AI

also referred to as: ai intelligence · ais · artificial intelligence

256 statements across 139 episodes · 129 bullish · 61 bearish · 68 people on the record · first statement Jul 22, 2022 by David Friedberg · across every show →

Everything said about AI, oldest first

Jul 22, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Current creative jobs will vanish but AI will create unimagined roles
“The roles that those people are in today will absolutely be gone, but they will emerge and evolve into new roles that we never even thought imaginable, that will really transform that industry and society, and this is gonna be true across everywhere that AI to…”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 1:14:10 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Jul 22, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI tools will enable tens of thousands to make high-quality movies
“The number of people that can do that job goes from Steven Spielberg and Bob Zemeckis and a few other people to suddenly thousands or tens of thousands of people around the world making incredible movies.”
David Friedberg Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 1:13:44 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Sep 23, 2022
Insight
Chamath: Game Theory Optimal AI poker strategy can be exploited
“The problem with GTO is that you can actually be very exploitative against somebody that's actually playing perfectly. Because the AI is perfected around what is the rational set of decisions in every spot. And so you can set people up to make a lot of really …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 1:03:41 E97: SPAC updates, public/private market overview, Putin's end game & more
Sep 23, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Online poker sites cannot effectively stop local AI screen-scraping cheats
“And a lot of the poker sites have basically given up. They try to spot the cheating, and it could, because you have this basically layer that's helping you, and it's effectively impossible, because, you know, these things run locally, they're screen scraping l…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 1:05:26 E97: SPAC updates, public/private market overview, Putin's end game & more
Sep 23, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will make competitive human games completely obsolete
“All games maybe become obsolete, because there is no real way to qualify the performance of one human against another when the AI itself or the technology or the computing itself, you know, overshadows human potential and human capability.”
David Friedberg Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 1:05:49 E97: SPAC updates, public/private market overview, Putin's end game & more
Oct 7, 2022 positive
Insight
Friedberg: Humans will transition from creators to narrators in the AI era
“And I think our next transition with AI is to transition from being creators to being narrators.”
David Friedberg Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 46:36 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Oct 7, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: The marginal cost of intelligence is going to go to zero
“So I think what's really important about AI for everybody to understand is the marginal cost of intelligence is going to go to zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 7, 2022 ▶ 42:53 E99: Cheating scandals, Twitter updates, rapid AI advancements, Biden's pardon, Section 230 & more
Feb 11, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will completely rewrite the video game industry
“I think the entire video game industry is going to get completely rewritten with AI because you're not going to have a publisher anymore that makes one game that everyone consumes. You're going to have tools that everyone creates and consumes their own game.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:14:58 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Companies using AI to steal content will be stopped by legal action
“AI's not gonna be stopped, but companies using AI to steal content will be.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:04:22 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts 95% of generic self-help websites will disappear due to AI
“It is more likely than not that many of these quote content publishers that aren't adding very much marginal value are going to go away. That you could see the number of content sites offering self-help advice and how to do this and how to do that. 95% of them…”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:24:04 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will perform 90 to 95 percent of routine tasks better than humans for free
“90 to 95% of the questions are going to be like that, and the AI is going to do an unbelievable job, better than a human, for free, and you're going to learn to trust the AI.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:22:18 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
Feb 24, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will reduce team sizes rather than eliminate jobs completely
“If there's a job reduction, it would be more the case where they've got a team of five accountants, and they go to two or three because now they're just much more productive. I don't think they go to zero.”
David Sacks Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 50:49 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Quora will be the top player in AI going forward
“It's going to be, I think Quora is the number one player in AI going forward.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 1:28:43 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Feb 24, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Most application performance management software can be automated by AI
“Look at some of these enterprise spaces, like take something like APM, right? Like application performance management. That's an entire ecosystem of enterprise companies. It's probably 1015, twenty billion dollars of collective market cap. And I'm just going t…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 44:06 E117: Did Stripe miss its window? Plus: VC market update, AI comes for SaaS, Trump's savvy move
Mar 3, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: 2023-2024 will bring widespread down-rounds for 2021 peak startups
“I think what we're gonna see in the second half of 23 and all of 24 is a lot of medicine being taken, a lot of down rounds, a lot of structure. It's gonna be a tale of two cities. The hot area You know, AI is going to continue to receive new investment, and al…”
David Sacks Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 31:07 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 3, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doug Leone: Investors will overestimate AI in the short term
“We're going to overestimate it in the short term. We're going to invest in everything in the same way that in 1999, we invested in everything.”
Doug Leone Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 8:03 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 3, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: AI is a platform shift equal to or larger than internet and mobile
“I mean, I happen to agree with Doug that this is a platform shift on the same magnitude as the internet or mobile itself. In fact, it may be bigger. Than both of those.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 11:44 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Mar 31, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI will eliminate unit testing and most coding
“Look, I think that AI is going to eliminate unit testing. It has already done. So it's going to eliminate most forms of coding.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 31, 2023 ▶ 1:14:22 E122: Is AI the next great computing platform? ChatGPT vs. Google, containing AGI & RESTRICT Act
Apr 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will autonomously execute complex tasks and manage task lists
“This is really where it's all headed is that you can just tell the AI to do something for you pretty complicated. And it will be able to do it. It will be able to create its own task list and get the job done in quite complicated jobs.”
David Sacks Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 6:09 E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update
Apr 21, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI phase could generate 10 times more value than internet
“I think we're at a point in time right now, where we could see 10 times the value generated in this phase of technology advancement than we saw during the internet, and the advancement of the internet.”
David Friedberg Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 46:16 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 28, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Physical labor will get more expensive while AI deflates knowledge work
“Physical labor will continue to be more expensive. They'll demand more and more money to do the job that they're asked to do. And then knowledge work will become increasingly more deflationary because so much of it will be automated by AI that those folks will…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 23:58 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
May 19, 2023
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Warren Buffett equated AI to nuclear weapons
“Two weeks ago, he equated AI to nuclear weapons, which is an incredibly powerful technology whose genie you can't put back in the bottle, whose 99.9% of use cases are generally quite societally positive, but the .1% of use cases destroys humanity.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 19, 2023 ▶ 25:05 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
Jun 16, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Jason Calacanis notes 80% of LAUNCH startups are actively implementing AI
“Four out of five startups that we've invested in and the majority of them that we're being pitched on right now are not only talking about AI, which they were all talking about it three years ago. They're actually implementing it now because the tool sets are …”
Jason Calacanis Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 33:40 E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Bespoke personal service roles won't be disrupted by AI
“It's a rule that doesn't exist anywhere that will never get disrupted by AI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 9:39 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Sep 26, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: The need for human labor will disappear within 25 years
“20, 25 years from now. I think the need to work will disappear. People will work because they want to work, not because they need to work”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 11:23 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Sep 27, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI is already used in film production for scripting and pre-visualization
“AI is already being integrated into the production pipeline. From creating Python scripts for visual effects workflows, To pre-visualizing the way that you want your film to look like, AI is already dramatically changing the way in which we approach our storie…”
Caleb Ward Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 4:52 All-In Summit: AI film and the generative art revolution with Caleb Ward
Sep 27, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ward: AI will soon be capable of creating emotionally resonant films
“If a guy on a laptop could put this project together in 20 hours, soon AI was going to be capable of creating an emotionally resonant film.”
Caleb Ward Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 4:24 All-In Summit: AI film and the generative art revolution with Caleb Ward
Sep 28, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Jenny Just: Current AI market boom feels dot-com-esque
“It has a dot-com-esque because of AI feel to it, but we have, the Fed maybe is gonna raise a little bit more, but not.”
Jenny Just Sep 28, 2023 ▶ 27:16 All-In Summit: Jenny Just on Peak6, the female market correction, poker, and risk
Sep 29, 2023 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Much of what is happening in AI is underhyped
“I'm kind of getting to the point that I feel that much of what's happening is underhyped rather than overhyped.”
David Friedberg Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 1:14:42 E147: TED goes woke, Canada's Nazi blunder, AI adds vision, plus: who owns OpenAI?
Oct 26, 2023
Insight
Wolfram: Maximizing AI capability requires accepting unexpected behavior
“So we kind of have this trade off. We either can understand what's going to happen, in which case we don't let our AIs really do what they can do, or we always say, okay, we're going to run the risk of the AI doing something unexpected.”
