Elections

topic on 9 shows · 20 statements across 18 episodes · said 1 times in 1 episodes since 2026

TBPN 1 More or Less Cheeky Pint We Live to Build the Knowledge Project Latent Space Big Technology All-In 20VC

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20 statements about Elections, every show

ALL-IN Insight
Nate Silver: Almost every modern US election is a change election
“Almost every election now is a change election.”
Nate Silver Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 30:05 Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
CHEEKY PINT Assertion Supported
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Luana Lopes Lara Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 6:23 Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
TBPN Assertion Supported
Weisenthal: Capital One-Discover deal spread made full post-election round trip
“If you look at that spread on that deal, that's been a complete round trip since the election.”
Joe Weisenthal Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 14:56 Joe Weisenthal on Finance Podcasting, Country Music, and Response to Solana Ad.
Rauch: 2024 election saw less AI fake content than anticipated
“I think we saw less of the AI will be used for, like, fake content to some extent.”
Guillermo Rauch Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 37:53 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Positive Q3 GDP report is probably too late to impact the election
“So I think it's probably too late here for the GDP numbers to have a big impact on the election.”
David Sacks Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 13:50 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
LATENT SPACE Disclosure
Teo: Singapore will ban synthetic depictions of candidates during elections
“It is, in a way, a very specific set of requirements that we are putting in place, which is that in an election setting, we should only be shown saying what we actually said, or doing what we actually did, and anything else would be an assault. On factual accu…”
Josephine Teo Oct 19, 2024 ▶ 55:39 Singapore: the AI Engineer Nation — with Minister Josephine Teo
ALL-IN Insight
Sacks explains why prediction markets price narrow election leads near 100%
“So if for sure you knew the election was 51 49, The betting markets would swing to a hundred zero.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 2:27 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
ALL-IN Insight
Sacks: Stopping election denial requires making elections above reproach
“I think that if you want people to stop questioning elections or engaging in election denial, you need to make the elections above reproach.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 15:35 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brown: 2024 election will likely yield divided government, boosting stocks
“It looks like actually the outcome's gonna be still up in the air, but probably lead to a divided government, which is positive for stocks, historically where no one party gets to do a lot of Weird shit in either direction.”
Josh Brown Oct 16, 2024 ▶ 51:15 Fear Buying AI & Automation Stocks — With Downtown Josh Brown
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Thiel: Western democracies use single-day voting with almost no absentee ballots
“At a minimum, you run them, you try to run elections the same way you do it in every other Western democracy. You have one day voting. You have practically no absentee ballots. You have and it's, you know, it's one day where everything happens. It's not this t…”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 4:43 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: AI bots influencing elections with misinformation is not a real danger
“So people have been worried, for instance, about bots creating misinformation with AI and influence in elections and that sort of thing. We're very, very skeptical that that's going to be a real danger.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 29:51 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MORE OR LESS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: AI Will Severely Disrupt Upcoming Election Cycles
“I actually think AI technology is super dangerous. Like I think it's going to completely fuck with our election cycle. I think it's like incredibly hard to tell what's real or not.”
Sam Lessin Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 44:26 #24: Sam Altman - Religious Cult Leader or CEO? · More or Less Podcast
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Albergotti: Post-Cambridge Analytica studies show social media disinformation doesn't sway elections
“We've seen so many studies that have come out since Cambridge Analytica that have basically backed up that point of view, which is like, you know, even though there's tons of information on, so disinformation on social media, people are not really ultimately s…”
Reed Albergotti Oct 16, 2023 ▶ 4:15 Hamas vs. Israel Rewrites Social Media Norms
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Podcasts will decide the 2024 presidential election
“Podcast will decide the election.”
Jason Calacanis May 5, 2023 ▶ 1:53:17 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Silver: Moderate political candidates gain a two to four point electoral advantage
“You can actually see the effect of being more moderate will gain you an extra two or three or four points, right? Being less More moderate, more radical in some cases, will lose you two or three or four points.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 36:06 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
Srinivasan: The Permanent US Government Is Unelected Bureaucrats, Media, and Academics
“So the actual government is what remains constant through elections. And that's, you know, the official bureaucracy of, you know, about three million federal employees, many of whom have career tenure. And if so, they were not elected and can't be fired. Okay.…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 1:50:15 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
ALL-IN What-if
Sacks: Moderna vaccine would have released before election without trial delay
“If it weren't for those three weeks, Moderna's vaccine would have happened before Pfizer, and it would have come out about a week before the election.”
David Sacks Nov 25, 2020 ▶ 17:45 E13: SPACsgiving Special! Vaccine news, innovation vs regulation, fixing higher ed, challenge trials
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Putin interfered in the US election on behalf of Trump
“We all know Putin interfered with the election and we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:36:04 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
WE LIVE TO BUILD Prediction Held up
Siddar: US Election Results Will Take Days or Weeks to Determine
“Most likely we will need a few more days, if not weeks, to learn the result of the elections.”
Cenk Siddar Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 3:27 The Hidden Drought That Toppled Governments Across a Whole Region
WE LIVE TO BUILD Prediction Held up
Siddar: Trump Likely to Claim Premature Election Night Victory
“It's likely that Trump may announce a victory the night of the elections, looking at the existing vote count, and that may trigger some sort of unrest in certain cities that are already, you know, mobilized with BLM movement,”
Cenk Siddar Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 4:02 The Hidden Drought That Toppled Governments Across a Whole Region

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