AI Progress

“But in 20, 29, it's actually the case that you're getting like four X as much AI progress or possibly five X as much AI progress. As you got, like, as you got in 25, sort of weighing up the relevant metrics.”

“This amazing progress that will totally add 10 or 15 or 20 years to people's lives over the next 50 years and absolutely kind of impact preventable, you know, diseases from people.”

“Try to identify what is the exponential in the world that has both the steepest curve And we'll go the longest. And, you know, many decades ago, this curve was Moore's law. And that probably was, you know, that was at the time, like clearly the right thing to …”

“I'm just saying it's evolutionary, not revolutionary at this point. It's linear, not exponential.”

“The more, you know, the more expertise you have, but things like programming, for instance, the better you're able to Use and leverage these tools for your own benefit. And with the right kind of expertise all this AI progress is actually empowerment. Like, it…”

“The act has a long way to go, and it seems like the odds of it getting into law are low, but not zero. It's safe to say that as written, the requirements in the bill would be an incredible gift to America's adversaries and catastrophic for overall AI progress.”

“AI progress is pacing way ahead of public expectations, and most managers are months behind when it comes to understanding frontier capabilities.”

“AI progress will slow down because we'll have an economic crisis, and we're not going to be able to finance nearly as much of it as we otherwise would.”

“Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid 24 Through, essentially, Gemini three. There would have been none. Everything would have stalled.”

“Fundamentally, if you look at AI progress, it's been a very smooth exponential increase in capabilities.”

“It's not any one critical breakthrough. It's more the accumulation of a huge amount of work in an environment where there's a sort of exogenous force of compute pushing progress forward.”

“I think you could pause AI progress right here for 10 years, and you'd still have about a decade worth of new products to get built, of new ways that people figure out how to use the models even at a GPT-V level model in interesting products and interesting pr…”

“I think progress has actually been accelerating where if you look at the cadence of model releases, it used to be like once a year. And now with the improvements in our post training techniques, we're seeing releases every month or three months.”

“Five more years I think we'll be able to maintain the same rate of progress”

“You are rightfully identifying, ah, the most likely constraint for, ah, AI progress, and hence, by definition, GDP growth and all that stuff, right?”

“And right now that appears to be very unlikely, at least in the near term, but at some point it could happen. But I also have just learned to never bet against human ingenuity, and given the best and the brightest are now so heavily concentrated concentrated i…”

“We could hit some, like, unexpected wall, or we could be missing something, but it looks to us like there's a lot of compounding in front of us still to happen.”

“The number one driver of AI progress over the next couple of years is going to be the deep co-design and co-evolution of like product and users for feedback and actual technology.”

“If you know, remove the open source from that equation, if they wouldn't have been as much open source at As there's been in the five past five years, we would be like decades away from, you know, where, where we are now.”

“And it looks like kind of jumps when you look at it from far away. But when you're in the field, it's more like a continuous evolution.”

“It, for me it feels like an overnight success, seven years in the making.”

“I think we're still early. I think On, on, on, for two reasons. I think one is, ah, the, you know, to Melanie's point, the amount of tuning and optimization across the entire pipeline is, is really premature.”