The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 606 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 124 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Siegel: New large-scale gas power plants will not arrive before 2030
“Large scale gas is a 20, 30 plus new resource.”
Most nuclear developers will miss DOE's July 2026 criticality milestone
“I don't think a lot of reactors really are on pace for that July fourth milestone because it's an extremely aggressive milestone, and I think it's a little unfair to the nuclear industry actually to sort of set these very aggressive milestones when the reality…”
First advanced nuclear reactor will supply US grid power by 2032
“I'm pretty bad at making predictions, but I would be surprised if by 20 32 we haven't seen Real new advanced reactor electrons on the grid. There may not be many, and it'll probably be just one reactor but it'll shortly thereafter be followed by, you know, a s…”
McGinnis: Rising electric bills will drive mass adoption of DIY plug-in energy
“The more that we see bills go up in the U.S., regardless of what the rules out there are, people are gonna go on Amazon, they're gonna start buying the stuff, they're gonna start plugging it in, and so I think this is coming one way or another, and it's really…”
McGinnis: US will deploy tens of gigawatts of plug-in DERs by 2036
“Again, if you look to Germany, like, doing a gigawatt in a handful of years in what is a much smaller, you know, country than ours, it wouldn't shock me to see tens of gigawatts deployed in the next five to 10 years in the US where that's actually making a mea…”
Burton: Substantially fewer renewables will come online in 2027 and 2028
“And so it really will be in the out years, 27 and 28, where we're going to see substantially less renewables coming online. So, so there's definitely going to be a slowdown.”
Bullard: Texas electricity demand will land closer to ERCOT's lower 2030 forecast
“The true number is,
Either somewhere in between or much closer to ERCOT's figure.
I mean, ERCOT has the reason for demand, supply balancing, and upkeep, and everything else to get it really, really accurate in energy terms.
But the transmission service prov…”
Siting distributed edge compute will become easier than 1GW data centers
“I think finding capacity there may eventually become easier than finding the next thousand megawatts.”
80% of AI inference compute will move to the edge by 2035
“So I would say that we could be getting 80% of our compute done locally and leaving 20% of the heavy lifting or the more esoteric, the more corner case compute for the data center cloud. That is, of course, excluding the training. The training will Continue to…”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen will beat fossil hydrogen costs by early 2030s
“Now, if you take our technology roadmap a little further out, and you think about scale and also improvements we have in our, coming in our technology, along with what we expect to see in terms of continued cost reduction in wind and solar, we think we can get…”
Lubershain: The nuclear industry cannot sustain a Cambrian explosion of reactor designs
“There just can't be a Cambrian explosion of new reactors. The, Industrial logic of the nuclear industry just doesn't lend itself to that. I think best case scenario, it's bad for the industry if you end up with, you know, four or five competing reactor designs…”
Lubershain: Geothermal deployment will not truly take off until the 2030s
“I think that the inflection is, is going to be much slower and happen over the next five years, and that geothermal will really be positioned to take off more so in the 20 thirties than in the late 20 twenties.
That's my bet at the moment.”
Sridhar: Politics will block taxpayer-funded grid expansions for hyperscalers
“Now, if the grid were to build excess capacity purely to meet this huge demand and expects the taxpayer to pay for it so the hyperscaler can benefit, That politics is never going to fly.”
Sridhar: Grid upgrades cannot match AI power demand within 5–7 years
“Realistically, over a five, six, seven year period, it cannot catch up with the demand base that exists out there.”
Sridhar: High-power AI data centers must adopt captive on-site power
“We are finally building high electricity intensity AI factories. These are, these data centers are AI factories. They have been the exception and not the rule. They are now going to have to follow the rule.”
Sridhar: Inference will account for 90% of AI power load within four years
“Three to four years from now, I predict that 90% of the load will be inference and 10% will be training, even though the 10% in training then will be significantly larger than the 90% training today.”
Sridhar: Data centers will shift to 800-volt DC architecture
“The second pain point that they are working on as we speak is shifting the mindset to an 800 volt DC bus going into Iraq. Let me explain this to you. When you are a large power plant that produces 50 megawatts, 500 megawatts worth of power, because so much pow…”
Sridhar: Carbon capture will scale before green hydrogen for power generation
“Carbon capture at scale, hands down, for electricity generation.”
Kann: Data centers will partner with DER aggregators for grid capacity
“We're just starting to see this wave of announcements that are inexorably coming where there are going to be partnerships between hyperscalers or data center operators and the Third parties who do aggregations of DERs to deliver capacity to get data centers on…”
Battery storage will experience heavy supplier attrition similar to solar market
“And we expect to see something similar in the battery storage and other clean technologies, so that's why”
Dell: Base Power will deploy 100 megawatts monthly by late 2026
“We think by this time next year we'll be deploying on the order of a hundred megawatts a month.”
Kann: A US nuclear power renaissance will happen despite realistic timeline hurdles
“I'm now very optimistic about it. I'm realistic about the timeframe of it, I think. Which is, a lot of people are not, but I do think it's going to happen.”
Sivaram: 50-100 GW of AI Data Centers Cannot Be Built Without Flexibility
“We've got 50 to a hundred gigawatts of latent AI demand in the pipeline. It's just not gonna get built unless you have this capability of flexibility.”
