Europe

67 statements across 46 episodes · 17 bullish · 23 bearish · 43 people on the record · first statement Sep 18, 2017 by Scott Malpass · said 779 times in 256 episodes since 2017 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Ted Seides (93), Louis-Vincent Gave (43), James Aitken (36), Mathieu Chabran (21), Marko Papic (20), Ana Marshall (10), Virginie Morgon (9), Magnus Grimeland (9)

tap a year for its mentions
0010020200402017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
020402017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
003206402017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 39 mentions in 20 episodes 2 per episode
2025 67 mentions in 25 episodes 3 per episode
2024 62 mentions in 25 episodes 2 per episode
2023 108 mentions in 38 episodes 3 per episode
2022 174 mentions in 34 episodes 5 per episode
2021 92 mentions in 32 episodes 3 per episode
2020 114 mentions in 31 episodes 4 per episode
2019 71 mentions in 22 episodes 3 per episode
2018 23 mentions in 14 episodes 2 per episode
2017 29 mentions in 15 episodes 2 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Europe, oldest first

Sep 18, 2017 bullish
Opinion
European middle market private equity is attractive due to struggling local banks
“In private equity, we've always done more of that middle market and lower middle market. And in Europe, that's a very attractive space right now, because the banks are struggling so much.”
Scott Malpass Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 32:50 Scott Malpass – The Fighting Irish's Twelfth Man (Capital Allocators, EP.25)
Jun 25, 2018 bearish
Opinion
Probability of Widespread Eurozone Structural Reform Is Rapidly Decreasing
“There's no banking union. There's no capital markets union. And arguably, given the setbacks, the self-inflicted setbacks that Merkel has had, You know, the probability that we're going to get widespread structural reform is going down by the minute”
James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 1:03:21 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)
Jul 23, 2018 negative
Opinion
Friedman: European negative interest rates are artificial and unprecedented
“Historically, we've never had in history, it's impossible, it's like we have in Europe, negative interest rates. There's no such thing in history, it's artificial.”
Manny Friedman Jul 23, 2018 ▶ 38:57 Manny Friedman – Non-Linear Financial Systems (Capital Allocators, EP.61)
May 20, 2019 bearish
Disclosure
The James Irvine Foundation Has Zeroed Out European Private Equity
“Even how we construct our managers, where they're located, like we basically have zeroed out private equity in Europe.”
Tim Recker May 20, 2019 ▶ 35:45 Tim Recker - Concentration at the James Irvine Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.100)
Aug 19, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Druley: Impact investing demand is larger in Europe than the US
“And it's as big as it is in the U.S., it's even A bigger deal in the UK and Europe.”
David Druley Aug 19, 2019 ▶ 31:22 David Druley – Structure into Action at Cambridge Associates (Capital Allocators, EP. 106)
Oct 28, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Fontana: Europe produces more AI research than the US or China
“There's more AI research coming out of Europe than anywhere in the world. More than the US, more than China.”
Ash Fontana Oct 28, 2019 ▶ 28:57 Ash Fontana – Investing in Artificial Intelligence at Zetta Ventures (First Meeting, EP.11)
Nov 18, 2019 bearish
Opinion
Rattner: Willett is significantly underweight Europe due to profoundly unattractive fundamentals
“We're way underweight Europe. There are many days when I wake up and think we should just leave altogether. There's nothing attractive about the fundamentals.”
Steve Rattner Nov 18, 2019 ▶ 35:54 Steve Rattner – Overseeing Michael Bloomberg's Family Office (Capital Allocators, EP.113)
Nov 25, 2019 neutral
Insight
Market Behavioral Biases Are Identical Across the US, Europe, and Asia
“The behavioral stuff's all the same. We all make the same mistakes. I have the same biases that I try to shed and my team tries to shed. Mr. Market has the same biases. They overreact to bad news and vivid recent information. They underreact to things which di…”
Drew Dickson Nov 25, 2019 ▶ 19:59 Drew Dickson – Blending Behavior and Fundamentals at Albert Bridge Capital (First Meeting, EP.13)
Jan 20, 2020
Disclosure
Clarkson: Sapphire allocates ~70% to US, 20-25% to Europe, remainder to Israel
“And so one of the early decisions we made was, loosely speaking, we're about 70% U.S., and then about 20 to 25% Europe, and the remainder in Israel.”
