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AI progress

5 statements across 4 episodes · 4 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Feb 2, 2023 by Gideon Mann · across every show →

Everything said about AI progress, oldest first

Feb 2, 2023 positive
Insight
Mann: AI breakthroughs are an overnight success seven years in the making
“It, for me it feels like an overnight success, seven years in the making.”
Gideon Mann Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 0:33 A Conversation on The State of AI | Melanie Kambadur, Meta & Gideon Mann, Bloomberg
Feb 2, 2023 bullish
Insight
Mann: Unoptimized model pipelines mean AI development is still in early stages
“I think we're still early. I think On, on, on, for two reasons. I think one is, ah, the, you know, to Melanie's point, the amount of tuning and optimization across the entire pipeline is, is really premature.”
Gideon Mann Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 16:31 A Conversation on The State of AI | Melanie Kambadur, Meta & Gideon Mann, Bloomberg
Oct 2, 2025 positive
Insight
Douglas: AI progress relies on accumulated work and compute, not single breakthroughs
“It's not any one critical breakthrough. It's more the accumulation of a huge amount of work in an environment where there's a sort of exogenous force of compute pushing progress forward.”
Sholto Douglas Oct 2, 2025 ▶ 47:31 Sonnet 4.5 & the AI Plateau Myth — Sholto Douglas (Anthropic)
Nov 26, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kaiser: AI progress has been a smooth exponential increase in capabilities
“Fundamentally, if you look at AI progress, it's been a very smooth exponential increase in capabilities.”
Łukasz Kaiser Nov 26, 2025 ▶ 2:46 What’s Next for AI? OpenAI’s Łukasz Kaiser (Transformer Co-Author)
Aug 27, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Greenblatt: Annual AI progress in 2029 will be 4x to 5x faster than in 2025
“But in 20, 29, it's actually the case that you're getting like four X as much AI progress or possibly five X as much AI progress. As you got, like, as you got in 25, sort of weighing up the relevant metrics.”
Ryan Greenblatt Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 1:16:01 AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
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