Andy Lubershain of Energy Impact Partners discusses whether the nuclear renaissance will see dozens of Gen-IV/SMR reactor designs or consolidate around a few winners.
Opinion
Lubbershane: New gas plants are the only near-term option for gigawatt loads
“I mean, if you do need to serve gigawatt scale new loads within, like, let's say the next three, maybe even up to five years, it's really hard to find, to think of another option that will really work, especially if that's, you know, more than very low capacit…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Lubershane: Retail electricity prices will outpace inflation, driving broader inflation
“I have a very high degree of confidence that moving forward, because as you said, all this stuff is, is leading indicators prices are going to rise faster than inflation overall, and because electricity is sort of a Foundational good for the economy. They'll a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubershane: Multi-year data center growth will force large-scale off-grid power adoption
“And if this data center boom continues for longer than the next three to five years, if it's really a robust trend that is gonna, you know, be, Decade plus, you know, for the foreseeable future, then I don't see any other option besides going to something like…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubershain: Geothermal deployment will not truly take off until the 2030s
“I think that the inflection is, is going to be much slower and happen over the next five years, and that geothermal will really be positioned to take off more so in the 20 thirties than in the late 20 twenties.
That's my bet at the moment.”
Assertion Supported
Lubershain: Ford is moving ahead with $3B Michigan CATL-licensed plant
“Ford has basically said, we're moving ahead with this three billion dollar battery plant in Michigan, where they're licensing lithium iron phosphate technology from CATL, the Chinese battery giant.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2034
Lubershain: New nuclear power will not scale in US until 2035+
“I don't think we're gonna see, we might see a little bit, you know, in the 2030, early 20 thirties time frame, but I think for the most part we're talking 2035 and beyond when we, when we'd actually have new nuclear power at scale coming online.”