The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 112 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 112 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grantham: Global warming will reach 3.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius
“The truth is we are not going to contain the climate warming of one and a half degrees or two degrees, that we are struggling to determine where in the zone over three degrees centigrade we'll end up. My guess is between three and three and a half degrees cent…”
Liow in 2021: S&P 500 will struggle to exceed mid-single digit returns
“In fact, I think it's challenging to do even higher than mid-single digits this next decade.”
Vanguard private equity will outperform public equity by 200-500 basis points
“We feel confident that this private equity offer will outperform public equity, whether it's two, three, four, 500 basis points.”
Siegel: Long-term investors should tilt toward value over growth over 10-20 years
“If you're a long-term investor, you should probably tilt your portfolio toward value, not growth at this point. You may lose for a while, but in 10 or 20 years, you'll be very happy.”
Siegel: Global Population Will Peak Late This Century and Then Decline
“The population is going to continue to grow slowly and peak late in this century and then begin to decline.”
Inker: US Value Spread Suggests Value Stocks Will Win Over 5-10 Years
“Again, in the US, the value spread is significantly wider than normal, and that probably means value deserves to win over the next five to 10 years.”
US equity markets will deliver 8% to 10% annualized returns through 2029
“No, I think the next 10 years in the equity markets, the U.S., and I think globally will be better, but let's just say the U.S., I still think we'll get eight to 10%, and I think it's because rates are still low and money has to go to work somewhere, so I stil…”
Friedman: Opportunity Zones will attract over $1 trillion in capital
“Right now it's probably seven, eight trillion dollars, but it's growing in another two and a half trillion dollars every year, and so that over a period of time, we believe at least a trillion dollars of capital is going to flow from one area, one geography, t…”
Scheer: Endowment spending rules should drop to the 3% range
“The five percent spending rule makes absolutely no sense for about the last 20 years. And so a lot of folks are addressing that by reducing their spending policies. I think four is the new five among endowments. Should probably be three handle and I bet it wil…”
Friedman: Opportunity Zones will drive $1T to $3T in total investment
“It's creating a tax advantage way to invest in, in these areas, which I believe over time will have a big impact, and certainly one of the biggest impact over time is on the economy, because I believe it'll be One, two, three trillion dollars.”
Malpass predicted a 60/40 portfolio would return under 5.5% over the next decade
“Sixty-forty, the last 10 years was probably five, five and a half percent, and it feels to me like the next 10 years could be that or worse.”
Jain: S&P earnings upgrades from memory price spikes will not last
“I'm now excluding the recent spike in memory prices leading to S&P earnings upgrades. That won't last memories as cyclical as they come.”
Grefenstette: Dietrich Foundation allocates an outlier 52% of total NAV to venture
“Dietrich Foundation is 1.6 billion in total assets, and we have pretty unusual allocation where about 90% of our assets are in private strategies. Venture capital alone is around 52% of the total NAV right now, which is quite the outlier”
Grefenstette: New limited partners entering venture in 2020 face tough vintages
“There are a lot of new entrants, new LPs who came in to venture in, unfortunately, 20 and 21. These are gonna be tough vintages.”
Monk: New Mexico SIC will soon surpass Alaska as largest US sovereign fund
“Because of the scale of that organization, they're gonna add 20 to thirty billion dollars. They will soon be the biggest sovereign fund in America, passing Alaska.”
Mogelof: Wealth Allocations to Alternatives Will Exceed 10% to 15%
“Based upon our conversations with wealth platforms and advisors, we think that two to three percent should ultimately be 10, 15 plus percent. And if you were to do the numbers, that just means that there's literally trillions of dollars of money that's in moti…”
Mogelof: 30% to 50% of KKR Capital Raised Will Come From Wealth
“I think our co-CEO, Scott Nuttall, was on the record saying that over time, we would envision that 30 to 50% of our capital that we're raising is coming from the wealth channels.”
Matthews: Women will control over 50% of US wealth by 2032
“In seven years, they're going to control over 50% of the wealth in the United States because of this baby boomer phenomenon.”
Papic: Congress Will Not Revoke Trump's Tariff Authority
“You've got the House and the Senate talking about taking away tariff rights from President Trump. It's not going to happen, but they're talking.”
Gave: Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will not flare up soon
“Europe has this Damocles sword over its head with the Euro, which pops up every three, four, five years. I don't think it pops up over the next couple years”
The private capital market will grow to $30 trillion by 2030
“If you think about a 15 trillion dollar private capital market that's going to grow to 30 trillion by 2030, our opportunity is to inject liquidity into that market.”
Masters: Retail alternative allocations will rise from 3% to institutional levels
“Retail and just merely high net worth as a segment, very under allocated to alternatives. A typical allocation will be in the very low single digits, less than three percent. Institutional allocations are 20 to 30%. That's going to shift.”
Birmingham: Remote work will decrease over the next five years
“I think certain fields will get back to what it used to be. I don't think everyone's going to now be hybrid. I don't think the new norm is remote work as much as it is now. Andy always does this to me. If you were going to make a bet that in five years it woul…”
Giannini: Private Wealth Will Grow for 10 Years but Favor Scaled GPs
“That will continue to be a growing part of the market. It will have hiccups. We saw the ones at the end of last year on some of the name products, and so I think people need to be careful in terms of how they're selling into that market, the investor base that…”
Steyer: India will generate five times more electricity in 2050 than today
“If you look at India, they're going to have five times as much electricity in 20 50 as they have now.”
