Prediction certainty 2/5 debate potential 3/5

Wu: Sudden AGI singularity won't happen in the next few years

Scott Wu · A Cheeky Pint with Cognition CEO Scott Wu · Aug 27, 2025 · at 46:19

Cognition CEO Scott Wu discusses AGI timelines with Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, pushing back against predictions of an imminent, sudden superintelligence shift.

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“My honest opinion is, I think there is some, you know, rapid, singularity, superintelligence thing that people kind of talk about. I would guess It's very hard to say. You know, nothing's impossible, but I would guess that that's not something that happens in the immediate, immediate future, especially because, you know, as we said, a lot of the work to do is going and collecting all the real world. What are the problems that you want to solve? What are the, how do you define success for all these things? With that said, I think, yeah, I mean, we're going to just keep, like, I think it's not so binary, basically. I think we're just going to keep rolling out more and more improvements, and these things are going to be more and more capable, but I don't know that we have some sudden shift, at least for the next few years.”

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