Beezer Clarkson Jan 20, 2020 ▶ 21:57 Beezer Clarkson – Sapphire Gem of Early Stage Venture (Capital Allocators, EP.120)
Feb 17, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Cheap LBO opportunities exist in Europe and Asia, but not the US
“Now, I think in Europe or in Asia, I think there are still cheap LBO opportunities, right? So a firm like Bain or Blackstone, they're still seeing opportunities to do really attractive buyouts ex-U.S. But within the U.S., you can't.”
Dan Rasmussen Feb 17, 2020 ▶ 23:55 Dan Rasmussen – Private Equity Risk and Public Equity Opportunity at Verdad Advisers (First Meeting, EP.15)
Mar 9, 2020 bullish
Opinion
Hamilton: European Markets Offer More Alpha Than China Due to Complexity
“If you look at Europe, actually, I would argue that there's more alpha there because there's more regulation. There's less transparency. It's very difficult because a lot of times it helps to be part of the culture and to speak the language. And if you could b…”
Christy Hamilton Mar 9, 2020 ▶ 24:21 Christie Hamilton – Tweeting on Allocation at Children's Health (Capital Allocators, EP.124)
Mar 16, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fleming: US institutional ESG adoption will significantly accelerate, following Europe
“We think that this is a time when the U.S. Is going to follow. It's not always the case when you're looking at whether it's investing or lots of other things in life, but it's so compelling in Europe and so important and now being talked about everywhere in th…”
Greg Fleming Mar 16, 2020 ▶ 38:04 Greg Fleming – Building and Running Rockefeller Capital Management (Capital Allocators, EP.125)
Mar 30, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Inker: Valuation spreads in Europe and Japan lack underlying economic justification
“But if you look at Europe, if you look at Japan, if you look at the emerging worlds, the spreads are both wider, and the underlying economic justification for them is a lot more tenuous.”
Ben Inker Mar 30, 2020 ▶ 33:14 Ben Inker – Value Investing at GMO (First Meeting, EP.17)
Jun 8, 2020 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cromwell: Sustainable investing regulation leads in Europe, Australia, and Canada over US
“Europe is very active and hard to came up with, I will say, and some of it is by country, and some of it is at the EU level, and we see similar activity in Australia, for example, and in Canada, less so in the US.”
Wendy Cromwell Jun 8, 2020 ▶ 1:02:40 Sustainable Investing 1: Wendy Cromwell – The $170 Trillion Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.139)
Jun 8, 2020 positive
Insight
Nordics are innovators and Canada, Australia are early majority in ESG
“So in that innovator category, you really do see the Nordics and the Dutch, and then the early adopters, you see Europe and UK, and then early majority, you see Canada and Australia, which is really interesting, given, given their economies and the real asset …”
Wendy Cromwell Jun 8, 2020 ▶ 1:05:14 Sustainable Investing 1: Wendy Cromwell – The $170 Trillion Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.139)
Jun 15, 2020 negative
Opinion
Bob Litterman views the US as the main obstacle to climate coordination.
“I think the US is by far the stumbling block in terms of global coordination today. Europe and China And the rest of the world, frankly, are ready to move and are waiting for the US.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 24:24 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Jun 15, 2020 negative
Insight
Green investment taxonomies and subsidies do not guarantee actual emissions reductions.
“In Europe, for instance, they have this taxonomy. They define certain types of investments as green, others as brown, and then they create, for instance, tax incentives, other types of incentives. For investors to invest in green investments. Well, guess what …”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 28:57 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Jun 25, 2020 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lawrence: Carbon Disclosure Project succeeded in the West but failed in Asia
“We support CDP. We're pushing all our companies to undertake CDP work, which is formerly known as Carbon Disclosure Project. It's been very successful in Europe and the U.S., been very unsuccessful in Asia.”
Richard Lawrence Jun 25, 2020 ▶ 28:00 Sustainable Investing 6: Richard Lawrence - ESG Integration at Overlook (Capital Allocators, EP.144)
Sep 21, 2020 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Marshall Wace was roughly the third hedge fund established in Europe
“We were about the third hedge fund in Europe.”
