The Ledger, every show

“Yeah, look, I don't want to get into exact numbers, but even with the windsurf deal aside, like not including that at all, we are basically, we've done roughly that as well in the last six to eight months.”

“I think by the end of this year, we expect it to be more than half.”

“And so if anything, I think there's going to be, I think there's going to be way more product, way more programmers and way more engineers, you know, a few years from now than there are today.”

“I think if anything, there's going to be more engineers, not less and I'll kind of give two reasons why. I think the first is there's just so much demand for engineering out there and so much demand, honestly, even in ways that we don't always think about, rig…”

“The rough answer for, you know, two, three years from now is roughly every software engineer in the world, and probably a lot more than all the Just the software engineers because I think a lot more people will be able to produce code and produce products and …”

“I really don't think that there are, like, intelligence problems that AI will not solve in the long term. I just don't think of that as, like, it's gonna be all over in six months.”

“Like single use software is going to exist. Like self-driving software is going to exist, right?”

“I think right now, you know, you have this core group of, we'll call it like agent forward engineers, right? Or agent forward companies that understand how to use this and they are seeing these, you know, five X, 10 X productivity games as a result.”

“We're not always, I mean, we're not gonna be interacting with code for that much longer, you know, or programs might not be the right, like level of abstraction, but I think what is always true probably is that it will be the human computer interface.”

“And in practice, what it looks like is that teams use Devon to ship 10 times faster and to do 10 times more.”

“But I honestly, I mean, I think we'll have solved most of that over the next five years or so.”

“And yeah, I think that's true, and I think we will get there.”

“All of those like demos that we showed, you know, in, in, in our launch announcement were like actual runs of Devon that we had done ourselves and like run into and been like, holy shit, this is insane.”

“Let's be real here, ok? Agents did not work generally, ok? And so, there was a lot of like, how do you make it work for you very specific?”

“And I think for the last few years, it's doubled about four or five times every year, you know, which is insane, which means, you know, you wait two or three months and it's already doing twice as much work.”

“I think in practice what we see with folks, especially in these kind of like enterprise migrations is, is, you know, when folks measure internally, they see something like an eight to 15 X gain for a lot of these use cases with Devon because, Yeah, as you're s…”

“Yeah, I think what we find is, is, and I think this, you know, we'll see this trend generally in software engineering, which is knowing all the little, memorizing all the facts or knowing all the little details or being really good at Syntax of some language o…”

“I think that there will come a point, and my guess on this point is probably in the neighborhood of, let's say, two, three, four years from now, where we stop using code as the main interface.”

“Funnily enough, I mean, I think, if anything, we will have way more software engineers, not fewer.”

“My honest opinion is, I think there is some, you know, rapid, singularity, superintelligence thing that people kind of talk about. I would guess It's very hard to say. You know, nothing's impossible, but I would guess that that's not something that happens in …”

“And so, you know, I think software engineering, the job that we call software engineering is going to change, but I think practically, like, there's actually going to be way more software engineers than ever, you know, and I think there's a lot of precedent fo…”

“I think, you know, our demand for software to be built is actually probably a lot more than 10 X what we're currently getting, and so, you know, I think what happens is we get to open up the power of software engineering to a lot more people, and every single …”

“You know, I think what happens, honestly, is I think that demand is going to just keep rising with supply. And I think the training process is going to change a little bit, but, you know, I think a lot of these core fundamentals of, you know, if you think of s…”

“What you see in general is that that doubling time is about every seven months, which already is pretty crazy, actually, but in code, it's actually even faster. It's every 70 days, which is two or three months, and so, you know, if you look at various software…”

“And I think that, you know, we're gonna see another 16 to 64 X over the next 12 months as well.”

“There was no, no, no information that was given out, for example, in terms of customer data, training data, any things like that. And so, so, you know, all of that is, is, is strictly proprietary and then remains, you know, our exclusive access.”

“We're talking to a company last week, a public company, they're in like a billion dollars in usage-based spend through enterprise contracts. All of that billion dollars is handled by hand.”

“The commercial model of Dropbox incentivized, it was a team-based thing, number of users. It incentivized us to get really good at getting a wall-to-wall deployment. Did not incentivize us at all to drive incremental usage. In fact, in a very literal sense, yo…”

“Actually, one of the things that's really fascinating is you'll see companies that are actually, their pricing model is like a cost plus model in this moment, where basically they just fix their margin. And then they basically say, look, we just, we're going t…”

“Look, I think in three years, there's no reason that shouldn't be a 10 X.”

“There are thirty million software engineers in the world. You know, we're going to make them all 10 X more efficient over these coming years. We're going to be writing 10 X more code.”

“At some point, telling your computer what to do is not going to take place with code. It is going to take place with you just expressing your intent.”

“If you add all their valuations today, what is that? Like, 500 B, something like that? I think that's gonna go way up in the next five years.”

“Well, Anthropic has quadrupled their revenue since they were valued at sixty billion, so it seems like a fair one to pick.”

“I think the consolidation happens, and I think in total we probably end up with something like Two to six players.”

“I think the natural conclusion of RL, which is what we're kind of getting to, is you basically can solve any benchmark, which is insane to think about... Which means like, if you have a clean set of environments, if you have a good feedback loop to decide what…”

“We pretty routinely see spots where we can make things like anywhere from six X to 20 X more efficient.”

“And I think that's kind of what we're going to get to over the next, I'll call it like five or so years is a point where Software engineering. We might even still call it software engineering or programming or whatever, but it's, it really is just you telling …”

“And I think we're going to see something similar here where it's, you know, imagine, imagine the w w w what we will do, you know, when we get to the point where everyone can just build products and websites and apps and whatever it is of that level of quality …”

“And the crazy thing is over the last like three, four years, that number has basically, it's doubled approximately every three months.”

“I think in a kind of zero sum view, you might say, well, we're gonna be 10 times faster at software engineering, and so it means that we're gonna need 10 times fewer software engineers, right? But I think in practice, what really is gonna happen is actually, w…”

“I think we're going to shift more and more towards this agentic workflow because, you know, that's in some ways it's kind of like that the way to really get to that, you know, 200%, 500%, a thousand percent gains that, that, that, that we'll be getting to with…”

“I think the one that we'll get to over the course of several years is probably something where you don't even look at the code at all. And you're actually just looking at your own product and you're just able to look and specify and say, Hey, you know, This bu…”

“I think it's probably gonna happen this year. And if not this year, then next year.”

“To your point on consumer, you know, I actually think that I think that we'll probably see a resurgence actually in consumer over the next the next few months or so. And I think one of the big things I think that will actually flip that switch is is like a rea…”

“I think today, even still it's, it feels so outlandish, but I think a couple of years ago, a couple of years from now, this is going to be commonplace is single use software actually.”

“I think that a lot of the existing great businesses are going to do very well in the age of AI. I think there will be you know, in the neighborhood, I would say if kind of like you know, the 10 to 20 power law businesses of the new ones that come up from AI, y…”

“Devin is, is fully able to make all of its own decisions in the same way that a human software engineer would. And so you know, obviously writing and editing code is a huge piece of that, but also, you know, being able to work with the command line, being able…”