Stephen Wolfram Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 6:35 All-In Summit: Stephen Wolfram on computation, AI, and the nature of the universe
Nov 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: AI could make traditional venture capital roles obsolete
“I think the job of the venture capitalist changes really profoundly. I think there's a reasonable case to make that it doesn't exist. It's more of an automated system of capital against objectives, right?”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 1:36:05 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 17, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Phillips: Rep. Don Beyer went back to college for an AI degree
“Don Beyer is a former US ambassador, Democrat from Virginia. He must be 70. He went back to college, I think Johns Hopkins, and just received or is pursuing his degree in artificial intelligence.”
Dean Phillips Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 1:14:47 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Dec 8, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Foundational AI models will proliferate and cost will fall to zero
“There's going to be a proliferation of foundational models. The cost of those models will go to zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 1:10:29 E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update
Dec 8, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachs: Google's AI market share will never rival its search dominance
“Even if they turn out to be good or great in AI, their AI franchises is never going to be as dominant as their search franchise was in that market.”
David Sacks Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 1:06:15 E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update
Dec 16, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Prompt copyright guardrails are a drag coefficient on AI
“This is just a drag coefficient on development of AI because, and on users, because now you've got to, like, word your prompt exactly the right way.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 32:00 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Dec 23, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI will be 10x to 100x more deflationary for startups than AWS
“The economic impact of AI is so massively deflationary. It may be An order or two orders of magnitude more deflationary Then AWS was, and that was massively accretive to the startup economy.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 1:06:08 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Jan 6, 2024 bearish
Insight
Friedberg argues high-margin SaaS was a temporary era before AI software generation
“The SaaS business model Is really a temporary phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the internet and the development of AI and low cost, low code tools for developing software.”
David Friedberg Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 1:03:47 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Apple will make huge gains in generative AI in 2024
“I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI. The end of the year, maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out. And I think they're not going to. Remain on the sidelines when …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 50:57 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Feb 17, 2024 neutral
Insight
Calacanis: Early-stage startups are shifting equity to top 10% and outsourcing rest
“The trend I'm seeing with startups, like early stage startups, seed stage startups, which are really indicative of what startups will do later on, hiring people, cash basis, paying them hourly outside the United States, not having to worry about stock options,…”
Jason Calacanis Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 59:13 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Feb 23, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: The AI company that successfully makes outputs deterministic will win
“AI at its core is about probabilities. Okay. And so the company that can shrink probabilities into being as deterministic as possible. So where this is the right answer. We'll win.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 1:06:40 E167: Google's Woke AI disaster, Nvidia smashes earnings (again), Groq's LPU breakthrough & more
Mar 1, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will eliminate tier-one support and eat into tier-two roles
“And I think the AI will do a really good job eliminating level one. It'll start to eating to level two, but you're probably going to need humans to deal with the more complex cases.”
David Sacks Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 57:48 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Traditional industries will capture most value from AI
“I don't think it's necessarily new technology companies per se that are going to benefit most, but I think that it's businesses in traditional industries. That are going to be able to leverage these tools, whether they're using open source tools or third party…”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 58:01 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Apr 5, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI productivity gains will create new job classes and raise compensation
“As productivity goes up, which is what AI should give us, just as we've seen in the past, compensation also goes up, which means new job classes will be created.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 52:51 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Apr 9, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vinod Khosla predicts the need to work will disappear in 25 years
“25 years from now. I think the need to work will disappear.”
Vinod Khosla Apr 9, 2024 ▶ 3:26 All-In Summit 2023 Recap
Apr 9, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vinod Khosla: AI will drive abundance, making human meaning our biggest challenge
“AI will cause great abundance, but meaning for human beings will be the largest problem we face.”
Vinod Khosla Apr 9, 2024 ▶ 3:30 All-In Summit 2023 Recap
Apr 9, 2024 negative
Opinion
Stephen Wolfram: AI is very limited within the computational universe
“Yeah, I think AI is sort of, AI is very limited in the computational universe.”
Stephen Wolfram Apr 9, 2024 ▶ 3:55 All-In Summit 2023 Recap
Apr 26, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Chamath predicts AI inference market will be 100x larger than training
“AI is really two markets, training and inference is going to be a hundred times bigger than training.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 20:51 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
May 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Advanced AI will eventually become instantaneous and too cheap to meter
“I don't know, like, when we get to intelligence too cheap to meter and so fast that it feels instantaneous to us and everything else, but I do believe we can get there for, you know, a pretty high level of intelligence, and I, it's important to us, it's clearl…”
Sam Altman May 10, 2024 ▶ 6:46 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 17, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: The 'Facebook of AI' has not been created yet
“I think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized. And then I think the real businesses get built. So I will maintain my perspective here, which is the quote unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 17, 2024 ▶ 21:33 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
May 17, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI will shrink company headcount and operating expenses
“The opex of companies is just going to go down, which means the size of companies are going to shrink, which means the amount of money you need is going to go down. And that's just going to create the ability for these companies to sell those products cheaper.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 17, 2024 ▶ 1:20:14 GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?
Jun 7, 2024 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: AI industry spent $1 trillion to generate under $10 billion revenue
“It is true that we've spent probably seven hundred and fifty billion to a trillion dollars collectively now. On things with the AI label, but it is also true that that's probably generated less than ten billion dollars of revenue.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 20:10 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 20, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump: Leading in AI will require double or triple current US electricity
“They need electricity at levels that nobody's ever experienced before to have, to be successful, to be a leader in AI. The amount of electricity they need is like double what we have right now and even triple what we have right now.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 18:22 In conversation with President Trump
Jun 25, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI will automate formulaic jobs, leaving only human judgment
“So the things that are like known knowns, to use the Donald Rumsfeld quote, will be automated away. Unknown knowns will also be automated away because that's just about computational horsepower. So any job that you did that's formulaic will get replaced probab…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 25, 2024 ▶ 20:46 500K Subscriber Livestream! | All-In Podcast
Jun 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Crypto will become the primary payment method between AI agents
“I think crypto will be the way that AIs pay each other.”
David Sacks Jun 25, 2024 ▶ 52:39 500K Subscriber Livestream! | All-In Podcast
Jun 25, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will enable cost-effective, customized tutors for every child
“Well, I think the way that AI is going to influence education is that you could create highly customized AI tutors. And so I think the revolution could be that every kid can now receive, again, specialized, bespoke, custom education as opposed to being on an a…”
David Sacks Jun 25, 2024 ▶ 19:12 500K Subscriber Livestream! | All-In Podcast
Jul 26, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI automation will lead humans to create new jobs and industries
“And I expect that the same thing will happen with this next evolution of technology and human progress. Humans will find ways to create new things, to push themselves forward, to drive things forward.”
David Friedberg Jul 26, 2024 ▶ 37:51 Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG
Sep 6, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Adyen is the only company with AI in production at scale
“He may be the first, I mean, Adyen, I think, is the first and really only company that's implemented AI in production at scale.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 3:38 "Founder Mode," DOJ alleges Russian podcast op, Kamala flips proposals, Tech loses Section 230?
Sep 10, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI and robotics will drive cost of goods toward zero
“Anything that is a manufactured good or provided service will, I think, with the advent of AI plus robotics, that the cost of goods and services will be, will Trend to zero. Like, I'm not saying it'd be actually zero, but it'll be, everyone will be able to hav…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 39:51 Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024
Insight
Sergey Brin: Rapid base AI progress makes long-term product forecasting difficult
“It's, like, just really hard To, you know, just forecast, like, you know, to think five years out, because, you know, based on the base technical capability of the AI is what enables the applications and then sometimes, you know, somebody will just whip up a l…”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 13:26 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 10, 2024
Insight
Sergey Brin: Moving 90% accurate AI demos to production requires massive effort
“It does it correctly, like, 90% of the time, but am I really, like, is that then worth it if 10% of the time it's gonna make a mistake or taking too long or whatever? And then you have to work, work, work, work, work, work, work to get to perfect all those thi…”
Sergey Brin Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 14:32 Sergey Brin | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 13, 2024 bearish
Disclosure
Thiel: Founders Fund hasn't invested heavily in AI due to dot-com bubble parallels
“My model is AI feels like it does feel uncomfortably close to the bubble of 1999. So I'm, we haven't invested that much in it.”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 41:47 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
Sep 13, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel: AI in 2024 is like the internet in 1999
“I keep thinking that AI in 20, 23, 24 is like the internet in 1999. It's really big, it's going to be very important, it's going to transform the world, not, you know, in six months, but in 20 years,”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 20:09 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
Sep 20, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will replace all Level 1 customer support
“I mean, all the level one customer support is going to get replaced by AI.”