Sir Paul Marshall Sep 21, 2020 ▶ 10:29 Paul Marshall – 10 ½ Lessons from 23 years at Marshall Wace (Capital Allocators, EP.157)
Oct 12, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chabran: Financial services has very few entrepreneurs, especially in Europe
“There are actually very little and very few entrepreneurs, you know, in the financial services business, and probably even more so in Europe.”
Mathieu Chabran Oct 12, 2020 ▶ 6:58 Mathieu Chabran – Good Deals Have No Wheels at Tikehau Capital (First Meeting, EP.23)
Oct 12, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chabran: 80% of US Companies Use Non-Bank Financing Versus 20% in Europe
“The very fact that, you know, the numbers 80% of the companies are non-bank finance in the U.S., when in Europe, the contrary, it's 20%.”
Mathieu Chabran Oct 12, 2020 ▶ 47:59 Mathieu Chabran – Good Deals Have No Wheels at Tikehau Capital (First Meeting, EP.23)
Oct 12, 2020 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chabran: Global managers retreated from Europe after the 2012 sovereign crisis
“What I saw in 2012 without being judgmental to our friends and colleagues is on the back of the sovereign crisis, a lot of the global champions, they decided to pack and go, you know, for a few years, they were gone. They were gone, you know, Euro uncertainty …”
Mathieu Chabran Oct 12, 2020 ▶ 34:12 Mathieu Chabran – Good Deals Have No Wheels at Tikehau Capital (First Meeting, EP.23)
Feb 1, 2021
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salem: Providence Equity Owned More European Cable TV and Made More Money There Than in US
“We owned the most cable TV in Europe than anybody at the time, and we made more money in Europe on cable TV than we ever did in the United States.”
Paul Salem Feb 1, 2021 ▶ 16:15 Private Equity Masters: Paul Salem – Providence Equity Partners (Capital Allocators, EP.175)
Feb 8, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baran: Most cheap Japanese companies listed for legacy, not capital
“Unlike in the U.S. Or in Europe where I'm listing because I need a liquidity event or I need to raise cash, that's generally not the case for the large majority of the cheap companies. They're listed as some kind of legacy.”
David Baran Feb 8, 2021 ▶ 23:49 David Baran and Kazuhiko Shibata – Friendly Activism in Japan at Symphony (Capital Allocators, EP.176)
May 10, 2021
Disclosure
Alderbas: PIFSS restricts Asian allocations strictly to market-neutral funds
“In the US, it's all about execution speed and technology, and we're going to go with the startups. We're only going to go occasionally with the fundamentals that have an edge or something depreciated. Asia, we said we're going to go only with the market neutra…”
Sulaiman Alderbas May 10, 2021 ▶ 28:37 Innovation in Private Markets 3: Sulaiman Alderbas – A Massive Restart at PIFSS (Capital Allocators, EP.194)
Jul 8, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: African migration to Europe will be society's primary political risk
“So I think it will be stress on those areas, and immigration, and the pressure on Europe of millions of Africans attempting to migrate will be the main political risk that we face, and a real threat to the well-being of society.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 11:53 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Jul 8, 2021 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Grantham: Real U.S. hourly wages have stagnated since the mid-1970s
“Workers, Which in the U.S. Have not had a real increase per hour work since the mid-nineteen seventies, can you believe, where even dopey Europe has more than doubled, and China and Vietnam has more than ten-tupled, and so on.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 48:01 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Feb 21, 2022 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2027
Wolfe: The Sahel and Maghreb Will Become Europe's Next Afghanistan
“I believe that that will be the next Afghanistan, particularly for Europe. I think that you will have Mali pulling France in. You will have Belgium being pulled in, you will have the UK and other EU countries adjacently being pulled in, the US being pulled in,…”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 1:04:02 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 28, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Europe will remilitarize and integrate independently of the US umbrella
“I think what it means Is Europe is going to remilitarize. If you have the mandate on the ESG side, buy some European defense stocks, but don't expect it to do so within the US umbrella. And I think that European integration is actually going to be one of the c…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 36:00 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Papic: The US and China are the only nations with Web 2.0 revolutions
“US and China are the only two countries that had this web two point O revolution. Europe doesn't have social media companies. Japan missed it completely.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 28:55 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Mar 10, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Europe is willing to tolerate recession or stagflation to oppose Putin
“If one takes the belligerent pronouncements Of European politicians and policymakers at face value, it seems that in an effort to thwart Mr. Putin, Europe is prepared to tolerate a recession, or at least something that looks awfully like a textbook definition …”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 9:03 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Mar 10, 2022 bearish
Opinion
The European Union's Stability and Growth Pact is effectively dead
“The stability and growth pack in Europe, which by the way, I think is dead anyway”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 41:51 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Mar 10, 2022 bearish
Assertion Supported
European bank stocks historically drop 40% to 45% during European recessions
“In European recessions, and we've had a couple of them over the past decade or so, European financial stocks tend to drop anywhere between 40 and 45%, in some cases a lot more.”
