
“Today. It's a few percent of global CO two emissions very quickly. I think aviation will start to stick out as a sore thumb, right? As an industry that is incredibly difficult to decarbonize and doesn't have a credible decarbonization roadmap, at which point t…”
Altman: AI will become a ubiquitous layer across all software
“And I think the same thing will happen for AI. There will be a layer of intelligence provided by us and others. It's just everywhere. And as the systems continually get smarter, everything you use will get smarter and smarter as well.”
Friesen: Renewable water hydropanels will follow exponential cost-reduction curves
“Where exponentiality has enabled solar to be really cheap, has enabled DNA testing, that's a minuscule fraction of what it was 20 years ago. Smartphones, et cetera. And the same thing is true when we started talking about renewable water. We started talking ab…”
Quaise will start field drilling in 2024, repower plant by 2028
“So, twenty-twenty-four is what we say we're going to do, and after that, you start the journey towards repairing a power plant, and that takes us the better part of the rest of the decade. So, twenty-twenty-seven, 28 is when we intend to repair the first power…”
Baird: NYC will get most electricity from Quebec hydro by 2023
“What we do have in New York City is we get most of our electricity, or will next year, from a hydroelectric project in Quebec. Oh. And so there's this giant dam in Quebec that spins a bunch of turbines, and Produces clean electricity and sends that electricity…”
Wurzbacher: Direct air capture will reach million-ton scale by 2030
“This industry is set up to scaling up to the million tons per year scale in the next couple of Years towards the end of this decade. So that's what will happen. We are doing that like a handful of other companies are working towards that.”
Tatarko: COVID-driven home renovation and space optimization demand is permanent
“So, yeah, it really changed the dynamic, and I think it's here to stay because our mindset about our house completely changed.”
Marshall: Planet projects over 40% annual growth and profitability within two years
“So we have very clear line of sight now on a growth path, you know, going just over 40% a year for the next five years we project. And that gets us to profitability in the next couple of years.”
Afeyan: Early immune interventions may shield against flu, coronavirus, and HIV
“Because I think that we're learning enough about the immune system that if we intervene early enough and broadly enough, we may well create a shield, a protective shield against these hyper variable viruses like influenza, like Corona, like rhinovirus that cau…”
Reffkin: Real estate demand for larger homes has permanently shifted
“On the real estate side, I think that we have a permanent shift in the demand curve, where people will continue to want more space and more multiple home ownership.”
Chen predicts corporate governance will become the primary differentiator for companies
“I mean, at the organizational governance level, the corporate governance level, I think that's a big thing that people are going to start paying more and more attention to. We've been running so much on this kind of totally profit-centric system in the U.S., a…”
Davison: Future generations will expect ambient data on nearby people
“I do think that our grandchildren will think it's crazy that that's the way the world used to work. Just like we can't imagine a world without the internet and without instant access to information and phones.”
Live music consolidation will lead to pricier tickets and less diversity
“The tickets will get more expensive. I think there'll be less diversity in music as a result, but you know, the laws are changing, right?”
Rief: Media consumption will shift from legacy institutions toward individual creators
“I think there is very much a push towards individuals and away from institutions. We're seeing that as a society as a whole, but also within the media world, and so I think that will also rise, and I think news and media in general will get more and more niche…”
Abuzeid: US will be 1 million nurses short by 2024
“Like by 20, 24, we're going to be one million nurses short. And that shortage just keeps getting worse and worse.”
Contee: Startups led by women, minorities, and rural founders are undervalued
“Doubling down on investing in small businesses, especially from women, especially from minorities, especially from rural areas in innovative startups that are rising up because those are the businesses right now that are undervalued and are going to overperfor…”
Bawa: Post-COVID Gen Z will mirror the post-WWII generation's financial consciousness
“Coming out of this, generally on the whole, there's good reason to believe that this generation is going to be really conscious, a bit like after World War II really conscious of financials, very conscious of how lucky they are, how privileged, how quickly thi…”
Zimmer: Geofencing virtual concerts will help musical artists earn livings
“I don't know that they'll make up the same revenue from those events, but I think they will be able to earn a living
Doing live events, especially if we can figure out the right ways to sort of geofence a live event.”