The Ledger, every show

“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”

“I explicitly told Lip Bhutan. He had never talked to the guy because it was like four layers down. The company has like absurd amounts of hierarchy. It's like four layers down. He goes and talks to the guy and he's out, right?”

“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”

“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's clawed for, but it's not in the thinking mode.”

“The theme here is that all, like, there's multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys, hey, yeah, yeah, our next model's not gonna be open source, we're gonna license it to you. So open is, is dying quickly, unfortunately.”

“I love token maxing. I think anyone who doesn't token max is going to get left behind. I think all this token budgeting stuff is, is loser mentality. If you're token budgeting hardcore, then your people are not going to learn the new workflows and then they're…”

“I think other folks will start to reckon with the fact that, huh, If this person can do the work of five to 10 to 15 people using quad code, then all of a sudden I should probably cut people.”

“Anthropic has gone from nine billion revenue to what they're at, 35, forty billion. Now probably by the time this airs, 40, forty-five billion. Who knows? ARR.”

“So ultimately what they've done, even if you assume all incremental compute they've gotten has gone towards inference, their margins are at a floor of 72%. In reality, some of that incremental compute they've got probably went to research and development and m…”

“But the shitty SaaS startup and SF who is using Claude to generate, you know, their software product is not necessarily actually creating a ton of value, and therefore they're gonna get priced out of tokens soon enough.”

“There's people who have argued GPUs full lives are less than five years. Complete nonsense. There are clusters now re-signing three or four year old hopper clusters re-signing for three or four more years. There's a 100 clusters that are re-signing for another…”

“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”

“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”

“First of all, Sam Altman and Dario have to stop getting on interviews. They're so uncharismatic. I don't know what they're doing. Every interview they do is like, wow, normal people are gonna hate you even more.”

“What I think is most likely is that there is some sort of political coup or action. That destabilizes Taiwan in some way but doesn't actually, doesn't necessarily lead to an invasion, a full-scale invasion, and so sort of this is the best of the both worlds fo…”

“China, China has by far the most advanced supply chain in semiconductors if you just look at China itself, right?”

“Anthropic doesn't just add two billion dollars of revenue in one month. You know, with, without having, you know, huge demand and they're doing it at positive margins, right?”

“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”

“And I think that's gonna be, like, the hottest button issue of, like, the next election, right? If not the midterms, right? And it seems obvious to me that, like, any party that wants to win should just become the anti-AI party.”

“I don't know what a venture capitalist views as like likely chances of succeeding, but I think all of them are less than one percent.”

“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”

“But without AI, China definitely will rise to be the global hegemony. They're just gonna outrun America.”

“This is Claude code now. You don't need junior analysts.”

“Just like a lot of companies have stopped hiring L four engineers because it's useless.”

“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”

“Where you see Anthropic have gone from, like, what, like, a billion or less of revenue to seven to eight by, you know, already, and it's the fastest revenue ramp we've ever seen for anything of this capacity.”

“Digital god is like, well, one, I, like, kind of believe in embodiment, and, like, you need non-digital god, you need a physical, you need the capability of, like, having touch and Feel and all that to truly be, ah, have an experience like humans and be smarte…”

“I think if we didn't have the AI boom, the U.S. Probably would be behind China and no longer the world hegemon by the end of the decade, if not sooner.”

“I know a lot of people's PMs are like, oh, you can't invest in TSMC because geopolitical risk, and it's like, no, dude, you can't invest in fucking Apple.”

“Like, Yann LeCun and, like, these kind of people who are AI bears. I respect them. I like what they, like, their ideas. I think they're completely wrong, but, you know.”

“It's kind of poetic that everything's gone full circle and Intel's sort of crawling to NVIDIA.”

“I think they'll be able to ramp. I think it'll take a little bit longer and there will be, like, a sort of a gap in between where China probably backtracks and says it's fine.”

“The reason why Apple hasn't done anything interesting in like, you know, nearly a decade is, is, you know, they've got a not visionary at the head. Tim Cook's greatest supply chain. And they're just plowing the money into buybacks.”

“With OpenAI, it's not, and so there's gotta be some, like, error bars as you go further out in terms of, like, Will OpenAI exist in 28, 29 30, and will they be able to pay the 80 plus billion dollars a year that they've signed up to Oracle with, right?”

“If you look at the revenue ARR chart, it's like, Cloud code in, like, three months has surpassed them, and, like, cursor, you know, easily surpassed them, and then, like, even, like, companies like Replin or, like, and Windsurf slash Cognition are, like, gonna…”

“Microsoft, their custom silicon kind of sucks but the other three, they're really upping their orders massively over the last year. You know, Amazon is making millions of Tranium. Google's making millions of TPUs. TPUs clearly are like a hundred percent utiliz…”

“Their ROIC is, like, extremely high on CPU and storage, and to assume that it can, like, translate over to GPUs is, is a bit of a fallacy, which is why a lot of these companies are moving in, right?”

“There's a reason why Microsoft's hardware programs suck, right? Because they don't understand models at all.”

“Why is AMD not catching up despite being awesome at hardware engineering? Well, yeah, they're bad at networking, but also they suck at software and they can't do hardware software co-design.”

“Microsoft is not building Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”

“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”

“I would say every semiconductor company in the world sucks at software except for NVIDIA, right?”

“AMD is really good, but they're missing software. AMD has no clue how to do software, I think. They've got very few developers on it. They won't spend the money to build a GPU cluster for themselves so that they can develop software.”

“Google's brought in a level of reliability that NVIDIA GPUs don't have. You know, the dirty secret is to go ask people what the reliability rate of GPUs is in the cloud or in a deployment. It's like, oh God, it is not, they're reliable-ish, like, but like, esp…”

“I think Meta and Microsoft may even take their free cash flows close to zero and just spent.”

“In my opinion, I think that's a little bit spicy, but yeah, it's like training costs are irrelevant, right? Like GPT-IV, right? Like 20,000 A-one hundreds. That's like, I know it sounds like a lot of money.”

“Unless, unless you're fine tuning for on device use, I think fine tuning current existing models, especially the smaller ones is a useless waste of time, right?”

“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”