Recursive Self Improvement
topic on 10 shows · 21 statements across 17 episodes
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21 statements about Recursive Self Improvement, every show
Friedberg: Recursive AI improvement will happen somewhere, creating an uncatchable lead
“The recursive self-improvement scenario will play out somewhere on planet Earth, and when that happens, when that person or that organization or that country now has that capacity, they have now a huge technological advantage, and then it becomes very hard to …”
Ryan Chi: AI industry lacks shared framework for recursive self-improvement
“There isn't a shared language to talk about the RSI potential of models, and so we created this as an apples to apples way to actually benchmark across the models.”
Ryan Chi: Direct recursive self-improvement testing is too slow and expensive
“In an ideal world, what you want to do is actually take a frontier model and have it train the next version of itself and see where the delta comes from. But obviously that's very expensive and slow.”
AI labs rely on autocatalytic progress, not recursive self-improvement
“But if you ask the most sophisticated individuals at the labs, it's not actually RSI that's occurring, which could lead to some sort of runaway winner because they were an epsilon ahead of the others. It's auto catalytic effects, which just means you're using …”
Reyes: Model training and self-improvement will not stay exclusive to frontier labs
“And so I think that right now the, there's like a couple of companies that claim that, like, recursive self-improvement and model training will be only their domain. And I think in reality, many businesses will have access to that technology via software servi…”
Friedberg: Recursive Self-Improvement in AI Is Likely to Happen Soon
“I happen to Believe, having looked at this and thought about it, I think that it is possible. I think it is likely to happen soon.”
Bostrom: Recursive self-improvement could yield diminishing returns rather than an explosion
“It's also conceivable that even when you do get recursive self-improvement, you still might not have An intelligence explosion. It might, there might be diminishing returns at some point. Presumably there are at some point, but it could turn out that that is c…”
Bostrom: AI Will Reach Domain Superintelligence Before Achieving Across-The-Board AGI
“At the point where it is as good as an average human in everything, it might already be super intelligent in some key relevant domains for AI research.”
Guo: Researchers have predicted ASI is 18 months away for five years
“The data I have is that a number of very smart and even very self-aware research scientists have felt that, you know, there was some knee in the curve on recursive self-improvement or ASI, 18 months away, every 18 months for the last five years.”
Guo: Compute and complex data are bigger AI limiters than algorithms
“The question of, like, how you are going to go gather that data for less verifiable, more complex domains, or do you run into the actual constraints on the, like, physical compute accessibility side? Like, I think that's probably more of a limiter than this be…”
Kant: Catching up to frontier AI labs will soon become unfeasible
“We've got a small window before models are Really impacting recursive self-improvement to a level where catching up otherwise might become unfeasible.”
Mignano: Incumbent AI labs will reach recursive self-improvement before startups
“I think it's probably done by one of the labs that already has all these advantages, these vast compute advantages. They already have models that are at the frontier. They have the infrastructure. They have the chip. So I think it's probably done by one of the…”
Midha: Recursive Self-Improvement in AI Is Already Happening
“Some people would call that recursive self-improvement totally happening.”
Poetiq achieves faster, cheaper recursive self-improvement than existing methods
“The core insight that we had is that we could do recursive self-improvement far faster and cheaper than all of the other ways that people had been proposing to do this.”
Frontier labs achieve recursive self-improvement by retraining models at each step
“And, you know, of course, Anthropic and OpenAI and Google, they're exploring recursive self-improvement, but Typically at that level of having the, you know, having to train a new model for every step of self-improvement that they do.”
Adler: Recursive AI Improvement Requires Automating Research, Not Just Coding
“That's one step, but then you need to take that engineering and use it to actually automate the AI research. You need to go from being able to implement the ideas more quickly to using that to fuel faster and faster growth in the breakthrough ideas themselves …”
Misra: Current LLM architectures cannot recursively self-improve into new paradigms
“That kind of self-improvement is not possible with these architectures. They can refine these. They can fill out these rows where the answer already exists.”
Schmidt: AI recursive self-improvement is 5 to 10 years away
“Not yet. I'm, I've funded a number of startups which claim to be close to it, but of course these are startups and you never know, which tells me it's five, 10 years.”
Mann: AI self-improvement will not hit a wall if given empirical tools
“I don't expect there to be a wall in terms of models ability to improve themselves if we can give them access to the ability to be empirical.”
Aravind Srinivas: Current AI Lacks Recursive Self-Improvement
“What you're suggesting is like an AI that not only learns and trains on stuff that the humans throw at it, but also like decides what to do next in terms of how to make itself better. Recursive self-improvement. That is not correct yet.”
Domingos: AI Has Not Yet Achieved Continuous Recursive Self-Improvement Loops
“Having said that, this is still quite limited in what it can do, and it's not, we don't have enough at this point for this thing to set up this loop where it just keeps getting better and better. That hasn't happened yet”