David Sacks Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 17:46 Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Sep 20, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will disrupt sales roles after replacing customer support
“Well, I think sales will be the one that's disrupted after customer support, but I don't know.”
David Sacks Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 19:40 Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala
Oct 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Cuban: Breaking up Google and Meta hurts US AI competitiveness
“The most important thing from a technological perspective in this country today Is that we win AI. That is going to find everything militarily for us and economically for us, and that when you try to break up companies like Google and Facebook, you diminish ou…”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 53:54 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Dec 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will handle software QA, UX, and marketing within 12 months
“And you fast forward 12 months and now you've got the architecture Where the AI can run its own QA testing and debugging and the AI can run its own kind of sales and marketing its own UX of the application and it can run everything.”
David Friedberg Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 1:20:15 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aaron Levie predicts AI will expand software TAM by capturing offline services
“I just don't agree with the TAM compression because I think there's another kind of counter event that's happening that, that AI is, is really going after like services. And so that then conversely expands the TAM software where IT budgets weren't usually appl…”
Aaron Levie Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:11:25 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Insight
Levie: Zuckerberg's open-source strategy suppresses AI pricing for the industry
“Zuck is our counter pressure on the price of AI right now, and I think that he has a way of monetizing AI that is, I mean, Google kind of has a similar thing, but they're, they have a more existential challenge that I think they're actually doing relatively we…”
Aaron Levie Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 45:52 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Dec 25, 2024 positive
Opinion
Levie praises Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross for building top AI portfolio
“Nat and Daniel so Nat Freeman, Daniel Gross, are, they're kind of quietly building probably one of the most powerful AI portfolios that that we're going to see kind of play out.”
Aaron Levie Dec 25, 2024 ▶ 48:29 The All-In Holiday Spectacular
Jan 4, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts artificial intelligence will temporarily amplify global inequality
“So I just think AI is going to really amplify inequality for some period of time.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:07:46 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts AI progress per quarter will exceed yearly progress in 2023-2024
“I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:34:01 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts OpenAI will lose its lead and become fourth-ranked AI player
“My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to for-profit transition and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for .”
Jason Calacanis Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:11:34 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts AI capabilities will trigger a total rewrite of video games
“So I do think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the video game industry with the variety of AI kind of capabilities that are hitting market now.”
David Friedberg Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:41:30 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bannister: AI will cause a product explosion, making seed investing harder
“I actually think we're going to see a Cambrian explosion of creativity and development of different things. And some of them are going to be stupid ideas and some of them are going to be great, but I think it's going to make our job, especially at the seed sta…”
Cyan Banister Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:30:59 LA's Wildfire Disaster, Zuck Flips on Free Speech, Why Trump Wants Greenland
Jan 18, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya: AI will disintermediate middle management before engineers or customer support
“Let me say something that builds on what Pincus was saying, which is, I think that this is a interesting window into the future of AI in the sense that I think what companies are internalizing slowly, that the first place that AI disintermediates is actually m…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:24:49 Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
Jan 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Travis Kalanick expects cheaper AI to paradoxically increase total industry revenue
“When AI gets cheap, you know what's going to happen, guys? There's going to be a lot more AI, right? I don't think, I think the price elasticity on this one is actually positive. So as the price goes down, the revenue usage, everything's going to go up.”
Travis Kalanick Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 45:17 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Feb 7, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: China is close to catching up to the US in AI
“We know that China has basically caught up, or they're very, very close to catching up.”
David Sacks Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 45:03 DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
Feb 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Naval Ravikant: AI job creation will equal or outpace job destruction
“I think we will see job creation by AI that will be as fast or faster than job destruction.”
Naval Ravikant Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 53:16 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Sacks: AI is currently just a better search engine and essay cheat
“We've had AI for two and a half years, and I think it's great, but so far it's a better search engine, and it helps high school kids cheat on their essays.”
David Sacks Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 52:25 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 positive
Opinion
Calacanis: Vice President JD Vance actually understands AI
“We've got a vice president who isn't cuckoo for cocoa puffs and who actually understands what AI is.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 23:55 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Feb 15, 2025 negative
Opinion
Naval: Real threat of AI is centralized control by a small elite
“I'm not scared of AI. I'm scared of what a very small number of people who control AI do to the rest of us for our own good, because that's how it always works.”
Naval Ravikant Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 32:59 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Mar 8, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: AI is already lowering construction costs for our projects
“We're doing construction for much cheaper right now.”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:11:50 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 8, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts AI training and fact-checking will become a $50k-$150k job class
“We're gonna have a new job class, which is people who train AIs, And people who fact check AIs and refine AIs, and this could be a 50 to 150,000 dollar a year job, because every time you make the AI a little better, everybody on the planet gets to benefit from…”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:32:22 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Apr 4, 2025 bullish
Insight
Chamath: Artificial intelligence must anchor any new Bretton Woods financial agreement
“If we try to reconvene a new Bretton Woods, we have to have an anchor asset. So it's a really great question. What is that anchor asset? It has to be AI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:18:06 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 11, 2025 positive
Insight
Chamath: US must secure supply chains for AI, energy, materials, and pharma
“We need to measure and protect four critical areas. Everything else, I think we can deal with some inefficiency, some single points of failure, but the following four areas, Ezra, I would say are Sacrosanct. Number one is all of the technology, both the chips …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 36:07 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 19, 2025 negative
Insight
Dillon: Eliminating gig work via AI destroys the pipeline for new artists
“Some of those, I don't think the entire economy should be the gig economy, but I do think some of those jobs are going to be eliminated by AI are the jobs that allow people to get good at other things while they're doing them. So people that are in entertainme…”
Tim Dillon Apr 19, 2025 ▶ 1:07:38 Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Apr 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg expects AI to drive integration between education and the workplace
“So I do think like as AI kind of takes over education, I do expect that the workplace will change, Tim, and we will start to see more of this integration between education and workplace enabled by this AI driven kind of, you know, development system, which is …”
David Friedberg Apr 19, 2025 ▶ 1:04:42 Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Insight
Elon Musk: AI improvement rate is faster than any prior technology
“The rate of improvement of AI is faster than any technology I've ever seen by far.”
Elon Musk Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 8:33 Inside the All-In Summit: Behind the Scenes of the World's Greatest Conference 🚀
May 9, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Laffont: AI market shifts signify the end of the Magnificent Seven
“To me, it's a little bit like the end of the Mac seven.”
Philippe Laffont May 9, 2025 ▶ 42:51 Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
May 16, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Sundar Pichai compares current quantum computing development to AI in 2015
“I think to me quantum feels like where AI was around, you know, 2015.”
Sundar Pichai May 16, 2025 ▶ 42:20 Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet | The All-In Interview
May 20, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Sergey Brin: AI is the most exciting technology of my lifetime
“Being a computer scientist, it is, you know, the most exciting thing, you know, of my life, just technologically.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 1:53 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 positive
Insight
Brin: Post-training and thinking models are a huge, uncapped step forward
“And more recently, the post-training, especially as the thinking models have come around. And that's been, you know, another huge step up in general in AI. So you know, we don't really know what the ceiling is.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 5:43 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Brin: I rely on AI for math and coding over my skills
“With my skill of math and coding, I feel like I'm better off just turning to the AI now.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 22:24 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 positive
Opinion
Brin claims management is the easiest business function to automate with AI
“Management is like the easiest thing to do with AI.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 22:51 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sergey Brin: AI models can win math and coding contests against top humans
“Like, they, you know, can win, like, math contests and coding contests, things like that against, you know, some top humans.”
