The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 699 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: ElevenLabs recently crossed $350 million in revenue
“Great, but 11 labs just crossed three hundred fifty million.”
Adams: Intercom's AI product Fin is close to $100M ARR
“You will grow to like a hundred million in AR or very quickly. Finn's on that path, very close to it.”
Lemkin: Marc Benioff has 2,000 Salesforce employees building Agentforce
“That's why Asian force has to win. That's why Mark has 2000 people working on it.”
Lemkin: Half of Enterprise Software Budget Growth Absorbed by Price Hikes
“Of this record budget increase, according to Gardner, which I'll show you, half is going into price increases, right? A few years ago, not everybody increased price to seven or eight percent every year. Now everyone's doing it to fatiguing their base. So half …”
Lemkin: 30% of new enterprise software spend goes to new AI tools
“And 30% of it is going into new AI tools that they're bringing in. It doesn't leave much left for all the rest.”
Lemkin: AI Video App Higgsfield Scaled to $100M Revenue This Year
“I'm a small investor in a video app called Higgs field. I, you know, I just thought they'd get a million dollars on black Friday and already got to a hundred million this year doing video and they have tons of competition.”
Gartner: Software Spend Growth Projected to Reaccelerate to 15.2% in 2026
“This is, and if they're predicting it's going to reaccelerate to 15.2 for software, 9.8% overall for it.”
OpenAI deploys HIPAA-regulated AI technology across UCSF
“We now have in America, it's HIPAA, I'm not sure if it's the same out here, but a HIPAA regulated version of our technology, and we are already selling this to physicians, to doctors, UCSF, it's a top leading hospital in America. Every single person there has …”
Lemkin: Zendesk automates 60-80% of enterprise support versus 20% for self-serve
“With our top Customers at Zendesk, we can automate 60 to 80% of support and related interactions. Okay. Makes sense. They train them for months, sometimes for months at Zendesk for their big customers. For our Self Survey AI, it's 20%.”
Marc Benioff Is Envious of Palantir's Forward Deployed Engineering Model
“He said, this is the number one thing he was jealous of Palantir was one of it was how, how, how, how well they charge their customers, but he was most jealous of what they've done in forward deployed engineers. He said, what I would love at Salesforce is that…”
Lemkin: Replit Grew From $1M to $150M ARR This Year
“You know, Replit's one to a hundred and fifty million this year.”
Lemkin: Filevine Reached $3B Valuation Through AI Reacceleration
“Now it's worth three billion and it's accelerating.”
Lemkin: Drift security breach leaked Salesforce data from Cloudflare and Zscaler
“Poor drift, which sales off bot and Clary bot had a massive security breach and leaked cloudflare security data Z scalers, I mean, Salesforce data, cloudflare, Salesforce data, Z scalers, Salesforce data, tons of the cloud leader Salesforce data was all leaked…”
Lemkin: Dropbox maxed out its global market with 18.2M paid customers
“And he has 18.2 million paid customers now, but you know what it turns out? That's the whole world for him. Like it was crazy. And then for it's 18.2, because he literally has maxed out the global market share for what he has.”
Awotona: Calendly has never cut free tier features since 2014
“Besides then, I don't think we've ever taken anything away from the free plan. Yeah, I think we've all. Yeah, I don't think we've ever taken anything away from the free plan. We've only made the free plan more generous. I'm sure somebody will test my memory, b…”
Biestman: ServiceTitan actively prepared for a Q1 or Q2 2022 IPO
“We were actually in the process of trying to take the company public. In Q one or Q two of 20, 22.”
LLM Output Quality Deteriorates at Million-Token Context Sizes
“They claim million tokens, ten million tokens. When you start going up to that size of input. The quality deteriorates on the output”
Rangan: 40% of HubSpot's ARR is consistently influenced by partners
“And for HubSpot, 40% of our ARR Has been influenced by partners. That is, either they are bringing us leads or they are co-selling with our sales team and helping them close. Those two are what we call as influenced. And if there are HubSpot partners here, tha…”
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Choi: Share price appreciation strongly correlates with cumulative dollar growth
“On the left here, we see a regression that charts the share price depreciation from IPO to today versus how much revenue has increased in dollar amounts from IPO to today. And you'll see here that the R spread value is, 0.74, which is fight high and applying a…”
Lemkin: AI investments represent the majority of venture capital in 2025
“The majority of investing, if 44% in 2024, already the majority in 2025 is into AI and AI native investments.”
Lemkin: HubSpot is currently not charging customers for AI agents
“When I talked with Brian Halligan the other day, I didn't realize Dharmesh right now HubSpot isn't charging for their agents.”
Lemkin: HubSpot Saw Word-of-Mouth as Top Customer Source Up to $1B
“Word of mouth is ultimately the only way you can build a great product in SaaS. HubSpot had a slide they used to put in their investor decks until a million, a billion in revenue. Go to an older SaaS store post for five interesting learnings for HubSpot to a b…”
Lemkin: Rippling CEO Parker Conrad Actively Recruits Failed Founders for Leadership
“Parker Conrad loves to hire failed founders to run his divisions. Like his little five products, he gets a failed or a modestly successful founder because they have a reason, right?”
