The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 101 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Suster: 25% of VC funds deployed their entire fund in 2021
“25% of all funds deployed their entire fund in twenty-twenty-one. 25%, one in four. The median time to deploy in twenty-twenty-one was 1.7 years, okay?”
No new nuclear reactor design has been fueled in 50 years
“There's no new nuclear design that has been fueled in the U S in the last 50 years.”
Bernauer predicts Radiant will complete and ship a reactor in 2025
“Twenty-twenty-four will be the last year that we're playing around with the analysis paralysis and the design and answering all the questions, the regulator and simulating things in the twin. And twenty-twenty-five is going to be actually building the thing up…”
Mavrookas: The US Army operates more boats than the Navy
“The Army actually has more boats than the Navy does.”
Palo Alto Networks Acquired Over 40 Companies in Eight Years
“We bought four D-plus companies in the last eight years”
Hurlston: Lumentum Tripled Top-Line Revenue in Five Quarters
“I've been with the company only a short period of time. I've been there about five quarters now. And in those five quarters, we've tripled our top line revenue.”
Friedberg: Higher ed administrative staff grew 6x over 30 years while enrollment stayed flat
“In the last 30 years, administrative staff in educational institutions has grown by six X, while students have been flat.”
Randle: StarCloud was the only company with a GPU operating in space
“They were the only company that had a GPU in space, so there was already some things that, that we saw in attraction, but it was based on the people.”
Armstrong: Existing tokenized stock products are synthetic derivatives, not directly backed
“There are some products that are out there today, but they're actually not one-to-one backed by the stock itself. They are a derivative or a synthetic. So there are ways to get exposure, but you're not actually owning the underlying asset.”
Armstrong: The US Ranks 11th or 12th Globally in Economic Freedom
“And I think that America is one of the more free market capitalist countries in the world. It's not the most. It's, I think it's in the top 11 or 12. You can actually go look at the rankings, right? There's various organizations that publish rankings of the ec…”
Lead Bank reached $280M in revenue and $31M in net income
“Our last year's revenue was about two hundred and eighty million dollars. Yeah. And about thirty one million dollars of net income.”
Bry: Skydio operates the largest US drone factory at scale production
“So we're in what I believe is the biggest drone factory in the US that's actually at scale production right now.”
Abraham: Charles Schwab hasn't been disrupted because it doubled in five years
“Schwab hasn't actually been disrupted yet, really, because that company actually, you know, still doubled in the last five years.”
Abraham: Average financial advisor age is roughly 60 and rising yearly
“The average age of financial advisor goes up by, you know, a year every year. I think the average age is actually roughly 60 or so already, you know”
Nejatian: Short sellers predicted Shopify would go bankrupt within 12 months in 2019
“Cause like back then Shopify was very broadly shorted. Like the day I joined, there was a short solid report that came out calling, saying Shopify would go bankrupt in 12 months.”
Clark: Anduril won a defense program of record within two years
“They, I think, won a program of record, which are the very big budget line item contracts in the National Defense Authorization Act within two years. Fastest timeline since the Korean War.”
Ulevitch: All future autonomous vehicles will be electric
“Part of the shift to electric vehicles, obviously we have EVs today, but as we shift to more autonomous vehicles, all those vehicles are going to be electric as well.”
Dell: US electricity costs increased 2.5x over the past 20 years
“The cost of electricity in, in, in the country has gone up roughly two and a half X for the last 20 years.”
Lowery: US high-volume amplifier manufacturing died after the early 2000s telecom boom
“We haven't built that kind of volume of amplifiers in the United States anyways since the early 2000 when we were doing the base stations and all of the towers were going up for our cell phones everywhere and you had Nortel networks and all of that. That was r…”
Ehrenstein: There are 2.5 million open manufacturing jobs
“We have, I think, two and a half million. It's like we have two and a half million open jobs in manufacturing.”
Maslin: Every moving piece of US defense hardware requires rare earth magnets
“When you think about national security, every satellite, every drone, every missile, every tank, every ship, every submarine, every piece of hardware that moves, that the defense department uses, needs a rare earth magnet.”
Vasavada: Capital is moving out of Hong Kong into Singapore
“It's the same thing in Hong Kong. Everyone's moving money from out of Hong Kong into Singapore.”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025
“Obviously Trump is pretty loud on X and on Trump social around like pushing rate cuts, but I don't think Powell's gonna give into that. So my gut says two.”