James Aitken Mar 10, 2022 ▶ 9:50 James Aitken – Market Implications of the Situation in Ukraine (Capital Allocators, EP.239)
Apr 11, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Europe today is no more anti-entrepreneurial than the 1950s US
“Europe's current commercial climate is no more anti-entrepreneurial than the US was in the 19 fifties.”
Sebastian Mallaby Apr 11, 2022 ▶ 42:59 Sebastian Mallaby – The Making of the New Future in Venture, Venture is Eating the Investment World 14 (Capital Allocators, EP.245)
Apr 25, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gave: Most European Clients Cannot Buy Energy or Metals Due to ESG
“I just came back from Europe, and I saw a number of our clients, and I was telling them, look, you got to own energy, and you got to own metals, and you got, most of the clients I talked to say, we can't. Like, because of ESG constraints, because of this, beca…”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 42:42 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
Apr 25, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Soaring Food and Energy Prices Will Drive Middle East Refugee Crisis
“Soon enough, you're going to get a refugee crisis coming in. From North Africa and the Middle East, if only because of soaring food prices and soaring energy prices, and the extremely likely political instability that high food prices and high energy prices te…”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 37:34 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
Apr 25, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: As Energy Prices Rise, Europe Will Go Bust
“As the energy price goes up, Europe will go bust. The only question is at what price?”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 36:20 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
Apr 25, 2022 negative
What-if
Gave: Europe's Energy Policy May Have Emboldened Russia's Invasion
“I think if Europe hadn't followed such a boneheaded energy policy, perhaps Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 33:02 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
Jul 11, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Citrone: Europe will enter recession within months if not already
“I think Europe is, if not in recession now, be in recession within a few months.”
Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 32:51 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)
Sep 15, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
KKR has 25 active broad-based employee ownership programs across US portfolio
“We started that about 12 years ago. Extended that across our entire industrials portfolio over a period of time, so we've done it maybe 12 times with manufacturing businesses, and then in total today have 25 live cases of this across all of our different verti…”
Pete Stavros Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 35:30 SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Private Equity Deals Podcast
Oct 10, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gave: Market positioning is globally crowded into US assets
“Right now, when you look at how people are positioned, everybody's positioned for option one. The U.S. Is the only place to be.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 37:50 Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
Oct 17, 2022
Insight
Griffith: Macro drivers cannot be separated from corporate investing in Europe
“Europe, you have not been able to strip the macro from the micro because the macro has been driving the micro for much of the last two decades. In the U.S. It's been much less so.”
Reade Griffith Oct 17, 2022 ▶ 25:29 Reade Griffith – Managing Assets and Partnerships at Tetragon (Capital Allocators, EP.276)
Oct 17, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Griffith: Post-2008 US bull market conditioned mid-career investors to maximize long risk
“I mean, since 2008, other than the last 12 months, the US market was just up and to the right. There are a lot of people who are in the middle of their careers who've only seen getting long risk benefit, and those who took the most risk made the most, and it's…”
Reade Griffith Oct 17, 2022 ▶ 23:27 Reade Griffith – Managing Assets and Partnerships at Tetragon (Capital Allocators, EP.276)
Oct 17, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Griffith: European markets may face much higher volatility over the next five years
“Now, the next five years in Europe may be much more volatile. If you don't have the toolkit, you're going to build the toolkit, but you're building it rather than employing it.”
