Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hamilton: Heavy Inflows into Private Equity Will Lead to Disappointing Returns
“In a world where there is so much money going into private equity right now, I mean, obviously, inflows of capital lead to price discovery, which collapses these kind of informational edges that a lot of people have built, so I do think that there are a lot of…”
Opinion
Hamilton: Allocators shouldn't disqualify managers like Cliff Asness over politics
“What kind of society are we if we, like, shut him out, or somehow think that, you know, we can't invest with him or his team just because of his views? I just, I find that to be completely ridiculous. I mean, obviously, if he laundered money, right, you can't,…”
Insight
Hamilton: Portfolio allocators should be generalists, not asset class specialists
“A lot of people think that you have to specialize now, and I actually think the opposite. How can you pick investments in one part of your portfolio without understanding what's going on in other parts?”
Insight
Hamilton: Portfolio construction must start with governance, not manager selection
“And I have gotten raked over the coals a couple of times because people are like, why would you say that governance is the most important thing? And I'm like, guys, how can you build a portfolio without starting with governance? So it starts with an enterprise…”
Insight
Hamilton: The endowment model only fits institutions with substantial distribution needs
“It's hard to generalize institutions because so many people talk about the endowment model and forget that it really isn't for everybody. There are a lot of institutions that outsourcing it or indexing it is actually a really great option. It's for a specific …”
Insight
Hamilton: Pure deflation-hedging in fixed income destroys capital long term
“20% target to fixed income is all of that pure deflation hedging. It's not, I can tell you, because it would be nearly impossible to build a portfolio like that without destroying capital long term.”
Insight
Hamilton: There is little evidence anyone excels at tactical portfolio positions
“I've seen very little evidence that anybody really is great at these kind of tactical positions.”
Opinion
Hamilton: European Markets Offer More Alpha Than China Due to Complexity
“If you look at Europe, actually, I would argue that there's more alpha there because there's more regulation. There's less transparency. It's very difficult because a lot of times it helps to be part of the culture and to speak the language. And if you could b…”
Opinion
Hamilton: Venture capital is shifting away from Silicon Valley
“There is this sort of shift away from the Valley, and it's not huge yet, so I think still 40 or 45% of deals are there”
Insight
Hamilton: Staying on LPACs impacts energy companies more than divestment
“The way I look at it is if you truly want to make an impact on that industry, why would you leave the table? You have such a louder and more impactful position to a GP of a fund or to a portfolio company As a member of their ELPAC. Because frankly, once you're…”
Opinion
Hamilton: Men avoiding mentoring women post-#MeToo is a major problem
“Men who refuse to mentor women in the wake of Me Too is a big one.”
Opinion
Hamilton: Allocators conduct excessively invasive diligence on female GPs
“Particularly, I've noticed that if it's a female GP or a female head of office, that people will go to this like nth degree to find every single thing out about this person.”
Assertion Supported
Hamilton: Manager marriage hurts fund performance more than divorce
“It's actually funny because one of the rules of thumb is, oh, if somebody's going through a divorce, go ahead and submit your redemption, but in reality, a manager getting married has a worse impact on performance than divorces do”
Disclosure
Children's Health targets a portfolio beta of approximately 0.6
“We don't need to be Yale, so we target a beta of about .6, and from there build a portfolio around it.”
Disclosure
Children's Health prioritizes cash liquidity over beating the S&P 500
“I like the downside protection, and frankly, the goal of our institution's program is not to beat the S&P. It's not to beat some arbitrary benchmark. It is to make sure that we have cash on hand when the institution needs cash.”
Insight
Hamilton: Authentic Fund Manager Edge Is informational Access or Superior Processing
“A lot of people say, oh, it's our team or, oh, it's our culture, which those things are really important, but typically your edge is informational or at least the ones that really stand out. So either you have access to better information or you do something b…”
Insight
Hamilton: Buying and Improving 'Boring' Companies Works Very Well in PE
“I think there's still something to be said for just boring, buy it cheap, create some improvements, and then sell it to somebody with a little bit more money. That's actually worked very well for us.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hamilton: Major energy groups are building legitimate cleantech fund teams
“I mean, there have been a couple of big energy groups that are now doing clean tech funds, which is a thing that I never thought that I would see. At first, I was very skeptical and thought, okay, it was like, again, more greenwashing. But they're actually bui…”
Insight
Hamilton: Operational issues typically sink investment funds rather than strategy
“That it's the operational stuff, the operational due diligence that typically sinks funds, which was a surprise to me.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hamilton: Asset allocation drives 60% to 70% of institutional returns
“Because as we know, what, 60, 70% of our returns is driven by asset allocation.”
Insight
Hamilton: Modern portfolio theory drastically underestimates tail risk
“Modern portfolio theory drastically underestimates risk because it's a normal distribution. In reality, we know that that is not a true thing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hamilton: Few non-university endowments have analytics to pinpoint return drivers
“Because at this point, there aren't many endowments that can do that. I'm sure universities can, but everybody else, it's difficult to get those analytics, even working with a lot of great groups like we do.”
Assertion Supported
Hamilton: CAR-T trial achieved an 83% pediatric leukemia remission rate
“We were involved in the CART T clinical a couple of years back for pediatric leukemia, and in this kind of nationwide CART T clinical, 83% of the kids who had recurring leukemia went into remission. And so before, I mean, fewer than 50% lived a couple of years…”
Disclosure
Children's Health holds more fixed income to back capital project debt
“Being a hospital, one of the things that we kind of go through in the enterprise review is we issue debt for capital projects, so, you know, that's actually really important because these assets back up in a lot of instances the debt issuance, and so we typica…”