Everything Shawn Wang said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Swyx predicts coding SaaS will outlive all other SaaS
“Coding SAS will be the last SAS in the world because all the other SAS will just be buildable via coding SAS.”
Google's internal compute credit market caused it to miss GPT
“This is a thing that has been tried internally within Google, and it led to Google missing GPT.”
Swix: Pull requests and code reviews are dying, replaced by prompt requests
“The pull request is dying. Yeah. Right? It's going to be the prompt request. And then beyond that, code review is also kind of dying”
Swix: Standalone Vector Databases Are Over as a Category
“Everyone has vector indexes now, but like, I think it's fair to say vector databases as a standalone category are over.”
Swix: OpenAI will issue a cryptocurrency token to fund compute
“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year.
And my money is on, they have to do a coin.
Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”
Swyx: AI models hit a 2T parameter wall, won't reach 10T
“As far as everyone is concerned, Claude, you know, Opus 3.5 is not coming out. GPT 4.5 is not coming out. And Gemini two, like we don't have pro whatever we've hit that wall, whatever that wall is. Maybe I'll call it like the two trillion parameter wall. Like …”
Swyx found Codex preferable to human marketing consultants for ads
“Codex has been my CMO for the last like two months. Basically running our ads and giving me advice on AEO and SEO and what have you. And I find it much more preferable to talking to a real human consultant, which I've also done. And it's roughly the same resul…”
Custom $50B ASICs become economically rational for $500B AI training runs
“If you have a trillion dollar or five hundred billion dollar training run, then take fifty billion of that and make an ASIC. Like, it's fine. Like you will get more than 10% efficiency from the ASIC. And like, that makes sense.”
Swyx: AI p(doom) over the next ten years is near zero
“I mean, if you do it in 10 years is near zero.”
Swyx: LLMs will plateau and potentially trigger a 30-year AI winter
“Yeah, probably LLMs are going to run out at some point and they're not AGI and okay, we have maybe another 30 years of AI winter or something and then like the next paradigm really is actually the thing.”
Swyx: Specialized agent labs like Cursor, Cognition, and Harvey will endure
“There will always be capability overhangs. They may not stay still, and so you gotta be nimble. But the Sierras of the world, the Cognitions of the world, the Cursors of the world, the Decagons and Harvey's, these are all agent labs for their field. They can b…”
Swyx: Agent labs will capture higher margins than model labs
“I think what I've been calling agent labs, which are people who build on top of all the other models. We'll probably have a better time with the margins because they price against the end user hours spent or like human labor. Whereas models get commodity price…”
OpenAI Plans to Scale Compute Power Capacity to 125 Gigawatts
“For OpenAI to go from like two gigawatts of compute this year to 30 with everything they've already announced, and then there's a plan for the next 125. Like, the United States uses 300.”
Swix: Frontier model sizes have likely peaked around 2 trillion parameters
“I wonder if we've hit the peak big model craze because now I do expect, you know, 10 trillion model releases, you know, 100 trillion model releases. Probably not. I think we might have peaked at two.”
Swix: Every frontier lab now distills dense models into MoEs
“I think like, I think this is the pattern for every frontier lab now.”
Swyx: AI inference providers are a proxy for the open-versus-closed model gap
“The other thing I always think about from a finance point of view that, Maybe people don't even think, don't think about that closely, but obviously push back if you disagree, is that it's basically a proxy for the gap between open models and closed models. Be…”
Swix: OpenAI Deep Research was built by three people as an o3 wrapper
“As far as I know, it's three people did it. It was Isa and like the two other collaborators that she had. I don't know if they did that much on top of all three, like every indication I've had from over the eye is that deep research is more or less a thin wrap…”
Swix: Cost-Unconscious Builders Win in AI by Building Ahead of Cost Curves
“So you should actually build your products ahead of where costs are so that by the time they are popular, actually your frontier. So it's actually, I think the efficiency thing trips up a lot of people in terms of Being cost and cost conscious and wasting a lo…”
Swix: Claude 3 degraded in capability a month after launch
“I used the same project to do this, to try to repeat the demo that I made for myself a month afterwards, and it wasn't anywhere as smart. So cloud three got dumber, but it looks like I like made up the demo or something, but no, like literally I just reran the…”
Swix: Chat completions are dying and early AI frameworks will age poorly
“Like, I don't think people realize, but, like, I'll just say it out here, like, chat completions is dying. So, like, any framework that was built in that era with, like, no conception of real-time, no conception of omnimodal or multimodal native things, they w…”
Swix: Descript still sucks despite major funding and OpenAI backing
“Descript is so much funding. They had OpenAI invested in them, and they still suck.”
Swix: Most podcasts are bad because creators lack real-world experience
“The reason that most podcasts or YouTube videos are shit is they're made by people who don't have life experience, who are not that important in the world. They're not doing important jobs. And so what you want to actually enable is CEOs to each of them make t…”
Swix: Deep research agents are the first agent category with true PMF
“What are the hard problems in this brand of agent that is like probably the first real product market fit agent. I will say more so than the computer use ones. This is the one where like, yeah, people are like, yeah, easily pays for 200 dollars worth a month w…”
Swix: AI engineering exists because labs crowdsource emergent capability discovery
“The reason that AI engineering can exist outside of the model labs is because the model labs release Models with capabilities that they don't even fully know because you never train specifically for it. It's emergent. And you can rely on basically crowdsourcin…”