S Curve
topic on 7 shows · 12 statements across 11 episodes
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12 statements about S Curve, every show
Evans: Early Tech S-Curves Make Scale Obvious but Mechanics Unknowable
“There is a stage in the S-curve in the development of a new, big new technology Where, like, at the early part of the curve, like, it's suddenly very obvious that this is going to be huge, and everyone's very excited, but you don't know how any of it's going t…”
Masad: Focusing on cost signals a technology has reached an S-curve plateau
“Cost question is secondary to the performance question. When you focus on cost is when you reach a certain asymptotic plateau in the S-curve.”
Sacerdote: S-Curve Exponential Growth Turns Linear at 30% to 40% Penetration
“Generally, once you get to 30 to 40% penetrated on the S curve, That's usually when that exponential growth becomes linear”
Roucher: Visual AI models will likely jump the reasoning S-curve in 2025
“But as with text agents, we've really found that we made a jump on the S curve with reasoning models. I think it's going to be the same with the next visual models, basically better base models just allow you to jump over this S curve. And probably I think it'…”
Beauchamp: ML model performance plateaus near human-level on an S-curve
“With machine learning, first of all, you see that the performance of the models follows an S-curve. So it's not like it just goes off to infinity, right? And the S curve, it kind of plateaus around human level performance.”
Lessin: Tech is moving from exponential hype to S-curve realism
“I think we're at the end of truly people just being obsessed purely with exponentials and thinking they're very smart for exponentials and people getting serious about what an S curve looks like.”
Matt Clifford: Capital and Talent in AI Labs Will Unlock Next S-Curve
“My, if I had to bet, my bet is that the enormous amount of capital and talent That has been aggregated, you know, around this relatively small number of companies because of the hype will be enough to unlock the next S-curve, and so you'll see, you know, kind …”
Evans: Smartphones have reached the upper slope of the S-curve
“Well, so the way I kind of think about this is we're now kind of on the upper slopes of the S-curve for smartphones. There was a period when, like, the first smartphones were amazing, and then there's a period of very, very rapid improvement, the screens get b…”
Sinofsky: Maturing S-curve companies change executives to extract revenue from existing users
“And, the most interesting thing as you mature on the S-curve is that generally what happens is companies go through massive turmoil, And they change their executive staff, and they bring in people who are willing to figure out how to charge your existing custo…”
Sinofsky: PCs will become super expensive and niche like mainframes
“PCs are going to get super expensive now. Like, and everything about them is, it's just like buying a mainframe. Like, today, you can, if you're a big insurance company running mainframe software, you can hire programmers, you can get new features. It's just 1…”
Maltz: Top companies plan their next S-curve during peak growth
“The best businesses are actually thinking about, even when they're going through that fastest S curve, they're thinking about, what's the next S curve that I can build in the business?”
Domingos: Technology Growth Curves Are S-Curves, Not Perpetual Exponentials
“I think that argument is actually very dubious, because in reality, no exponential goes on forever. Because there's always a limit because the world is finite. So actually what happens with all of these technology curves is that in the beginning they look like…”