Dylan Patel
Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis. On 9 shows, 12 appearances, plus 1 compilation re-air not counted. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
analystfounderexecutiveauthorinvestor@dylan522p ↗LinkedIn ↗semianalysis.com ↗
He founded SemiAnalysis in 2020, developing it into a research and advisory firm tracking the semiconductor supply chain, AI hardware architectures, and data center economics. He provides in-depth analyses of GPU scaling bottlenecks, hyperscaler capex, and competitive dynamics surrounding Nvidia and custom silicon.
9shows
12appearances
390statements
138resolved
94supported
15contradicted
68%fully supported
148said about them ↓ Everything Dylan Patel said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Patel: Anthropic reached $7-8B in revenue at record-breaking pace
“Where you see Anthropic have gone from, like, what, like, a billion or less of revenue to seven to eight by, you know, already, and it's the fastest revenue ramp we've ever seen for anything of this capacity.”
Patel: Superhuman Intelligence Requires Physical Embodiment and Is Far Away
“Digital god is like, well, one, I, like, kind of believe in embodiment, and, like, you need non-digital god, you need a physical, you need the capability of, like, having touch and Feel and all that to truly be, ah, have an experience like humans and be smarte…”
Patel: Without AI Boom, US Would Lose Global Hegemony to China
“I think if we didn't have the AI boom, the U.S. Probably would be behind China and no longer the world hegemon by the end of the decade, if not sooner.”
Patel: If Taiwan Geopolitical Risk Scares You from TSMC, Avoid Apple Too
“I know a lot of people's PMs are like, oh, you can't invest in TSMC because geopolitical risk, and it's like, no, dude, you can't invest in fucking Apple.”
Patel: AI skeptics like Yann LeCun are completely wrong
“Like, Yann LeCun and, like, these kind of people who are AI bears. I respect them. I like what they, like, their ideas. I think they're completely wrong, but, you know.”
Dylan Patel: Intel is crawling to NVIDIA in a full-circle reversal
“It's kind of poetic that everything's gone full circle and Intel's sort of crawling to NVIDIA.”
Patel: China Will Pause NVIDIA Bans During AI Chip Capacity Gap
“I think they'll be able to ramp. I think it'll take a little bit longer and there will be, like, a sort of a gap in between where China probably backtracks and says it's fine.”
Patel: Apple has lacked visionary innovation under Tim Cook for a decade
“The reason why Apple hasn't done anything interesting in like, you know, nearly a decade is, is, you know, they've got a not visionary at the head. Tim Cook's greatest supply chain. And they're just plowing the money into buybacks.”
Patel: OpenAI signed up to pay Oracle $80+ billion annually
“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”
Patel: Claude Code and Cursor have surpassed GitHub Copilot in ARR
“If you look at the revenue ARR chart, it's like, Cloud code in, like, three months has surpassed them, and, like, cursor, you know, easily surpassed them, and then, like, even, like, companies like Replin or, like, and Windsurf slash Cognition are, like, gonna…”
Patel: Microsoft's custom AI silicon lags behind Amazon, Google, and Meta
“Microsoft, their custom silicon kind of sucks but the other three, they're really upping their orders massively over the last year. You know, Amazon is making millions of Tranium. Google's making millions of TPUs. TPUs clearly are like a hundred percent utiliz…”
Patel: Hyperscalers cannot replicate CPU and storage profit margins in GPUs
“Their ROIC is, like, extremely high on CPU and storage, and to assume that it can, like, translate over to GPUs is, is a bit of a fallacy, which is why a lot of these companies are moving in, right?”
Patel: Microsoft's AI hardware programs fail because Microsoft lacks model understanding
“There's a reason why Microsoft's hardware programs suck, right? Because they don't understand models at all.”
Patel: AMD cannot catch NVIDIA due to poor software, networking, and co-design
“Why is AMD not catching up despite being awesome at hardware engineering? Well, yeah, they're bad at networking, but also they suck at software and they can't do hardware software co-design.”
Patel: Microsoft dropped Stargate for OpenAI due to slow execution
“Microsoft is not building
Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”
Patel: Huawei Obtains TSMC Wafers via Shell Companies
“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”
Patel: Every semiconductor company except NVIDIA is terrible at software
“I would say every semiconductor company in the world sucks at software except for NVIDIA, right?”
Patel: AMD lacks software talent and refuses to fund internal GPU clusters
“AMD is really good, but they're missing software. AMD has no clue how to do software, I think. They've got very few developers on it. They won't spend the money to build a GPU cluster for themselves so that they can develop software.”
Patel: Initial NVIDIA GPU cloud deployments suffer a 5% failure rate
“Google's brought in a level of reliability that NVIDIA GPUs don't have. You know, the dirty secret is to go ask people what the reliability rate of GPUs is in the cloud or in a deployment. It's like, oh God, it is not, they're reliable-ish, like, but like, esp…”
Patel: Meta and Microsoft may take free cash flows close to zero
“I think Meta and Microsoft may even take their free cash flows close to zero and just spent.”