Brown: Up to $10T will shift from wealth to alts next decade
“So really what we're seeing here is not only a growing wealth market overall, growing allocations to alternative investments, say from three to five percent, 10%, or 15%, which is causing really a massive reallocation of capital from traditional assets to alte…”
Top-tier venture managers will deliver the best returns over 10-20 years
“The skill That exists and the innovation that exists, whether it's in Silicon Valley or whether it's in New York and other technology hubs, will continue to make investing in top tier venture managers the most attractive returned over, not necessarily the next…”
Montgomery: Edge computing startup could reach $40B to $50B in 10 years
“So we're building one company that we think will be the AWS of the edge. We think we can build a company that's worth 40, fifty billion dollars in 10 years.”
Chinese venture capital market will eventually match US in size
“It's, if it's not yet, it will be as big as the US market, but it really hadn't started yet.”
Siegel: Global economic growth will match or exceed historical 3.5% rate
“Meanwhile, global growth should proceed around three and a half. Which is the historical rate. I think it'll be better, actually, because we have been in a slow period for the United States.”
Wertheim: Sports betting will be ubiquitous, mobile, and live in-game
“I mean, I think that pretty soon we're going to be at a place where sports gambling, in different iterations, is going to be legal everywhere, that we're not just betting on point spreads and Whether the Patriots are going to beat the Jets, but we're going to …”
Bill Spitz Predicts 60/40 Portfolios Will Yield Mid-Single-Digit Returns Post-2018
“And where we end up is sort of a ten-year expected return on equities of Five-ish, let's call it five and some change, a little more for international stocks. Bonds are sort of three-ish. So I think looking ahead, the simple sixty-forty portfolio is going to g…”
Solomon: Active Management Will Not Disappear
“One, active management isn't going away. So I think there will always be a portion of the market that wants to outperform and is willing to pay for the option around outperformance. So I think that's going to still be here.”
Kleinman: Apollo reaches $1T AUM with half from captive insurance capital
“We'll end the year pro forma for an acquisition right around a trillion dollars. Half of that, five hundred billion of that is our own captive insurance capital. One out of every two dollars we invest is for our own balance sheet, our own company.”
Mogelof: Managed accounts and custom target dates will drive private markets adoption
“I would say over the next three to five years, the off-the-shelf is going to take the longest time to get adoption to move, but in the meantime, you're going to see a lot of allocations through managed accounts and custom target date.”
Clarke predicts Australia's superannuation industry will become the world's second-largest
“The Australian superannuation industry is going to be the second largest in the world.”
Wirehouses will drive largest wealth flows into private markets
“The wires, I still think will be the largest source of flows from the wealth channel into private markets.”
McCusker: TH Lee will face another Hightower transaction in a few years
“Hightower is owned by TH Lee. It's been a very successful investment for them. They've rolled it into a continuation fund. That continuation fund has a life on it, and they'll have to figure out something. There will be another transaction a few years from now…”
Krinsky: Pathstone will undergo future private equity recapitalizations
“I absolutely expect that there will be more than one transaction at the private equity sponsor level. Somebody's going to come in and buy out the early private equity investors or just join as a third private equity sponsor of Pastone to continue that growth.”
Bank: College-age population will drop 15% over next few years
“On top of that, you have an enrollment cliff coming around the pike because people stopped having children in the global financial crisis, and so those kids would be 17 or 18 years old now, enrolling in college in theory, but there's gonna be 15% fewer of them…”
Tannenbaum: India can probably reach Peru's per-capita GDP in 25 years
“It's over two and a half decades to hit the level of Peru and Ecuador and Botswana. And that's something a lot of countries have done over the last half century, and I think probably India can do too.”
Housel: Economy Will See 6 to 10 Recessions Over Next 30 Years
“If you're going to be in this business for another 30 years, if you're lucky, if things are good, we'll probably have at least six or seven or 10 more recessions.”
The direct lending market will grow roughly 15% annually through 2028
“So I think the private credit market's going to grow direct lending by, let's say, 15% a year for the next five years.”
Mullen: Pretium aims to scale to $250 billion AUM within 10 years
“So our aspirations are to be a two hundred billion or two hundred fifty billion dollar alt manager, hopefully faster than 10 years.”
Resnick: Travel spending will grow at more than double GDP growth
“It's projected to grow more than double that of GDP if you look at over the next decade.”
Resnick: Tented eco-resorts have an 80% smaller carbon footprint than traditional hotels
“Your carbon footprint is 80% less than what it would be in a traditional hotel, and you're basically living in the middle of nature, but you're not sacrificing a comfortable bed and a shower to do it.”
Marshall: SEC emissions rules will expand to all registered investment firms
“We don't think this will stop at public equity, by the way. We think it'll go through to all SEC registered investment firms, because that is the intent of the SEC in all of their working papers.”
CPPIB expects its assets to double to $1 trillion by 2029
“I think it's hard to conceive of a fund like ours of five hundred billion dollars going to a trillion over the next six or seven years or so. It is hard to conceive of us maximizing returns at a particular target level of risk without truly global exposure to …”