why aren't all 979 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Bhagat: Millennials and Gen Z now make up 65% of B2B buyers
“The majority of B to B buyers today are millennials and Gen Z, in fact, 65%, and most of them don't want to talk to sales.”
Assertion Partly supported
Atlassian Scaled to $3B Revenue With Under 15% S&M Spend
“We've been able to grow to over three billion in revenue, while keeping sales and marketing spend under 15% of revenue. For all 20 years we've been in business.”
Assertion Supported
Halligan: HubSpot improved its net dollar retention from 75% to 110%
“Like if you look at HubSpot back maybe in 2012 when you wrote that article, like our customer dollar retention was probably 70%, and our upsell was maybe five, so we were 75% total. And now that seventy's gone to plus or -90%, and so the customers are much hap…”
Assertion Partly supported
Mailchimp scaled without any sales or customer success teams
“We've never had any kind of sales or customer success ever.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: LPs Have Put on the Brakes for Venture Funds Raising
“Investors, LPs in venture funds have basically put on the brakes. And so any fund that is trying to raise right now is having a pretty hard time for the most part.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Sequoia Redesigned Fund Structure After Realizing Selling Early Sacrificed Returns
“Well, that's, I mean, that's why Sequoia went to this new fund structure, is because they did the analysis, and they showed that by selling too early, they had left a lot on the table.”
Prediction Held up
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Prediction Held up
Pepper: LPs will allocate less to VC and prioritize re-ups
“Those marks are going to be tough in the next couple of quarters. So yes, I think like all of us, LPs are reassessing the environment, trying to figure out what to do, And my guess is that they'll do what many others are doing, which is retrench a bit. And my …”
Assertion Supported
Schuck: ZoomInfo Operates at Roughly a 'Rule of 80'
“The rule of 40 is like a rule of 80 today.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bedecarre: SoMa office leasing rebounded to 9.6M square feet in 2021
“In Soma, as we define it, apples to apples to what I'm about to share 8.2 million square feet of office was leased. In twenty-twenty that sunk down below six. In twenty-twenty-one it was 9.6 million square feet.”
Assertion Supported
Bedecarre: 81% of top 160 YC companies adopted hybrid work models
“We did a study of the top 160 YC, most valuable YC companies
published last year 81% of them are going hybrid in some form or fashion.”
Assertion Supported
Brown: Data Shows Freelancers Upskill More Frequently Than Captive Employees
“And so we also see that in the data, professional freelancers actually do more to upskill themselves constantly than captive employees do. That's just a fact.”
Assertion Supported
Neo4j's $325M Series F is the largest investment round in database history
“We just raised a three hundred and twenty five million dollar series F, which actually is the largest investment in database history”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: 70% of Salesforce's new bookings come from existing base
“70%. 70%. That's the whole story. Think about that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sloan: Personalizing sales outreach increases connection rates by up to 300%
“We have 5000 customers that run on the sales loft platform, and they're sending millions of interactions every single day, and we know if somebody actually takes the time to personalize their emails and their phone calls, that they're increasing their connecti…”
Assertion Supported
55% of buyers decide on $20K+ software in under three months
“55% of buyers say that they need less than three months to make a decision of 20,000 dollars or more.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: 25% of BVP Cloud Companies Grow 100%+ at $100M ARR
“In the BVP Cloud, which I think maybe LaunchSharkly was in, 25% of them are growing more than a hundred percent at a hundred million ARR.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Canva and other private cloud companies will cross $1B ARR
“There are private cloud companies that now have line of sight, or in Canva's case and a few others, will be crossing the billion dollar ARR mark while still private.”
Assertion Supported
D'Onofrio: Cloud 100 average multiples grew from 9x to 34x
“The average cloud 100 company, so the top cloud companies in the world at any one moment, had a nine X ARR multiple in 2016, increasing 270% until 2021, where it earned a 34 X multiple.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Cloud will become dominant delivery model for all software in 3 years
“And we do believe that within the next three years, cloud will become the dominant delivery model for all of software in this enabled cloud first world.”
Assertion Supported
HubSpot's partner ecosystem generates $5B alongside its $1B software revenue
“So our channel, like we do a billion in revenue, our channels by, if you add in the partners, it's five billion.”
Assertion Supported
Campbell: Improving monetization or retention 1% has a 4-8x revenue impact
“If you improve your revenue per customer, your monetization, or your overall retention by about one percent, you're actually going to see about a four to eight X impact on your revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Flexport achieved in five years the revenue Expeditors reached in fifteen
“In five years, we did, it took them their first 15 years to get to our revenue number”
Assertion Supported
Tejada: PagerDuty leadership is gender balanced and 65% immigrant
“Our leadership team is gender balanced. That was not easy to do. 65% of our leadership team is born outside the U.S.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: The 2020 market crash is the fastest 30% decline in history
“This by contrast is the fastest 30% plus decline by the broad market in history. I mean, this beats the great depression, the oh, wait, the dot com, et cetera.”