Reade Griffith Oct 17, 2022 ▶ 24:53 Reade Griffith – Managing Assets and Partnerships at Tetragon (Capital Allocators, EP.276)
Oct 17, 2022
Insight
Griffith: European markets often misprice short-duration headline risks cheaply
“But what I've often seen is that there has been mispricing in Europe In what I perceive to be short duration risk, things that might happen in the next two or three months that could be very volatile, and you've been able to buy the equity market or currency o…”
Reade Griffith Oct 17, 2022 ▶ 28:03 Reade Griffith – Managing Assets and Partnerships at Tetragon (Capital Allocators, EP.276)
Oct 17, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Griffith: European markets experienced 40% drawdowns and frequent 20% drops post-2008
“I mean, the fact the markets were down 20, since 2008, we've had periods of down 40 in Europe over periods of time, let alone down 20, plenty of down twenties.”
Reade Griffith Oct 17, 2022 ▶ 23:46 Reade Griffith – Managing Assets and Partnerships at Tetragon (Capital Allocators, EP.276)
Nov 28, 2022 bearish
Opinion
US Venture Capital Brain Drain Keeps European Public Markets Heavy In Banks
“Europe tends to be very, very heavy into banks, insurance companies, there's a couple of great pharmas. Now, part of the problem isn't they're making, part of the problem is that any technology upstart, it starts in Germany, or starts in Berlin, or starts in t…”
Charles Van Vleet Nov 28, 2022 ▶ 23:52 Charles Van Vleet – Thinking Differently with Pensions at Textron (Capital Allocators, EP. 283)
May 15, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Lasry: European debt investments are overpaying for risk
“I think opportunities in Europe today are pretty large, just simply because you're getting overpaid for the risk.”
Marc Lasry May 15, 2023 ▶ 45:36 Marc Lasry – Avenues of Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.315)
May 15, 2023 neutral
Insight
Marc Lasry targets 500 bps spread for Asia credit, 200-300 bps for Europe
“For investing in Asia. I always think it should be 500 basis points more. Europe should be two to 300 basis points more. Right? US is just more liquid.”
Marc Lasry May 15, 2023 ▶ 38:28 Marc Lasry – Avenues of Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.315)
Oct 26, 2023 positive
Insight
US private credit firms must enter Europe via acquisition, not organic builds
“I wouldn't start a European lending business from scratch and grow it organically because I just think there's so many different countries. Each country's different. It's not like doing business in the U S so you need to have critical mass. And to me, you ente…”
Tim Lyne Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 39:25 Tim Lyne – Three Decades of Private Credit at Antares (EP.346)
Oct 26, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NAV lending is established in Europe and just emerging in the US
“That's pretty big today in Europe, and it's just catching on here in the U.S.”
Tim Lyne Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 30:12 Tim Lyne – Three Decades of Private Credit at Antares (EP.346)
Oct 26, 2023
Disclosure
Antares plans fundraising expansion in Europe, Asia, and wealth channels
“We're going to expand our fundraising, adding people in Europe, adding folks down the road in Asia, entering the high net worth sector.”
Tim Lyne Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 38:12 Tim Lyne – Three Decades of Private Credit at Antares (EP.346)
Nov 6, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Thacker: Value is the only viable equity strategy in Europe
“So in Europe, I really believe in value, partly because I don't see a lot of growth in Europe.”
Allison Thacker Nov 6, 2023 ▶ 38:25 Allison Thacker – Different Perspectives and Different Assets at Rice University (EP.348)
Jan 15, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Michelakis: European fundamental single-manager long-short equity has few peers left
“At least in Europe, it's still somewhat unproven. Fundamental, long, short, single manager. There's just not many of us left in a way.”