Sergey Brin May 20, 2025 ▶ 10:11 Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
May 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Google will make AI search default within a year
“I suspect it'll be done in less than a year. And for a large swath of users, they are going to put AI in the front door. I think that's a fait accompli.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 45:07 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
May 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: AI will automate corporate management and remove human bias
“Management is going to know who in the organization is actually doing work, what work they're doing, and what the result of that work is through AI. That is the future of management, and you take out all bias, All, you know, loyalty, and the AI is going to do …”
Jason Calacanis May 31, 2025 ▶ 43:12 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Every human interaction will eventually feature AI in its substrate
“Every interaction humans have with ourselves and the world around us will have in its substrate AI.”
David Friedberg May 31, 2025 ▶ 45:40 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Sacks: AI will not cause 20% unemployment in two years
“And so I just think this idea that boom, 20% of the workforce is going to be unemployed in two years. I just don't think that it's going to work that way.”
David Sacks May 31, 2025 ▶ 33:56 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will ultimately create far more jobs than it destroys
“So generally speaking, I think that the premise that AI destroys jobs is wrong because it doesn't take into account the significantly higher return on invested capital, which means more capital is going to be deployed, which means actually far more jobs are go…”
David Friedberg May 31, 2025 ▶ 7:10 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Single greatest dystopian AI risk is government control
“I actually think that probably the single greatest dystopian risk Associated with AI is the risk that government uses it to control all of us.”
David Sacks May 31, 2025 ▶ 19:07 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI returns will drive more venture capital into tech startups
“In fact, what I think we're going to see is much more venture capital flowing into new tech startups, much more capital being deployed because the return on the invested capital is so, so, so much higher because of AI.”
David Friedberg May 31, 2025 ▶ 6:59 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
May 31, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Armies of the future will be AI-powered drones and robots
“There's no question that the armies of the future are going to be drones and robots, and they're going to be AI powered.”
David Sacks May 31, 2025 ▶ 49:33 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
Jun 21, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Calacanis predicts Microsoft's headcount will stay flat near 225,000 to 250,000
“I think they'll have just about two 50 plus or -10%. I don't think if I could pick push as the answer, I would pick push, which is they're going to get 10% better every year with AI, 20% more efficient. Therefore, they don't need to add people, but I also don'…”
Jason Calacanis Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 1:31:44 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI economic surplus will likely accrue in the US first
“I mean, if you think about where AI is going to accrue economic surplus first, it's likely going to be in the US, not global GDP.”
David Friedberg Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 7:06 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 28, 2025
Disclosure
Sacks says his government advisory role focuses specifically on AI and crypto
“No, that's Michael Kratzios. I just do my two issues. I've got AI and crypto.”
David Sacks Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 1:05:04 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Jul 4, 2025
Opinion
Friedberg: MAGA and the tech sector cannot succeed without each other
“I don't think MAGA can exist successfully without the tech alignment. I don't think tech can exist without MAGA because of the government alignment and the importance of the government allowing these new technologies like AI to come to market and to proliferat…”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 31:05 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI tutoring could give developing nations free Harvard-equivalent education
“And we could see kids in Africa and kids in South Asia getting the equivalent of a Harvard graduate school degree at a cost of zero through personalized tutoring enabled through AI and the ubiquitous access to knowledge and information.”
David Friedberg Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 1:00:26 Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
Jul 7, 2025 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: MAGA and Silicon Valley tech cannot succeed without alignment
“I don't think MAGA can exist successfully without the tech alignment. I don't think tech can exist without MAGA because of the government alignment and the importance of the government allowing these new technologies like AI to come to market and to proliferat…”
David Friedberg Jul 7, 2025 ▶ 4:23 "What The F Are We Doing?" David Friedberg On BBB’s Deficit Increase & Trump vs. Elon
Jul 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Rabois: Apple missed the AI wave but thrives through vertical integration
“The performance is absolutely miserable on the most important technology through the last 70 years, but the company is still alive and still worth trillions of dollars because it's vertically integrated.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 45:01 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Jul 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Baker: Political involvement is not the best use of Elon Musk's talents
“I think the American party is a great idea. I just don't know that it is the highest and best use of Elon's talents at this moment in time with what's happening with AI. And just, you know, to the extent Elon is a friend of the pod, I just think staying focuse…”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 17:22 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025 positive
Insight
Baker: Software is first sector showing real AI productivity gains
“I think software is the first area where you've seen a real true kind of economic productivity impact.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 24:44 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025
Insight
Baker: Low-cost token production will provide a major competitive advantage in AI
“Being the low-cost producer is really going to matter in AI because at some level, the amount of tokens you produce is intelligence because of test time compute you know, post-training reinforcement learning, and so if you can produce those tokens at a lower c…”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 31:32 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: AI productivity market will reach $1T in revenue and $10T market cap
“I think there's a billion people in the developed world who could spend, let's call it a hundred a month. It's 1200 a year. It doesn't take a genius to figure out this is a trillion dollars in revenue based on market cap. That's probably 10 trillion dollars in…”
Jason Calacanis Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 29:47 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 19, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Baker: AI market impact overwhelms all other macro factors
“I just think the most important thing in the market by far is AI kind of overwhelms everything else.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 4:10 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 23, 2025 positive
What-if
Loeffler: The US would not win back manufacturing without AI
“Without AI, we would not be winning back these industries”
Kelly Loeffler Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:14:48 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Loeffler: Biden administration banned SBA loans for purchasing AI technology
“In fact, with regard to AI, the Biden administration banned the use of SBA based loans for use of purchasing technology and AI.”
Kelly Loeffler Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:18:04 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Loeffler: AI will create millions of software and manufacturing solopreneurs
“We're gonna create millions of solopreneurs who are gonna have massive software companies or manufacturing companies thanks to AI.”
Kelly Loeffler Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:17:25 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nordberg: AI could never replace frontline hospital nursing staff
“AI in the way it's being used here could never replace our frontline staff.”
Julie Nordberg Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 48:12 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Insight
Sankar: AI enhances high-taste individuals rather than replacing workers
“Everyone is afraid of AI replacing the human. That's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing it make the most The person with the greatest taste more valuable and an ability to spread that to the breadth of the organization.”
Shyam Sankar Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 54:34 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: AI is currently a job creation engine, not destroying jobs
“I think what's become apparent to me, and I think is wrong in the press narrative today, is that AI is destroying jobs. I think what we are seeing on the ground is an incredible job creation engine that's underway”
David Friedberg Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 7:05 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rabois: Finding local U.S. manufacturers is now a solved problem via AI
“There's almost always a choice in the United States. It's just people don't know where to find them, and how to negotiate with them, and how to get in touch with them even. And so that's a solved problem now through AI.”
Keith Rabois Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:31:06 Winning the AI Race Part 1: Michael Kratsios, Kelly Loeffler, Shyam Sankar, Chris Power
Jul 23, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Vance: China is the only foreign tech industry competing with US AI
“When you look at their technology industry, I think that's the only tech industry, especially when it comes to things like AI, where they're even sort of knocking on the door of America.”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 10:09 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vance: AI will drive a food revolution yielding more food on less land
“I think it's going to lead to a new food revolution where we can grow a lot more food. On a lot less land.”
JD Vance Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 8:51 Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance
Jul 23, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lisa Su: AI will assist GPU design rather than fully automate it
“I don't necessarily see the AI, you know, designing our next generation GPU. But I do see it helping us design the next generation GPU much faster and more reliably, so.”
Dr. Lisa Su Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 23:14 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Huang: 100% of Nvidia software engineers and chip designers use AI
“Every single software engineer today uses AI, not one left behind. A hundred percent of our chip designers use AI.”
Jensen Huang Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 46:09 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Jul 23, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Workers not using AI will lose jobs to AI users
“If you're not using AI, you're gonna lose your job to somebody who uses AI.”
Jensen Huang Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 47:57 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Jul 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Chris Wright: Natural gas will be the main source of new US electricity for AI
“Natural gas is what's going to power AI. Let's just be honest. What's going to be the main source of new electricity in the United States by far and away? Natural gas.”
Chris Wright Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 26:14 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Jul 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bessent: AI boom highly likely to spur non-inflationary economic growth
“With AI that we can go back to the paradigm When I was younger, in the nineties, Alan Greenspan was able to run the economy very hot in the nineties, and because, you know, it was the IT boom, and we had this very powerful non-inflationary growth, and I think …”
Scott Bessent Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:36 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Jul 24, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump: The U.S. leads China substantially in AI
“Right now we're leading China very substantially in AI, very, very substantially,”
Donald J. Trump Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 20:50 Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan
Aug 1, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI outputs reproducing copyrighted material violate copyright law
“If AI outputs text, or outputs audio, or outputs video that contains copyright material, it is a hundred percent in violation of copyright.”