Lemkin: Dialpad Grew From $200M to $300M ARR on AI Boost
“Dialpad went from two hundred million last year to already three hundred million AR this year on an AI boost.”
Lemkin: Only three SaaS companies have IPO'd since 2021
“If we look at the SaaS IPOs we've had, and there's only been three since twenty-twenty-one, only three IPOs, all time low.”
Lemkin: Over 70% of Monday.com customers are non-tech
“Over 70% of Monday's customers are not tech. They're selling to churches and normal businesses. They're growing 34% in a billion in AR, while Asana, which mostly sells to tech, if you see on the right, is only growing 10%.”
Dholakia: Dario Amodei Revealed Model Coding Abilities Were Emergent, Not Designed
“Dario said on that panel, That they discovered that the models could code. Like it wasn't a design requirement. It wasn't an intentional, the model. It had the capability. It figured out how to do it.”
Lemkin: Tech industry hiring still far outpaces tech layoffs
“There are far more hiring going on in tech even today than layoffs.”
Lemkin: Brex Laid Off 20% at $250M–$300M in Revenue
“And that's why even great companies like Brex just announced they had to lay off 20% at 253 hundred million in revenue.”
Lemkin: OpenAI conducts annual tender offers paying engineers millions
“OpenAI for engineers does tender offers every year, where you make millions of dollars a year from working in Open.”
Lemkin: 70% of Klaviyo's Revenue Comes from Shopify Customers
“Klaviyo, which was the only IPO of this year is marketing just for e-commerce. In fact, Klaviyo really is just marketing only for Shopify customers. 70% of Klaviyo's almost one billion in revenue only not only comes from e-commerce, it only comes from Shopify”
Successful SaaS Startups Consistently Hit a Growth Plateau Around $15M ARR
“We looked at all the data of our companies over a decade. Even the successful ones hit this thing that we call the growth plateau. Around fifteen million ARR, you can see in the data, and again, these are the successful companies that made it through. They hit…”
OpenAI finished training GPT-4 in August 2022, holding it six months for safety
“We actually finished training GPT-IV in August last year, but we waited a little while before releasing it. When we first tried it out, we were all quite flabbergasted by how powerful it was, and we decided to sit on it almost six months to make sure that it w…”
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be a monster IPO and trade over $10B
“I really think all the VCs are gonna get excited about Klaviyo. It's gonna be a monster IPO. I think it'll trade over to ten billion.”
Half of 2023 Seed-Stage SaaS Startups Raised Pre-Revenue
“At the seed stage, as you can see here, approximately half of them were pre-revenue, while the other half had some ARR, anything between just a couple of 100,000 dollars Up to about a million or even 1.5 million.”
Dines: UiPath moved from $400M burn to cash flow neutral in 2020
“We turned guys from four hundred million burn to cash flow neutral in just one year. It's almost unheard of. While growing 80%.”
Jones: Wiz is transitioning to a 100% channel sales model
“Like we announced earlier this year, we're transitioning from a kind of hybrid direct channel model to a hundred percent channel. That's a result of how our customers are telling us they want to buy.”
G2: Only One in Three Buyers Primarily Trusts Vendor Websites
“Only one in three buyers actually looks at a vendor's website and says that this is the information source that I trust the most, and that's a big challenge for vendors, because typically your website is your channel to the market.”
G2: 57% of Software Contracts Are Now Six Months or Less
“57% of software contracts now are six months or less.”
G2: 48% of Enterprise Buyers Now Pay for SaaS via Credit Card
“53% of buyers most often now are buying SAS with a credit card, and the enterprise is coming up pretty quickly as well. 48% of people in the enterprise say they most often buy with a credit card.”
Atlassian assigns account managers to only 5,000 of its 250,000 customers
“So of those 250,000 customers, we really only cover, call it five to 6000 of those with an account manager.”
Bhagat: Millennials and Gen Z now make up 65% of B2B buyers
“The majority of B to B buyers today are millennials and Gen Z, in fact, 65%, and most of them don't want to talk to sales.”
Halligan: HubSpot improved its net dollar retention from 75% to 110%
“Like if you look at HubSpot back maybe in 2012 when you wrote that article, like our customer dollar retention was probably 70%, and our upsell was maybe five, so we were 75% total. And now that seventy's gone to plus or -90%, and so the customers are much hap…”
Lee: LPs Have Put on the Brakes for Venture Funds Raising
“Investors, LPs in venture funds have basically put on the brakes. And so any fund that is trying to raise right now is having a pretty hard time for the most part.”
Lee: Sequoia Redesigned Fund Structure After Realizing Selling Early Sacrificed Returns
“Well, that's, I mean, that's why Sequoia went to this new fund structure, is because they did the analysis, and they showed that by selling too early, they had left a lot on the table.”
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Pepper: LPs will allocate less to VC and prioritize re-ups
“Those marks are going to be tough in the next couple of quarters. So yes, I think like all of us, LPs are reassessing the environment, trying to figure out what to do, And my guess is that they'll do what many others are doing, which is retrench a bit. And my …”