George Mikulakis Jan 15, 2024 ▶ 9:17 George Michelakis – Chess Master's Approach to Long-Short Equity at Gladstone (EP.362)
Feb 15, 2024 neutral
Insight
The geographic time lag for startup model replication has collapsed
“There used to be a time where you'd see something happening in China, let's say, and then a few years later, you'd see it in Southeast Asia, or you'd see something happen in the US, and then a couple of years later, you see it in Europe. The cadence behind tha…”
Magnus Grimeland Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 51:24 Magnus Grimeland – Day Zero Investing at Antler (EP.369)
Aug 5, 2024
Insight
Simkin: Counterparty willingness to trade illiquid assets signals severe adverse selection
“There were very esoteric products that traded in Europe that did not have a lot of liquidity, which meant that if I was trading, I was probably trading against other professionals who were doing a good job of figuring out the appropriate fair value and the exp…”
Todd Simkin Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 25:21 Todd Simkin - Game of Trading at Susquehanna (EP.399)
Aug 5, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Simkin: Susquehanna operates a sports trading unit in Ireland
“We've moved into creating a sports trading unit that is trading on sports books in Europe, and that group is in Ireland.”
Todd Simkin Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 29:52 Todd Simkin - Game of Trading at Susquehanna (EP.399)
Oct 14, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Miller: US natural gas prices are 80% lower than Europe's
“The United States, by virtue of fracking, has natural gas prices that are just structurally lower than the rest of the globe. They are 80% lower than Europe.”
Matt Miller Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 49:26 Matt Miller – Crossing the Energy Divide at Grey Rock (EP.412)
Dec 16, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Peters: Hyper US Exceptionalism Is the Most Bullish Geopolitical Scenario
“You could imagine this hyper US exceptionalism dragging the rest of the world to do things that they've been reluctant to do. That's the most bullish scenario from a geopolitical and an economic perspective.”
Eric Peters Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 43:23 Eric Peters - Paradigm Shifts and Solutions at One River (EP.422)
Apr 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gave: China and Europe expand fiscal stimulus as US consolidates
“Now the U.S. Is doing fiscal consolidation just as China and Europe step on the fiscal accelerator.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 14:10 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Apr 14, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Gave: Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will not flare up soon
“Europe has this Damocles sword over its head with the Euro, which pops up every three, four, five years. I don't think it pops up over the next couple years”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 55:26 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Apr 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Europe Will See a Tsunami of LNG Supply Disproving Deindustrialization
“Europe is going to be absolutely drowned in its tsunami wave of LNG supply that will crash on its shores over the next two years. This whole deindustrialization debate is wrong.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 57:13 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Jun 2, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
DeVeer: Ares Expects Asian Wealth Fundraising to Match European Surge
“The capital raising that we did in Europe was tremendous and a little bit of a surprise for us, and I think this year may be that year for Asia, but being global is important because I think it's a global opportunity.”
Kipp deVeer Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 14:13 Kipp deVeer – Scaling for Private Wealth Globally in Credit (Private Wealth 5, EP.449)
Jul 7, 2025 negative
Opinion
Ovitz: European business culture causes failed founders to hide in embarrassment
“And in Europe, if they fail, they're embarrassed, and they go hide.”
Michael Ovitz Jul 7, 2025 ▶ 8:51 Michael Ovitz – Reinventing Talent and Building Momentum at Treville (EP.455)
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hale: Japan ranks second globally for high-margin billion-dollar public companies
“The number one market Is the U S with about a thousand companies with over a billion market cap and above 40% gross margins. The number two market is Japan with 250. After that, you get to numbers around 50 to a hundred in countries in Europe.”
Rob Hale Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 51:24 Mason Morfit and Rob Hale – Quiet Activism at ValueAct (EP.462)
Feb 23, 2026 neutral
Insight
Grefenstette: European founders aggressively seek US venture capital firms by Series A
“A lot of the conclusions we've reached is that you might be able to find some early stage GPs locally there, but as soon as a company hits the Series A, those founders are looking for U.S. Firms.”
Ed Grefenstette Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 53:47 Ed Grefenstette and Sean Warrington – Venture Market Update (EP.488)
Jul 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Moyo: The U.S. economy has grown to nearly twice Europe's size.
“The record, even just the past, since the financial crisis, United States and Europe were about the same size. The United States is now almost two times as big.”
Baroness Dambisa Moyo Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 46:43 Economic Growth, Governance, and Capital Allocation – Dambisa Moyo (EP.510)
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