David Friedberg Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 36:03 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 positive
Insight
Friedberg: AI training on public web data is analogous to human learning
“If the AI is learning, it is understanding patterns, it is understanding reasoning, it is understanding concepts by reading copyright material, just like humans do. A writer, an author, reads a bunch of fiction, learns good techniques, learns good concepts, le…”
David Friedberg Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 36:15 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 positive
Opinion
Friedberg: Non-public content used for AI training must be licensed
“You're a hundred percent correct. That should be paid for or licensed.”
David Friedberg Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 36:44 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 1, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: AI power shortages will force federal government into energy deals
“In the absence of power, I think AI is, is not going to be the thing that we think it can be. So that's going to create an enormous amount of appetite by the federal government to do deals and get players on the field.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 14:56 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 9, 2025
Opinion
Shapiro: The US-China AI race is existential for America
“Well, as you might imagine, I'm definitely in the existential race category.”
Ben Shapiro Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 28:00 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts AI will restock startup opportunities and boost venture returns
“My guess is that we're in a pretty good time for VC because of AI and the disruption is causing. And the potential for value creation it's creating. It's sort of restocking the pond with opportunities for many more big companies to be created. And I think ulti…”
David Sacks Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:25:05 AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?
Aug 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will mirror dot-com cycle with massive long-term value
“The dot-com boom was a, became a bubble that burst, but the ultimate promise of the internet was realized many orders of magnitude greater than I think, you know, most folks declared and proclaimed at the time. It was just delayed by a few years. I think it's …”
David Friedberg Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 21:35 AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
Aug 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: AI makes sales development reps 10 times more effective
“We're seeing on the field that maybe the salespeople aren't being replaced by AI, but the SDRs are becoming 10 times, like literally 10 times more effective at finding the next lead. At organizing leads and targets.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 26:23 AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
Aug 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI sector will undergo a sorting and consolidation cycle
“And I suspect we're about to go through that same cycle in AI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 12:38 AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
Sep 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paul: AI impact is overstated and we are overbuilding data centers
“I think it's overstated that how great AI is going to be. I think it's going to be a lot of cool things, and I think some people are going to get caught. We're going to have too many data centers at one point, and I don't care how much electricity they're suck…”
Rand Paul Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 43:59 Senator Rand Paul: Tariffs, Debt, China, and a Warning for America
Sep 5, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: AI adoption will increase return on capital, hiring, and pay
“AI, like any other technology prior, provides leverage on human time, and therefore leverage on human capital. And when you get a higher ROI on capital, you generally have more capital flow in, not less. So people will invest more in people. They will pay more…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 45:20 Senator Rand Paul: Tariffs, Debt, China, and a Warning for America
Sep 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI will probably be smarter than all humans combined by 2030
“And then probably within five, like say, 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 31:22 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: AI could be smarter than any individual human by 2026
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 31:12 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
Sep 12, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hassabis: Present-day AI lacks true creativity to formulate new theories
“AI today, I would say doesn't have true creativity in the sense that it can't come up with a new conjecture yet or a new hypothesis. It can maybe prove something that you give it but it's not able to come up with a sort of new idea or new theory itself.”
Demis Hassabis Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 16:08 Inside Google DeepMind: AGI, Robotics, & World Models Explained - Demis Hassabis
Sep 15, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: AI productivity gains will cause significant labor force disruption
“I don't think you're gonna get there without some significant labor force disruption.”
Vlad Tenev Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 14:18 Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on tokenizing stocks, expanding access to private shares, fintech's future
Sep 16, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Teachers unions will fight tooth and nail against AI adoption
“And I predict that the teachers unions are going to fight tooth and nail from seeing AI show up, and it's going to challenge our ability to kind of provide this advantage for our students.”
David Friedberg Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 27:46 The College Crisis: Heads of Dartmouth & Berkeley Debate the Decline of US Universities
Sep 16, 2025
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Lyons: AI will eliminate more non-union than union jobs over 10 years
“In fact, I think a lot more unrepresented jobs are going to disappear as a result of AI than represented jobs over the next 10 years.”
Rich Lyons Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 28:52 The College Crisis: Heads of Dartmouth & Berkeley Debate the Decline of US Universities
Sep 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yakovenko: Quantum computing will match AI in wealth creation if realized
“For the general public, quantum computing is such a massive unlock in terms of how much we can process that it's going to be as big of a wealth creator if we pull it off as AI.”
Anatoly Yakovenko Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 17:07 Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko on Crypto's Next Era: Quantum, AI, and the Future of Money
Sep 29, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Ricks: Chinese entities use AI to reverse-engineer and hack chemical patents
“China's getting very good at patent hacking. So what they do is they look at that chemical structure. They work backwards, sometimes driven by AI. Algorithms define chemical structures that will behave similarly, but are outside the patent scope, and they go f…”
Dave Ricks Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 15:12 Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing
Sep 30, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Haas: Arm is hiring fewer finance and legal workers due to AI
“Our business is not one yet where I can say I'm hiring less people because of AI. I'm certainly hiring less finance people and legal people.”
Rene Haas Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 23:08 Arm CEO Rene Haas on AI: Nvidia Lessons, Intel’s Decline and the US-China Chip War
Oct 3, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will proliferate as a decentralized consumer product, not nuclear weapons
“Every consumer, every business is going to want to run AI. A lot of them are going to want to run it on their own infrastructure. Consumers are going to want to run it on their own phone. You're going to have an AI that's highly personalized to you. And so eve…”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 1:03:46 Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
Oct 3, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will accrue far more value to gaming than social or traditional media
“And I think that one way to kind of think about this thesis is that AI is gonna ultimately accrue to video game entertainment far more than social media entertainment or traditional content.”
David Friedberg Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 7:45 Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
Oct 8, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Joe Tsai: AI adoption among Chinese firms rose from 8% to near 50%
“I've seen a survey of Chinese firms last year, only eight percent have Are using AI. We're using AI in their business. Now that number is approaching half. 50%.”
Joe Tsai Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 19:02 Alibaba's Joe Tsai on US-China Rivalry, AI Future, Owning the Nets/Liberty, Caitlin Clark's Impact
Oct 8, 2025 neutral
Insight
Joe Tsai: AI model development is not a winner-take-all field
“So I don't think AI is a winner take all field.”
Joe Tsai Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 17:27 Alibaba's Joe Tsai on US-China Rivalry, AI Future, Owning the Nets/Liberty, Caitlin Clark's Impact
Oct 9, 2025
Disclosure
Botha: Sequoia uses AI to summarize business plans and analyze competitors
“If we get business plan submissions, we have an AI system that'll summarize it for me, so I get a very quick read on the company, a quick summarization of the quality of the Team and a very quick analysis of the competitive dynamics and the other companies I s…”
Roelof Botha Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 8:47 Sequoia’s Roelof Botha: Why Venture Capital is Broken & How Great Companies Are Built
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI accounts for 40% of 2025 US GDP growth and 80% of stock gains
“40% of US GDP growth this year is AI. And AI companies have accounted for 80% of the gain in US stocks this year.”
David Sacks Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:13:53 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Unregulated AI will drive 4% to 5% US GDP growth for years
“If we just allow it to happen, if we allow the innovators to do what they do best, I think this is going to drive four or five percent GDP growth for the next few years.”
David Sacks Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:14:34 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Oct 14, 2025 positive
Opinion
Wood: Healthcare is the most profound long-term application for artificial intelligence
“While the autonomous mobility space might be the biggest revenue generator in the short term, we believe that the most profound application of AI is in healthcare.”
Cathie Wood Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 5:32 Cathie Wood on How AI Can Double GDP, Bull Case for Bitcoin $1M, Elon’s Trillion-Dollar Pay Package
Oct 15, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bravo: AI poses a major disruption risk to many software verticals
“There is a big risk of AI in this business. I mean, in a big, big way. There's so many verticals that are going to get disrupted.”