Sivaram: AI data centers could consume 25% of US electricity by 2035
“Data centers, which today are about four percent of American energy consumption, AI data centers are about five gigawatts of load, grow to 12% by the end of the decade. AI data centers could be anywhere up to 50 or even more gigawatts, to 25% of American load …”
Chinese sodium-ion prices will undercut LFP by 2030, Mossberg predicts
“From the quotes and what we're hearing from the suppliers, not just cells, but also materials, we see a really low-risk pathway to the crossover point on price with LFP coming somewhere between twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-thirty out of China.”
Waiting 4-5 years cedes sodium-ion economy of scale to China
“So if we wait for, Four or five years to get into this game, we're going to be in a similar place that we are today on LFP, but, ah, today at least, you're not facing such a huge, ah, economy of scale challenge.”
Lubershain: New nuclear power will not scale in US until 2035+
“I don't think we're gonna see, we might see a little bit, you know, in the 2030, early 20 thirties time frame, but I think for the most part we're talking 2035 and beyond when we, when we'd actually have new nuclear power at scale coming online.”
Dumoulin-Smith: Solar leasing volume will rise in 2026 despite market contraction
“20, 26 is going to be, again, I would call it extraordinarily dynamic in a market which you could argue the market itself is going to decline in absolute terms. And yet for the incumbent leasing companies, arguably their volumes on a discrete basis are going t…”
Dumoulin-Smith: Loan-dependent residential solar installers will be phased out
“The individual installers who had been principally selling loans and had sidestepped this whole conversation to a large extent. That's really going to continue to be phased out, and in many ways, what I would argue to you is, like, when you look at, you know, …”
Dumoulin-Smith: Residential solar is no longer a growth sector
“It doesn't appear to be a growth sector anymore. It's a sector and, you know, overall volumetric decline potentially for several years in a row.”
Kelty: Tri-chemistry EV battery market will persist over the next five years
“So we see a future over the next five years where you're going to have these three chemistries.”
Sharp: Data centers built for spiky training runs will face major failures
“There's going to be some probably written about very big challenges and failures where they wanted a total capacity block, but they couldn't support the densification, or they were just building for the spike. It was very spiky, but the longer term utilization…”
Brough: Gas turbine lead times will not get much worse
“I actually don't think they're going to get much worse. I think all of the OEMs are, in fact, I know all the OEMs are working like crazy to try and shorten up their lead times, or at least make sure they don't get worse.”
Kann: The US lacks end-user demand for 1,000 new hyperscale data centers
“And I will state categorically, I don't think there will be a thousand new Hyperscale data centers in the United States anytime soon. I don't think there's actually that much demand for it.”
Hoyland: Geothermal will add more firm capacity than clean competitors by 2035
“And so in terms of adding low-cost, firm, renewable energy in the next five to 10 years, we really think there's a chance to add more with geothermal than any other competitive form.”
Smit: Cook Islands seabed mining is 2 to 4 years from production
“We probably two to four years away from first production is, is where we are in the cooks.”
Smit: Ocean Minerals project will yield ~$500M annual free cash flow
“The mining system CAPEX is around five hundred million dollars you know, the processing plant probably around two billion dollars but what,
For that investment, do you get in return for your project? So, you know, our project is in anywhere between three and f…”
At least three or four advanced nuclear reactor developers will succeed
“I'm very comfortable that, there's going to be, you know, probably three or four at least that are going to make it through that part of it that will be successful in the long term.”
Light water reactors deploy in early 2030s; non-light water in late 2030s
“The early thirties is the light water reactors, and the late thirties is when we'll see commercially more of the non-light water reactors coming to fore.”
Nuclear plant development timelines will fall from eight to five years
“I do see a path by which you get down to, from the seven to eight years, we're looking at the first ones, to getting down to five or six years, which to me really makes a game changer when people have their planning horizons.”
Mature SMR capital costs will reach $10,000 per kilowatt
“Once you get down the curve, we're probably, you know, 10,000 dollars a kilowatt, so if you have a 600 megawatt plant, that'd be about six billion dollars. The first one might be, you know, 15, 20% more than that.”
Schroepfer: Well-funded tech companies will build massive power capacity globally
“Underhyped in the sense that I like Respectfully disagree with Nick, which is just look at NVIDIA's earning calls. Like people are buying those chips and powering them up. So, and I think companies are, I spent a lot of time being incredibly creative about fin…”
Schroepfer: Economically viable fusion will produce history's largest companies
“And so I think this is a very binary thing, that if we can actually hit unit economics that are competitive in fusion, It'll create the largest companies we've ever seen.”
Schroepfer: Nature-based carbon removal will hit sub-$100/ton surprisingly fast
“I think we will be shocked at how fast, low cost, particularly nature-based carbon removal systems, and when I say nature-based, I don't mean planting trees. I mean, enhanced rock weathering. I mean, ocean alkalinity enhancement. I mean, biochar. These are sys…”
Gariman: China will increasingly weaponize rare earth export controls for geopolitical leverage
“And my strong belief is the process for export control will be utilized a bit more in the future. And this will basically signal again that China is not really reliable on sourcing of rare earth magnets in the future as we go forward because they will use it a…”
Waters: SMRs will not be a viable power source until the mid-2030s
“The challenge there is that between permitting and technology development that needs to happen, you're probably talking about, you know, mid 20 thirties before you see that become a real play.”
LFP battery pricing could drop to $25 per kWh within years
“There's a decent likelihood we'll continue to see pricing go down. You know, I've heard some claims that you could see it go down as far as, you know, from 50 dollars down to even 25 dollars over the course of the next couple of years. I think it's realistic t…”