Patel: Frontier AI model training costs are effectively irrelevant
“In my opinion, I think that's a little bit spicy, but yeah, it's like training costs are irrelevant, right? Like GPT-IV, right? Like 20,000 A-one hundreds. That's like, I know it sounds like a lot of money.”
Patel: Fine-tuning existing small models for cloud use is useless
“Unless, unless you're fine tuning for on device use, I think fine tuning current existing models, especially the smaller ones is a useless waste of time, right?”
The other half of the tape: Dylan Patel's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 142 times in 65 episodes across the shows. 6 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most John Coogan 30Jordi Hays 14Brad Gerstner 11Alex Kantrowitz 9Alessio Fanelli 8Shawn Wang 6Bill Gurley 4Doug O'Laughlin 3
Statements about Dylan Patel, by other people (6)
Burazin: CPUs Will Become the Next Critical Bottleneck for AI Agents
“You will get to the point, and Dylan Patel was at the conference talking about, from Semi-Analysis that talks usually about GPUs, was also talking about how CPUs will now be a bottleneck because it will be the constraint. You won't be able to grow, or we won't…”
Dylan Patel: GPT-5.4 TAM Exceeds $100B, Meets Microsoft-OpenAI AGI Clause
“Dylan Patel said on Dorkesh, the TAM for GPC 5.4 is north of a hundred billion dollars, but there's adoption lag. That's considered AGI as far as the Microsoft OpenAI contract is concerned.”
Coogan: OpenAI used FP8 weight storage two years before DeepSeek
“And when you talk to Dylan Patel, I was asking him about deep seek and how deep seek was doing all these innovations and like moving to floating .8, like smaller smaller, basically smaller numbers, storing the weights. And he was like, oh yeah, but open AI was…”
Coogan: Dylan Patel reports Stargate supercomputer cluster goes online in December
“Dylan Patel says December is when Stargate's coming online, and that should be a big like the biggest cluster ever”
Prakash: SemiAnalysis inference report erred by assuming unpriced input tokens
“I think there were some errors in that analysis. In particular we were trying to decode it, and one of the things we noticed is that it assumed that input tokens weren't being priced. So I think that may have been an error in the model.”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
TBPN 94
Latent Space 19
BG2 Pod 15
Big Technology 9
the MAD Podcast 2
the a16z Podcast 1
Invest Like the Best 1
No Priors 1
2026 44 mentions in 25 episodes 2 per episode
- OpenAI Ends Side Quests, SF Housing Market is Back, Kalshi’s $1B Prize | Diet TBPN
- Super Bowl Ad Reactions, ChatGPT launches ads, Jordi vs France | Diet TBPN
- China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
- Why OpenAI Is Killing Side Projects to Win AI
- Claude Code for Finance + The Global Memory Shortage: Doug O'Laughlin, SemiAnalysis
- FULL INTERVIEW: Doug O'Laughlin Thinks Microsoft is OUT of the AI Race
- Meta Settles Addiction Suits, Tim Cook Signs Off After 15 Years, OpenAI’s Jalapeño Chip | Diet TBPN
- AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
- 17 more episodes that year, every mention in 2026 →
2025 84 mentions in 32 episodes 3 per episode
- The Future of Artificial Intelligence
- Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- ChatGPT Turns Three, OpenAI x Thrive, David Sacks vs. The New York Times | Diet TBPN
- Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
- Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
- Meta Poaches OpenAI Engineers
- 2024 Year in Review: The Big Scaling Debate, the Four Wars of AI, Top Themes and the Rise of Agents
- Weekly Recap: Tesla Robotaxi, Mr. Beast's AI Tool, Yacine, The Social Network 2, Neuralink Update
- 24 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 14 mentions in 8 episodes 2 per episode
- Building an open AI company - with Ce and Vipul of Together AI
- Year of Tech in Review (ep25)
- Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
- Production AI Engineering starts with Evals
- The Four Wars of the AI Stack - Dec 2023 Recap
- How to Spend a Trillion Dollars Fast (ep13)
- State of AI 2024: Frontier Models, AI Geopolitics, Robotics | Nathan Benaich, Air Street Capital
- The Secret Billionaire Party (ep6)
- every mention in 2024, scene by scene →
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Dylan's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVEST LIKE THE BESTLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 2 | 94 | 67% 20/30 | full record on Invest Like the Best → |
| a16zLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 2 | 66 | 64% 18/28 | full record on the a16z Podcast → |
| MADLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 1 | 66 | 64% 14/22 | full record on the MAD Podcast → |
| BG2LEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 1 | 56 | 71% 12/17 | full record on BG2 Pod → |
| LATENT SPACELEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 2 | 49 | 68% 15/22 | full record on Latent Space → |
| TBPNLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 1 +1 | 25 | 67% 4/6 | full record on TBPN → |
| NO PRIORSLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 1 | 16 | 100% 7/7 | full record on No Priors → |
| BIG TECHNOLOGYLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 1 | 14 | 75% 3/4 | full record on Big Technology → |
 SOURCERYLEDGER | Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 1 | 4 | 50% 1/2 | full record on Sourcery → |