Orlando Bravo Oct 15, 2025 ▶ 13:43 Inside Orlando Bravo’s Private Equity Playbook: How to Build a Top Firm
Oct 16, 2025 negative
Opinion
Palihapitiya: AI is currently in a novelty slopware phase
“Right now, I think we're still in the novelty slopware phase of AI, where most of it is about speed, and you know, you're spending a lot of money to try to get crappy outcomes out faster.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 34:38 1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
Oct 18, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: AI accounted for 40% of Q2 US GDP growth
“We just came off a quarter of 3.8% economic growth Of which, 40% was attributable to AI.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 59:47 Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
Nov 7, 2025
Assertion Supported
White-collar employment share has not dropped due to AI, Sacks notes
“If it were true, That we were seeing massive AI job loss. You would see the percent of white collar jobs dropping in the economy. That has not happened.”
David Sacks Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 54:57 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Nov 7, 2025 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Sacks: There will be no federal bailout for AI
“There's not going to be a federal bailout for AI. Not going to happen.”
David Sacks Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 10:56 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Dec 13, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Calacanis: AI will eliminate millions of entry-level jobs within five years
“We will have massive job displacement. Destruction, whatever term you prefer in entry level jobs already happening in, you know, what I'll call chores like dishes and driving cars, entry level jobs. Those are going away and they're going to go away in the mill…”
Jason Calacanis Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 57:20 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks claims AI generated half of US GDP growth this year
“AI has been responsible for about half of GDP growth this year.”
David Sacks Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:16:23 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts superintelligent AI will reorder global geopolitics into three tiers
“So, let's say in a world in 10 years where you have these super intelligent computers and systems and models, okay? In my thinking, what that does is it reorders the geopolitics of all countries in the world where you're in one of three buckets. In bucket numb…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 51:29 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 positive
Opinion
Chamath says rebranding AI as 'American Intelligence' is brilliant positioning
“Calling AI American intelligence is actually the smartest and best one could do around AI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 3:48 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts US youth unemployment will reach 14% due to AI
“Nine percent in January, now 10 and a half percent. I think this chart's going right up to 14%, just my prediction, and I think it's because of AI.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:20:06 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: President Trump will soon issue an executive order on AI
“In China, they're proposing, and Saxon President Trump, the amazing President Trump, will be doing an AI national edict soon, I believe, or an executive order.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 54:30 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts AI will not cause mass unemployment requiring Universal Basic Income
“Where I disagree with my friends on the right is I just don't think that's what's going to happen. I mean, I could be wrong, but I just don't think that's what's happening. It hasn't happened yet. I don't think that's what's going to happen.”
David Sacks Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:21:34 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 13, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks asserts AI accounts for under five percent of US layoffs
“And if you look at the year to date in the Challenger Gray report, AI has only accounted for 4.7% of total layoffs.”
David Sacks Dec 13, 2025 ▶ 1:15:31 Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
Dec 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Politicians use AI fears to breed voter compliance and control
“AI is the new lightning rod. For fear and for divisiveness that ultimately breeds compliance and control, which is where these politicians are trying to drive the populace and the voting conditions in the United States.”
David Friedberg Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 8:19 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Nvidia is the only company capturing massive AI value so far
“There isn't an aggregation at this stage of value creation with the exception of Nvidia, which has really got this three trillion dollar market cap creation that's happened in the last couple of years.”
David Friedberg Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 7:37 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Vanguard study shows higher job and wage growth in AI roles
“There's a new study from Vanguard where they analyze job growth and wage growth in occupations that are highly exposed to AI automation versus all occupations. And they find that both job growth and wage growth is higher, not lower in the occupations that are …”
David Sacks Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 15:28 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Dec 19, 2025 bearish
Insight
Friedberg: China's lithography push aims for global AI and economic primacy
“China is not just in a catch-up race, they're in a primacy race, and they are trying to develop primacy and lithography technology, which will give them primacy in manufacturing, Which will give them primacy in AI, which will give them economic leverage over t…”
David Friedberg Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 1:12:06 Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
Jan 10, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it
“AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it.”
David Sacks Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 58:27 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Young white-collar workers will be 2026's biggest business losers
“And I went with Young white collar workers in America. I think they're going to be the biggest business loser. I think it's getting really hard for them to get entry level jobs. I'm seeing that all over the place because companies are having an easier job just…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 45:28 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 14, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Taneja: AI will enable Theranos-style single-drop blood diagnostics within 10 years
“I think it's very likely because the challenge with this is how can you actually manufacture Those nano devices where you can take really low volumes and be accurate and measure these things. Technology wasn't there. So when you're going back to our hardware m…”
Hemant Taneja Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 43:39 Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026
Jan 14, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taneja: Offshore call center assets will decline due to AI displacement
“So if you're a call center in an emerging country today, There's a declining asset value because you know it's going to be displaced with AI.”
Hemant Taneja Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 12:35 Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026
Jan 14, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: AI's societal impact will dwarf PC, internet, and mobile revolutions
“I think everything we've seen over the last 30 years of technology, from the PC revolution, To cloud computing, to the internet, mobile, all of that is going to be dwarfed in comparison to the impact that AI is going to have on society.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 1:01 Why AI will dwarf every tech revolution before it: robots, manufacturing, AR glasses from CES 2026
Jan 15, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Makary: FDA will use AI to cut application reviews to one day
“It took, and you know, some often still takes, 60 days just for the FDA to tell you that your application is complete. We're going to get that down to one day. We're going to use AI.”
Dr. Marty Makary Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 11:12 Supercharging a New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients
Jan 21, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nadella: Enterprise AI ROI initially comes from customer service, supply chain, HR
“Top-down is if I look at the ROI of applying AI in customer service or in supply chain, or in HR self-service, those are the easy projects where IT and CXOs can make calls, and that's where you're seeing the first drop of real AI adoption.”
Satya Nadella Jan 21, 2026 ▶ 26:47 Satya Nadella on AI’s Business Revolution: What Happens to SaaS, OpenAI, and Microsoft?
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kratsios: AI could help double US research and development output by 2036
“So that's kind of the dream that I have, that ultimately we as a country can almost double our R and D output over the next 10 years because of AI.”
Michael Kratsios Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 17:16 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Stanford poll shows 83% AI optimism in China, 39% in US
“In China, AI optimism was 83%. So 83% of the population feels that it's going to be more beneficial than harmful. That number of the United States is only 39%.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 25:09 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts AI will increase wages rather than cause mass unemployment
“I think we are heading toward towards a world of much greater abundance, rising living standards for everybody, greater productivity. I think that will lead to rising wages. I don't think it's going to put everyone out of work.”
David Sacks Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 47:00 Inside America’s AI Strategy: Infrastructure, Regulation, and Global Competition
Jan 23, 2026 neutral
Insight
Loosararian: Data Gaps Limit AI ROI in Heavy Industry
“A lot of it comes down to this really interesting gap that exists in AI, which is like all the information and data set that you need to actually turn all of this into actual return on investment and productivity gains, especially for these, like, large infras…”
Jake Loosararian Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 1:20:46 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Very few enterprises have meaningfully adopted AI workflows yet
“I think we are still really early in the demand for AI compute, and I think if you think about, you know, what portion of enterprises have really adopted AI in a meaningful way that has changed their workflow, it's tiny.”
Andrew Feldman Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 1:00:34 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: AI job displacement will lead to net economic abundance
“I basically, I think if the AI plays out as we all think it will with robots and a lot of, there will be job displacement, but it means that we'll be in a world of more abundance and people are going to have jobs that there's like, they're streaming on video g…”
Brian Armstrong Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 34:43 Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
Jan 24, 2026 bullish
Insight
Sacks: AI eliminates the need for structured healthcare APIs
“So you don't need like a perfect API anymore. You just get the unstructured data, dump it in, and now it just works.”
David Sacks Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 23:07 Dr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos
Jan 25, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire: AI and blockchain credit models can increase money velocity
“I think these kinds of credit intermediation models powered by AI and blockchain networks can actually further increase money velocity.”
Jeremy Allaire Jan 25, 2026 ▶ 44:10 The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
Jan 25, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allaire predicts AI will drive extraordinary GDP growth over next 15 years
“I think we're going to see an acceleration of GDP growth. Pick, pick your time frame. Three, five, 10, 15 years. Like, we're gonna see, I think, an extraordinary period of economic growth acceleration.”