Waymo will be operating in six cities by the end of 2025
“I think that I love the product, but also it seems like the speed at which they're iterating is increasing. So I'm going to go with six.”
Diamond: Saturn hits #2 in App Store during summer, beating TikTok
“During the summer months, you know, we reach number two on the entire App Store, number one in productivity, ahead of some great tools like ChatGPT and others, TikTok”
Wright: IoT camera, sensor, and drone costs fell 10x since 2019
“The second is just the explosion of IOT with the cost of cameras, sensors, drones, and robots going down 10 X in the last five years.”
Sam D'Amico: Lower-end Tesla Model 3s use CATL or BYD batteries
“A number of very, very big, very, very competent companies like CTL, UID, et cetera, make the actual packs for the lower end of Tesla's Product line now. So if you get a low end model free, you're actually getting a CTL or BYD pack. You're not getting a you're…”
Alter: 2024 will be the third most active year for European VC
“You know, if the pace continues, I think twenty-twenty-four will become the third most active year ever for VC funding in Europe.”
Power: Stripe and Google capped annual team headcount growth at exactly 30%
“Patrick Carlson from Stripe and also Eric Schmidt at Google basically had a hard and fast rule that you could only scale teams 30% a year without damaging the culture of the org.”
Asparouhov: Active pharmaceutical ingredients are Earth's highest-value materials by mass
“First, if you look at it, the active ingredients in pharmaceuticals are fundamentally the highest value, you know, sort of objects by unit mass on the planet Earth.”
Mavrookas: The US Army operates more watercraft than the Navy
“The Army actually has more boats than the Navy does.”
Randle: Benchmark closed StarCloud investment weeks before Musk hyped orbital data centers
“When Chathan invested in star cloud, it was like weeks, like we closed the investment weeks before Elon started like, you know, professing his love and bullishness on overall data center.”
Romo: Impulse's Helios stage is roughly the size of Falcon 1's second stage
“We've got our Helios program which is the build effectively at the third stage for medium launch vehicles. That's building a rocket stage. You know, it's like, it's roughly the same size as like the second stage of Falcon one, for example, like as a size of th…”
Schimpf: Anduril built first production Ghost Shark within 30 days of contract
“We have our first
Production GoShark already came off the production line, then I think 30 days of signing the production contract.”
O'Shea: MP Materials manufactures many magnets through China
“And then also MP materials, which by the way, like manufacturers, a lot of their magnets through China.”
Ulevitch: Anduril only releases real product footage without CGI renders or special effects
“Palmer has always said things like, we will never ship renders. Like, we will ship, ship actual videos of our products. So when you see an explosion that, like, an Android, like munition, but like explodes in a video. That's a real explosion. They're not doing…”
O'Shea: Carta data shows 41% of Series A startups are AI
“Carta has some, like, incredible data on this that 41% of companies seen in Serie A, Series A are all AI, quote, unquote, AI companies.”
Serhant claims over $20B in lifetime real estate sales
“I've done twenty billion in sales. Over 20 at this point.”
O'Shea: Carta data shows median Series B to C gap is 18-24 months
“Did you know, by the way, on Carta, like, the median time to raise for a Series B to a Series C is 18 to 24 months?”
Ward: Private equity market size is 6-8x venture capital
“The market size of private equity is six to eight times the size of venture.”
Nolan: DOD executive order targets three site reactors next year
“And then you had the DOD executive order, which talked about deploying three reactors on DOD sites as early as next year.”
Power: Hadrian will open its Arizona factory by Christmas
“So we're launching factory three in Arizona, which will be up and running in Christmas. We're in July, we signed the lease a couple of weeks ago, so it'll take us six months from start to finish to have it up and running, which I think is really fast.”
Levy: Billion-dollar-plus tech M&A is up 68% year-to-date
“Billion-dollar-plus tech M&A is up 68% year-to-date.”
Altimeter Capital has made fewer than 70 private investments across seven funds
“We're investing out of our seventh venture fund right now. I, you know, don't quote me on this, but I think like less than 70 total investments on, on the private side across those seven funds.”
Josephs: Autopilot has $40M copying an AI-generated ChatGPT investment portfolio
“That got us the top 15 in the App Store. And I think now we have forty million dollars following that GPT portfolio.”
Garrett: Grandfather Bernard Garrett Sr. was first Black US bank owner
“My grandfather was Bernard Garrett senior, who was one of the, who was the wealthiest black in the country in the fifties and sixties built his wealth through real estate and was the first black man owned banks in the country.”