Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, explains how AI software automates data cleaning and financial modeling tasks previously done by entry-level analysts.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Patel: AI software industry could hit $100 billion ARR this year
“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: New AI chip startups like Etched have under 1% success chance
“I don't know what a venture capitalist views as like likely chances of succeeding, but I think all of them are less than one percent.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Huawei used shell companies to procure TSMC chips and Korean HBM
“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Without AI leadership, China will overtake the US as hegemon
“But without AI, China definitely will rise to be the global hegemony. They're just gonna outrun America.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Many tech companies have stopped hiring L4 software engineers
“Just like a lot of companies have stopped hiring L four engineers because it's useless.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Groq chips cannot cost-effectively perform general-purpose large model inference
“In a general purpose workload, crock. Grok doesn't work, right? You know, it can't train, it can't, you know, it can't inference really, really large models cost efficiently, right? You can't serve many, many, many users, but what it can do is it can go block,…”