Patel: New AI chip startups like Etched have under 1% success chance
Dylan Patel · Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled” · Feb 5, 2026 · at 20:28
Dylan Patel (SemiAnalysis) assesses the commercial probability of success for new specialized AI chip startups like Etched, MatX, and Positron.
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“I don't know what a venture capitalist views as like likely chances of succeeding, but I think all of them are less than one percent.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
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