Jeremy Allaire Jan 25, 2026 ▶ 46:23 The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
Jan 31, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Combining next-gen silicon with open source will cut AI costs 90%
“If you take these next generation systems and you marry them to open source, you're going to cut the cost of AI by 90%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 1:01:34 ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
Feb 7, 2026
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Only 7% of January 2026 corporate layoffs were tied to AI
“There about a 100,000 layoffs in January. Now, roughly half of those, I think were localized to UPS, which was severing its deal with Amazon. And then Amazon was basically making a bunch of efficiency cuts. Only seven percent were related to AI.”
David Sacks Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 54:24 Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Feb 10, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
CZ: A single free app can deliver all necessary educational content using AI
“I believe that we have enough technology with, you know, gaming, understanding of human psychology with AI. A single app can deliver all the education content you need. And we can do that for free.”
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 1:41:33 Binance CEO: 4 Months in Prison, $4 Billion Fine, and What Comes Next
Feb 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts AI will increase demand for knowledge workers
“As you may recall on the prediction show for this year, my most contrarian belief is that AI would increase demand for knowledge workers, not put them out of business.”
David Sacks Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 1:10 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
Feb 28, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will not eliminate Salesforce but could limit growth
“What if it doesn't eliminate, I don't think AI is going to get rid of Salesforce, but it could eat into their growth opportunity.”
David Sacks Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 13:34 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Feb 28, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Knowledge work may be a transitory phenomenon before AI
“It may be the case that knowledge work in general is also a transitory phenomenon that only existed between the foundation of the computer or computing tools and the existence of AI, generally speaking.”
David Friedberg Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 16:36 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Mar 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ray Dalio warns AI might eat itself by failing to generate profits
“It looks to me like AI basically is eating everything and it might eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.”
Ray Dalio Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 43:37 Ray Dalio: "AI Is Eating Everything - and It Might Eat Itself"
Mar 6, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Future sophisticated drone warfare will feature AI-controlled swarms
“I mean, it's, I believe that a sophisticated drone war is going to be drone swarms controlled by AI to some degree or another, right?”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 20:54 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Mar 13, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Karp: AI will shift economic power from humanities graduates to blue-collar workers
“This technology disrupts humanities trained, largely democratic voters and makes their economic power less, and increases the power, economic power of vocationally trained, working class, often male voters,”
Alex Karp Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 48:50 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: ICE currently commands higher public popularity than AI
“ICE is more popular than AI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 52:03 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: No corporate enterprise shows sustained positive margin expansion from AI
“There's not a single good example that we can find of sustained positive margin expansion and impact of AI inside of a true corporate enterprise that is not right now a small test.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 32:18 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI intelligence will be sold like a metered utility
“Fundamentally, our business, and I think the business of every other model provider, is gonna look like selling tokens, but we see a future where intelligence is a utility, like electricity or water, and people buy it from us. On a meter and use it for whateve…”
Sam Altman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 50:13 Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
Mar 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: AI recently ranked as most unfavorable term on survey list
“AI recently ranked as the most unfavorable term of a list of terms, including President Trump.”
David Friedberg Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 1:00:00 Two Legendary Founders: Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas
Mar 19, 2026 negative
Opinion
Jensen Huang: Top US AI security risk is slow domestic adoption
“Our greatest source of national security concern with respect to AI is that other countries adopt this technology while we are so angry at it or afraid of it or somehow paranoid of it that Our industries, our society don't take advantage of AI.”
Jensen Huang Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 17:59 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
Mar 23, 2026
Insight
Srinivas: AI is replacing traditional operating systems with objective-driven computing
“AI is the operating system. Like earlier in the traditional operating system, you execute programmatically. Now you start with objectives, not specific instructions.”
Aravind Srinivas Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 42:03 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Insight
Michael Intrator: AI inference represents the monetization of AI investment
“I always think of inference as the monetization of the investment in artificial intelligence.”
Michael Intrator Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 8:36 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
Mar 27, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will enable complex businesses to achieve 10x productivity
“And it's going to expand the work productivity of that organization, not just create new features, which is what we focus on when we talk about software companies, but really imagine a complex business being able to do 10 times the output it can do today with …”
David Friedberg Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 34:46 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Apr 17, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Public sentiment toward AI is growing increasingly negative
“The American population is incrementally getting more and more negative on the whole subject matter writ large.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 40:55 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
May 8, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: AI accounted for 75% of Q1 GDP growth
“It's 75% of GDP growth in Q-one.”
David Sacks May 8, 2026 ▶ 56:55 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: AI ranks 29th out of 39 issues in voter importance
“And AI ranked 29 out of 39.”
David Sacks May 8, 2026 ▶ 56:31 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 8, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: No evidence AI has lifted S&P 500 operating margins
“There is literally not a scintilla of evidence that AI has helped lift the operating margins of the S&P.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 8, 2026 ▶ 1:08:32 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
May 12, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Charles Koch: Koch Industries backs Cosmos to advance market-based AI
“I mean, that's why we back Cosmos, who is doing, backing people who do AI based on these principles of market-based management, based on these principles of human progress.”
Charles Koch May 12, 2026 ▶ 1:28:41 How We Grew Koch Industries to $150 Billion Without Going Public: Charles & Chase Koch
May 15, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benioff: Multi-sensory models represent the next major wave of AI
“So I would say that multi-sensory models are the next big wave for AI”
Marc Benioff May 15, 2026 ▶ 59:18 Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
May 22, 2026 neutral
Insight
Sankar: Public dialogue should focus on frontline AI users, not AI inventors
“We're listening too much to the inventors of AI. I know that's appealing. They're geniuses. They're smart. We need to be listening to the frontline factory workers who are using AI saying, wow, I was able to add a third shift. I was able to hire more workers. …”
Shyam Sankar May 22, 2026 ▶ 41:01 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 negative
Insight
Friedberg: Slowing US AI development risks disrupting global geopolitical balance
“If we do try and slow down AI, we kind of lose this moment of balance that's necessary when you have a technology proliferation, like we saw with the arms race after World War II, that, you know, we're gonna see again here.”
David Friedberg May 22, 2026 ▶ 24:57 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 29, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Government poses the primary threat of Orwellian AI power centralization
“Well, I very much agree with the Pope that the biggest risk of AI is a centralization of power, and then it's misuse against us in some Orwellian way. I think it's government that's gonna do that.”
David Sacks May 29, 2026 ▶ 20:07 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
May 29, 2026 positive
Insight
Sacks: AI must be decentralized to avoid dependency on monopoly providers
“If AI is this very powerful technology, I think it needs to be decentralized so that all of us can protect ourselves to some degree, right? We need to be able to run, we need to be able to run the AI ourselves on our own hardware if we so choose, so we're not …”
David Sacks May 29, 2026 ▶ 37:38 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
May 29, 2026 positive
Insight
Gurley: The best protection against AI is becoming AI-enabled
“I think the best way to protect yourself from AI is to be the most AI enabled version of yourself you can be.”
Bill Gurley May 29, 2026 ▶ 6:56 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
May 29, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI will not wipe out all jobs due to human oversight needs
“This is why people think, oh, this is going to wipe out all the jobs. No, someone still has to supervise, iterate, validate, you know, all those kinds of things.”
David Sacks May 29, 2026 ▶ 15:26 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
May 29, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Early advantage in using AI will persist long term
“And I think that, I don't think it goes away because I think you learn how to get better at it over time. So having an early advantage, I think will extend for a while because you can learn more, more and more things you can accomplish.”
Bill Gurley May 29, 2026 ▶ 14:18 Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
Jun 8, 2026 positive
Insight
Arora: AI enables 90% output consistency across Palo Alto's marketing team
“There's this notion, which we talked about briefly last time, that AI is really democratizing intelligence. What that means is I have 250 people in marketing that produce varied forms of output. Now I can get 90% of the output to be consistent across those 250…”
Nikesh Arora Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 1:42 Palo Alto Networks CEO: "AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks"
Jun 8, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Arora: AI is driving record tech headcount at Palo Alto Networks
“I think we're gonna have more people at Palo Alto on the technology side than we've ever had before, because I think AI is causing everything to ask for a transformation.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 30:51 Palo Alto Networks CEO: "AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks"
Jun 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will evolve from Atari to PlayStation 10 in five years
“I think we're at the Atari command line stage of AI, and we're going to get to the, you know, PlayStation 10 stage in the next five years.”