Assertion Supported
Perret: Plaid fought a patent lawsuit for 2.5 years as an eight-person startup
“When we were an eight person company, we actually got sued for patent infringement on a handful of patents that under today's patent standards are not patents. So for example, passing financial data via an API. In that case all of Silicon Valley infringes on, …”
Assertion Partly supported
Cummings: Qualtrics scaled to $500M ARR without primary balance sheet capital
“Ryan Smith from Qualtrics, and he told the amazing story of going from zero to five hundred million of revenue
And not requiring any primary capital. Five hundred million in recurring revenue, and they never raised any money that went to the balance sheet.”
Prediction Held up
Cummings: SalesLoft will reach a $1B unicorn valuation within two years
“And so now, seven years later, SalesLoft has over 400 employees, has raised over seventy-five million dollars of venture capital, and in the next two years, if not sooner, my prediction is that they will be a unicorn that you'll be able to read about on TechCr…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Schultz: New Relic will hit $1 billion revenue by fiscal 2022
“We've communicated to the street, for example, that,
Will be a billion dollars in revenue by the end of our fiscal 22.”
Assertion Supported
Prins: Legacy bank systems still process 85% of electronic payments
“I think if you look at payments in general, probably 85% of all electronic payments out there are currently still processed by banks, old systems. That's all out there to be To be replaced with something better.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Public cloud industry will cross $1T market cap in a few years
“And if you extrapolate this, take 10, take a third off the growth rate, 10 full points of CAGR, we still have a line of sight to crossing that trillion dollar milestone in the next few years as an industry.”
Assertion Supported
First Salesforce equal pay audit adjusted salaries for almost as many men
“That first year we did the audit, we almost paid as many men as we did women to balance the salaries, and no one actually gets a pay cut.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: Qualtrics reached $50M in sales with zero PR or media
“For the first 10 years we didn't do one media interview and we got to fifty million in sales. Think about that. Right? Not, not one media interview, not one press release.”
Assertion Partly supported
Cowboy Ventures: 90% of Unicorn Startups Never Pivoted
“Cowboy Ventures also found, and I'm plagiarizing their stuff that once they were in the Unicorn Venture, 90% of those startups never pivoted, and a hundred percent of those startups were always above the Mendoza line, the escape velocity trajectory.”
Assertion Supported
Columbia study: 21 of 22 wealthy exited founders were depressed
“So there was a study, ah, ah, by Columbia Business School of 22 entrepreneurs who all exited their businesses and made ten million or more personally from it. So in other words, success. 21 out of the 22 were depressed after having that success.”
Assertion Supported
Shen: Cloud software investment quadrupled in six years, taking 50% of VC
“If you look at what's been invested in cloud software, it has literally quadrupled in a six year time period and represents about 50% of total venture capital funding”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Stripe and Adyen will be multi-billion dollar successors
“Companies like Stripe and Adyen will certainly be multi-billion dollar successors.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lawson: Twilio has never killed or deprecated an API it built
“We've killed the teams, but maintain the products. So we find another home internally for the product to live. We have never killed an API that we've ever built.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Atlassian monetized its AI agent and drove its stock up
“Atlassian just launched. They finally were able to really monetize their AI agent and it's crushed their stocks up.”
Assertion Supported
Drumright: Harvey is deployed in over 60% of the Am Law 100
“We're in 60 plus percent of AMLA 100. We're in Fortune 500.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Klaviyo captured approximately 80% market share in e-commerce marketing
“That's a brutal oversimplification, but if HubSpot, there's a parallel universe for me to be in e-commerce and Klaviyo had like, 80% market share.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Gamma's launch tweet went viral after Paul Graham threw shade
“We got Paul Graham to respond, throwing a little shade at us and the tweet ended up going viral.”
Assertion Contradicted
Salyers: Claude offers far more native connectors than Replit
“Claude has a lot more connectors than Replit does, like native, right? Like, Replit, you have to build a lot of connectors.”
Assertion Supported
Madonna, Snoop Dogg, and Will Smith Use Higgsfield for Fan Engagement
“But also there is a strong adoption by creator economy with people like Madonna, Snoop Dogg, Will Smith using Higgs field just to create engagement across their audience.”
Prediction Held up
Customers Will Pay Higher Prices for Canva as It Becomes Agentic
“Now people are going to start paying more for Canva as Canva gets more gentic with two point O.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Shopify data showed the pandemic software surge ended by summer 2020
“The twenty-twenty-one buying boom didn't end until Q one or Q two of twenty-twenty-two, but that's because they're a lag. If you go back and look, for example, at Shopify data and Shopify was very public. Shopify said in the summer of twenty-twenty, this is ov…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Databricks generates over $5B in revenue with 50-60% growth
“Five point something in billion re-accelerating at 50 or 60% growth.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Twilio's Growth Accelerated to 20% Over 18 Months Due to AI
“They're using Twilio's APIs, and boom, growth goes from four percent, or six, to 20% in 18 months. That's an epic turnaround for a public company at this scale.”