Nate Silver: Almost every modern US election is a change election
“Almost every election now is a change election.”
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Weisenthal: Capital One-Discover deal spread made full post-election round trip
“If you look at that spread on that deal, that's been a complete round trip since the election.”
Rauch: 2024 election saw less AI fake content than anticipated
“I think we saw less of the AI will be used for, like, fake content to some extent.”
Sacks: Positive Q3 GDP report is probably too late to impact the election
“So I think it's probably too late here for the GDP numbers to have a big impact on the election.”
Teo: Singapore will ban synthetic depictions of candidates during elections
“It is, in a way, a very specific set of requirements that we are putting in place, which is that in an election setting, we should only be shown saying what we actually said, or doing what we actually did, and anything else would be an assault. On factual accu…”
Sacks explains why prediction markets price narrow election leads near 100%
“So if for sure you knew the election was 51 49, The betting markets would swing to a hundred zero.”
Sacks: Stopping election denial requires making elections above reproach
“I think that if you want people to stop questioning elections or engaging in election denial, you need to make the elections above reproach.”
Brown: 2024 election will likely yield divided government, boosting stocks
“It looks like actually the outcome's gonna be still up in the air, but probably lead to a divided government, which is positive for stocks, historically where no one party gets to do a lot of Weird shit in either direction.”
Thiel: Western democracies use single-day voting with almost no absentee ballots
“At a minimum, you run them, you try to run elections the same way you do it in every other Western democracy. You have one day voting. You have practically no absentee ballots. You have and it's, you know, it's one day where everything happens. It's not this t…”
Narayanan: AI bots influencing elections with misinformation is not a real danger
“So people have been worried, for instance, about bots creating misinformation with AI and influence in elections and that sort of thing. We're very, very skeptical that that's going to be a real danger.”
Lessin: AI Will Severely Disrupt Upcoming Election Cycles
“I actually think AI technology is super dangerous. Like I think it's going to completely fuck with our election cycle. I think it's like incredibly hard to tell what's real or not.”
Albergotti: Post-Cambridge Analytica studies show social media disinformation doesn't sway elections
“We've seen so many studies that have come out since Cambridge Analytica that have basically backed up that point of view, which is like, you know, even though there's tons of information on, so disinformation on social media, people are not really ultimately s…”
Calacanis: Podcasts will decide the 2024 presidential election
“Podcast will decide the election.”
Silver: Moderate political candidates gain a two to four point electoral advantage
“You can actually see the effect of being more moderate will gain you an extra two or three or four points, right? Being less More moderate, more radical in some cases, will lose you two or three or four points.”
Srinivasan: The Permanent US Government Is Unelected Bureaucrats, Media, and Academics
“So the actual government is what remains constant through elections. And that's, you know, the official bureaucracy of, you know, about three million federal employees, many of whom have career tenure. And if so, they were not elected and can't be fired. Okay.…”
Sacks: Moderna vaccine would have released before election without trial delay
“If it weren't for those three weeks, Moderna's vaccine would have happened before Pfizer, and it would have come out about a week before the election.”
Calacanis: Putin interfered in the US election on behalf of Trump
“We all know Putin interfered with the election and we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate.”
Siddar: US Election Results Will Take Days or Weeks to Determine
“Most likely we will need a few more days, if not weeks, to learn the result of the elections.”
Siddar: Trump Likely to Claim Premature Election Night Victory
“It's likely that Trump may announce a victory the night of the elections, looking at the existing vote count, and that may trigger some sort of unrest in certain cities that are already, you know, mobilized with BLM movement,”