Bill Maris Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 20:52 Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage
Jun 9, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google forbade using the term 'AI' for years after GV launched
“At that time, Google would not let us use the term AI. And this persisted for many years.”
Bill Maris Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 6:54 Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage
Jun 10, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fetterman: Opposition to US AI progress is funded by CCP-aligned groups
“A lot of the people that oppose that, now a lot of that opposition is funded by a lot of these groups that are aligned with CCP.”
John Fetterman Jun 10, 2026 ▶ 19:05 Senators John Fetterman and Dave McCormick: Bipartisanship, Money in DC, Datacenters, Graham Platner
Jun 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI job destruction narrative is false; AI will cause a boom
“The idea that AI is going to destroy jobs is a Luddite idea that is being disproven every single day, and I see it on the ground. It is only a matter of time before people wake up to this, and they realize that this narrative that they've all been sold is a cr…”
David Friedberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 47:34 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: AI will be the defining issue in upcoming elections
“AI is, I think, going to be the defining political issue of the midterms, and for sure the next presidential election.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 17:34 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Jul 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Society will pay a premium for human involvement within 18 months
“Human in the loop will be the premium, and we will all realize in the next year and a half, the importance of human in the loop, even in the context of AI and automation working, human in the loop is going to be more valuable, and then you're going to pay a pr…”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 45:20 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Claims of AI job destruction are an absolute scam
“There is no job loss with AI. It is an absolute scam to tell the world that AI is taking away jobs and destroying jobs and the world is shifting. It is clunky. It is valuable. It is going to take some time and it is going to create far more jobs than it is des…”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 36:04 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 3, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: AI will eliminate customer service, BPO, and cab driving jobs
“Customer service jobs are going to go away because consumers prefer to talk to the AI and it's perfect at that. Entry level jobs around data entry, around business process outsourcing, those are going to go away. So will driving cabs.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 37:29 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Jul 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Cuban: AI will not eliminate 50% of white-collar jobs
“But AI is not going to, you know, take away 50% of the jobs. There's just so much it can't do that regular people need it to do.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 11:08 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 21, 2026 positive
Insight
Cuban: Disruptive AI companies will not need to be enormous
“If AI does what we know it will do, the companies that are disruptive don't have to be enormous companies.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 6:17 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 21, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cuban: Enterprise AI is much harder to implement than expected
“So AI is a lot harder to implement than anybody expected. For sure.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 8:16 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 21, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mark Cuban: AI will impact healthcare but won't replace doctors
“For health, it's going to make a huge difference, but it's not going to replace doctors.”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 22:27 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 21, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cuban: AI interfaces will move beyond text and pictures within a decade
“Nothing's going to be texting pictures in 10 years, right?”
Mark Cuban Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 19:23 Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
Jul 24, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Friedberg: Google is the best public market stock for betting on AI
“So if you want to bet an AI, I think the best public market stock to own is Google.”
David Friedberg Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 1:14:43 The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: True consciousness requires physical sensing and a survival drive
“But I do think there's something fundamental to consciousness That relates to the drive for survival in a physical sense. You have to have physical sensing and physical responsiveness to learn.”
David Friedberg Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 1:32:06 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Aug 5, 2026 positive
Opinion
Mavrucas: Military AI drives scale and efficiency, not war-making decisions
“Artificial intelligence actually just gives the military the opportunity to, one, operate at a greater scale and then operate more efficiently. These aren't robots actually just making decisions on when to go to war or not.”
Dino Mavrucas Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 33:22 China Outbuilds America 230-to-1. Saronic Has a Plan
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Gerstner: Software companies cannot keep top talent from fleeing to AI
“It's almost impossible for a software company today to keep any decent sales people to keep any different, decent product development people, because they all want to go work on AI.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 55:01 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Insight
Sacks: AI makes software maintenance easy without institutional code knowledge
“I think maintenance mode becomes way easier with AI because you don't need the historical knowledge anymore. The AI can go in and sort of reconstitute that, that historical knowledge.”
David Sacks Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 55:52 Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
Aug 13, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: A global compute governance agreement with China will never happen
“These EA types thought they're gonna institute global compute governance. Somehow they're gonna get, like, Some global agreement with China. Total pipe dream. Never going to happen. If we slow down, China is just going to race ahead.”
David Sacks Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 53:33 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Capitalism Will Always Value Human Intelligence Over AI
“Capitalism, there, it's, there's gonna be a use for the most computationally efficient intelligences on planet Earth, and those are human intelligences.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 54:55 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 24, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Kratsios: AI will be the biggest unlock for science in history
“We fundamentally believe that AI is going to be the biggest unlock to scientific discovery in the history of the world. Whether you're in material science, whether you're in chemistry, whether you're in math, whether you're in physics, you know, applying AI to…”
Michael Kratsios Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 24:28 Inside Trump's Science Agenda: Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China w/ Michael Kratsios
Aug 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sacks: AI optimism exceeds 80% in China versus 30% in US
“AI optimism in China is over 80%, meaning they pull on the question, do you think AI will be more beneficial and harmful? Over 80% of Chinese people say yes. In the US, that number is in like 30%.”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 5:00 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Aug 29, 2026
Disclosure
Sacks: I use AI to line-edit and fact-check all my publications
“This is a standing disclosure for all future publications that I put out, including tweets, is that I try not to publish anything Without running it through AI first to fact check it, to line edit it, and to help me make the best argument I can. So this is a s…”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 1:08:04 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Aug 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Sacks: AI Knowledge Worker Mass Job Loss Narrative Is Flawed
“And by the way, I think the job loss narrative is another one of those simplistic extrapolations. What is the job loss narrative is. Now AI can do knowledge work. Therefore, knowledge workers are all going to lose their jobs. It completely ignores the fact tha…”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 27:21 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Aug 29, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Domestic pessimism is America's biggest risk in US-China AI race
“So I've been saying for a while that the US is ahead of China in every category except one, which is optimism. And that is the biggest risk to us winning this AI race against China is doing something that will shoot ourselves in the foot because we're so pessi…”
David Sacks Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 5:12 Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Sep 4, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: School AI bans will trap progressive city students in poverty
“And I think what it will do is it is a self-imposed form of modern segregation. And it is going to completely push an entire generation of kids in these cities that are subject to these rules into poverty, and it will keep them there. And so in as much, I thin…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 1:08:33 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: AI will deliver personalized learning and disrupt traditional classroom education
“And this is my kind of common sense belief, not rooted in some study that AI ultimately will lead to a much more kind of personalized system of education for students. And that is deeply disruptive and deeply threatening to the traditionalist systems of educat…”
David Friedberg Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 1:03:10 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
Sep 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sacks rejects 2030 AI extinction warnings as familiar 'doomer histrionics'
“No, I don't. And look, there's nothing new here. This is the same doomer histrionics that we've been hearing from this crowd for a long time.”
David Sacks Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 2:55 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Friedberg: AI is a leverage tool, not an incomprehensible super-intelligence
“AI is a tool of leverage. For humans. AI is not some magical genius super god that sits above us that understands things we don't understand. Every piece of the open AI message set that went back and forth between these agents is documented, can be read by peo…”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:00:47 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Open-source AI drops the cost of AI by 50x
“Because open source is what drops the cost of AI by 50 X and makes it available to everyone so everyone can benefit from AI and no one gets rich.”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 23:38 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Sacks: Only AI-powered cyber defense can defeat AI cyberattacks
“The only way to solve AI cyber attacks is with AI powered cyber defense. We all know that.”
David Sacks Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 30:44 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 neutral
Insight
Friedberg: AI adds little productivity if humans remain in the loop
“AI can do these amazing things. But if you need a human to do something as part of the process, AI doesn't really do that much for you.”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 38:43 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
Sep 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: OpenAI's math solution equaled tens of thousands of human work years
“What happened was the AI just did a bunch of brute force work to come up with this answer. And the work was done across many, many computers. 10,000 agents just means 10,000 applications running on a computer, talking back and forth to one another, sharing inf…”
David Friedberg Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:00:01 AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
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